NFL: Mock Draft 2.0 (Part III)

22. Cleveland (From ATL) (Swag): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - So Colt McCoy needs a playmaker? Here’s your playmaker. I think the Browns could open up the field a lot more along with their playbook, there could be a lot of new plays designed for their two new weapons in Wright and Trent Richardson. McCoy should be grinning ear-to-ear with the way this draft has gone for the Browns. Browns nail two need areas with two big playmakers.

TSB commentary: McCoy would have no more excuses with Richardson, Wright, and Greg Little at his disposal. Love the fit and the pick.

23. Detroit (TSB): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina - Coples came into the season as a top-5 prospect. If this happens, the Lions will be working with a defensive line that consists of Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril (franchised), Nick Fairley, Ndamukong Suh, and Coples. Holy bejesus. Teams are getting wise to the fact that you need to stop the passing game to win in this league. There are two ways to do that: attack the quarterback or load up the secondary.  The Lions will focus on the former.

This guy might be in the green room longer than most expect

Swag commentary: I don’t play quarterback in the NFC North or in real life at all for that matter and this still scares me. The Lions will have no excuse not to get pressure on the QB here. If they can rotate these guys and keep them fresh, they’ll be going 100mph all game long and in the 4^th quarter that can make a huge difference in the outcome of close games.

24. Pittsburgh (Swag): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State - The Steelers have a pressing need along the offensive line and Adams is the best on the board at this point. He’s massive and has all the tools to contribute right away. Take away some character issues that encompasses most Ohio State players and some questionable decisions made early on, he may be a top 15 pick. Steelers have a structured organization and a professional way of doing things, this would be a great spot for Adams to thrive and fulfill his potential.

TSB commentary: This draft almost makes too much sense which means it will go nothing as predicted. The Steelers’ offensive line is borderline pathetic. It’s amazing Big Ben has use of his legs at this point.

25. Denver (TSB): Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State - Worthy moves ahead of his Biq 10 counterpart Devon Still for me. Pairing him with last year’s top pick Von Miller would make the defensive line much stronger than it has been. It will be interesting to see how much focus the Broncos put on offense this draft. A running back might come off the board here too.

*Non-draft related: If you haven’t taken the under on the Broncos wins this year (line currently at 10.5), do yourself and your wallet a favor and do that immediately.

Swag commentary: If I’m the Broncos I try to trade back here. The DT’s remaining on the board don’t WOW me and they have other needs they could address, or get a DT in the second round and the talent wouldn’t be a major drop off. Since Mike couldn’t trade the pick, his pick definitely makes sense. But I can sit here with my commentary and say I’d trade down possibly toward the end of the round, take Janoris Jenkins or Doug Martin, and take a DT like a Brandon Thompson out of Clemson or Kendall Reyes out of UCONN in the second round all while adding another pick or two either in this draft or next year’s draft.

26. Houston (Swag): Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama - In my opinion, Houston has pressing needs at WR and along the OL, the way this draft has played out this pick is in a bad spot in terms of those positions. With their trade of DeMeco Ryans and the departure of Mario Williams, the most surprising defense of 2011 has taken a couple big hits. Hightower could come in and replace Ryans in the middle of the defense and keep Houston stacked at LB. They’ll have to address their other needs later in the draft. I don’t think Hightower’s teammate Courtney Upshaw would be a bad pick here, either.

TSB Commentary: Houston just churns out stud linebackers: Ryans, Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed, even Mario Williams played some LB for them. Everyone keeps making a huge issue of this team needing help at wide receiver, but as long as Andre Johnson stays healthy, I agree they can focus elsewhere this early in the draft.

27. New England (TSB): Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois - With the loss of Mark Anderson along the front four, the Pats need to restock the line. Mercilus led college football in sacks last year and would add a new dimension to this defense that allowed the second most yards per game in 2011.

Swag commentary: I don’t think it’s any question New England needs to improve their defense, and the quickest way of doing it is getting pressure on opposing QB’s. With the Law Firm leaving, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a possible Doug Martin sighting here. Just something to think about.

