The Sports Banter

Quick Super Bowl Recap

2012-02-06T00:33:00.001-05:00

-I was four points off in my predicted score (23-19 vs actual score of 21-17) yet somehow managed to lose money on the game. Par for the course right now.

-The Giants got hot at the right time and got some lucky breaks/bounces in the last month and a half of the season:

Week 15: Lost to the Washington Redskins for the second time this season.

After this game, tides turn.

Week 16: Victor Cruz breaks three tackles against the Jets and races 99 yards for a touchdown
Week 17: Cowboys fail to show up
Wild Card Round: Falcons fail on two quarterback sneaks on fourth and 1
Divisional Round: Packers wide receivers come down with a case of the drops
NFC Championship: Kyle Williams happens
Super Bowl: Wes Welker drops huge fourth quarter pass. So do Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez

Not taking anything away from the Giants at all because in sports you make your own breaks, but this was an impressive run.

-I can't put my finger on one memorable thing from this Super Bowl. Pretty boring from beginning to end. Even Eli seemed like a default choice for MVP.

-Eli is going to the Hall.

-Tom Coughlin might too.

-The Mario Manningham catch was pretty awesome, but if that doesn't happen in the Super Bowl, I have a hard time believing it makes a Top 50 list for best catches this season.

-In typical Bill Belichick fashion, he cuts a player the night before the game. Karma caught up to BB.

-Low class move by Belichick not to show for the post-game press conference too.

-I guess Gisele's email pleas for prayers didn't help Tommy Boy.

-Great stat from SI.com's Don Banks:

The last nine Super Bowls have all now featured seven-point games in the fourth quarter.

-Despite the Giants winning the Super Bowl, I have to say I'm glad this season wasn't ruined by the lockout.

_Best commercial for me: TaxAct.com's "Kid Peeing in the Pool"

-14 days until pitchers and catchers report. Seven months until more football (September 6th).

What Kind of World Am I Living In?

2012-02-05T17:32:00.004-05:00

A few weeks, a rumor was floating around that had the Mets shipping 3B David Wright to the Angels for OF Peter Bourjos. At the time and still today, I was and am appalled.

Wright is the face of the New York franchise. Since being plunked in the dome by Matt Cain, he hasn't been the same player, but he is still a productive middle-of-the-order bat that has the unfortunate task of playing for a weak team in a hitter's nightmare ballpark. In the past, I have advocated for him to be traded, but not for this little of a return.

Bourjos is a defensive-minded outfielder whose offensive value comes from putting the ball on the ground and hoping to beat throws to first. He has very little power and has not shown an ability to get on base consistently at the Major League level (granted, not a huge sample size with only 750 plate appearances but his minor league numbers won't blow you away either).


Is PB the soon-to-be face of the franchise in New York or bottom of the order hitter in Washington's lineup?

Even more troubling for me was FanGraph's Dave Cameron - a baseball mind that I respect - thought the Angels were the team that shouldn't make this deal. This seems like a classic case of saberists overvaluing defense. Defense is nice, but offense wins championships. Just ask the 2010 Mariners how well building an all-defensive team worked out for them.

Today in his weekly Sunday Baseball Notes column, Nick Cafardo mentions a rumor that has the Nationals trading John Lannan to the Angels for Bourjos saying:

Lannan, 27, is a terrific option as an end-of-the rotation starter now that Washington has signed Edwin Jackson. There is a lot of speculation that the Nationals will deal him to the Angels for center fielder Peter Bourjos, with Mike Trout on the way to play that position in Anaheim.

Using the transitive corollary, this would mean John Lannan and David Wright have the same trade value!?!?

What. Kind. Of. World. Am. I. Living. In.

Full disclosure: I played high school baseball with John Lannan. He was a great kid then and I have nothing against. Conversely, I have always rooted for him to have as much success as possible, and I hope he wins four Cy Young Awards.

But this trade stuff is full on crazy talk even if they are just rumors.

The Complete Opposite of Super Bowl

2012-02-03T06:00:00.000-05:00

I’m not going to bore you with how much my sports life sucksright now because that happened two weeks ago already. Hopefully, you took myadvice and made some money betting the AFC and NFC title games two Sundays ago.

Who am I rooting for this Sunday? First and foremost, I’mrooting for a defensive struggle (you will see why in a minute) and a verysloppy game. I haven’t decided yet which team I will support but at this pointI have to lean towards the Giants. Just can’t bring myself to cheer for BillBelichick in any game, ever.

Things I’ll be rooting for:

Under 55: Forreference, the over/under for the Saints/Lions game a few weeks ago was 54. Ofcourse, anything can happen and both offenses are capapble of singlehandedlyputting up 40+ points, but setting the number at 55 is borderline preposterous.The defenses are getting way too little respect for squads playing as well asthey have been in recent weeks.

Longest touchdown ofthe game under 49.5 yards: I’m feeling a game that has more field goalsmade than touchdowns scored so the (hopefully) few touchdowns scored just needto be from inside opponent territory.

Over 8.5 punts inthis game: I’m going all in on these defenses.

A tie score after 0-0:I think this will be a close game so I’m hoping at some point these teams willbe tied. 3-3, ideally.

Longest punt byZoltan Mesko over 53.5 yards & Longest punt by Steve Weatherford over 53.5yards: I finally found someone in this game to root for - the punters.

First TD NOT to be apassing TD: At 2/1, this seems like a good gamble. Maybe Ahmad or DannyWoodhead will scamper in from the 2-yard line.

Patriots scoreexactly 19 points: I couldn’t find a spot that would let me parlay bothteams’ final scores so I took the Pats scoring exactly 19 points at 55/1.

Final scoreprediction: Giants 23-19. I’ve had decent success predicting final scores (seesidebar of homepage) and hoping this run continues.

Upcoming Potential Blog Topics / Food for Thought

2012-01-26T22:27:00.000-05:00

Work has been incredibly busy over the last few weeks and clearly this blog has suffered. I'm not sure if I can hit all of these topics, but here are some questions I hope to answer in some upcoming posts:

-Is this legal with the new playoff OT rules in the NFL: the team receiving the opening kick drives down the field and converts a field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, can that team kick the ball out of their own end zone for a safety and end the game?

-How does Gregg Williams have a job?

-Why are left-handed starting pitchers so revered?

-John Lannan is in line for a $5m / season contract. Where did I go wrong? (Answering the previous question might help here.)

-If Sandy Alderson knew he wasn't going to re-sign Jose Reyes, why didn't he trade him when he had value before the deadline in July?

-Same question as previous, just replace "Jason Isringhausen" for Jose Reyes.

-Can Andrew Luck possibly live up to this hype?

-Are the Tigers really that good? Last I checked, Delmon Young is still penciled into the 5-spot of the lineup.

-Can we start calling Ponzi schemes by a new name: Boras schemes?

-Did you know my three favorite prospects in the 2012 NFL Draft are Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, and Brandon Boykin?

-Could James Dolan be any dumber? I love the fact that Time Warner is refusing to broadcast MSG. The only thing worth watching is the Knicks, and they are terrible right now. JD loses more leverage with every loss.

-How do you pass the time when your fantasy basketball team has been eliminated less than a month into the season?

-How long until a young American baseball player moves to the Dominican Republic, gains citizenship there, and signs for a lot more money than he would have gotten in the draft?

-Does T Rowe Price know the answers to the ridiculous questions they ask during their commercials? Does Southwest realize how stupid their flag-throwing baggage fee refs are? Can Pepsi Max never make another commercial?

-Does anyone know who Bruce Ellington is?

-How could I get fooled by Patrick Witt?

-Is Syracuse really going to fall apart without Fab Melo, a player that was laughably terrible last year when I saw him play live at the Garden? Remember this when filling out your brackets in March.

-More of a request than a question: Peyton, can you please not be Brett Favre II. If it's time to go, just ride off into the sunset.

-I don't care how bad AJ Burnett is. If the Yankees are willing to eat 90+% of his contract, why won't anyone take him? A team like the Padres or Mariners with huge ballparks couldn't use this guy?

Sometimes, Being a Sports Fan Sucks

2012-01-21T17:58:00.000-05:00

And this is absolutely one of those times.

I'm 28 years old. In my conscious sports fandom - basically since I was five years old - none of my favorite teams in any of the major sports has won their respective title. I have never been able to enjoy a championship, and it sucks.

Mets: Came closest in 2000 when they lost to the hated Yankees in the World Series. Should have won ithe World Series in 2006, but choked in the NLCS. Figure to be the worst team in the NL East for the next few years. Outlook: Dim for the next four years...at least.

Jets: Have not reached the Super Bowl in my lifetime. Lost in the AFC title game in each of the previous two seasons. Internal quarrels threaten to crumble the current team. Franchise quarterback turns out to be a fraud. Outlook: Dim for the next couple years.

Knicks: Lost 1994 and 1999 NBA Finals. Haven't won a playoff series since 2001. I purchased season tickets last year in the hopes they could sign LeBron. They didn't but made playoffs anyway. After being eliminated in the first round and throwing way too much money at Tyson Chandler, the Knicks decided to increase prices by 50% for this season. I declined to renew. Outlook: Dim for the next couple years.

Islanders: Perennial doormat of the Eastern Conference. Haven't won a playoff series since 1993. Outlook: Dim for the next four years...at least.

Not only do my teams perform poorly, but the teams I despise have been INCREDIBLE over this same timeframe.

The Yankees have won five World Series titles. The Giants have won two Super Bowls and might win a third this season, and the Patriots won three as well. Even the Rangers broke a 54-year Stanly Cup drought in 1994.

Am I jealous? Absolutely.

Things are just not looking bright for me. However, I'm going to spin this into a positive.

We all know when things are going badly, they usually go very badly. Based on the rankings of "how awful the Super Bowl would be if this ended up being the matchup" I will be able to determine who will win this weekend.

Acceptable: Ravens-49ers - The Harbaugh brother talk would get repetitive and boring but it will be easy to change the channel and/or simply tune it out. Chances of this matchup occurring: 10%.

Bad: Ravens-Giants / Patriots-49ers - In either of these scenarios, one of my despised teams would likely be favored. Chances of one of these matchup occurring: 50%.

Downright Awful: Patriots-Giants - A rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl would pit my least favorite teams in the sport against each other in a no-win game for me. Chances of this matchup occurring: 40%.

Gimme the Pats and the Giants this weekend. Fate wouldn't have it any other way.

***************************************************

A couple more NFL thoughts:

-Best thing that could have happened to the New Orleans Saints this offseason occurred this week: Gregg Williams took another job. I have no idea why this guy is a desired coaching commodity. If someone could explain it, I would appreciate it.

-Apparently, the Jaguars didn't watch the Falcons stink up the joint offensively in their playoff game two weeks ago in New York because they decided to hire Atlanta's offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey to be their next head coach. Expect a lot of QB sneaks in Jacksonville over the next two years...at which point MM will either be fired or this team will be in LA.

2012 NFL Mock Draft 1-20

2012-01-04T23:07:00.000-05:00

I like to get at least one mock draft before the ESPN and CBS guys do theirs. Here are picks 1 through 20 with a few comments mixed in.

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

2. St. Louis Rams: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - They need playmakers, and I am going on record as saying TR will be this draft's best player.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OL, USC - This seems like the most obvious spot for a trade as Washington, Miami, and others will need to jump ahead of Cleveland to have a shot at RGIII.

4. Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor - Colt McCoy, not the answer.

The Freak

5. Tampa Bay Buccanneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - Ronde Barber might play forever

6. Washington Redskins: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State -

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alson Jeffery, WR, South Carolina - Last year, I begged Jacksonville to trade up for either AJ Green or Julio Jones. Did they listen? Of course not. Did they suck this year with one of the most pathetic receiving corps the NFL has ever seen? Of course.

*8. Miami Dolphins: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

*9. Carolina Panthers: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - Floyd and college teammate Jimmy Claussen form one of the best QB-WR duos in the NFL...or something like that.

10. Buffalo Bills: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

*11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, OL, Stanford

*12. Seattle Seahawks: Mark Barron, S, Alabama - Seattle fans would love to see the Barron - Earl Thomas safety pairing for the next ten years.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OL, Stanford

14. Dallas Cowboys: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska - Eventually getting lit up by Eli Manning gets old, right?

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College - Might not look the part but one of the most productive seasons in college football history.

The anti-Mike Mamula

16. New York Jets: Riley Reiff, OL, Iowa - I mentioned it after Sunday's debacle, but this team needs help in a ton of places: offensive line, quarterback, wide receiver,

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia

18. San Diego Chargers: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

19. Chicago Bears: Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State - The heir apparent to Brian Urlacher? Maybe. He could learn a thing from BU.

20. Tennessee Titans: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Monday Mullet

2012-01-02T05:48:00.000-05:00

Dave Steib (kind of looks like David Wells facially)

The Jets Disappointing Season Ends in Appropriate Fashion

2012-01-01T17:41:00.002-05:00

Mark Sanchez sucks and needs to be replaced.

Wayne Hunter sucks and needs to be replaced.

Kyle Wilson sucks and needs to be replaced.

Santonio Holmes and Plax suck and need to be replaced.

I was way too optimistic about this team. Too frustrated to post a full blog here, but it is going to be a long offseason.

NFL: Week 17 Picks

2011-12-31T09:09:00.000-05:00

Jets +3

Titans -2

Ravens -1.5

Chiefs +3.5

Colts +4

Record: 34-40-6

NBA Season Preview

2011-12-27T21:57:00.000-05:00

Eastern Conference

1- Miami
2- Indiana
3- New York
4- Chicago
5- Boston
6- Philadelphia
7- Atlanta
8- New Jersey

Western Conference

1- Denver
2- LA Clippers
3- Dallas
4- Oklahoma City
5- Memphis
6- San Antonio
7- LA Lakers
8- Portland

NBA Finals: Clippers over Knicks

MVP: Dwyane Wade
Rookie: Ricky Rubio

Lastly, make sure you avoid Al Jefferson in your fantasy draft. This guy makes terrible offcourt decisions, like dating this 38 year old nut. This beauty was arrested last week on charges that she bit Al. Stay away from both of them.

Quick Thoughts

2011-12-27T21:49:00.006-05:00

*The Falcons were upset that the Saints called plays that allowed Drew Brees to set the all-time passing record last night? Instead of whining, stop the guy. Just because Sean Payton called the plays doesn't mean you have to let them be successful. Look in the mirror before complaining.

*The Mets are getting rid of their Class A team in the Gulf Coast League because it will cost them about as much money as they pay Jason Bay to play every three weeks. Bite nose, spite face.

*First it was TJ Ford enjoying the fruits of Croatia and now another heralded college point guard will be doing the same: Khalid El-Amin. Smart guys.

