Last week was a very good one (3-1-1) that could have been great if not for one of the toughest pushes of all time. I had USC getting 8 at home and watched them blow a double-digit second half lead and then lose in triple overtime... by exactly 8 points. Brutal game for me, but least it was just a push. Trying to stay hot with these picks:
Pittsburgh +3.5
South Carolina +5
Washington +17
Upset: Texas Tech +14.5
Pick of the Week: Alabama -4.5
Record: 23-18-1 (PoW: 5-4; Upset: 4-5)
Friday, November 4, 2011
NFL: Week 9 Picks
After an 0-5 week, I'm embarrassed. Really terrible work by me. Let's get back to the winning ways:
Colts +7
Titans -1.5
Chargers +5.5
Chiefs -3.5
Jets +2
Record: 20-17-3
Colts +7
Titans -1.5
Chargers +5.5
Chiefs -3.5
Jets +2
Record: 20-17-3
Monday, October 31, 2011
Who Will Be Kim K's Next Husband?
Banter favorite Kim Kardashian is back on the market. Who will she marry next?
Here's my guess:
LA Dodgers' outfielder, Matt Kemp
I have no idea why he's wearing goggles
My reasoning-
He's an athlete of African American persuasion, he's on the cusp of super-duper stardom, he's younger than KK, and he plays his home games in LA. Plus, he's dated a celebrity before (Rihanna).
Almost makes too much sense.
-Back to your regularly scheduled sports commentary-
Here's my guess:
LA Dodgers' outfielder, Matt Kemp
I have no idea why he's wearing goggles
My reasoning-
He's an athlete of African American persuasion, he's on the cusp of super-duper stardom, he's younger than KK, and he plays his home games in LA. Plus, he's dated a celebrity before (Rihanna).
Almost makes too much sense.
-Back to your regularly scheduled sports commentary-
2012 NFL Mock Draft: Take I
With apologies for not writing my usual Sunday night 11 Things column because of a prior commitment, here's a sneak peak at what the top 10 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft would look like if it were to happen today, and it's downright offensive (nine of 10 guys play on that side of the ball):
1. Miami - Some Dude Named Luck, QB, Stanford: If you haven't heard about this guy already, please close this tab of your browser and go pay attention.
2. Indianapolis - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: An incredible consolation prize for the team that misses on Luck at the top of the draft. Richardson might be on his way to winning the Heisman and would look great next to Peyton Manning in 2012. I encouraged Bill Polian & Co to take a shot on Bama's last Heisman-winning running back - Mark Ingram - in the 2011 Draft but to no avail. Now, they are stuck with the trio that brings fear to no one, Delone Carter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown. Richardson would change the whole dynamic of the Indy offense.
3. St. Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: This wouldn't be the sexiest pick, but the Rams whiffed the last time they took an offensive lineman this high (Jason Smith, number two overall in 2009) leaving a gaping hole on the left side of their line. That needs rectifying if they want to give Sam Bradford a shot to succeed.
4. Arizona - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Pretty sure Larry Fitzgerald would approve of this one. I considered Matt Barkley here for the Cardinals, but it's too early to give up on Kevin Kolb. I also think they have a bitter taste in their mouth from the last time they took a QB from USC in the top-10 (see Leinart, Matt). If Kolb can't hack it with the combo of Fitz and Blackmon, though, they'll be looking for a signal caller in 2013.
Love the idea of a Blackmon-Fitzgerald
5. Minnesota - Matt Kalil, OT, USC: The Vikings are all-in with Christian Ponder. Gottaa protect his blind side. Kalil has a great pedigree - his older bro his an offensive lineman for the Panthers - and he's honed is craft protecting Luck for the last three years.
6. Jacksonville - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Jaguars are one of the most boring teams in the NFL. As I said prior to this year's draft, they need playmakers. I completely disapproved of the Blaine Gabbert selection at the time (and still do), thinking they should have traded up for one of the premier wide receivers, AJ Green or Julio Jones. That didn't happen and now the offense is sputtering. Jacksonville has not had much luck at the position over the years - R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - but Floyd seems like a man on a mission this season despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Mike Thomas is miscast as a number one receiver. Get Gabbert some weapons.
7. Carolina - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Panthers, thanks to the miracle worker known as Cam Newton, are actually a decent team right now. The offense is flowing, and now it's the defense's turn to catch up. Claiborne is a shutdown corner that could pair with Chris Gamble to form one of the better combos in the NFL.
8. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Pete Carroll recruited this guy to USC and had enough faith in him that Barkley started from Day One as a freshman. If he slips this far, I think this is a no-brainer.
9. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: This whole Tim Tebow experiment is going to end badly...unless they move him to H-Back and have him carry the ball a few times a game. Jones has plenty of arm to throw through the winds in Denver, and he is the best option left on the board right now.
10. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The only thing that would shock me with the Redskins is if they weren't picking higher than 10th by the time April comes around. This is a bad team with a terrible quarterback situation. They will have a new body under center by next fall, and I'm guessing it will be the multifaceted RG3.
1. Miami - Some Dude Named Luck, QB, Stanford: If you haven't heard about this guy already, please close this tab of your browser and go pay attention.
2. Indianapolis - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: An incredible consolation prize for the team that misses on Luck at the top of the draft. Richardson might be on his way to winning the Heisman and would look great next to Peyton Manning in 2012. I encouraged Bill Polian & Co to take a shot on Bama's last Heisman-winning running back - Mark Ingram - in the 2011 Draft but to no avail. Now, they are stuck with the trio that brings fear to no one, Delone Carter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown. Richardson would change the whole dynamic of the Indy offense.
3. St. Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: This wouldn't be the sexiest pick, but the Rams whiffed the last time they took an offensive lineman this high (Jason Smith, number two overall in 2009) leaving a gaping hole on the left side of their line. That needs rectifying if they want to give Sam Bradford a shot to succeed.
4. Arizona - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Pretty sure Larry Fitzgerald would approve of this one. I considered Matt Barkley here for the Cardinals, but it's too early to give up on Kevin Kolb. I also think they have a bitter taste in their mouth from the last time they took a QB from USC in the top-10 (see Leinart, Matt). If Kolb can't hack it with the combo of Fitz and Blackmon, though, they'll be looking for a signal caller in 2013.
Love the idea of a Blackmon-Fitzgerald
6. Jacksonville - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Jaguars are one of the most boring teams in the NFL. As I said prior to this year's draft, they need playmakers. I completely disapproved of the Blaine Gabbert selection at the time (and still do), thinking they should have traded up for one of the premier wide receivers, AJ Green or Julio Jones. That didn't happen and now the offense is sputtering. Jacksonville has not had much luck at the position over the years - R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - but Floyd seems like a man on a mission this season despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Mike Thomas is miscast as a number one receiver. Get Gabbert some weapons.
7. Carolina - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Panthers, thanks to the miracle worker known as Cam Newton, are actually a decent team right now. The offense is flowing, and now it's the defense's turn to catch up. Claiborne is a shutdown corner that could pair with Chris Gamble to form one of the better combos in the NFL.
8. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Pete Carroll recruited this guy to USC and had enough faith in him that Barkley started from Day One as a freshman. If he slips this far, I think this is a no-brainer.
9. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: This whole Tim Tebow experiment is going to end badly...unless they move him to H-Back and have him carry the ball a few times a game. Jones has plenty of arm to throw through the winds in Denver, and he is the best option left on the board right now.
10. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The only thing that would shock me with the Redskins is if they weren't picking higher than 10th by the time April comes around. This is a bad team with a terrible quarterback situation. They will have a new body under center by next fall, and I'm guessing it will be the multifaceted RG3.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
NFL: Week 8 Picks
Huge 4-1 week sends me over 61% for the season and into the top 15% of the Hilton SuperContest.
Panthers -3: Christian Ponder got lucky in his first start last week. That won't last. I'm going to ride this Cam bandwagon until it throws me off.
Redskins +7: Call it the curse of the bye week, but I think the Bills will struggle after their week off. Washington is the more desperate team, and I expect them to play like it.
Saints -13: It is a rare, rare day when I take a road favorite especially when they are giving almost two touchdowns. However, this New Orleans offense couple with the atrocious St. Louis offense could make this one a romp.
Seahawks +2.5: Homefield advantage in Seattle is worth about a touchdown in my mind. I think the Seattle D can keep this in the game much like they did last week against the Browns. Vegas expects this one to be a low scoring affair too as they have the over/under at just 38, lowest of any game this week.
Cowboys +3.5: Again, that bye week thing hasn't been kind to teams. Dallas has been playing well and could put a huge monkeywrench in Philly's postseason plans. I'm guessing the Eagles win but by less than the spread.
