Wednesday, April 26, 2023
2023 Mock Draft
Wednesday, April 13, 2022
How the Jets Can Create Another Top Ten Pick
Let's start with some truisms.
The Jets are set to enter the 2022 Draft process with four of the top 38 picks: 4th overall, 10th, 35th, and 38th.
The Jets need more than one player to right this ship.
The Jets still believe in Zach Wilson.
Every year we see teams pay a QB surcharge in the draft. That is, they are willing to pay above market price for the right to select the QB they want even if the draft pick value chart would say otherwise.
This is a year without consensus at the top of the draft. Is the 4th ranked prospect all that different from the 20th ranked prospect?
The Jets should use all of this to their advantage and maximize the best asset we currently have: the 4th pick. How should they go about this?
Why do the Seahawks do this: Similar to the Panthers, they have identified the QB they want and pay the price to lock him in. They acquired these two picks as part of the Russell Wilson deal (in addition to another first and second rounder next year. To spin Wilson into a young QB with enormous upside plus still have those other picks next year (and Noah Fant) looks like a win.
Why do the Vikings do this: They have identified a cornerback (Sauce Garner or Derek Stingley) that they think is the best in the class.
Why do the Steelers do this: They have identified Desmond Ridder as their guy.
Why do the Lions do this: Matt Corral is their guy.
Why do the Falcons do this: Sam Howell is their guy and they get him for five years as a first round pick.
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
Mock Draft & Prop Bets
It's been a full year since there was any activity here at TSB. If you are reading this, thank you times a million for your loyalty.
First, let's get a few things out of the way related to the Jets.
1. Thank God Gase is gone.
2. I've spent the last five months talking myself into Zach Wilson being better than Trevor Lawrence. I'm almost there.
3. My dream scenario would be Wilson at 2, Ole Miss WR Elijah Moore or Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman at 23, and Oklahoma State OT Teven Jenkins at 34. Prayers Up.
Next, let's bang out a mock trade:
Dallas trades Amari Cooper and a fourth round pick to Baltimore for the 31st pick. This gives the Ravens the #1 WR they have coveted for years. It also lets the Cowboys take the best WR available at #10 (Davonta Smith?) and then focus on cornerback late in the first round where the value would be much more reasonable.
It also wouldn't shock me if the Raiders traded up for Trey Lance or Justin Fields if they fell towards the teens.
First Round Mock
1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence
2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans) - Trey Lance
4. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts
5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase
6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles) - Jaylen Waddle
7. Detroit Lions - Justin Fields
8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell
9. Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons (seems like an ovious trade down spot for a team trying to get Mac Jones)
10. Dallas Cowboys - Davonta Smith
11. New York Giants - Rashawn Slater
12. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers) - Patrick Surtain II
13. Los Angeles Chargers - Christian Darrisaw
14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker
15. New England Patriots - Rashod Bateman
16. Arizona Cardinals - Jaycee Horn
17. Las Vegas Raiders - Trevon Moehrig
18. Miami Dolphins - Teven Jenkins
19. Washington Football Team - Christian Barmore
20. Chicago Bears - Mac Jones
21. Indianapolis Colts - Kwity Paye
22. Tennessee Titans - Kadarius Toney
23. New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks) - Elijah Moore
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jaelan Phillips
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - Walker Little
26. Cleveland Browns - Jamin Davis
27. Baltimore Ravens - Dillon Radunz
28. New Orleans Saints - Greg Newsome II
29. Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore
30. Buffalo Bills - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
31. Dallas Cowboys (from Kansas City Chiefs via Baltimore Ravens) - Caleb Farley
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Azeez Ojulari
Prop Bets:
Trey Lance at #3: 3/1, 2 units
Justin Fields at #3: 5/1, 2 units
Steelers to take DL with first pick: 20/1, 2 units
Javonte Williams drafted before Travis Etienne: +157, 3 units
Christian Barmore as first defensive lineman drafted: 4/1, 3 units
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
NFL Draft: Jets Pick Happiness Scale
1. Tristan Wirfs
2. Jedrick Wills, Jr
3. Andrew Thomas
4. CJ Henderson ($$$$$)
5. CeeDee Lamb
6. Jerry Jeudy
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
NFL Draft: Crazy Ideas That Ya Heard Here First
1. The Dolphins don't like any of the QBs at the top of this draft. They'll take three non-QBs in Round 1.
2. The 49ers - who everyone expects to trade back - will actually trade UP in the first round.
3. The Chargers will use the 6th pick on an offensive lineman or wide receiver. This team is very good already. Let's play for 2020. Ewing Theory with Phil Rivers?
4. Dave Gettleman will nail this draft. Nah, nevermind.
5. Tampa Bay will trade up for Justin Jefferson to play the slot? That would be an incredible group of receivers - Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, and JJ? Yes, please.