28. Green Bay (Swag): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama – I don’t think there’s much debate about the fact the Packers NEED a pass rusher opposite Clay Matthews. Matthews had a big year when no one knew he was coming, that all changed last year as he was double and triple teamed much of the season. That resulted in the Packers defense generating only 29 sacks and the loss of pressure put too much pressure on the secondary, who got torched all season long. Upshaw is the perfect complement to Matthews, he’s versatile and can play DE or OLB in the Packers 3-4 scheme. He is great at getting up the field (38% of his tackles at Alabama came behind the LOS) and containing the edge. I think if Upshaw is still around at #28 the Packers would consider this a steal.

TSB Commentary: Love this pick. Upshaw’s not falling out of the first round, and the Packers are desperate for help getting to the QB.

29. Baltimore (TSB): George Iloka, S, Boise State - Here’s my first round stunner. If the Ravens make this pick (a QB-desperate team may trade up to this spot to grab Brandon Weeden), I think they’ll address the safety position.  Everyone is worried about Ray lewis’ impending retirement but what about Ed Reed? Every year it seems like he has to be convinced to come back for one more season. Baltimore lost two safeties this offseason - Tom Zbikowski and Haruki Nakamura - and will need to plan ahead for the inevitable departure of ER20.

Swag commentary: Love the stunner pick, and I agree the Ravens need a contingency plan in place for when one of the best safeties of all-time hangs them up, but with such a weak class of safeties, you think it’s this year? I don’t know. Ozzie Newsome is a great talent evaluator on the defensive side of the ball so if he likes a guy I’m sure he’ll pull the trigger.

30. San Francisco (Swag): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford – I don’t think many people see TE as a weakness for the 49ers, as they have one of the best in the game there now in Vernon Davis. But one thing we know about Jim Harbaugh that can also be said about Alex Smith, is they love to use the TE’s. Harbaugh knows Fleener from Stanford and we all know the NFL is a copy-cat league…. I expect a lot of teams to start deploying dual TE sets thanks to the Patriots, and if the 49ers have these two, it will turn up huge mismatches all over the field. With two big WR acquisitions in the offseason (Randy Moss, Mario Manningham) and two TE’s that can stretch the field, this offense becomes extremely potent.

TSB Commentary: I’m getting sick of agreeing with you, but I love the idea of San Fran utilizing two TEs in that offense. Still not sure any offense with Alex Smith at the helm can be called potent, but I can see you are excited. I will be shocked if Fleener falls this far. In fact, I think he can go as high as 16^th to the Jets.

31. New England (TSB): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - Bill Belichick loves a challenge and doesn’t shy away from players with some off-the-field issues. Jenkins could be the most talented cornerback in this year’s class and getting him at #31 would be a coup. Knowing the Patriots, though, I would put the chances of them keeping both of their first rounders at about 25%.

Swag commentary: I think you’re spot on with that percentage. But if they finally use the picks they accumulated instead of trading them each year to eventually own every first round pick in 2030, these two selections vastly improve an underachieving defensive unit. I absolutely agree Belichick would take this guy, if anything just because he wants to shove it in the rest of the leagues faces that he was able to make a Pro-Bowler out of a guy everyone was scared to take. They need help on defense, now they have a pass rusher and probably the best cover-corner in the draft.

32. New York Giants (Swag): Andre Branch, DE, Clemson - I know, I know, but seriously we can justify this… Lost Dave Tollefson (an underrated backup) and still have the volatile Osi Umenyiora who could be traded at any point. Depth is actually becoming a concern along the defensive line as their stars age. JPP is a beast, Umenyiora and Tuck are often injured, and they need the depth there. Branch is a Jerry Reese type of player – he’s long and lean (6’5” 260 lbs) and has athleticism and speed off the edge. Has a mean streak as well which he displayed against Florida State in 2010 when he gauged the eye of offensive lineman David Spurlock. He has room to add some weight on his frame, but the Giants have been great at developing their DE’s so this seems like a pick with good upside. (In reality, would love to trade this pick and move down into the early second round with a team looking to possibly jump up for a QB)

TSB Commentary: In Jerry Reese’s defensive line analysis, I trust. Look at his track record. It’s incredible. The Giants know what works: pressuring the quarterback, and they regularly find the most qualified athletes to do so.

NFL: Mock Draft 2.0 (Part II)

11.Kansas City (TSB): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford - The Chiefs would love for Kuechly to fall this far, but in this scenario he’s gone which will allow the team to go in a number of different directions. DeCastro isn’t a sexy pick but he’s effective. Kansas City has no qualms spending their top picks on an interior lineman (Branden Albert, 2008), and DDC could start from Day 1 which is important for a team that can be competitive in the AFC West this season.