KEA, just as svelte as I remember him

*Maybe I'm old school but I am not a fan of all the flair NBA players are wearing these days. And, yes I know I sound like a greybeard when I say that. I would estimate that a quarter of the players in the league wear either two arm-sleeves or two knee pads with half of that total wearing both. No matter how much clothing you wear now, no one is forgetting about those short shorts of the 80's.

*I'm a little late to the game on this one, but it's a pretty cool article about paying NBA players based on their on-court production.

Monday Mullet

2011-12-26T08:19:00.000-05:00

Ugly man, beautiful mullet.

Just For Men pitchman Randy Johnson

NFL: Week 16 Picks

2011-12-24T12:34:00.000-05:00

Cowboys -1
49ers -2
Chargers +1
Bears +13
Falcons +6

Record: 34-36-5

Jacksonville's Conundrum

2011-12-23T13:19:00.000-05:00

Next week, the Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Indianapolis Colts in a seemingly innocuous season finale.

A closer look, however, will show this to be the most important game of the week. In fact, the future for a number of teams rests on the outcome.

First, the Jaguars. If they win this game, they will hand the Colts Stanford QB Andrew Luck. That means for the next 10-12 years, they will have to face Luck at least twice per season. A win for the Jags would also mean a drop from the fourth overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft to as low as tenth overall depending on the outcome of a slew of games these next two weeks.

Now, the Colts. A win in this game would likely cost them Luck. By my count, this would keep one person in the organization happy - Peyton Manning - and even that is a stretch as he won't be playing for too many more seasons and must understand the business of football by now.

Eyes in Minnesota and St. Louis will also be fixated on this riveting 2-13 vs 4-11* matchup. Within the last two seasons both the Vikings (Christan Ponder, 12th overall in 2011) and Rams (Sam Bradford, 1st overall on 2010) have spent high first round picks on franchise quarterbacks. While it's likely too soon to pass final judgment on how good these two are, it is widely believed, although not by this author, that Luck is the best quarterback prospect to come along in 20 years. Would either team be willing to take their chances with Luck?

*Assumes Tennessee will handle business in Week 16 against the Jaguars.
Lastly, the rest of the league. There might be a couple win-and-in games in Week 17 but the chances of a team which needs to win their last game just to get into the playoffs advancing very far is low. There are definitely counter-examples to this - like Green Bay just last season - but I'll stick to my thesis that the Jax-Indy game will be more meaningful a decade from now. Put more bluntly, no team winning a win-and-in game this season will advance to the Super Bowl.

As a gambler, I'm extremely curious what the line will be. It's a game that neither team wants to win and will be a great example of winning the war but losing the battle... or something like that. Where's Cadillac Williams when you need him?

Monday Mullet

2011-12-19T22:58:00.002-05:00

Terrible name for a pitcher, terrible hair for a human being

College Football: Bowl Picks Volume I

2011-12-19T21:59:00.001-05:00

12/20:

Florida International -4: This game is being played in St. Petersburg, FL so the crowd should be on the side of the Golden Panthers. FIU is also the better team in this matchup. They have playmakers on offense (T.Y. Hilton, Wes Carroll) and a top-20 defense in the nation. Marshall struggles to move the ball on offense, and they allow almost 90 more yards per game and they amass.

12/22:

Boise State -14: Are the Broncos disappointed to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl? Of course they are. However, they lost one game (by one point) all season and one game all of last season (by three points). Kellen Moore has accumulated more wins as a starting quarterback than anyone else in FBS history. He won't let this team throw in the towel. On the other side, we have an Arizona State team that seemingly cannot wait for this nightmare season to be over. After a 5-1 start, the Sun Devils skidded to a final record of 6-6. They have lost their last four games on just saw their coach get fired. I don't see the motivation.

12/27:

Western Michigan +3: Broncos WR Jordan White had more receiving yards this season the top four Boilermaker wide receivers combined. QB Alex Carder led a lethal aerial attack that averaged over 330 yards per game. On the flip side, the defense struggled to stop anyone with a pulse as they allowed over 430 yards and 28 points per game. This game is being played in Detroit so it can't be considered a home game for either team, but I think Western Michigan has the added incentive of trying to knock off the Big 10 squad.

Regular Season Record: 37-27-2 (PoW: 6-8; Upset: 7-7)
Bowl Record: 0-0

NFL: Week 15 Picks

2011-12-14T21:53:00.001-05:00

Three games under .500 with three weeks to play. Need to get there to save some face.

Chiefs +15
Seahawks +3.5
Chargers +2.5
Jets +3
Broncos +7

Record: 31-34-5

Monday Mullet

2011-12-12T05:56:00.005-05:00

Rod Beck, RIP

Week 14 Thoughts

2011-12-11T22:03:00.001-05:00

Time constraints are preventing me from writing a full "11 Things" article, but here are a few thoughts.

-Tim Tebow is Christ. Impossible to argue so don't even try.

-Marion Barber was put on this Earth to make Christ look good. He cost the Bears the game today by not going out of bounds with under two minutes to play. Not his fault. God made him do it.

God's Will, not Marion Barber's, be done

-During the Denver game, they showed a clip of kicker Matt Prater making a 70-yard field goal during pregame warmups. Would have been really cool to see him attempt one of those in the game.

-San Diego was one miracle away from being a game out of first place with three to play. Now, they are two games out and need help from either Buffalo or Kansas City in order to reach the playoffs. Can't see it happening.

-Ryan Succop's pathetic attempt at an onside kick (it went two yards) epitomizes how bad the Chiefs are. Man, that was ugly.

-The Jets took advantage of today's favorable schedule. They beat the last place Chiefs and then sat back and watched their closest wildcard competitors fall to each of their respective first place opponents: Cincinnati (lost to Houston), Tennessee (to New Orleans), and Oakland (to Green Bay).

-Early in the year, Detroit started slowly and was forced to win from behind. Today, that script was reversed. I'm excited to see what this offense can do when they are firing on all cylinders for all four quarters.

-If the Josh Freeman honeymoon wasn't over already, it is now. Tampa Bay is terrible.

-Raise your hand if you can figure out the Eagles or the Dolphins. Me either.

-The loss of Greg Jennings could be huge. On the bright side, the Packers really don't need him for five or six weeks.

-The 49ers ineptitude in the red zone today might have cost them the number two seed in the NFC. They have zero shot of beating New Orleans in the SuperDome so San Fran better not slip up the rest of the way.

-Good for Pats' offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien for calling out Tom Brady, who was in the midst of calling out wide receiver Tiquan Underwood after a red zone interception. That was a terrible throw, and it looked like Brady was blaming someone else.

-How cool would it be to have the reputation of being "the strongest man on the planet"? Cris Collinsworth bestowed that honor on Giants DT Linval Joseph.

-Speaking of the Giants, there was no volume on the television I was watching during the first quarter of tonight's game. I can't figure out why the JPP sack was ruled a safety. Romo was clearly out of the end zone when he was tossed backwards. If the referee ruled that Romo was choosing to run backwards, why was the play blown dead as soon as he fell down?

-James Harrison deserves to be suspended not just for his Thursday Night cheap shot against Colt McCoy but for the multitude of fine-earning hits he has made over the years, just like N-kong Suh.

-Seattle will beat St. Louis tomorrow night, 33-to-who cares.

What Are You Thinking, NBA Decision Makers?

2011-12-10T00:40:00.001-05:00

David Stern

You are the Commissioner of the National Basketball Association, not my Assclowns Fantasy League. What are you doing vetoing deals, especially a deal that seems to be fair for all parties involved. For my money, the Hornets would have actually made out better than the other teams involved, but who am I to say?

Neither the players nor the owners trust
you anymore. Time to go.

[Editor's Note: While we are at it, can't the Rockets and Lakers each send a second round pick to New Orleans so this trade can be processed? It won't solve our Commish issue, but at least we can all get on with our lives.]

Donnie Walsh

Walsh did a very nice job ridding the Knicks of their awful contracts, but I have two bones to pick with his recent work.

First, on April 28, 2011, New York re-signed Chauncey Billups to a one-year $14.2 million contract. Now, less than eight months later, Billups is being amnestied. This seems to be the white elephant in the room because I haven't heard anyone discuss the fact the team just threw all this money down the drain. To top it off, Billups is telling teams not to claim him through the waiver process in hopes he can double dip (get paid the full $14.2m from the Knicks plus whatever his next team agrees to pay him). In order to spite the Knicks, he has also reportedly discussed signing with the Miami Heat for the veteran's minimum, screwing the Knicks over yet again.

Second, Walsh just gave balky-backed Tyson Chandler a four-year $60m+ contract. Yes, the guy plays defense, something foreign in these NYC parts. But, are you really committing to TC instead of making a run at a legitimate franchise player next offseason? Is the Stat-Melo-Chandler trio good enough to win the East without a bona fide point guard? I just don't see it.

Daryl Morey

Morey is the Billy Beane of the NBA.

Vastly overrated "innovators" whose teams have
zero track record of any postseason success

On April 14, 2010, I wrote the following about the Rockets GM, and it still seems pretty accurate today.

As the Rockets' season comes to yet another disappointing close tonight, I am left asking myself a potentially blasphemous question: is Daryl Morey overrated?

On a personal level, I am enamored with Morey. I have met him twice while attending his MIT Sports Analytics Conference (each of the last two years) and came away extremely impressed both times. He's approachable, well-spoken, and genuinely likeable in a Seth Rogen kind of way. Bill Simmons christened him "Dork Elvis" for his popularity among statheads.

Professionally, Morey is credited with revolutionizing player analysis by using quantitative analysis to greatly supplement his and his scouts' views. Many in the industry believe him to be one of the game's brightest managerial stars.

In a recent edition of his "NBA Future Power Rankings Column" (Insider access required), ESPN's Chad Ford ranked the Rockets 10th, based largely on the team's "management." In fact, of all 30 teams, he rated Houston second best in this category. Granted, this category takes into account more than just the GM, but Morey clearly steers this ship.

So, where's the problem?

Simple. The performance of a GM's team, not his academic credentials (Morey received his MBA from MIT), should do the talking, and in this case, I am not wowed. Despite inheriting a 52-win team, Morey's teams have won only one playoff series in his three years.

Let's look at Morey's history.

Less than two weeks into his new role as front office boss in Houston, Morey fired head coach Jeff Van Gundy on May 18, 2007 (after the team's third first-round exit in four seasons under JVG) and replaced him with Rick Adelman. Aside from JVG's disastrous 2005-6 season, these two coaches have had virtually identical success in Houston. A lateral move for the most part - although ESPN greatly benefited since JVG has proven to be a great TV commentator.

Under Adelman, in the 2007-8 season, the Rockets finished with the sixth best record in the Western Conference and lost to the Jazz in the first round of the playoffs.

In the 2008-9 season, they finished with the fifth best record in the Western Conference and beat the Blazers in the first round of the playoffs before succumbing to the Lakers in the second round.

This year, they will not make the playoffs.

Morey might not have an open checkbook, but over the last three years, Houston has been in the top half of the NBA in terms of dollars spent on salary. Now, I understand injuries have played a role as Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have missed significant time over the last three years for a variety of ailments. But again, the mark of success in the NBA lies in a team's performance, namely its playoff performance, and Morey's squads have failed in this regard.

Has he made good moves (his draft history includes the likes of Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry)? Yes.

Has he made great moves (ripping off the Knicks and Kings at the 2010 trade deadline)? Absolutely.

In the end though, just because a General Manager uses numbers in an innovative way, hires a dozen interns, and gets a nickname from a famous sportswriter, it does not make him great at his job.

Bottom Line: Morey might turn out to be one of the game's all-time greats. Unfortunately, thus far, the team has not markedly improved since he took over three years ago. Until that happens and the team makes at least one deep run in the postseason, I believe it is premature to call him one of the game's best.

[The Rockets missed the playoffs again in 2010-11.]

This proposed three-team deal would see the Rockets ship off Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic, and at least one first round pick for Pau Gasol. Call me skeptical of yet another lateral move for a team stuck in neutral.

Dan Gilbert

All goodwill this guy amassed when LeBron pimped him and the city of Cleveland last summer has evaporated in one year. Why are you complaining about the Lakers getting CP3? It's good for the NBA and might offer opportunity to your team. Anytime trades are made, there are other shoes that drop. Maybe one of the teams involved in this deal would have needed a piece to complete their new look team. Maybe they would be interested in doing business with you. Not happening now.

Your team is years away from contention. This just pushed you back further.

Geoff Petrie / Rod Thorn

Wasn't the point of the lockout to prevent deals like this from scrolling across ESPN's BottomLine:

Kings Sign Marcus Thornton for 4 years / $32m

76ers Sign Thaddeus Young for 5 years / $42m

Good Lord. What are GP and RT thinking?

(You know something is wrong when John Hollinger and I agree on something.)

NFL: Week 14 Picks

2011-12-08T05:44:00.001-05:00

Need to get back to .500 before I explain picks. Will that happen this year?

Steelers -14
Chiefs +9
Lions -7
Eagles +3
Texans +3

Record: 29-31-5

Please Stop With the "Manning for MVP" BS

2011-12-07T23:39:00.003-05:00

There have been some people suggesting that Peyton Manning deserves MVP votes this season despite not having played a single down.

NFL Magazine, a league-owned publication, went a step further and actually named Peyton their MVP.

[Editor's note: this is ridiculous for a few reasons: 1. The season is only 75% over; 2. It's a slap in the face to every player that actually PLAYED this year. I digress.]

Here are three questions / answers that I hope will stop this push.

-Would anyone vote for a retired player in any sport to win MVP? No, because it's nonsensical. In 1997-98, Michael Jordan led the Bulls to a 62-20 record and won his sixth NBA title. He retired immediately thereafter. The following year, Chicago went 13-37 in a lockout shortened season. Did everyone realize how great MJ was? Sure. Did anyone suggest Jordan for MVP? Of course not.

In 1998, John Elway led the Broncos to a 14-2 record and a Super Bowl title. He retired immediately thereafter. The following year, Denver went6-10 and missed the playoffs. Did everyone realize how great Elway was? Sure. Did anyone suggest he win the MVP? Of course not.

Manning should be treated like a retired player. We understand he's great, but that doesn't mean he's the MVP.

No one is arguing Manning is a great player; he's just not the 2011 MVP

-Do you realize how terrible the combination of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter, and Dan Orlovsky are at this point in their careers? The fact that Orlovsky could become the first player ever to start more than five games at quarterback for two different teams that went 0-16 summarizes it nicely. Collins was a very good quarterback at one time in his career. That time is not now. Curtis Painter has hair that hundreds of men would kill for, but unfortunately he's useless as a quarterback.