Record: 19-12-3
Panthers -3: Christian Ponder got lucky in his first start last week. That won't last. I'm going to ride this Cam bandwagon until it throws me off.
Those of us backing this guy consistently have been all smiles.
Redskins +7: Call it the curse of the bye week, but I think the Bills will struggle after their week off. Washington is the more desperate team, and I expect them to play like it.
Saints -13: It is a rare, rare day when I take a road favorite especially when they are giving almost two touchdowns. However, this New Orleans offense couple with the atrocious St. Louis offense could make this one a romp.
Seahawks +2.5: Homefield advantage in Seattle is worth about a touchdown in my mind. I think the Seattle D can keep this in the game much like they did last week against the Browns. Vegas expects this one to be a low scoring affair too as they have the over/under at just 38, lowest of any game this week.
Cowboys +3.5: Again, that bye week thing hasn't been kind to teams. Dallas has been playing well and could put a huge monkeywrench in Philly's postseason plans. I'm guessing the Eagles win but by less than the spread.
Record: 19-12-3
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
College Football: Week 9 Picks
In a rut right now, so I'm gonna try to shake things up by making picks in list form.
Kansas State +14
Notre Dame / Navy - Over 62
USC +8
Upset: Illinois +5.5
Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State -13.5
Record: 20-17 (PoW: 4-4; Upset: 3-5)
Kansas State +14
Notre Dame / Navy - Over 62
USC +8
Upset: Illinois +5.5
Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State -13.5
Record: 20-17 (PoW: 4-4; Upset: 3-5)
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
"Suck for Luck" Hath a New Name...
... "The Dolphins Sign JP Losman"
This is priceless. Miami has decided to stop trying to pretend like they actually want to win games this year.
Just send Luck our way already. We'll do anything.
The only win UFL superstar JP Losman will lead Miami to:
the fist pick of the 2012 NFL Draft
This is priceless. Miami has decided to stop trying to pretend like they actually want to win games this year.
Just send Luck our way already. We'll do anything.
The only win UFL superstar JP Losman will lead Miami to:
the fist pick of the 2012 NFL Draft
The Hedge (Update)
As you remember, when faced with my initial decision, I could have hedged at the outset and guaranteed myself either $660 (Cardinals win Series) or $387 (Rangers win Series), but decided to just wager game-by-game (we’ll call it an intra-series).
Game 1, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Lost $150
Game 2, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Won $165
Running Total: +$15
After Game 2, I wimped (stronger words are probably appropriate here) out and took the Rangers to win the Series at -180. Bet $360 to win $200.
I stayed away from Games 3 and 4 in hopes the Cardinals could steal one because the Rangers were -200 to win both of those games. I lucked out when Albert Pujols cemented his status as the greatest hitter of our generation in St. Louis’ Game 3 victory.
Game 5, bet 130 on Rangers to win 100.
Result: Won $100
Running Total: +$115 (with $360 hedge still at risk)
Game 6, leaning towards betting $150 on Rangers to win 165. This would leave me at one of the following two places:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $165 (game 6 bet) + $115 (running total) = 480
Cardinals win: -$35 running total (with $360 hedge still at risk) and put $300 play on Rangers in Game 7
Assuming Cardinals do win Game 6, my Game 7 outcomes would be:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $270 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 435
Cardinals win: $1260 (Vegas bet) - $360 (series hedge) - $300 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 565
Unless the odds spin completely against me, I should be guaranteed at least a $435 payday which is slightly better than what I would have gotten had I hedged from the beginning.
My only regret is the midseries hedge. Once I decided to go game-to-game, I should have held the fort.
In the end, that decision will cost me a few dollars, but overall, this has been a great learning experience and a solid return on my $10 investment.
Game 1, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Lost $150
Game 2, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Won $165
Running Total: +$15
After Game 2, I wimped (stronger words are probably appropriate here) out and took the Rangers to win the Series at -180. Bet $360 to win $200.
I stayed away from Games 3 and 4 in hopes the Cardinals could steal one because the Rangers were -200 to win both of those games. I lucked out when Albert Pujols cemented his status as the greatest hitter of our generation in St. Louis’ Game 3 victory.
The people who do these sorts of things estimated Pujols’ first game 3 homer to have gone 423 feet. My guess would have been closer to 600. Ball was CRUSHED.