6. Only two quarterbacks will get taken in Round 1. Gimme Joe and Tua.
7. The Jets are going to trade Jamal Adams. And if the return is the Cowboys 1st (17th overall) and 2nd (49) picks, I will talk myself into liking the deal.
Monday, April 20, 2020
[Updated on April 20] NFL Draft Prop Bets
As I mentioned in the mock draft, there is no way that anyone has a firm hold on what is going to happen in this draft. There are going to be big surprises early and often. Let's try to take advantage with these mostly longshot props:
Justin Jefferson first WR taken, 50 units/to win 2000 - At 40/1 (it's actually up at 50/1 at many books), I'll take the chance that someone prefers production over upside.
Jets take CJ Henderson with their first pick, 50 units/1875 - My rationale is laid out in the mock.
Harrison Bryant first TE taken, 25 units/500 - This is probably my favorite value on the board. The way I look at it, all of these tight ends are in the same third round-ish grouping. It may not happen in this draft, but if we re-did the draft 20 times, this guy is the first TE taken on more than occasion. You can't convince me otherwise. Love the value.
Antoine Winfield first S taken, 50 units/400 - Again, for guys "ranked" within 10 spots in the major publications, why is McKinney so much of a bigger favorite than Winfield (or even Delpit)?
Alabama players taken in first round under 5.5, 62 units/49 - Wills, Tua, Jeudy, and Ruggs are locks, but I'm not convinced that any other Bama players go in round 1. This number could get up to 7 so high risk of looking very dumb here but I'm taking my chances.
Jeff Okudah taken with third pick, 25 units/87 - I made this bet right when it hit the board, and I sort of regret it already. Lions have to trade down out of this spot... but if they don't I think Okudah is their guy.
Eagles take someone NOT named Jefferson, Ruggs, Mims, Reagor, Higgins, Jeudy, Lamb, McKinney, Delpit, Queen, Ruiz, Murray, Henderson, Gladney, 25 units/250 - Gimme Antoine Winfield here as the first safety off the board, and I win two bets! Let's go. (Or Brandon Aiyuk works too).
Chase Young pick over 2.5, 35 units/385: There has to be a one on 10 chance that a team trades up to the second pick to grab a QB, right?
Ohio State players taken in first round over 2.5, 25 units/112: Chase Young and Okudah are locks. Then I'm hoping one of JK Dobbins, Damon Arnette, Jonah Jackson, or Malik Harrison to go late on Day 1. Again, this draft will have surprises everywhere. I'm just hoping one of them is wearing a Buckeye.
Keep checking back for more picks.
Monday, April 13, 2020
NFL Mock Draft 1.0
Round 1
1. CINCINNATI BENGALS: QB JOE BURROW, LSU - No surprises just yet.
2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: DE CHASE YOUNG, OHIO STATE - Still waiting...
3. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (via Detroit): QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA - Let's go! It will cost them the 6th and 37th picks this year and next year's first rounder, but there are so many reasons this deal makes sense for the Chargers (they need fans, Tua is a stud, he won't be there at 6, they will be better next year so the first rounder won't be as painful). Pay the price. Go get Tua.
4. NEW YORK GIANTS: LB ISAIAH SIMMONS, CLEMSON - Gettleman has started to address the linebacking corps, but Simmons is a freak. Everyone else has o-line here.
5. MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON
6. DETROIT LIONS (via LAC): CB JEFFREY OKUDAH, OHIO STATE - Love it when a trade down works to perfection. Detroit has to be considering Okudah at 3. Now they get him and a suite of picks.
7. MIAMI DOLPHINS (via Carolina): OT MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE - Traid alert! The Dolphins got their QB at 5; now they protect him for years to come. The Panthers get picks 18 and 26 for their troubles.
8. ARIZONA CARDINALS: OT TRISTAN WIRFS, IOWA
9. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (via Jacksonville): OT JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA - The Bradys move up to protect their new QB in exchange for picks 14 and 45.
10. CLEVELAND BROWNS: OT ANDREW THOMAS, GEORGIA - The run of stud offensive linemen comes to a finish here.
11. NEW YORK JETS: CB C.J. HENDERSON, FLORIDA - The vast majority of mock drafts have slotted a wide receiver to the Jets here at 11. I don't disagree that it's a position of need; my issue is that this is one of the deepest wideout groups we have seen in years. There will be plenty of value in later rounds to address that need. It's a similar story with offensive linemen. So, let's give the Jets a player that is at the top of the class in a shallow position group that fills a position of need. Then the Jets can go OL (Tyler Biadasz in Round 2?) and WR (Michael Pittman or Tyler Johnson in Round 3?) later in the draft. In a dream scenario, the Jets would trade down a few slots and pick up some more assets and still nab Henderson.
12. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: QB JORDAN LOVE, UTAH STATE - Mayock and Gruden have been suspiciously quiet leading up to this draft. I think something is brewing.
13. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (via Indianapolis): WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU - My biggest surprise of the round would be this JJ as the first wide receiver off the board. This could end up looking really bad when he ends up as the sixth WR taken but you can find 55-1 odds out there that he will be the first WR taken.
14. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via Tampa Bay): DT DERRICK BROWN, AUBURN - Brown is in play for the Jags at 9. Getting him here plus the 45th pick would be a coup.
15. DENVER BRONCOS: WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA - John Elway would be doing backflips if Jeudy drops to 15.
16. ATLANTA FALCONS: DE K’LAVON CHAISSON, LSU
17. DALLAS COWBOYS: WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA - Jerry Jones will not be able to pass on this physical freak even if WR isn't the biggest position of need.
18. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Pittsburgh via Miami): DT JAVON KINLAW, SOUTH CAROLINA
19. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (via Chicago): WR HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA - Are we sure this guy isn't just John Ross 2.0? He had 40 catches last year. 209 players had more. I know this isn't a quantity contest but this guy should have been way more dominant with this skill set than just having 40 catches.
20. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via LAR): CB KRISTIAN FULTON, LSU
21. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: LB PATRICK QUEEN, LSU - Every mock I have seen has Philly going WR here (usually Justin Jefferson). I'm not buying it.
22. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (via Buffalo): CB TREVON DIGGS, ALABAMA - No pick in the first round would make me as happy as the Vikings using the 22nd selection - which they acquired in exchange for Stefon Diggs - on his brother. [Folds hands in prayer]
23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: C CESAR RUIZ, MICHIGAN [Insert boring 10x All-Pro here]
24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: WR DENZEL MIMS, BAYLOR - Drew Brees can't play forever so let's get him some weapons while he's here.
25. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CB JAYLON JOHNSON, UTAH - Quick way to revamp the secondary.
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Miami): S ANTOINE WINFIELD JR, MINNESOTA - Another surprise here with Winfield being the first safety off the board.
27. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: OT AUSTIN JACKSON, USC
28. BALTIMORE RAVENS: OT JOSH JONES, HOUSTON
29. TENNESSEE TITANS: DE A.J. EPENESA, IOWA
30. GREEN BAY PACKERS: WR BRANDON AIYUK, ARIZONA STATE
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DE YETUR GROSS-MATOS, PENN STATE
32. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S XAVIER MCKINNEY, ALABAMA
Friday, July 26, 2019
Fixing the Mets in 10 Steps
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Mapping Out a Dream Draft Scenario for the Jets
Pick 93: Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State
Pick 105: Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion
Pick 196: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
Pick 217. N.Y. Jets: Mark Fields, CB, Clemson
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
NFL Draft Thoughts/Predictions
-This is a bad draft class overall, and it starts with the subpar quarterbacks. Daniel Jones is easily the most overrated, but Kyler Murray will play in fewer than 2.5 Pro Bowls in his career...which will be the most of any quarterback taken tomorrow night.
-Daniel Jones is Ryan Nassib 2.0.
-The offensive skill position players are also underwhelming. Maybe that's why everyone wants to trade down.
-In three of the last four drafts, the Jets have taken players that many argued were the best in the class despite not having the top pick (2015: Leonard Williams, 6th overall; 2017: Jamal Adams, 6th overall; 2018: Sam Darnold: 3rd overall). Could history repeat itself with Nick Bosa falling to #3? I'm not counting on it, but stranger things have happened. I'm also hoping Greg Little falls to the top of the third round so the Jets can pounce.
-I would love to see Devin Bush slide to #20 so he can replace Ryan Shazier in Pittsburgh.
-If the Giants take Dwayne Haskins at #6, they are the big winners of the draft process because they have thrown everyone off that scent.
-Does taking a tight end in the top 10 ever work out? Nope. That's why I have the Bills taking Hockenson at #9.
-I don't get all of the Josh Jacobs hype. He didn't start until the second half of his junior year, and now we are convinced he's the no-doubt best running back in this class? I'll take shares of Trayveon Williams 60 picks later.
-I also don't understand why Greedy Williams is dropping like a rock. He's 6'2" and flies. Are we really worried that he's not a great run defender?
-I hope I'm wrong because I love athletic freaks, but DK Metcalf has bust written all over him. Workout wonders don't always translate to on-field success. He has me worried. I'll take shares of Kelvin Harmon two rounds later.
-My favorite fits for player/team: Devin White/Lions and Brian Burns/Falcons.
-My favorite prop bet: Parris Campbell to be first wide receiver selected at 40-1. Worth a few sheckels.
-Three guys that I have not seen in any first round mocks that might sneak into the top 32 (aside from Parris Campbell): QB Ryan Finley, DB Nasir Adderley, and OL Chris Lindstrom