-Was this team in decline already before Peyton's injury? This team doesn't go 0-12 to start the year with Manning at the helm. That much is obvious. However, the team was trending downward for the last two seasons (admittedly, they did make the playoffs in both seasons), and the roster was aging. It is impossible to say what Indy's record would have been with Peyton, but with the way Houston is playing, it's not outrageous to think they would have missed the playoffs even with Peyton. Would anyone vote for him as the MVP if the Colts were 6-6 right now? Highly doubtful.

The best way to end this debate would be for the Colts to draft Andrew Luck and keep the rest of the roster largely intact. Then, with Manning starting under center next year, working with the same guys, we would be able to see how much of a difference he actually makes.

What does everyone else think?

Winter Meeting Thoughts

2011-12-07T21:29:00.002-05:00

*As a Met fan, I love that 32-year old Mark Buehrle signed with the Marlins for 4-years / $58m. There is a 0.25% chance of this contract working out well for the Fish.

He's a slightly above average starter that will give you 200+ innings a year. Ok, he's a lefty. So what? Why is there such a premium placed on lefthanders?

I know fantasy baseball is just that: fantasy. But you cannot tell me a guy who will find himself drafted after at least 60-75 other starting pitchers in next year's drafts warrants a contract of this size.

This deal stinks of Jeff Suppan, Brad Radke, and Kevin Appier all wrapped in one. And, I'm overjoyed by the stench.

(Apologies for the poor quality, but MLB is stingy with their highlights)

Buehrle is a great athlete and made one of the most incredible defensive plays I've ever seen, but that doesn't justify giving him almost $15m per season.

I wouldn't mind watching them fork over $90m+ for CJ Wilson, either.

*This is somewhat unrelated to the Winter Meetings, but it was announced today that Tim McCarver - yes, the same Tim McCarver I have decried as one of the WORST announcers in all of sports - was named the Ford Frick Award recipient for 2011. This means McAwful will be headed to the Hall of Fame for his excellence in broadcasting.

Yes, the BASEBALL HALL OF FAME IN COOPERSTOWN, NY. And, yes, Tim McCarver. What is going on here?

I would call this a shame, a travesty, a sham, and a bad joke, but Matt at Awful Announcing did a better job than I could.

To put into context how much AA and its readers hate McAwful, he find himself on the Mt. Rushmore-esque masthead of terrible announcers.

Seriously, am I dreaming right now? Tim McCarver going to the Hall of Fame. WTF.

*If true, I love the Octavio Dotel / Tigers deal. That's a solid bullpen now with Jose Valverde at the back and Dotel + Joaquin Benoit setting him up.

*Sandy, please stay away from Brad Lidge. However, if the Yankees are willing to pay almost all of AJ Burnett's salary, take a shot on the guy. He still has strikeout stuff and would give up far few homers in Citi Field than he did at Yankee Stadium.

*I'll give you the team's offseason philosophy; you name the team. [Hint: it's been the same philosophy for the last 20 years.]

Let's not make a major splash in free agency on established, quality talent. Instead, we'll overspend on lower-level guys and make believe everything will work out. When it doesn't, we can say we tried.

If you guessed the Pittsburgh Pirates, you are a winner.

After handing an outlandish, 2 year / $10.5m deal to Clint Barmes a few weeks back, they were back to their misguided ways today, inking Erik Bedard to a 1 year / $4.5m deal AND Nate McLouth to a 1 year / $1.75m deal.

Fast forward to August when the Pirates are ineveitably out of contention again, and GM Neil Huntington can point to these moves (and the Rod Barajas signing) and say the effort was there.

It's amazing when you look at the history of awful signings they have had. These are all of the players they have given Major League deals worth at least $1m in the last five offseasons:

2006- Tony Armas
2007- Chris Gomez
2008- Eric Hinske, Ramon Vasquez
2009- Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby, Octavio Dotel (blind squirrel finds nut), Brendan Donnelly
2010- Lyle Overbay, Kevin Correia, Matt Diaz

Just because you pay someone to play like a star doesn't mean they are one.

Thank God for the Steelers and Penguins.

*At the July trade deadline, Carlos Beltran fetched a top-flight pitching prospect. Now, no one wants to sign this guy? He's not tied to any draft pick compensation. What am I missing?

*Seriously, Sandy, get your head right. I don't want to be sitting here tomorrow wondering what you were thinking when you traded away Ike Davis and Jon Niese.

Sandy Has Lost It

2011-12-06T22:38:00.002-05:00

Trading Angel Pagan for two scrubs and giving Frank Francisco a two-year $12m deal?

Then signing Jon Rauch. We aren't playing basketball, Sandy. His 6'10" frame isn't helping us.

Old Man Is Off His Wagon.

College Football: Regular Season Summary

2011-12-06T21:47:00.002-05:00

Because I never bet against the Service Academies, I will not be picking the Army-Navy game this weekend. That means, Week 14 concluded my college football regular season.

My record was: 37-27-2 (PoW: 6-8; Upset: 7-7)

I will be making bowl selections so check back over the next few weeks. I'm hoping to write in a bit more detail about each pick if time allows.

Monday Mullet

2011-12-05T05:53:00.003-05:00

Juan Gonzalez made $87m in his career but couldn't afford a proper haircut

Depressed...

2011-12-04T23:07:00.004-05:00

First the Mets lose Jose Reyes. Then I realize they'll only get a supplemental first rounder and a THIRD rounder for him.

Brilliant, Sandy. Just brilliant.

Oh, and now Ruben Tejada is our shortstop of the future.

Christ.

Initial Bowl Game Thoughts

2011-12-04T22:28:00.005-05:00

*I've beaten this drum way too many times already, but I think it's garbage that there will be a rematch for the national title. We've already seen this game. Ok, I'm done complaining about this.

*I love the Illinois vs UCLA matchup in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Both teams fired their head coaches (Ron Zook and Rick Neuhesiel). I'm interested to see which team thought more highly of their outgoing coach.

*If you don't believe the whole BCS system is a sham, look no further than Virginia Tech playing in the Sugar Bowl. I was at the ACC Championship Game last night, and this team was terrible. They do not deserve to be anywhere near a meaningful game, after all:

1- they haven't beaten any good team this season,
2- they had their chance last night and squandered it, and
3- there are at least three (Boise State, Kansas State, Oklahoma) and maybe four (Baylor) more qualified teams that were passed over

Va Tech fans might* buy more tickets than some of these other institutions, but the BEST TEAMS should be playing in these games, not the teams with the most fans.

*I say "might" becuase Hokies fans didn't exactly show up in droves for the title game last night in Charlotte, a city within driving distance from campus.

*I know Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alumnus, but it seems like the Razorbacks find a way to play at Cowboys Stadium every year. They will take on Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl on January 6th in Dallas.

*If the the over/under for the Rose Bowl is any two-digit number, I'm taking the over. Wisconsin and Oregon are going to light up the scoreboard.

*The Urban Meyer Bowl, err, Gator Bowl between Ohio State and Florida will be a must watch as well.

Without this guy's involvement,
no one would have faulted you for skipping this game.

*The Liberty Bowl between Vanderbilt and Cincinnati features the two teams that offered "Behind the Scenes" packages in Buster Olney's Vermont fundraiser. I made bids on both but lost. Maybe I'll go to this game and knock them out in one shot.

*I'm happy that teams like Temple, Utah State, Wyoming, Ohio, and Arkansas State have the opportunity to play in bowl games. Just don't expect me to watch them.

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 13

2011-12-04T21:13:00.008-05:00

1. I know the Tebows are in first place. Under the leadership of the The Glorious One, they have won five games in a row and six of the seven He has started. They are 4-0 on the road and sit atop the AFC West at 7-5 despite having been outscored by opponents 292-256 this season. The craziest stat in my opinion: Denver has only won one game this year by more than a touchdown. Keep the game close until the fourth, and then outwill the other team. If it ain't broke...

2. I know that as a fan, I would much, much, much, much prefer to have a camera placed on each of the end lines, each of the sidelines, and each of the goal lines than having them focused on each of the head coaches. CBS and Fox spend billions of dollars broadcasting these games, how can there ever be a question about what happened near a boundary? Spend the extra money and fix these cameras in position. Watching Tom Coughlin about to break into tears gets boring the 19th time we see it each game.

3. I know intelligent timeout usage is at an all-time low. I'm still baffled at the lack of clock management skills by head coaches. These guys are brilliant with the X's and O's but laughably bad when it comes to mathematics. (Editor's Note: I would be more than happy to help on your sideline Jason Garrett, Andy Reid, Mike Shannahan, Mike and Lovie Smith, or anyone else in need of help.)

4. I know the Bears will be calling Donovan McNabb if they haven't done so already. Caleb Hanie looks lost, and without Matthew Forte, this Bears offense stands no chance with CH at the helm.

Will McNabb be fitted with his FOURTH jersey in the last two years?

5. I know the Washington Redskins need to draft Robert Griffin III. Rex Grossman has negative pocket presence, and we know John Beck is awful. Mel Kiper called for the 'Skins to trade for Peyton Manning, but I think that makes very little sense. This roster is filled with deep threat wide receivers and lacks much in the way of a possession receiver. Manning would get these smallish guys killed with his questionable throws over the middle. Imagine RGIII throwing to Santana Moss, Brandon Banks, and Anthony Armstrong all day? That would be fun to watch. Much more fan that the offense being trotted out right now in DC.

Things won't get easier for Rex the rest of the way as he'll likely be without Fred Davis and Trent Williams, who were both suspended four games for drug use.

6. I know TJ Yates looked serviceable at quarterback for the Texans, but they cannot survive without Andre Johnson over the long haul. Yates made a couple questionable decisions with the ball, but he "managed the game" in a Trent Dilfer-kind-of-way (that is a compliment). Andre Johnson, however, went down with appeared to be a re-aggravation of a hamstring injury that sidelined him for almost two months earlier this year. If he's done for the season, so is Houston.

Something working nicely in Houston's favor, through Week 13, the AFC South has the least combined wins of any division in football. They are a shoo-in for the playoffs, but need AJ80 if they want to advance once they get there.

7. I know that all week I was telling anyone who would listen (not many people) how much today's Giants-Packers game reminded me of the 2007 Week 17 Giants-Patriots game. It's very fitting both games had the identical 38-35 score. New York caught a nice break when Dallas lost at Arizona today, making next week's matchup with the Cowboys a battle for first place in the NFC East.

8. I know the Browns are going to surprise some people next year. In this year's Draft, they focused completely on defense, and it worked. Next year, if they use their two first round picks on a quarterback and a skill position offensive player, they can make a run.

9. I know I was wrong about Cam Newton. I doubted this rookie when doing all of my 2011 NFL Draft prep work, and he has made me look pretty foolish.

After three more today, Newton now holds the single-season rushing touchdown record for a quarterback (13). More importantly, he has turned last year's pathetic 2-14 squad into a respectable 4-8 team that no one wants to face.

10. I know I will be sick of all the BCS Title Game rematch talk by next Wednesday. I never thought I'd say this about a national championship game, but I am not excited whatsoever. Either give Oklahoma State a shot at LSU or just give the title directly to the Tigers who already beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

11. I know the Chargers will beat the Jaguars 24-19 on Monday Night Football. I'm a little conflicted on this one. On one hand, San Diego has nothing to play for and the whole Jacksonville roster will be trying to impress their new owner and coach. On the other hand, Jacksonville is one of three teams since 1994 not to score at least 20 points in any of their first 11 games of the season (hat tip, CHFF). Talent wins out.

For what it's worth, the remaining slate of Thursday Night games is atrocious so plan accordingly.

"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.

College Football: Week 14 Picks

2011-11-30T23:01:00.000-05:00

Baylor -2.5
Georgia +14

Upset: Clemson +7
Pick of the Week: Wisconsin -9.5

Record: 35-25-2 (PoW: 6-7; Upset: 6-7)

NFL: Week 13 Picks

2011-11-30T21:53:00.002-05:00

I'm one game under .500. Until I get there, no explanations.

I will say that I'm glad I saved my $1,500 and didn't enter the Hilton SuperContest in 2011. Maybe in 2012...

Raiders +3
Browns +7
Bengals +7
Giants +9
Chargers -1.5

Record: 27-28-5

Non-Sports Post: Classic Frame Job

2011-11-30T21:34:00.003-05:00

Brooklyn - A vandal went on a tire-slashing rampage overnight on Monday, stranding more than three dozen cars on 71st and 72nd streets — and residents say that the carnage came a day after a Park Slope tire shop plastered the area with business cards. Neighbors on the block between Third Avenue and Ridge Boulevard said that the vandals slashed at least one tire on up to 40 cars 24 hours after business cards for Danny’s Rims Tires and Accessories were placed on dozens of car windshields.“It could just be coincidental, but it’s kind of fishy,” said one neighbor who declined to be identified because he feared retaliation by whoever was behind the tire slashings. “Most times, it’s just some kid and they hit one tire. But this time, they did it so that you can’t just throw a spare on.” Neighbors agreed that the carnage was too widespread to be the work of teens out having fun…

Cops said that they were looking into the connection between the slashings and the cards for the shop on Fourth Avenue between 11th and 12th streets. “We are aware that there were some cards found on the area,” said Captain Richard DiBlasio. “The 6-8 detective squad has an open investigation on that.”…

The brother of the tire shop’s owner flatly refused any connection. “It’s got to be a bad coincidence,” said Jolio Moran. “We don’t pay people to slash tires. It’s frustrating that people would even think we would do something like that. We don’t even specialize in fixing flats. Our main thing is [selling] rims.” The shop pays two men to distribute the cards, he said. “My brother would never send people out to slash tires knowing that they’re going to come back here,” he said.

This reminds me of a time in college when I had a friend – we’ll call him Paul – who went into our baseball locker room and painted over everyone’s individual locker locks (including his own) with white out so no one could see the numbers. He left two lockers untouched. Those lockers belonged to two people we’ll call Andrew and Gary, who happened to be pranksters themselves and roommates. The hope of course was that we would all think Andrew and Gary were the guilty parties. Classic frame job.

Without knowing anything about the tire industry in Brooklyn, I’m guessing one tire company pulled a similar frame job here. Company A puts Company B’s business cards on all cars in the area. Then Company A slashes the tires in hopes everyone will think Company B was behind this reuse and in turn all the people who got their tires slashed will got to Company A to get them fixed. Not only will Company A get the business but it could put Company B out of business. Brilliant plan.

And for some reason I have a feeling Paul is behind this whole thing.