Result: Won $100
Running Total: +$115 (with $360 hedge still at risk)
Game 6, leaning towards betting $150 on Rangers to win 165. This would leave me at one of the following two places:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $165 (game 6 bet) + $115 (running total) = 480
Cardinals win: -$35 running total (with $360 hedge still at risk) and put $300 play on Rangers in Game 7
Assuming Cardinals do win Game 6, my Game 7 outcomes would be:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $270 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 435
Cardinals win: $1260 (Vegas bet) - $360 (series hedge) - $300 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 565
Unless the odds spin completely against me, I should be guaranteed at least a $435 payday which is slightly better than what I would have gotten had I hedged from the beginning.
My only regret is the midseries hedge. Once I decided to go game-to-game, I should have held the fort.
In the end, that decision will cost me a few dollars, but overall, this has been a great learning experience and a solid return on my $10 investment.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
11 Things I Know I Know: Week 7
1. I know the Jets did exactly what I expected them to against the Chargers. Well, at least in the second half they did. A fluke fumble by Dustin Keller was returned for a score putting New York behind early. Then Mark Sanchez threw his token goal line interception, and they trailed by 11 at the half. But, the Jets showed some resiliency.
They chipped away and battled back to finally take their first lead of the day midway through the fourth quarter. Then the Norv Turner - Philip Rivers combo took over and ran one of the worst two minute offenses I ever remember seeing. Game over.
The win moves them to 4-3 as they head into the bye.
Another great sign for the Jets is that they are now 4-0 at home. They haven't won more than five home games in a season since 2004 but look to be on their way this season. Now if they could only win a roadie (0-3 so far).
2. I know the Raiders looked like complete fools this week. First they overpay for Carson Palmer, then they start Kyle Boller who throws three picks, and then they let Palmer take a shot only to see him throw three interceptions. Maybe old #3 will turn things around - they can't get much worse - but the early returns are not positive.
3. I know the Titans blew a golden opportunity to seize control of the AFC South. The Texans came to town and demolished Tennessee. Chris Johnson looked terrible again (18 yards rushing on 10 carries and 27 yards receiving on 6 catches). What happened to this guy?
4. I know the Suck for Luck contest is in full effect, and my pick to win it might surprise: the Cardinals. The Dolphins have to be the favorite, but the teams that follow really don't have a need for a franchise quarterback - Rams (Sam Bradford, Colts (Peyton), Jaguars (Blaine Gabbert), Vikings (Christian Ponder) - until Arizona where Kevin Kolb is not the answer.
5. I know the Lions honeymoon is over. Back-to-back losses has Detroit at 5-2 and the upcoming stretch will be incredibly challenging: at Tebows, at Bears, vs Carolina, vs Green Bay, at New Orleans. They'll be lucky to come out of this more than two victories.
6. I know teams coming off byes are now 3-9. I'm chalking it up to the new rule that mandates players get at least four consecutive days off at some point during the bye. Is that the main culprit? I have no idea, but it's definitely plausible.
7. I know never to bet against Tim Tebow. Part Messiah, part Steve Young, part bowling ball, part anything good in the world. For some unquantifiable reason, the guy just finds ways to keep his team in games. The miracle in Miami that he pulled off today just adds another chapter to his storybook career. And yes, winning national titles at the high school and college levels, being a first round pick and starting in the NFL qualifies as storybook to me.
Not always pretty, but always effective.
Side note: one of the funniest thing I saw on Sunday was Kyle Orton, Denver captain, going to midfield for the overtime coin flip. It's like John Fox can't come up with enough ways to kick Orton while he's down.
8. I know this was a brutal week for running backs around the league. Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Earnest Graham, Willis MacGahee, Tashard Choice, and Joe Addai were all banged up during game action and Marshawn Lynch was injured during pregame activities which prevented him from playing at all. Very painful week for a lot of these teams.
9. I know the 49ers win when they don't even play. They had a bye this week and watched every other team in their division lose. I might have to amend my guess that San Fran will clinch in Week 12. Could be a lot earlier than that.
10. I know the BCS needs to go. Case in point: in tonight's standings, Nebraska is ranked one spot ahead of Wisconsin. On October 1st, the Badgers throttled the Huskers by 31 points. Makes no sense, just like the whole system currently in place.
For what it's worth, the Big East - one of six conferences with an automatic berth into the BCS - has no teams ranked in the top 24. West Virginia is the conference's first representative at number 25.