Monday Mullet

2011-11-28T05:52:00.003-05:00

Great name, better hair

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 12

2011-11-27T20:35:00.000-05:00

1. I know it's time for the Jets to seriously consider an alternative to Mark Sanchez. Watching him - at least from the perspective of a Jet fan - is as nerve-wracking as anything I've seen in sports since having to endure the John Franco years in Flushing with the Mets. I don't think Mark Brunell is a better option for the rest of the year so it looks like we are stuck with Sanchize, but GM Mike Tannenbaum needs to bring in some talent under center for 2012. Maybe some competition will light a fire under Mark.

While he's add it, some skill position players who did not play in the Big 10 wouldn't hurt either.

Sanchez had one of the least impressive 4 TD games I can ever remember

2. I know Norv Turner needs to be fired. He is an absolute disastrous game manager (how do you not call timeout with 2:38 left in the game?), he motivates no one, and the Chargers have never developed a killer instinct during his tenure. Tim Tebow ran / willed the Broncos to victory today in one of the most boring, obvious game plans we've seen all year.

Time to go, Norv.

3. I know Andy Reid deserves another year. Sure, this Dream Team turned into a nightmare, but the guy has turned the Eagles into consistent winners. Even if they fail to make the postseason this year, Philadelphia has reached the playoffs in nine of the past 12 seasons. The Eagles have had only one losing season under Reid since 2000. Give the guy a chance to redeem himself. He's earned it.

4. I know the schedule down the stretch drastically favors the Cowboys in their quest to win the NFC East. Dallas will be favored in their next three games while the Giants will be underdogs in their next three (including on Monday Night Football tomorrow). New York needs to spring at least one upset if they want to play into January.

5. I know the Colts have clinched the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Indianapolis is now 0-11. Call me crazy, but I think Alabama RB Trent Richardson would do more for this organization over the next 7-10 years than Andrew Luck would. I also think next week's Indy-New England game might have the largest spread of the year (-20?).

6. I know it was a great week for leap-frogging defenders. Check out these two hops by LaGarrette Blount and Roy Helu, respectively: Here and here.

7. I know Stevie Johnson's Plax-Shooting-Himself celebration would have been 1000 times cooler if he didn't drop a game-winning touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

Johnson shooting himself in the leg would be followed in the fourth
by him shooting himself in the foot.

8. I know the only remotely interesting thing about the NFC West over the last five weeks of the season will be watching Patrick Peterson try to break the single-season punt return record. With his TD return today, PP has four this season, which ties the mark for one year.

9. I know the University of Miami alums started a new streak today. Week 11 marked the first time in 150 consecutive weeks that a former Hurricane did not score at least one touchdown. Reggie Wayne's 56-yard touchdown catch today got the U back on the right track.

10. I know that I couldn't be any less excited for the potential BCS title game rematch of LSU vs. Alabama. Why should LSU have to beat a team they already defeated on the road earlier in the year? Give the Tigers the title and we'll watch everyone else in compete in the other BCS bowls.

11. I know the Saints will knock off the Giants 34-17 tomorrow night. I don't see how New York can contain Drew Brees.

College Football: Week 13 Picks

2011-11-24T07:08:00.001-05:00

Happy Thanksgiving. Slow week with only three picks, but I like them a lot...

Wisconsin -14.5

Upset: Georgia Tech +6
Pick of the Week: Arkansas +12

Record: 34-23-2 (PoW: 6-6; Upset: 6-6)

NFL: Week 12 Picks

2011-11-23T06:56:00.001-05:00

Bills +8
Bears +5
Titans -3
Dolphins +7
Lions +7

Record: 24-27-4

MLB Odds & Ends

2011-11-21T22:24:00.001-05:00

*I had an offseason plan for the Mets which was due to be published last week. However, all indications are that compensation for Type B free agents will be eliminated. This was a major part of my write-up. So...back to the drawing board for me. I'll have an updated version of this article out in the next few weeks.

*On October 31st, the Braves declined their 2012 team option on Nate McLouth ($10.65m) thus making him a free agent. As bloggers, we wasted waaaaay too much time dissecting the 2009 trade that sent him to Atlanta from Pittsburgh for these three scrubs: Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez.

At least the Pirates saved themselves some cash in the deal. For just under $14m, what did Atlanta get from Nate "The Not Great At All" in that timeframe? 124 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, and 23 SB in 848 ABs. Not good.

*Old friend Timo Perez of early-2000s New York Mets fame was suspended 50 games for failing a drug test. Good to see he's still playing despite the fact he hasn't gotten a Major League at bat since September 29, 2007, roughly around the last time Nate McLouth was a decent player.

*How pathetic are things in Oakland these days? Rumor had it that Billy Beane met with Sir Sidney Ponson last week, presumably to talk about bringing in the fat man to pitch for the A's.

*Former San Diego Padres minor leaguer 1B / OF Craig Cooper is still unsigned. A solid source told me he would jump at the opportunity to compete for a roster spot in Spring Training as opposed to trading mortgage-backed securities.

Flat out AWESOME

2011-11-21T07:42:00.000-05:00

Monday Mullet

2011-11-21T07:40:00.000-05:00

Evan Longoria

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 11

2011-11-20T19:48:00.003-05:00

Here are 11 Things I Know I Know:

1. I know the Lions are back. After losing three of their last four, worries started to creep into the minds of the Detroit faithful.

To start today's game, Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions in his first eight passes and saw his team fall behind 24-7 in the opening 20 minutes. Time to panic? Nah. Detroit cut the lead to 13 by halftime and outscored Carolina 35-8 in the second half behind five Stafford touchdown passes.

Detroit hosts Green Bay on Thursday and might have the best chance of giving the Packers their first (only?) loss of the season.

Kevin Smith - apparently resurrected from the dead over the last two weeks -
had over 200 yards from scrimmage on Sunday

2. I know the Cowboys are dangerous and could find themselves in first place if the Eagles can pull off a mini-miracle tonight against the Giants. (Side note: Huge shout out to Mark Herzlich, starting his first NFL game tonight. Congratulations.)

You can never fully trust Tony Romo...or completely count him out. He's about as polarizing an athlete as anyone not named Tim Tebow, and he has the Cowboys sitting at 6-4 as they head into their Turkey Bowl against Miami. Speaking of Miami...

3. I know the Dolphins will be playing spoiler for the rest of the season. Their last six games are against teams with legitimate playoff aspirations: at Dallas, vs Oakland, vs Philadelphia (humor me), at Buffalo, at New England, and vs the New York Jets. If you want to be playing meaningful January games, do not take Miami - winners of three straight - lightly.

4. I know the slate of Thursday games will be the best tripleheader in Thanksgiving history.

I talked about the Green Bay / Detroit and Miami / Dallas games already. I didn't even touch on Brother Bowl, San Francisco at Baltimore. All three of these games have deep playoff implications.

Also, if you need to find me for some reason on Thursday, search my couch between the hours of 12:30 and 11pm and you have a 99.9% chance of success.

5. I know I was more impressed with the Bengals than I was with the Ravens despite the fact they lost. Cincinnati and Gingy Andy Dalton went into Baltimore and gave them all they could handle. Baltimore needed a late fourth quarter red zone stop to seal the seven-point victory. The Bengals did this all without their best offensive weapon, AJ Green.

6. I know the Jets have nine lives. The loss to Denver means winning the AFC East is out of the question. However, they are only a game out of the final Wildcard spot thanks to losses from all of their closest competitors, most notably Cincinnati. They have three very winnable games on the horizon (vs Buffalo, at Washington, and vs Kansas City). If they win those three, New York will almost assuredly be at least tied for the Wildcard lead since the Bengals have games at Pittsburgh and against Houston over the next three weeks.

7. I know the Chargers are the best team in NFL history to ever have lost five straight games in one season. This team is making the playoffs despite being two games under .500 through 10 games. They are about to rip off three or four straight wins to get themselves back into the race.

8. I know Bears will play a huge role in determining which team wins the AFC West? Chicago knocked off the Chargers today, visit Oakland next week, then host Kansas City in two weeks, and finally travel to Denver in three weeks. Crazy scheduling that a team in the NFC North plays another division's teams in four consecutive weeks.

9. I know Dante Stallworth now has as many touchdowns to his name since 2008 as he does murdered people: 1. The guy should be in jail, not having "Hail to the Redskins" sung to him.

10. I know anyone in favor of #DeathToTheBCS (should first get behind me in line and then) root for Arkansas to knock off LSU on Friday. If that happens, the top three teams in the current BCS standings - LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas - will have each beaten each other once and lost to each other once.

Behind them are some less-than-incredible-one-loss teams:

Stanford - Got smoked at home by Oregon
Oklahoma State - Lost as 30 point road favorites at Iowa State
Virginia Tech - Lost at home to Clemson
Boise State - Lost at home by one point to TCU on a last minute two-point conversion (for my money, the "strongest" loss of the one-loss teams)

Then come the 11-0 Houston Cougars.

Excited about any of those matchups? Me neither.

11. I know the Patriots will beat the Chiefs 44-13 on Monday Night Football. Billy B will love running up the score on his old protege Todd Haley. No Matt Cassel, no Jamaal Charles, no chance.

"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.

College Football: Week 12 Picks

2011-11-16T23:04:00.001-05:00

A solid 4-1 week pushes me up to 56% on the season.

UAB +23
Rutgers +3
LSU -29
Virginia +17
Kansas State +9.5

Upset: USC +15.5
Pick of the Week: Nebraska +3.5

Record: 28-22-2 (PoW: 6-5; Upset: 5-6)

NFL: Week 11 Picks

2011-11-16T22:25:00.001-05:00

Good Lord Almighty. I'm looking back at my picks for the last three weeks and noticed I am 0-15. Do you realize the odds of that? 1 in 16,384. If you parlayed the opposite of my last three week's worth of picks, you could be a millionaire at this point. I have beaten myself up over this pathetic performance, and it's time to turn this around. Right? My wallet hopes so.

Broncos +6: White Jesus.
Dolphins -1: Bills are a fraud.
Packers -14: Best team in football, hands down.
Titans +6: Seems like too many points.
Redskins +8.5: These games always seem to be closer than they should be.

Record: 21-26-3

Check out Rook's Latest Article

2011-11-16T21:43:00.001-05:00

www.kuhlwhip.tumblr.com

He's got some wide receivers for you.

Introducing the Fe-Mullet

2011-11-14T06:33:00.000-05:00

I can't believe it took me this long to think of this word. I'm so pumped right now I can't tell you.

Women in possession of a fe-mullet have been put on notice.

Link to Buy Low / Sell High

2011-11-09T23:22:00.001-05:00

Rook put out a nice article today. Check it out: www.kuhlwhip.tumblr.com

College Football: Week 11 Picks

2011-11-09T22:52:00.003-05:00

Virginia Tech -1
Kansas State +4.5
Washington +11.5

Upset: Navy +9
Pick of the Week: Oregon +3.5

Record: 24-21-2 (PoW: 5-5; Upset: 4-6)

NFL: Week 10 Picks

2011-11-09T22:41:00.002-05:00

I'm 1-9 over the last two weeks. Until I break out of this funk, it's just picks without support:

Panthers -3
Giants +3.5
Lions +3
Ravens -7
Jets -1.5

Am I Dreaming Right Now?

2011-11-07T19:47:00.002-05:00

Melky Cabrera just got traded for Jonathan Sanchez.

Um, what?

How did the Royals just pull off this coup? They are usually the ones getting ripped off not doing the ripping. I’m in shock right now.

Are the Giants giving anyone else away?

Every other GM in baseball is kicking himself right now for not realizing the Giants were ready to give away Sanchez.

I’m also shocked that the headline of the story is about the Giants acquiring Melky. It’s amazing what Yankee-related, name recognition gets you these days.

Maybe Shelly Duncan could net the Indians Matt Cain. At this point, anything seems possible.

Monday Mullet

2011-11-07T06:49:00.004-05:00

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 9

2011-11-06T21:47:00.004-05:00

Full-fledged 11 Things will return in about a month, but here are some brief thoughts:

1. I know the Denver Tebows are one game out of the playoffs. Sure, they are 3-4 and need to jump three teams in their division, but let's give the Second Coming another few weeks before demanding his benching.

2. I know the Giants were the team of the week. Hard to argue with this one, either, as they went into Foxboro and came away with a victory despite being down twice in the fourth quarter alone...and despite employing Aaron Ross on their team. Even more impressive without Ahmad Bradshaw.

3. I know the Jets showed America the Bills are a fraud. What a terrible performance by Buffalo at home. New York's defense clearly got the rest it needed during the bye week and looks primed for a huge second half.

4. I know the Colts have the lead all to themselves in the Suck for Luck Race. I don't know what they would do with the pick, but I'm excited to find out. If Indy can't win one of their next two games (vs Jacksonville, vs Carolina), they might be staring at 0-16.

5. I know the 49ers are 7-0-1 against the spread this year. Why do I continue to doubt this team?

6. I know it's garbage that Alabama only dropped to 3rd in the BCS. They had their shot against the #1 team in the country and blew it. Stanford and Boise State have every reason to feel robbed.

7. I know the Bengals are legit contenders. I can't believe I just wrote that.

8. I know the Chargers are about to go on their typical second half of the season run. I thought they gained a lot of confidence as the game progressed today, and Phil Rivers can't be this bad all year.

9. I know the Saints are flying under the radar this season but figure to be a dangerous team in the postseason. In fact, this year's NFC playoffs could be among the best ever with Green Bay, San Fran, New York, New Orleans along with two of these teams: Philly, Detroit , Dallas, and Atlanta.

10. I know Thursday Night football starts this week. Make sure you set your fantasy lineups.

11. I know the Eagles will beat the Bears tomorrow night, 34-17.

College Football: Week 10 Picks

2011-11-04T20:52:00.001-04:00

Last week was a very good one (3-1-1) that could have been great if not for one of the toughest pushes of all time. I had USC getting 8 at home and watched them blow a double-digit second half lead and then lose in triple overtime... by exactly 8 points. Brutal game for me, but least it was just a push. Trying to stay hot with these picks:

Pittsburgh +3.5
South Carolina +5
Washington +17

Upset: Texas Tech +14.5
Pick of the Week: Alabama -4.5

Record: 23-18-1 (PoW: 5-4; Upset: 4-5)

NFL: Week 9 Picks

2011-11-04T20:44:00.000-04:00

After an 0-5 week, I'm embarrassed. Really terrible work by me. Let's get back to the winning ways:

Colts +7
Titans -1.5
Chargers +5.5
Chiefs -3.5
Jets +2

Record: 20-17-3

Who Will Be Kim K's Next Husband?

2011-10-31T22:18:00.002-04:00

Banter favorite Kim Kardashian is back on the market. Who will she marry next?

Here's my guess:

LA Dodgers' outfielder, Matt Kemp

I have no idea why he's wearing goggles

My reasoning-

He's an athlete of African American persuasion, he's on the cusp of super-duper stardom, he's younger than KK, and he plays his home games in LA. Plus, he's dated a celebrity before (Rihanna).