11. I know the Ravens will beat the Jaguars on Monday Night Football, 27-16. For some reason, I actually think Gabbert can lead a few scoring drives. Maybe it's his hair, maybe it's because he'll be flanked by MJD. Either way, I think the Jags keep this relatively entertaining.
They chipped away and battled back to finally take their first lead of the day midway through the fourth quarter. Then the Norv Turner - Philip Rivers combo took over and ran one of the worst two minute offenses I ever remember seeing. Game over.
Chargers fans recognize this face.
The win moves them to 4-3 as they head into the bye.
Another great sign for the Jets is that they are now 4-0 at home. They haven't won more than five home games in a season since 2004 but look to be on their way this season. Now if they could only win a roadie (0-3 so far).
2. I know the Raiders looked like complete fools this week. First they overpay for Carson Palmer, then they start Kyle Boller who throws three picks, and then they let Palmer take a shot only to see him throw three interceptions. Maybe old #3 will turn things around - they can't get much worse - but the early returns are not positive.
3. I know the Titans blew a golden opportunity to seize control of the AFC South. The Texans came to town and demolished Tennessee. Chris Johnson looked terrible again (18 yards rushing on 10 carries and 27 yards receiving on 6 catches). What happened to this guy?
4. I know the Suck for Luck contest is in full effect, and my pick to win it might surprise: the Cardinals. The Dolphins have to be the favorite, but the teams that follow really don't have a need for a franchise quarterback - Rams (Sam Bradford, Colts (Peyton), Jaguars (Blaine Gabbert), Vikings (Christian Ponder) - until Arizona where Kevin Kolb is not the answer.
5. I know the Lions honeymoon is over. Back-to-back losses has Detroit at 5-2 and the upcoming stretch will be incredibly challenging: at Tebows, at Bears, vs Carolina, vs Green Bay, at New Orleans. They'll be lucky to come out of this more than two victories.
6. I know teams coming off byes are now 3-9. I'm chalking it up to the new rule that mandates players get at least four consecutive days off at some point during the bye. Is that the main culprit? I have no idea, but it's definitely plausible.
7. I know never to bet against Tim Tebow. Part Messiah, part Steve Young, part bowling ball, part anything good in the world. For some unquantifiable reason, the guy just finds ways to keep his team in games. The miracle in Miami that he pulled off today just adds another chapter to his storybook career. And yes, winning national titles at the high school and college levels, being a first round pick and starting in the NFL qualifies as storybook to me.
Not always pretty, but always effective.
8. I know this was a brutal week for running backs around the league. Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Earnest Graham, Willis MacGahee, Tashard Choice, and Joe Addai were all banged up during game action and Marshawn Lynch was injured during pregame activities which prevented him from playing at all. Very painful week for a lot of these teams.
9. I know the 49ers win when they don't even play. They had a bye this week and watched every other team in their division lose. I might have to amend my guess that San Fran will clinch in Week 12. Could be a lot earlier than that.
10. I know the BCS needs to go. Case in point: in tonight's standings, Nebraska is ranked one spot ahead of Wisconsin. On October 1st, the Badgers throttled the Huskers by 31 points. Makes no sense, just like the whole system currently in place.
For what it's worth, the Big East - one of six conferences with an automatic berth into the BCS - has no teams ranked in the top 24. West Virginia is the conference's first representative at number 25.
11. I know the Ravens will beat the Jaguars on Monday Night Football, 27-16. For some reason, I actually think Gabbert can lead a few scoring drives. Maybe it's his hair, maybe it's because he'll be flanked by MJD. Either way, I think the Jags keep this relatively entertaining.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
College Football: Week 8 Picks
Another ugly week (2-3). Meed to snap out of this funk somehow.
Auburn +21.5 - Love getting more than three touchdowns against a team missing their best offensive and defensive players.
Texas Tech +29.5 - This wager is a vote of confidence for TT's offense. I have no confidence in their D keeping the Sooners under 50, but I think they can out up a 30-spot to cover a 30-spot.
Upset: USC +9.5 - They aren't the Trojans of old, but they have enough talent to put up points and get an occasional stop to keep this one close.
Pick of the Week: Northwestern +4.5 - Penn State is simply not a good football team. Road favorites? Don't think so.
Record: 18-15 (PoW: 4-3; Upset: 2-5)
Auburn +21.5 - Love getting more than three touchdowns against a team missing their best offensive and defensive players.