Almost makes too much sense.

-Back to your regularly scheduled sports commentary-

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Take I

2011-10-31T21:15:00.007-04:00

With apologies for not writing my usual Sunday night 11 Things column because of a prior commitment, here's a sneak peak at what the top 10 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft would look like if it were to happen today, and it's downright offensive (nine of 10 guys play on that side of the ball):

1. Miami - Some Dude Named Luck, QB, Stanford: If you haven't heard about this guy already, please close this tab of your browser and go pay attention.

2. Indianapolis - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: An incredible consolation prize for the team that misses on Luck at the top of the draft. Richardson might be on his way to winning the Heisman and would look great next to Peyton Manning in 2012. I encouraged Bill Polian & Co to take a shot on Bama's last Heisman-winning running back - Mark Ingram - in the 2011 Draft but to no avail. Now, they are stuck with the trio that brings fear to no one, Delone Carter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown. Richardson would change the whole dynamic of the Indy offense.

3. St. Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: This wouldn't be the sexiest pick, but the Rams whiffed the last time they took an offensive lineman this high (Jason Smith, number two overall in 2009) leaving a gaping hole on the left side of their line. That needs rectifying if they want to give Sam Bradford a shot to succeed.

4. Arizona - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Pretty sure Larry Fitzgerald would approve of this one. I considered Matt Barkley here for the Cardinals, but it's too early to give up on Kevin Kolb. I also think they have a bitter taste in their mouth from the last time they took a QB from USC in the top-10 (see Leinart, Matt). If Kolb can't hack it with the combo of Fitz and Blackmon, though, they'll be looking for a signal caller in 2013.

Love the idea of a Blackmon-Fitzgerald

5. Minnesota - Matt Kalil, OT, USC: The Vikings are all-in with Christian Ponder. Gottaa protect his blind side. Kalil has a great pedigree - his older bro his an offensive lineman for the Panthers - and he's honed is craft protecting Luck for the last three years.

6. Jacksonville - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Jaguars are one of the most boring teams in the NFL. As I said prior to this year's draft, they need playmakers. I completely disapproved of the Blaine Gabbert selection at the time (and still do), thinking they should have traded up for one of the premier wide receivers, AJ Green or Julio Jones. That didn't happen and now the offense is sputtering. Jacksonville has not had much luck at the position over the years - R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - but Floyd seems like a man on a mission this season despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Mike Thomas is miscast as a number one receiver. Get Gabbert some weapons.

7. Carolina - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Panthers, thanks to the miracle worker known as Cam Newton, are actually a decent team right now. The offense is flowing, and now it's the defense's turn to catch up. Claiborne is a shutdown corner that could pair with Chris Gamble to form one of the better combos in the NFL.

8. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Pete Carroll recruited this guy to USC and had enough faith in him that Barkley started from Day One as a freshman. If he slips this far, I think this is a no-brainer.

9. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: This whole Tim Tebow experiment is going to end badly...unless they move him to H-Back and have him carry the ball a few times a game. Jones has plenty of arm to throw through the winds in Denver, and he is the best option left on the board right now.

10. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The only thing that would shock me with the Redskins is if they weren't picking higher than 10th by the time April comes around. This is a bad team with a terrible quarterback situation. They will have a new body under center by next fall, and I'm guessing it will be the multifaceted RG3.

Monday Mullet

2011-10-31T06:47:00.002-04:00

Inky

NFL: Week 8 Picks

2011-10-27T21:23:00.002-04:00

Huge 4-1 week sends me over 61% for the season and into the top 15% of the Hilton SuperContest.

Panthers -3: Christian Ponder got lucky in his first start last week. That won't last. I'm going to ride this Cam bandwagon until it throws me off.

Those of us backing this guy consistently have been all smiles.

Redskins +7: Call it the curse of the bye week, but I think the Bills will struggle after their week off. Washington is the more desperate team, and I expect them to play like it.

Saints -13: It is a rare, rare day when I take a road favorite especially when they are giving almost two touchdowns. However, this New Orleans offense couple with the atrocious St. Louis offense could make this one a romp.

Seahawks +2.5: Homefield advantage in Seattle is worth about a touchdown in my mind. I think the Seattle D can keep this in the game much like they did last week against the Browns. Vegas expects this one to be a low scoring affair too as they have the over/under at just 38, lowest of any game this week.

Cowboys +3.5: Again, that bye week thing hasn't been kind to teams. Dallas has been playing well and could put a huge monkeywrench in Philly's postseason plans. I'm guessing the Eagles win but by less than the spread.

Record: 19-12-3

College Football: Week 9 Picks

2011-10-26T21:14:00.002-04:00

In a rut right now, so I'm gonna try to shake things up by making picks in list form.

Kansas State +14
Notre Dame / Navy - Over 62
USC +8
Upset: Illinois +5.5
Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State -13.5

Record: 20-17 (PoW: 4-4; Upset: 3-5)

"Suck for Luck" Hath a New Name...

2011-10-25T22:18:00.005-04:00

... "The Dolphins Sign JP Losman"

This is priceless. Miami has decided to stop trying to pretend like they actually want to win games this year.

Just send Luck our way already. We'll do anything.

The only win UFL superstar JP Losman will lead Miami to:
the fist pick of the 2012 NFL Draft

The Hedge (Update)

2011-10-25T20:25:00.001-04:00

As you remember, when faced with my initial decision, I could have hedged at the outset and guaranteed myself either $660 (Cardinals win Series) or $387 (Rangers win Series), but decided to just wager game-by-game (we’ll call it an intra-series).

Game 1, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Lost $150

Game 2, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Won $165
Running Total: +$15

After Game 2, I wimped (stronger words are probably appropriate here) out and took the Rangers to win the Series at -180. Bet $360 to win $200.

I stayed away from Games 3 and 4 in hopes the Cardinals could steal one because the Rangers were -200 to win both of those games. I lucked out when Albert Pujols cemented his status as the greatest hitter of our generation in St. Louis’ Game 3 victory.

The people who do these sorts of things estimated Pujols’ first game 3 homer to have gone 423 feet. My guess would have been closer to 600. Ball was CRUSHED.

Game 5, bet 130 on Rangers to win 100.
Result: Won $100
Running Total: +$115 (with $360 hedge still at risk)

Game 6, leaning towards betting $150 on Rangers to win 165. This would leave me at one of the following two places:

Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $165 (game 6 bet) + $115 (running total) = 480

Cardinals win: -$35 running total (with $360 hedge still at risk) and put $300 play on Rangers in Game 7

Assuming Cardinals do win Game 6, my Game 7 outcomes would be:

Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $270 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 435

Cardinals win: $1260 (Vegas bet) - $360 (series hedge) - $300 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 565

Unless the odds spin completely against me, I should be guaranteed at least a $435 payday which is slightly better than what I would have gotten had I hedged from the beginning.

My only regret is the midseries hedge. Once I decided to go game-to-game, I should have held the fort.

In the end, that decision will cost me a few dollars, but overall, this has been a great learning experience and a solid return on my $10 investment.

Monday Mullet

2011-10-24T06:43:00.003-04:00

Mr. Perfect (Mullet)

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 7

2011-10-23T20:56:00.004-04:00

1. I know the Jets did exactly what I expected them to against the Chargers. Well, at least in the second half they did. A fluke fumble by Dustin Keller was returned for a score putting New York behind early. Then Mark Sanchez threw his token goal line interception, and they trailed by 11 at the half. But, the Jets showed some resiliency.

They chipped away and battled back to finally take their first lead of the day midway through the fourth quarter. Then the Norv Turner - Philip Rivers combo took over and ran one of the worst two minute offenses I ever remember seeing. Game over.

Chargers fans recognize this face.

The win moves them to 4-3 as they head into the bye.

Another great sign for the Jets is that they are now 4-0 at home. They haven't won more than five home games in a season since 2004 but look to be on their way this season. Now if they could only win a roadie (0-3 so far).

2. I know the Raiders looked like complete fools this week. First they overpay for Carson Palmer, then they start Kyle Boller who throws three picks, and then they let Palmer take a shot only to see him throw three interceptions. Maybe old #3 will turn things around - they can't get much worse - but the early returns are not positive.

3. I know the Titans blew a golden opportunity to seize control of the AFC South. The Texans came to town and demolished Tennessee. Chris Johnson looked terrible again (18 yards rushing on 10 carries and 27 yards receiving on 6 catches). What happened to this guy?

4. I know the Suck for Luck contest is in full effect, and my pick to win it might surprise: the Cardinals. The Dolphins have to be the favorite, but the teams that follow really don't have a need for a franchise quarterback - Rams (Sam Bradford, Colts (Peyton), Jaguars (Blaine Gabbert), Vikings (Christian Ponder) - until Arizona where Kevin Kolb is not the answer.

5. I know the Lions honeymoon is over. Back-to-back losses has Detroit at 5-2 and the upcoming stretch will be incredibly challenging: at Tebows, at Bears, vs Carolina, vs Green Bay, at New Orleans. They'll be lucky to come out of this more than two victories.

6. I know teams coming off byes are now 3-9. I'm chalking it up to the new rule that mandates players get at least four consecutive days off at some point during the bye. Is that the main culprit? I have no idea, but it's definitely plausible.

7. I know never to bet against Tim Tebow. Part Messiah, part Steve Young, part bowling ball, part anything good in the world. For some unquantifiable reason, the guy just finds ways to keep his team in games. The miracle in Miami that he pulled off today just adds another chapter to his storybook career. And yes, winning national titles at the high school and college levels, being a first round pick and starting in the NFL qualifies as storybook to me.

Not always pretty, but always effective.

Side note: one of the funniest thing I saw on Sunday was Kyle Orton, Denver captain, going to midfield for the overtime coin flip. It's like John Fox can't come up with enough ways to kick Orton while he's down.

8. I know this was a brutal week for running backs around the league. Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Earnest Graham, Willis MacGahee, Tashard Choice, and Joe Addai were all banged up during game action and Marshawn Lynch was injured during pregame activities which prevented him from playing at all. Very painful week for a lot of these teams.

9. I know the 49ers win when they don't even play. They had a bye this week and watched every other team in their division lose. I might have to amend my guess that San Fran will clinch in Week 12. Could be a lot earlier than that.

10. I know the BCS needs to go. Case in point: in tonight's standings, Nebraska is ranked one spot ahead of Wisconsin. On October 1st, the Badgers throttled the Huskers by 31 points. Makes no sense, just like the whole system currently in place.

For what it's worth, the Big East - one of six conferences with an automatic berth into the BCS - has no teams ranked in the top 24. West Virginia is the conference's first representative at number 25.

11. I know the Ravens will beat the Jaguars on Monday Night Football, 27-16. For some reason, I actually think Gabbert can lead a few scoring drives. Maybe it's his hair, maybe it's because he'll be flanked by MJD. Either way, I think the Jags keep this relatively entertaining.

College Football: Week 8 Picks

2011-10-20T22:06:00.002-04:00

Another ugly week (2-3). Meed to snap out of this funk somehow.

Auburn +21.5 - Love getting more than three touchdowns against a team missing their best offensive and defensive players.

Texas Tech +29.5 - This wager is a vote of confidence for TT's offense. I have no confidence in their D keeping the Sooners under 50, but I think they can out up a 30-spot to cover a 30-spot.

Upset: USC +9.5 - They aren't the Trojans of old, but they have enough talent to put up points and get an occasional stop to keep this one close.

Pick of the Week: Northwestern +4.5 - Penn State is simply not a good football team. Road favorites? Don't think so.

Record: 18-15 (PoW: 4-3; Upset: 2-5)

NFL: Week 7 Picks

2011-10-20T21:34:00.005-04:00

As we've covered before, no winning week is a bad week. However, after hitting my first three games, I finished 3-2. Not bad, but not good enough to make a move in the SuperContest.

Jets +2: I love this game. Really really love it. Being a home 'dog is a slap in the face no matter whom you are playing. Rex Ryan will use that as motivation. Also working in the Jets' favor is the cross-country trip the Chargers have to make to play the early Sunday game. The Chargers are also coming off a bye, which I think is a bad thing this year since players are mandated to take four consecutive days off in a row. Expectations are low for the Jets (that's when they have thrived under Ryan) and sky-high for the 4-1 Chargers. Look who this team has beaten: Minnesota (1 win on the season), Kansas City (2 wins), Miami (0 wins), and Denver (1 win). That's four combined victories in 21 games. Not impressive at all.

Matchups work in the Jets favor as well: Jets D can contain Chargers O; Jets O can actually score on the Chargers D; Chargers special teams are awful while the Jets special teams have been great.

Love. This. Game.

Gotta think this guy has at least one big special teams play on Sunday.

Panthers -1: John Beck is the starting quarterback of the Washington Redskins this week. No one in the Redskins organization wanted this to happen (including their best WR, Santana Moss). Rex Freakin Grossman beat him out in the preseason. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know, you are not a football fan.

Colts +15.5: Give Indy credit. They are still playing hard. For that reason, I think they will show up in primetime on Sunday Night Football to keep this game interesting. It also helps that anyone can score on the Saints defense.

Falcons +3.5: Football is a momentum game and after a tough loss, I'm guessing the Lions will struggle in this game. They felt invincible until last week but the 49ers proved otherwise. On the flip side, Atlanta beat a Carolina team that's no joke anymore. They seem to be trending upwards.

Denver Pk: Did you watch the MNF game against the Jets? The Dolphins are an abysmal team. Tim Tebow's homecoming will bring out the Broncos fans in full force making it feel like a home game for Denver. Your opportunities to bet against Matt Moore are dwindling quickly. Get in on the action while you can. Suck for Luck in full effect.

PSA: This chump is starting for Miami at QB

Record: 15-11-3

The Hedge

2011-10-19T06:50:00.002-04:00

On Labor Day weekend, I happened to be in Las Vegas with a bunch of close friends. At the time, the Cardinals were seven games off the division lead and further out of the Wildcard hunt. The MGM Sportsbook listed the Cardinals at 125:1 to win the World Series on that Saturday. Seeing some opportunity, I put $10 on St. Louis winning it all. (In truth, I went to the ‘book with $50 in hand looking for 200:1 odds. When I didn’t get those long odds, I toned done my wager substantially. Slapping self in face.)

Now, a month and a half later, the Cardinals are in the World Series, and I am left wondering how I can hedge myself. After all, the Cardinals are now 1.35:1 to complete the unthinkable.

The way I see it, I have a few options:

1- Let it ride. The Cardinals have done the near impossible just to get here. If they win four of the next seven games, I get $1,260 ($1,250 for the win + my original $10 bet)

2- Bet the Rangers to win the series (-155). Unfortunately as the favorites, the payoff will be small. A $600 hedge, would only pay out $387. So either I get $660 if the Cards win or $387 if the Rangers win. That’s either a 66x or 38x return on investment. Not too shabby.

3- Take the Rangers +1.5 runs per game in each game they are ‘dogs. Upside: the Rangers could lose and cover meaning I could win both sides. Downside: too expensive as I would need to bet $215 to win $100. Also, these odds are only available when the Cardinals are favored which might only happen in Game 1 with Carpenter on the hill. Game 5 will be played in Texas, and I think the Rangers would be favored even in Carpenter starts.

4- Take the Rangers straight up in every game of the series. The bet here would be that Texas will not be a bigger favorite than -155 (odds of them winning the series) in any individual game. Let’s go through the scenarios using $150 a game wager. If the Rangers sweep, I would win more than $407 as long as the individual game odds stay below -155. If the Cardinals sweep, I’ll have thrown away $600, just as I would have in Option 2. If the series lasts longer than 4 games, it will mean that I have won at least one of these hedges meaning I can re-hedge.

5- A combination of Options 4 and 5. Take the Rangers +1.5 when they are ‘dogs and take them straight up when they are favored.

6- Something else. I’m all ears for suggestions and Would love to hear from some wise guys and/or quant guys for comments or suggestions. What am I missing? What would you do?

For what it’s worth, I’m going with option 4 unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Monday Mullet

2011-10-17T07:40:00.001-04:00

Barry Melrose

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 6

2011-10-16T20:56:00.003-04:00

This will be an abbreviated version as I'm working on no sleep, feel under the weather, and don't get paid for doing this like my boy Peter King.

1. I know the San Francisco 49ers will clinch the NFC West by Week 12. It's feasible they could rest their starters for a month before the playoffs.

The '9ers follow the lead of their head coach. It's clear they want to win, badly.

2. I know the Packers are the class of the NFL. If the defense holds opponents to less than 20 points, I can't see this team losing. By the way, the Rams are averaging a pathetic 9.9 points per week. As good as Green Bay is, that's how bad St. Louis is.

3. I know the AFC South has lost a combined 14 straight games (Colts-6, Jaguars-5, Texans-2, Titans-1) and as a division they have one less win than the NFC West(8-7). There are some bad football teams in this division.

4. I know the Eagles saved their season today. They are only two games out of first place in the NFC East and roll into their bye with some positive momentum for the first time all season.

5. I know the Giants looked good but need a revamping of their secondary. They too head into their bye with great momentum.

6. I know all teams with Week 7 byes won today (one exception was Buffalo but they played the Giants who are also heading into the bye).

7. I know Cam Newton failed to cover for the first time which means betting against the Panthers is now an option.

Dude is human after all.

8. I know the Cowboys wasted a golden opportunity to knock off the Pats in Foxboro. They would have been a game out of first with a win. Wasn't to be.

9. I know that as of this writing only one team in Week 6 reached the 30-point mark. I'll need to confirm with my buds over at Elias, but that seems like a crazily low number. So much for the overs crushing it this year. Overs went 2-9 today in the 1pm and 4pm games combined. Reversion to the mean or a fluke? I'll guess the former.

10. I know you tune in for NFL thoughts, but here are my initial BCS thoughts:

a) Clemson might crash this party. The Tigers have a realistic shot of finishing the regular season undefeated with their toughest remaining game being a road trip to South Carolina on November 26th. They would then likely face Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech in a rematch in the ACC Title game. They'll need some help with upsets ahead of them, but they could be this year's Auburn.

b) Kansas State is getting plenty of love from the computers (average ranking of 7th), but they have a buzzsaw upcoming month beginning on October 29th: vs Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, vs Texas A&M, at Texas. Let's talk if they survive that quartet.

c) Penn State is not a good football team. It speaks volumes about the rest of the talent level of the rest of the country that they are in the BCS top 25. Just watch them for a quarter and tell me they have any shot of being a top 10 team. You will not be able to.

d) Next week's slate of games is pretty awful. I guess the game of the week is Wisconsin at Michigan State. Blah. After that though, almost every week for the rest of the season will feature a matchup of top-10 teams. Oklahoma-Kansas State (October 29), Alabama-LSU (November 5), Oregon-Stanford (November 12), Clemson-South Carolina (November 26). It's going to be a great finish, as always.

11. I know the Jets will win on MNF, 24-21. For more details, click here.

College Football: Week 7 Picks

2011-10-14T07:47:00.000-04:00

An ugly 1-3 week knocks my winning percentage down to 57.1% for the season. Over the long haul, that's not terrible, but taken in context (I was at 73% just three weeks ago), it's not great. Not thrilled with this week's options, but here are the picks which seem to be underdog-heavy:

BYU +3.5

Washington State +21.5

Baylor +9.5

Upset: Maryland +9

Pick of the Week: Arizona State +14.5

Record: 16-12 (PoW: 3-3; Upset: 2-4)

NFL: Week 6 Picks

2011-10-13T20:41:00.003-04:00

A 2-2-1 week would have catapulted me up into the top 18% of the SuperContest standings. On a related note, I have one major complaint about this contest, and it would drive me insane if I were actually in it this year: the standings. Take a look here at how they are tabulated. I think an illiterate three year old is maintaining this site. For $1500, I would expect A LOT more. They could start with the rank. I digress. On to the picks:

Eagles PK: This game is for Philly’s season. If Michael Vick cannot lead his team to victory in DC on Sunday, we can start talking about the version 2012 Dream Team because the 2011 one will be finished. It’s impossible to come back from a 1-5 start and still make the playoffs. In my “11 Things” column, I somewhat boldly predicted the Eagles will make the playoffs which means I think they are going to win this game.

Bears -3: I am not a defensive coordinator but what is stopping the Bears from putting nine guys in the box to shut down AP and forcing Donovan McNabb to beat them? I can’t think of a single thing. Chicago got embarrassed on MNF by a top-5 team in the league. I don’t think they will let a bottom-5 team do the same thing to them on national television this week.

Packers -15: The best team in the league is playing at home against the worst team in the league. This spread should be closer to three touchdowns than two. The only thing I can see working in the Rams’ favor is they are coming off a bye week. Unfortunately, they didn’t get a new team during that bye so I’m guessing they’ll still suck.

Is 6 touchdowns too aggressive of a prediction for this guy on Sunday?

Panthers +4: I’m backing Cam Newton every week until he fails to cover. The Falcons, much to my dismay, are not a good team, or at least they have not played like one this year.

Miami +7: I hate this matchup for the Jets. They do not thrive when people expect them to play well. Miami’s season is basically over at this point, and they are set to play spoiler for the next 12 weeks. Recent history is also working against the Jets as the Dolphins have won their last three trips into the Meadowlands.

In Miami’s last 36 games (2009, 2010, 2011 seasons combined), they are 14-22 overall.

During that time, they are 3-1 against the Jets and 11-21 against everyone else. They just seem to have this team’s number.

Miami is also coming off their bye week. I think the Jets win but not by 7.

Record: 13-9-3

Monday Mullet

2011-10-10T06:42:00.000-04:00

"Ravishing" Rick Rude

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 5

2011-10-09T21:38:00.004-04:00

1. I know I was wrong about the San Francisco 49ers. My preseason predictions had them winning three games all season. Well, by the end of Week 5, the 49ers have four wins. They have a two-game lead in the NFC West and have won more games than the rest of the division combined.

Alex Smith is making believers out of the San Francisco faithful, something no one thought possible.

Their defense ranks among the league's best and should keep them competitive every week.

San Fran travels to Detroit to face the undefeated Lions next week in the biggest game of Week 6. If anyone had foresaw that being the premier game before the season, my congratulations.

For what it's worth, next week's primetime games are downright awful: Minnesota at Chicago and Miami at New York.

2. I know the Giants blew a golden opportunity to seize control of the NFC East. They were 10-point favorites as they hosted the 1-3 Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately for them, they squandered two separate fourth quarter leads and got upset by Pete Carroll's squad. A loss like this is inexcusable. They need to win these games early in the year because the end of the schedule is a proverbial murderer's row. Luckily for them, they only lost a half a game in the division because Dallas and Washington both had byes.

Food for thought: has any player in the NFL had a crazier roller coaster of a season than Victor Cruz? I think not.

3. I know the Vikings finally held a second half lead. It definitely helped that they jumped to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter behind three Adrian Peterson rushing touchdowns. I can't believe it took them five weeks to figure out it was a good idea to get their best player the ball early and often.

Get out my way, rookie.

4. I know it's Tebow time in Denver. The Chosen One resurrected the Broncos in the second half against San Diego after coming into the game facing a 13-point deficit. The fans in Denver finally got their wish / prayers answered. Of course Denver has a bye in Week 6, but I fully expect TT to be under center when they visit Miami in two weeks. My guess is he will have more fans than the Dolphins do since Florida is home state, and he starred at the University of Florida.

5. I know the Dream Team looks down and out, but they will make the playoffs. That's right. The Eagles will make the playoffs despite starting 1-4.

Michael Vick looked pretty terrible in today's game, throwing four picks behind a patchwork offensive line, but the schedule gets easier. They travel to the nation's capital in what is an absolute, no-doubt MUST win game against the Redskins. Then, they have their bye followed by three winnable home games. If they get through that stretch unscathed - a big if - they will head to Met Life Stadium to take on the Giants in what would likely be a first-place-on-the-line game.

Give them a chance.

On the other side of this coin, the Bills looked great, again. Fred Jackson is making a run at the early season MVP Award, and Buffalo is sitting at the top of AFC East. They have an interesting game at the Giants next week which I am definitely looking forward to.

6. I know the AFC South went 0-4 this week. Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis all lost despite three of them being home favorites (Tennessee was the exception).

Oakland went into Houston and won one for Al Davis. Nice story that I'm sure Peter King will drop 1,000 words on.

Jacksonville lost at home to red-headed Andy Dalton.

Kansas City came back from 17 down to beat the Colts. Don't look now but the Chiefs are only a game out of the Wildcard lead, and they may have found a running back in Jackie Battle.

7. I know Big Ben manned up in a big way to help the Steelers knock off the Titans. Roethlisberger threw five touchdowns and put the game away early as Pittsburgh was up 18 by half. I'm more convinced than ever that Big Ben is a bionic man. His leg was bent in about six places as he was sacked last week and the guy doesn't even miss a snap. He is indestructible.

8. I know the Jets impressed me today. Sure, they lost by nine, but they competed for the full 60. The defense looked good, and Joe McKnight is on pace for the greatest special teams season of all time through five weeks. Best of all - from the perspective of a Jet fan - was the running game looked decent, which may not seem like much but is a big improvement. Maybe it was Nick Mangold's return that fueled the change or maybe something else but Shonn Greene looked like the 2010 playoff-version of himself. Very encouraging.

9. I know Cam Newton and the Panthers covered again. Do not bet against this man unless you like losing money.

10. I know the Lions will beat the Bears 34-27 on Monday Night Football. Gut tells me this is going to be an offensive showcase. I'm a little worried that Chicago won't be able to establish the run against Detroit's defensive front, but the screen pass will be a big weapon for Mike Martz's offense. However, the Bears will not be able to stop Calvin Johnson. I'm expecting huge things from the crowd too. Should be electric in the Dome.

11. I know that anyone reading this should make an effort to come to this charity event on Wednesday evening in New York City.

It's a great cause and will be an awesome night.

After falling behind 7-0 against Kansas....

2011-10-08T16:22:00.003-04:00

...Oklahoma State scored 35 points in 8 minutes and 24 seconds. Holy crap.

After the first quarter, OSU leads 35-7.

Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden's stats thus far:

16-18, 225 yards and 4 touchdowns

Not the Way They Drew It Up

2011-10-08T15:46:00.002-04:00

Check out Kentucky's passing stats from today's game against South Carolina:

Completions: 4
Interceptions: 4
Combined QB Rating: < 0
Attempts: 26
Passing yards: 16
Completion %: 15.3% (or 30.6% if you include passes caught by the other team)

Back to the drawing board, Kentucky.

30,000 Visits

2011-10-08T15:41:00.003-04:00

TheSportsBanter.com passed 30,000 visits today. Just wanted to say thanks again to the readers/commenters.

It's been a great 2+ years, and I hope to keep it going for a while longer.

Your feedback is always appreciated.

MLB Awards

2011-10-08T15:03:00.002-04:00

Here are my votes for some MLB Awards for the 2011 season. These will be combined with the rest of the writers that comprise the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. The results will be published throughout the month of October.

Connie Mack (top Manager)

AL
1. Jim Leyland, Detroit
2. Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay
3. Manny Acta, Cleveland

NL
1. Kirk Gibson, Arizona
2. Don Mattingly, LA
3. Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia

Willie Mays (top Rookie)

AL
1. Eric Hosmer, Kansas City
2. Ivan Nova, New York
3. Mark Trumbo, LAA

NL
1. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta
2. Brandon Beachy, Atlanta
3. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta

(Clean sweet for the Braves. Kind of like how they got clean swept out of the playoff picture.)

Walter Johnson (top Pitcher)

AL
1. Justin Verlander, Detroit
2. CC Sabathia, New York
3. Jered Weaver, LAA
4. James Shields, Tampa Bay
5. Dan Haren, LAA

NL
1. Clayton Kershaw, LA
2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia
3. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
4. Matt Cain, San Francisco
5. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

Stan Musial (top Player)

AL
1. Juston Verlander, Detroit
2. Curtis Granderson, New York
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston
4. Jose Bautista, Toronto
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
6. Michael Young, Texas
7. Dustin Pedroia, Boston
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston
9. Robinson Cano, New York
10. Adrian Beltre, Texas

NL
1. Matt Kemp, LA
2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee
4. Justin Upton, Arizona
5. Clayton Kershaw, LA
6. Joey Votto, Cincinnati
7. Albert Pujols, St. Louis
8. Jose Reyes, New York
9. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia
10. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia

This is Getting Weird

2011-10-07T20:07:00.011-04:00

Three famous sports writers have tried to steal my thunder in the last five days. This is getting really weird.

1) I write my "11 Things" articles on Sunday nights in order to beat Peter King to the punch. Good thing I did or everyone would think I was plagiarizing his work instead of the other way around. Look at the first five topics of his MMQB on Monday:

Do these look familiar? They should. See my "11 Things" from Sunday night:

Lions (see #1 in 11 Things):

Cam Newton (see #8 in 11 Things):

Eagles (see #2 in 11 Things):

Cowboys (again refer to the end of #1 in 11 Things where he copies my thought verbatim).