Texas Tech +29.5 - This wager is a vote of confidence for TT's offense. I have no confidence in their D keeping the Sooners under 50, but I think they can out up a 30-spot to cover a 30-spot.
Upset: USC +9.5 - They aren't the Trojans of old, but they have enough talent to put up points and get an occasional stop to keep this one close.
Pick of the Week: Northwestern +4.5 - Penn State is simply not a good football team. Road favorites? Don't think so.
Record: 18-15 (PoW: 4-3; Upset: 2-5)
NFL: Week 7 Picks
As we've covered before, no winning week is a bad week. However, after hitting my first three games, I finished 3-2. Not bad, but not good enough to make a move in the SuperContest.
Jets +2: I love this game. Really really love it. Being a home 'dog is a slap in the face no matter whom you are playing. Rex Ryan will use that as motivation. Also working in the Jets' favor is the cross-country trip the Chargers have to make to play the early Sunday game. The Chargers are also coming off a bye, which I think is a bad thing this year since players are mandated to take four consecutive days off in a row. Expectations are low for the Jets (that's when they have thrived under Ryan) and sky-high for the 4-1 Chargers. Look who this team has beaten: Minnesota (1 win on the season), Kansas City (2 wins), Miami (0 wins), and Denver (1 win). That's four combined victories in 21 games. Not impressive at all.
Matchups work in the Jets favor as well: Jets D can contain Chargers O; Jets O can actually score on the Chargers D; Chargers special teams are awful while the Jets special teams have been great.
Love. This. Game.
Panthers -1: John Beck is the starting quarterback of the Washington Redskins this week. No one in the Redskins organization wanted this to happen (including their best WR, Santana Moss). Rex Freakin Grossman beat him out in the preseason. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know, you are not a football fan.
Colts +15.5: Give Indy credit. They are still playing hard. For that reason, I think they will show up in primetime on Sunday Night Football to keep this game interesting. It also helps that anyone can score on the Saints defense.
Falcons +3.5: Football is a momentum game and after a tough loss, I'm guessing the Lions will struggle in this game. They felt invincible until last week but the 49ers proved otherwise. On the flip side, Atlanta beat a Carolina team that's no joke anymore. They seem to be trending upwards.
Denver Pk: Did you watch the MNF game against the Jets? The Dolphins are an abysmal team. Tim Tebow's homecoming will bring out the Broncos fans in full force making it feel like a home game for Denver. Your opportunities to bet against Matt Moore are dwindling quickly. Get in on the action while you can. Suck for Luck in full effect.
Record: 15-11-3
Jets +2: I love this game. Really really love it. Being a home 'dog is a slap in the face no matter whom you are playing. Rex Ryan will use that as motivation. Also working in the Jets' favor is the cross-country trip the Chargers have to make to play the early Sunday game. The Chargers are also coming off a bye, which I think is a bad thing this year since players are mandated to take four consecutive days off in a row. Expectations are low for the Jets (that's when they have thrived under Ryan) and sky-high for the 4-1 Chargers. Look who this team has beaten: Minnesota (1 win on the season), Kansas City (2 wins), Miami (0 wins), and Denver (1 win). That's four combined victories in 21 games. Not impressive at all.
Matchups work in the Jets favor as well: Jets D can contain Chargers O; Jets O can actually score on the Chargers D; Chargers special teams are awful while the Jets special teams have been great.
Love. This. Game.
Gotta think this guy has at least one big special teams play on Sunday.
Panthers -1: John Beck is the starting quarterback of the Washington Redskins this week. No one in the Redskins organization wanted this to happen (including their best WR, Santana Moss). Rex Freakin Grossman beat him out in the preseason. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know, you are not a football fan.
Colts +15.5: Give Indy credit. They are still playing hard. For that reason, I think they will show up in primetime on Sunday Night Football to keep this game interesting. It also helps that anyone can score on the Saints defense.
Falcons +3.5: Football is a momentum game and after a tough loss, I'm guessing the Lions will struggle in this game. They felt invincible until last week but the 49ers proved otherwise. On the flip side, Atlanta beat a Carolina team that's no joke anymore. They seem to be trending upwards.
Denver Pk: Did you watch the MNF game against the Jets? The Dolphins are an abysmal team. Tim Tebow's homecoming will bring out the Broncos fans in full force making it feel like a home game for Denver. Your opportunities to bet against Matt Moore are dwindling quickly. Get in on the action while you can. Suck for Luck in full effect.
PSA: This chump is starting for Miami at QB
Record: 15-11-3
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
The Hedge
On Labor Day weekend, I happened to be in Las Vegas with a bunch of close friends. At the time, the Cardinals were seven games off the division lead and further out of the Wildcard hunt. The MGM Sportsbook listed the Cardinals at 125:1 to win the World Series on that Saturday. Seeing some opportunity, I put $10 on St. Louis winning it all. (In truth, I went to the ‘book with $50 in hand looking for 200:1 odds. When I didn’t get those long odds, I toned done my wager substantially. Slapping self in face.)
Now, a month and a half later, the Cardinals are in the World Series, and I am left wondering how I can hedge myself. After all, the Cardinals are now 1.35:1 to complete the unthinkable.
The way I see it, I have a few options:
1- Let it ride. The Cardinals have done the near impossible just to get here. If they win four of the next seven games, I get $1,260 ($1,250 for the win + my original $10 bet)
2- Bet the Rangers to win the series (-155). Unfortunately as the favorites, the payoff will be small. A $600 hedge, would only pay out $387. So either I get $660 if the Cards win or $387 if the Rangers win. That’s either a 66x or 38x return on investment. Not too shabby.
3- Take the Rangers +1.5 runs per game in each game they are ‘dogs. Upside: the Rangers could lose and cover meaning I could win both sides. Downside: too expensive as I would need to bet $215 to win $100. Also, these odds are only available when the Cardinals are favored which might only happen in Game 1 with Carpenter on the hill. Game 5 will be played in Texas, and I think the Rangers would be favored even in Carpenter starts.
4- Take the Rangers straight up in every game of the series. The bet here would be that Texas will not be a bigger favorite than -155 (odds of them winning the series) in any individual game. Let’s go through the scenarios using $150 a game wager. If the Rangers sweep, I would win more than $407 as long as the individual game odds stay below -155. If the Cardinals sweep, I’ll have thrown away $600, just as I would have in Option 2. If the series lasts longer than 4 games, it will mean that I have won at least one of these hedges meaning I can re-hedge.
5- A combination of Options 4 and 5. Take the Rangers +1.5 when they are ‘dogs and take them straight up when they are favored.
6- Something else. I’m all ears for suggestions and Would love to hear from some wise guys and/or quant guys for comments or suggestions. What am I missing? What would you do?
For what it’s worth, I’m going with option 4 unless someone can convince me otherwise.
Now, a month and a half later, the Cardinals are in the World Series, and I am left wondering how I can hedge myself. After all, the Cardinals are now 1.35:1 to complete the unthinkable.
The way I see it, I have a few options:
1- Let it ride. The Cardinals have done the near impossible just to get here. If they win four of the next seven games, I get $1,260 ($1,250 for the win + my original $10 bet)
2- Bet the Rangers to win the series (-155). Unfortunately as the favorites, the payoff will be small. A $600 hedge, would only pay out $387. So either I get $660 if the Cards win or $387 if the Rangers win. That’s either a 66x or 38x return on investment. Not too shabby.
3- Take the Rangers +1.5 runs per game in each game they are ‘dogs. Upside: the Rangers could lose and cover meaning I could win both sides. Downside: too expensive as I would need to bet $215 to win $100. Also, these odds are only available when the Cardinals are favored which might only happen in Game 1 with Carpenter on the hill. Game 5 will be played in Texas, and I think the Rangers would be favored even in Carpenter starts.
4- Take the Rangers straight up in every game of the series. The bet here would be that Texas will not be a bigger favorite than -155 (odds of them winning the series) in any individual game. Let’s go through the scenarios using $150 a game wager. If the Rangers sweep, I would win more than $407 as long as the individual game odds stay below -155. If the Cardinals sweep, I’ll have thrown away $600, just as I would have in Option 2. If the series lasts longer than 4 games, it will mean that I have won at least one of these hedges meaning I can re-hedge.
5- A combination of Options 4 and 5. Take the Rangers +1.5 when they are ‘dogs and take them straight up when they are favored.
6- Something else. I’m all ears for suggestions and Would love to hear from some wise guys and/or quant guys for comments or suggestions. What am I missing? What would you do?
For what it’s worth, I’m going with option 4 unless someone can convince me otherwise.
Monday, October 17, 2011
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