Wes Welker (see #9 in 11 Things):

2) Buster Olney - not nearly as egregious - followed my tweet about 3 seconds after I made it describing Joaquin Benoit's nasty slider:

3) Finally, in today's weekly picks, Bill Simmons basically quotes my article from last night.

BS:

Banter:

Let's go fellas. You are all better than this.

College Football: Week 6 Picks

2011-10-06T23:16:00.002-04:00

No complaining about a winning week (3-2), but it's frustrating to lose by less than a field goal when giving 30.5 like I did with LSU. Would have been a great week but can't do anything about it now except pick more winners this week. Not a very appetizing selection, however.

Kansas State +4 - Undefeated, playing at home, and underdogs? Don't get this spread.

San Diego State +4 - They aren't going to win the BCS Title like I predicted, but I'm still a believer.

Upset: Air Force +14 - Falcons are riding high after nail-biter over Navy last week.

Pick of the Week: Northwestern +7.5 - Dan Persa has not done me wrong this season.

Record: 15-9 (PoW: 3-2; Upset: 2-3)

NFL: Week 5 Picks

2011-10-06T23:11:00.004-04:00

Now THAT is exactly what I needed, a 5-0 week to push the record from a disappointing sub-.500 mark to 11-7-2. It also would have catapulted me into the top 25 percentile in the Hilton SuperContest.

Anyway, the picks:

Bills +3: The Dream Team seems like much ado about nothing. They are hands down the most disappointing team in the league. On Sunday, they will also be without Trent Cole, their best defensive player. They couldn't stop the run to begin with. Now, they are toast. The Bills on the other hand are one of the NFL's best stories. They got knocked back to Earth a bit with a road loss to Cincy in Week 4, but the crowd will be in a frenzy and Fred Jackson is about to run wild.

Eagles can expect to see a lot of this on Sunday.
(I especially love this picture bc of the Jason Taylor corpse in the background)

Giants -9.5: The formula for wagering on Seattle's games: bet on them when at home, bet against them on the road. The Giants are playing great football and I can't see the Seahawks containing Ahmad Bradshaw.

Patriots -9: I try to be as objective as possible when evaluating the Jets, and I do not have a good feeling about this game for the Jets. Sanchez has looked awful. They haven't been able to protect him. The running game has looked terrible (although this would figure to be a the game they break out of their slump). All signs are pointing to a blowout especially with the Pats rolling right now.

Chargers -4: No idea how Denver plans on stopping the San Diego aerial attack.

Bucs +3: I just don't learn my lesson with the 49ers. They've burned me twice already this year, but I'm a Josh Freeman believer.

Record: 11-7-2

Monday Mullet #2

2011-10-03T13:45:00.001-04:00

An old favorite

Monday Mullet #1

2011-10-03T06:36:00.003-04:00

Big day for me means a big day for you. Two mullets today.

Jared Allen (a bit forced for my liking but too good not to include)

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 4

2011-10-02T21:38:00.004-04:00

1. I know the Lions are for real. Any doubt I had before has been erased. After coming back from a 24-point second half deficit this week after coming back from a 17-point second half deficit last week, Detroit is now 4-0 and rolling. Chicago comes to town next week for Monday Night Football in what will shape up to be the biggest game in the Motor City in about 10 years.

The Calvin Johnson - Matthew Stafford combo has to excite the faithful.
I know it excites me, the fantasy football fan.

Dallas and Tony Romo on the other hand are now a couple turnovers away from being 4-0 and a couple field goals away from being 0-4. Still not sure whether to buy or sell on them.

2. I know the Dream Team is staring 1-5 in the face. After four games, the Eagles are 1-3, and now they have to travel to Buffalo and Washington the next two weeks before their bye. Michael Vick can't do much more, but they had two game-losing plays this week: a) Ronnie Brown's lateral/fumble at the goal line and b) Alex Henery's missed 33-yard field goal. Good teams don't make those mistakes. Dream Teams don't put themselves in a position where one or two plays can lose a game. Philly is now two games off the division lead four weeks into the season. Sounds more like a nightmare.

I also have to give the 49ers credit. They came back from 20 points down today on the road and seem to be a lot better of a team than I thought they would be. They lead the NFC Least, err, West by two games.

3. I know the offensive line play in the NFL seems to be at an all-time low. Not sure if it's the lockout (highly doubt it), the increased emphasis on the blitz (doubt this too), or something else (probable but I can't identify a reason), but quarterbacks around the league are getting beaten like rag dolls. Big Ben, Sam Bradford, and Kevin Kolb are all lucky to be alive this evening after the beatings they took this afternoon. I'm guessing there will be a huge premium placed on offensive linemen in next year's draft.

4. I know the Falcons save their season in Seattle this week. It may seem like an overstatement that last year's NFC champs (regular season) could be finished after four weeks but had they lost, they would be 1-3 with Green Bay and Detroit looming in the next three weeks. Like the Cowboys, I'm holding steady for now until I get some more data, but 2-2 is a whole lot sweeter than 1-3, and winning in Seattle is no easy feat.

5. I know the Giants took advantage of a terrible call on the Victor Cruz fumble like only a very good team would. New York is 3-1 atop the the NFC East with the surprising 'Skins and will be a home favorite in each of their next three games (Seattle, Buffalo, Miami). They need all the wins they can get early in the year because they close with one of the most difficult schedules imaginable. Good win for them though.

6. I know the Chargers need to be challenged a little bit. They either seem bored or not that good. The three teams they have beaten thus far have a combined total of one win between them. I hope they are playing possum with the league but I'm afraid they just aren't the team many believe they are.

7. I know Matt Hasselbeck makes the Titans a contender in the AFC. Chris Johnson hasn't done anything yet and still Tennessee is atop the AFC South with a 3-1 record thanks to the efficient play of their quarterback. Their win over Baltimore looks very good now and figures to look even better by the end of the season.

If the Titans can win at Pittsburgh next week,
the rest of the league will take notice.

8. I know Cam Newton is pissing off a lot of bettors. He has now covered in each of the first four games of his career including two of the backdoor variety (Week 2 vs Green Bay and Week 4 vs Chicago). Bet against the man at your own risk.

9. I know Wes Welker is the MVP through a quarter of the season. 40 catches, 618 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Holy crap. Have a season. Looks like he's bounced back from that knee injury just fine.

10. I know that of all the winless teams in the NFL, only one needs a franchise quarterback: Miami. Indy, St. Louis, and Minnesota either have Hall of Famers or recent first rounders playing the position for them. Is it possible Andrew Luck doesn't go first overall? It very well could be because I think the Dolphins are the best of this group, but then again Matt Moore is their quarterback of the present.

11. I know the Bucs will beat Indianapolis tomorrow night, 30-17. The NFL can't be happy with this snoozer of a matchup in Week 4. There was no way to know Peyton Manning would be out, but feel free to skip this one.

Big week for The Banter's picks as I was able to go 5-0 to improve the overall record to four games over .500 (11-7-2).

Separated at Birth?

2011-09-30T21:00:00.001-04:00

(Former?) Red Sox Manager Terry Francona and Shia LaBeouf

(Thanks to Swagstein for the suggestion)

NFL: Week 4 Picks

2011-09-30T20:24:00.000-04:00

Finally, a winning week. First time that's happened all year. Feels good to get the monkey off my back. Now we can do some actual damage.

Giants -1.5: This is not an optimal situation for the Giants travelling cross-country after a huge road victory against their biggest rival. However, the Cardinals are not a good football team. They barely survived Cam Newton in Week 1, narrowly lost to the Skins in Week 2, and lost in Seattle last week. With Beanie Wells listed as a GTD (fantasy football kryptonite), Larry Fitzgerald is their only threat. Assuming the Giants double him all game – and there’s no reason not to – they should be able to leave the desert victorious.

Chargers -7: San Diego let Kansas City hang around for way too long last week. If the Chiefs had one of the top 28 quarterbacks in the league, they probably win that game. Luckily for the Chargers, they don’t and Matt Cassel played like himself in the fourth quarter. Despite the win, the Bolts have to be a little embarrassed that they only won by three despite being 15-point favorites. I think they come out on a mission this week and dominate.

Always tough betting on this guy

Packers -13.5: Aaron Rodgers is going to pick this secondary apart all day long. This should be over in the first quarter.

Seahawks +5: The Falcons are not who we (specifically me) thought they were. They’ve burned me twice this year, and even if they win, I don’t think they’ll cover. Seattle’s homefield advantage is worth a touchdown.

Patriots -4: After an ugly loss last week, I have to think this team rebounds in a big way.

Record: 6-7-2

College Football: Week 5 Picks

2011-09-29T23:10:00.002-04:00

Week 4 was the first losing week of the season as I went two games under .500 at 1-3. The most painful loss was that by the SDSU Aztecs, my sleeper BCS-buster which did not pan out at all.

Better luck this week...I hope. Let's try five games this week:

Northwestern +10 - In Dan Persa, I trust. The Wildcats are a different team with their QB on the field. He'll be back in uniform Saturday for the first time all year.

LSU -30.5 - It's a rare day where I give more than a touchdown to anyone, but Kentucky lost by 38 at home to Florida last week, and now they have to travel to face the country's best defense. How do they plan on scoring in this game?

Clemson +7 - The Tigers proved me wrong last week by knocking off FSU. They start fast every year. Is this the year they sustain it?

Upset: Toledo +8 - The Rockets have had a brutal start to the season including two brutal losses on the road at Phio State (almost pulled the upset) and Syracuse (did pull the upset but the replay officials were smoking crack). This is a winnable game for them despite it being on the road. I think they start their conference schedule off on the right foot with a mild upset at Temple.

Pick of the Week: Boston College -1 - Montrel Harris is a top-5 running back in the country. With him in the lineup, the Eagles can be half decent, which is all they should need against Wake.

Record: 12-7 (PoW: 3-1; Upset: 1-3)

Today's NFL News That Really Wasn't News

2011-09-28T21:41:00.003-04:00

The only surprise here is that Sanders lasted three games. Really a shame because this guy can be a Polamalu-like ballhawk and enforcer, but he has played in less than 50% of games in his career. (Note: I also have no idea what Schefter was smoking when he was tweeting "Reserve-Injured.")

The Dolphins are starting to see what everyone else in the league - most notably the Saints - already saw: Reggie Bush is not a very good player.

Next up: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. "Suck for Luck" is nearly in full swing.

Week 3: Jets Recap

2011-09-26T22:49:00.002-04:00

Final Score: Oakland 34, Jets 24

All you need to know: After falling behind 7-0 three minutes into the game, the Jets jumped to a 17-7 lead by the middle of the second quarter. Oakland, specifically Run DMC, then scored 24 straight points to put the game away.

Darren McFadden puts up video game numbers: McFadden rushed 19 times for 171 yards and two scores. This is a NYJ run defense that has finished in the top for each of the past three seasons.

2008: 7th
2009: 8th
2010: 3rd

They are no slouches, and DMC made them look terrible. Plus, he tweaked his groin in the fourth quarter or the numbers would have been bigger. Guy is an absolute beast.

Dude treated grown men like high schoolers.

Antonio Cromartie wiped out all the good he did in Week 2: He committed four penalties, fumbled a kick return, and got picked apart through the air. F- grade for this one. Needs to improve. He also bruised his ribs/lungs putting next week's game in question for Cro.

Sebastian Janikowski changes games: Oakland HC Hue Jackson knows that if his team can get inside the opponent's 45, he can chalk three points on the board. That makes the Raiders dangerous on all downs and distances in positive territory.

Nick Mangold's injury left a gaping hole in the middle of the offensive line: He needs to get healthy in a hurry.

I'm still not ready to wholeheartedly trust Mark Sanchez: His first quarter INT in the end zone was a terrible, terrible, terrible decision that everyone in New York saw coming. He needs to do a better job protecting the ball. Sanchez also broke his nose in the game.

WR Jeremy Kerley impressed me with his toughness/stupidity: After fielding a punt, Kerley got his helmet knocked off and still tried to gain yardage (even though the play was blown dead). His teammates looked at him like he was insane but you could see they respected the effort.
Losing TE Jeff Cumberland for the year is not a minor deal: JC was a capable run blocker and allowed Dustin Keller to do his thing downfield in the passing game

It doesn't get any easier for the Jets: They travel to Baltimore this week followed by a trip to New England.

Monday Mullet

2011-09-26T06:34:00.002-04:00

11 Things I Know I know: Week 3

2011-09-25T21:54:00.006-04:00

1. I know the most impressive team of the day was the Buffalo Bills. We - specifically this author - have used the western New Yorkers as the butt of our jokes repeatedly for the last 15 years or so. It's time to give them their due credit.

Down 21-0 24 minutes into the game, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick rallied the troops, and led the Bills to a stunning 34-31 victory. They are now 3-0. Really incredible. This team might be legit.

Tom Brady did his part by throwing four picks too.

Two other notes about this game:

-Wes Welker won a lot of games for his fantasy football owners with his ridiculous 16-catch, 217 yard, 2 touchdown masterpiece today. Great game, but it was not enough (at least in the real world).

-The way Brady stands in the pocket - like a statue - drives me absolutely crazy. He is going to get popped one of these days, and I probably won't feel too badly about it.

2. I know the second most impressive team of the day was the New York Giants. Presumed dead after their lackluster performance in the opening stanza of the season, Tom Coughlin has somehow righted the ship in two short weeks. The G-Men are now division leaders. Well done.

Victor Cruz, have a day kid.

And how about that last place Dream Team, huh? They now have Mike Kafka at the helm as they try to save their season since Michael Vick will probably be out for a week or two with a broken hand.

3. I know the least impressive team of the day was the Atlanta Falcons.

Absolutely no heart, no fight, and no excuses. The last play of this game sums it up perfectly: up by three with under a minute left and the ball near midfield, Josh Freeman somehow drew the Falcons offsides on a fourth down when everyone in the stadium knew they weren't going for it. An unacceptable mistake typifying the effort put forth by this Atlanta squad.

Things are going poorly when Roddy White is dropping passes and that's exactly what happened today. After being so high after last week's win, this loss should knock them back to Earth.

4. I know the second least impressive performance of the day was put forth by the St. Louis Rams. The fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter, showed next to no fight whatsoever, and simply did not belong on the same field as the Ravens.

Also have to tip my proverbial cap to Torrey Smith whose first three career receptions (all in the first quarter of this game) went for touchdowns. Nicely done.

5. I know that I am completely sick of hearing analysts, commentators, talking heads, or anyone pretending to know anything about football praise Gregg Williams and his New Orleans Saints defense. What is everyone's infatuation with this guy? Great, he brings some pressure. It means nothing. They are still terrible.

6. I know it's Christian Ponder time in Minnesota. After today's collapse, the Vikings have now blown double-digit, second-half leads in each of the season's first three games. I wish I could verify this was a record, but I can't imagine it's ever happened in more consecutive games.

Matthew Stafford (and the 3-0 Lions), like Josh Freeman last week, woke up in the second half against the Vikings after being held completely in check for the first 45 minutes. Good teams play for a full 60. Unfortunately, the Vikings do not.

This is a bad team in need of a youth infusion.

7. I know the only bad thing about the Red Zone channel is they are contractually obligated to televise games like San Fran-Cincinnati, Miami-Cleveland, Jacksonville-Carolina (no, rookie quarterbacks playing in a monsoon is not entertaining), and Denver-Tennessee. Pretty terrible slew of 1:00 games today mixed in with some gems like New England-Buffalo and Houston-New Orleans.

8. I know that Chris Johnson has not looked like himself in over a year now. He rushed for only 21 yards on the day against Denver, and I would be extremely concerned if I were a Titans fan. Tennessee's 2-1 record looks to be a mirage especially with WR Kenny Britt now out for the year.

When/why did this dude become twinkle toes?

9. I know that no team in the NFL can stop the Green Bay Packer offense. They won the Super Bowl without the services of Jermichael Finley who adds another potent dimension to this unit (just ask the Chicago Bears about that).

You blitz them, Rodgers picks you apart. You drop seven or eight into coverage, Rodgers waits an extra second and then picks you apart. You better be ready to win a shootout if you have any hope of beating the champs.

10. I know that Reggie Bush was the best free agent acquisition of the offseason. Ok, just making sure you were still paying attention. He has been terrible and so have the Dolphins. After a decent Week 1, Bush has 42 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, and a fumble lost over the last two weeks. Reggie, I don't think that big contract s coming anytime soon. Nor do I think the 0-3 Dolphins are turning this thing around anytime soon.

11. I know the Cowboys will beat the Redskins on Monday Night Football, 31-24. Editor's note: In the three MNF games so far, my predictions have been off by a total of nine points.

NFL: Week 3 Picks

2011-09-24T11:21:00.002-04:00

.375: Great batting average in baseball. Terrible winning percentage when selecting games.

Time for a big week.

Falcons +1.5: Both teams are riding high after big wins last week, but Atlanta beat a great team while Tampa Bay beat the Vikings. I think Michael Turner will have a big day.

Raiders +3.5: Love the Jets, but hate the idea of them being road favorites on the West Coast.

Seahawks +3.5: Seattle is terrible, but this is their home opener, and I think they'll have some extra motivation in front of their fans. 12th man makes the difference here.

Browns -1.5: 49ers are terrible.

Chiefs +15: San Diego always struggles when they are big favorites.

Record: 3-5-2

College Football: Week 4 Picks

2011-09-24T08:01:00.001-04:00

Last week, I was able to take advantage of two of the three opportunities I saw on the board. The Mean Green had me a little nervous when they surrendered three early 4th quarter touchdowns, but they kept the Tide off the board the rest of the way to cover. OU used a nice 10-0 spurt in the final frame to hold off FSU.

Another relatively boring bunch of game's this weekend, but let's it's just as kind as last.

Pittsburgh +7: I've wagered against the Fighting Irish three times (two wins) in three weeks already, but I think the Panthers keep this one close on their home soil.

Florida State +3: This line has shifted SIX points in four days as FSU opened as a three-point favorite. A touchdown shift is almost unheard of when the spread is this close to Pick 'em. I think the Seminoles are extra motivated after losing on national tv last week, and Clemson is a bit overrated (see: barely beating Wofford at home).

Pick of the Week - San Diego State +10.5: Can Brady Hoke's former team spring the upset in the Big House? I hope so because the Aztecs are my sleeper BCS crasher this season and a win here would be enormous for their chances.

Upset - West Virginia +6: Just have a gut feeling about this one. The atmosphere will be crazy, and I think Geno Smith arrives on the national stage.

Record: 11-4 (PoW: 3-0; Upset: 1-2)

Charity Event: NYC

2011-09-22T07:02:00.000-04:00

Here is an event that I am proud to be a part of. Please spread the word for a great cause:

(Click to enlarge)

Week 2: Jets Recap / It Must Suck

2011-09-20T21:17:00.000-04:00

This week’s Jets game was about as boring (in a good way since the game was never in any doubt) as I can remember.

Luke McCown might as well have been wearing a throwback Titans jersey because he was the best player on the field for the Jets. Four interceptions in three quarters. Really appreciate it, Luke.

So instead of an in-depth NYJ recap, let’s try something new called “It Must Suck...”:

-It must suck ... to be a Chargers special teamer. Adam Schefter tweeted this tidbit over the weekend.

That's 21+ straight games without a miss. If it were any other team besides the Chargers, I'd chalk it up to bad luck. In this case, it must be Norv Turner's fault.

-It must suck ... to be a Panthers linebacker. First it was Jon Beason (torn Achilles), now, Thomas Davis tears an ACL for the THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR.

Unreal.

-It must suck ... rooting for the Bengals. At least, I imagine it would, and I couldn’t find any of their fans to disprove this theory, meaning it must be true. Good luck with Andy Dalton for the next few years.

-It must suck ... actually it definitely sucks that Jason Hill wasn't “healthy” enough to back up his smack talk this weekend against Darrelle Revis.

There's a 100% chance Hill would have been shut down if he did play. Man up, Jason Hill - whoever the hell you are. If you talk smack, at least play.

-It must suck ... to be LB Lofa Tatupu. Why is this guy a free agent? The whole NFC East can use a former Pro Bowl linebacker. Is it roids? Did he age that quickly? Did all teams lose his numbers? Someone sign this guy.

**************************************************

One more quick Jets thing. As a fan, I think it is incredibly dumb to have Antonio Cromartie play offense. They have four running backs and five wide receivers on the roster, and they ask AC to play offense AND run back kicks? That's just begging for something bad to happen. Please end it, Rex.

Monday Mullet

2011-09-19T06:35:00.003-04:00

The Undertaker

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 2

2011-09-18T23:30:00.003-04:00

1. I know Tony Romo saved the season today with his fourth quarter/OT comeback win. His play, namely the goal line fumble, last week against the Jets was indefensible, but he completely redeemed himself in my eyes and likely the eyes of many others when he played the second half with a broken rib.

I broke a rib in college, and it was one of the most painful experiences for two straight weeks. I struggled getting into bed, and I can't imagine the pain he was in during the game.

2. I know the two teams whose fans need them most in these difficult economic times - Detroit and Buffalo - have made their cities proud and given them hope with their 2-0 starts.

Detroit looks amazing through two weeks, and Ryan Fitzpatrick looks more than capable of leading the offense.

The Bills host the Patriots next Sunday in the only game of the week featuring two undefeated teams.

3. I know the seasons ended today for Kansas City, Indianapolis, Minnesota, and Miami. Nice knowing you, and good luck in your quest for Andrew Luck.

4. I know we learned a lot about the Packers and Cam Newton during today's game.

The Packers need help in the secondary. Drew Brees lit them up last week, and now Newton had his way with them today. Adjustments need to be made if they want to repeat as Super Bowl champs...and I assume they do.

Newton has now thrown for 400+ yards in his first two career NFL games. He deserved a better fate today, but then again, he only has himself to blame as the Panthers had a chance to tie in the last three minutes but could not do so.

5. I know Bill Belichick's cockiness will cost the Patriots a game at some point this season. With a six-point lead and 11:46 left in the fourth quarter, New England faced 4th-and-4 at the Chargers' 49. BB went for it, but the Pats were stopped. San Diego took over on downs with great field position. Unfortunately for them, Mike "Rhinoceros" Tolbert fumbled three plays later. Still, it seemed like a risk that wasn't worth taking.

6. I know the Jets took care of business as any team should when Luke McCown is the opposing quarterback. It's a good thing too because they face a daunting schedule over the next seven games: at Oakland, at Baltimore, at New England, Miami, San Diego, at Buffalo, and New England. They will need a healthy Nick Mangold in order to win the majority of those games.

7. I know QB Jason Campbell and the Raiders deserved a better fate after putting up 35 points despite a) missing their top three wide receivers (Jacoby Ford, Louis Murphy, Darrius Heyward-Bey) and b) traveling across the country to play the 1pm EST.

8. I know we shouldn't judge teams based solely on Opening Week. See: Steelers, Pittsburgh and Ravens, Baltimore. We still can't be sure how good the Steelers are because Seattle is terrible, but their defense will finish at the top of the league again. Baltimore's defense performed poorly in their first road test, and they clearly aren't as invincible as it seemed seven days ago.

9. I know I was pretty shocked to see the Bears throw out a stinker in New Orleans today on the heels of an emotional week that included the passing of Brian Urlacher's mother. I can't really blame him for having his mind elsewhere, but his teammates need to pick him up.

10. I know the three dumbest headbutts of the weekend were:
1. Falcons CB Dunta Robinson on Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin
2. Victor Ortiz on Floyd Mayweather (even dumber was trying to overapologize)
3. Every fantasy owner of Broncos WR Brandon Lloyd on the wall when they realized too late he was inactive

11. I know the Giants will beat the Rams tomorrow night, 27-17. Like the Steelers, the Giants are not as bad as they played in Week One. The crowd will be raucous, and I don't see how St. Louis can stop the Giants rushing attack.

Where Have You Gone, Ike?

2011-09-17T09:49:00.002-04:00

On May 10th, Mets 1B Ike Davis sprained his ankle when he collided with 3B David Wright while trying to catch an infield pop up. This was not a full speed collision. The two were camped under the ball and bumped into each other near the pitcher’s mound.

Result:

David Wright to the 15-day DL

Ike Davis: out for the year

Ike was mashing before the injury: 7 homers, .302 BA, .383 OBP, .543 Slugging…and then he was gone. Not only did Davis miss the rest of 2011, but now sources (hopefully these sources are more reliable than the completely inept Mets training staff) are hinting Davis might not even be ready for the start of 2012.

Please tell me this is some kind of cruel joke.

A 162-game Baseball Season Can Swing on One Game

2011-09-16T06:12:00.003-04:00

The Red Sox lead the Rays by three games in the Wildcard hunt heading into tonight’s game, but the situation would have been a whole lot more interesting if their game on July 17^th ended differently. On that day two months ago, Boston won a 16-inning marathon, 1-0. Josh Beckett - who happens to start tonight after an 11-day layoff - and others combined on the 3-hit shutout.

(The game lasted 5 hours and 44 minutes, about the average time of a 9-inning Yankees-Red Sox game.)

The Rays came to bat 54 times on that day and blew every opportunity to knock in a run. Evan Longoria, Reid Brignac, Johnny Damon, and Justin Ruggiano all left runners in scoring position in the 9^th inning or later.

At one point, 24 consecutive Rays were retired.

Scoring a run in any of the first 15 innings would have won it. But, they couldn’t deliver.

Had they won that game, they could have been 1-game out which would have made tonight even more exciting than it is.

Unfortunately, a July choke-job will almost definitely cost the Rays a taste of October and us a really meaningful game tonight.

A lot of this going on in the AL East this year.

Babb Note: Leadoff walks will kill you. The only run of the game (Josh Reddick) scored after being walked to start the 16^th.

Did You Know?

2011-09-16T06:10:00.000-04:00

Since winning the 1985 World Series, the Kansas City Royals have not made it back to the playoffs. They are 0-for-their last 26 seasons.

At least the fans in KC have the Chiefs…. oh wait. (Too soon?)

College Football: Week 3 Picks

2011-09-16T06:09:00.003-04:00

Feeling pretty good so far about my college football picks as I'm batting .750. Going to be hard/impossible to keep up this pace, but let's try. It's going to be a light week because the games are so uninspiring.

North Texas +47: North Texas' Lance Dunbar can keep this under a seven-touchdown game, right? Seven touchdowns?

Pick of the Week - Oklahoma -3: Until Florida State wins a big one, I'm not buying them as national title contenders. I would call this a big one.

Upset - Michigan State +6: The Spartans have the straw in their hands. Will the Irish allow it to break their backs? I'm guessing yes. Plus I.m two-for-two betting against the Irish.

Record: 9-3 (PoW: 2-0; Upset: 1-1)

NFL: Week 2 Picks

2011-09-15T21:59:00.006-04:00

Last week, I made my picks on Thursday morning. At the time, the Titans were +3. However, by the time the Hilton sent out their weekly spreads, the line dropped to +1.5. Because we run an honest show here at The Banter and because I want to see how I would have done in this year’s SuperContest, I am giving myself a loss even though I would have won the bet had I made it (final score was Jags 16, Titans 14).

Glad that piece of housekeeping is done. Now on to the week two picks.

Jaguars +9: The Jets looked shaky at home in Week 1, albeit against an opponent that will make the playoffs when all is said and done. Somehow, the Jags were able to beat the Titans with Luke McCown at the helm. Their D looked solid, and MJD looked healthy. This Jets team is going to win a lot of defensive battles, and I think this one stays close throughout.

Colts +2.5: The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game. The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game. The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game. The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game.

Bengals +4: The Bengals proved last week they won’t be intimidated on the road against teams that absolutely suck. Cedric Benson’s line on Sunday will probably look something like this: 44 carries, 98 yards, 2 touchdowns. It’s never pretty when we are talking about the Bengals, but against the Broncos, you don’t need much to win.

Speaking of not pretty, the Bengals starting tandem of Benson and QB Andy Dalton has to rank second on the ugliest backfield list (behind Marshawn Lynch + any QB in the league).

Lynch and Benson: neither models, nor model citizens.

Cowboys -3: Tony Romo’s bounce-back game. He cost Dallas the game in Week One; now he makes amends. I’m still not convinced the 49ers are not the worst team in the league.

Cardinals +3.5: A little crazy to think that after two weeks one of these teams will be undefeated. I think it will be a high-scoring affair and when that happens, I like to take the team with the better quarterback (Kolb), running back (Wells), and number one wide receiver (Fitz).

Record: 1-3-1

How Bad Is This Weekend's Slate of College Football Games?

2011-09-13T23:59:00.003-04:00

Alabama is a 47-point favorite over North Texas. 47 points. 47!!!

The actual woodshed behind which UNT will be beaten on Saturday

In case you are wondering, there is a 100% chance I'm taking the 47 points. I might need every last one of them to cover, but UNT RB Lance Dunbar is actually a very good player, single-handedly capable of leading the Mean Green to a couple scores.

(Thinking...)

Really, the "Mean Green"? That has to be the worst nickname/mascot/whatever you want to call it in all of college athletics.

Guess the Location

2011-09-13T23:51:00.002-04:00

Is this pimp indoor pool at:

A) The Playboy mansion
B) The Four Seasons Hotel of Honolulu
C) The University of Missouri
D) Heaven

If you guessed C, you are a winner. Seems necessary.