Swag commentary: I like this pick. I think because he got hurt so early in the season last year, a lot of people have forgotten about Jamaal Charles. If he can come back healthy and be complimented by a reinvigorated Peyton Hillis, this team can get back to its ground and pound style of 2010 when it surprised everyone and won the division. DDC can help immediately and be a big part of the run game.

12.Seattle (Swag): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina - I noted earlier I liked Melvin Ingram as my top D-Lineman in the draft, so to have him here at #12 is great news for Seattle. They are in desperate need of pass rushers, as they were caught using 320 lb. defensive tackles at the ends last year. Gave them a great front against the run, but they couldn’t register any pressure against the pass. Ingram will help all of that with his speed off the edge. Put him opposite Chris Clemons and it would help them create more pressure in 2012 and improve on a mere 33 sacks the team posted last season.

TSB commentary: Ingram seems like a bargain here at 12. Great athlete + position of need + great value. Slam dunk.

13.Arizona (TSB): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - With Floyd off the board and no quarterbacks warranting a pick this high in the draft, Arizona should try to trade down. If that’s not a possibility, strengthening the offensive line is the way to go here. Again, not a sexy pick (that’s two in a row) but Reiff should be able to start Opening Week at a position of need.

Swag commentary: I remember our draft from last season and I was begging for Arizona to take a lineman at #5. They’ve needed help along the line for years, and if John Skelton or Kevin Kolb are going to survive the season, they’re going to need to shore up the line ASAP. Reiff being around at #13 is a pretty good situation for Arizona, they’d be happy to get him here. Great value pick, great need pick.

14.Dallas (Swag): Mark Barron, S, Alabama - Must be nice to be Mark Barron and be the only safety with a first round grade. Dallas needs help in the secondary, Barron would be the best fit here at #14. Dallas has always had a strong defensive front that could get after the passer yet also stop the run, they just need better out of their secondary.

TSB commentary: It must be frustrating watching Eli Manning drive up and down the field against you year after year after year. It’s time for the Cowboys to make some secondary moves. First Brandon Carr. Now Barron. I like the thought process and the pick. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they took a corner here. Barron’s teammate Dre Kirkpatrick could make some sense but the secondary needs to be addressed.

15.Philadelphia (TSB): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State - I’m not buying the Eagles’ interest in Tannehill. Michael Vick is still their quarterback. They need help on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the box. If Kuechly falls, I think they jump on him, but that’s unlikely.

Swag commentary: Eagles have always had issues up the middle of their defense. They would love to get Kuechly, but I think it’s unlikely unless they trade up. Cox works here, helps them in the middle of a defense that had a difficult time stopping the run last season.

16.New York Jets (Swag): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - I took Poe here last mock, and I’ll stay with him. I think the Jets miss a presence in the middle of that line since they lost Kris Jenkins and their run defense and toughness up front has suffered. I think Poe would thrive in a Rex Ryan system much like Haloti Ngata did in Baltimore, I think it’s a match made in heaven. Jets do have bigger needs along the OL so a Cordy Glenn or Jonathan Martin make sense here as well, but I think Poe is the more impactful pick here.

Will Poe be the next Haloti Ngata or Dewayne Robertson?

 

TSB commentary: With Poe, it all comes down to motivation. His teams at Penny Hardway Derrick Rose University were pathetic. They gave up 48 or more points SIX times last season alone. In back-to-back games against middle of the road competition (Tulsa and Louisville), they were outscored by a combined score of 104-7. At some point, the best player on the field needs to step up and make some plays. Poe failed to do that. He’s a workout warrior, but the knock on him is that he didn’t do much in games. If Rex can motivate this guy, he’s a great fit. Unfortunately, this is the kind of guy that has huge potential. I know you are high on Poe, but I think the Jets could do better.

17.Cincinnati (TSB): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama - Off field problems? Yup. Fits a position of need? Yup. Comes from a big-time football school? Yup. Was a consideration for a top-10 pick coming into the year? Yup.

Swag commentary: Guy was born to be a Cincinnati Bengal.

18.San Diego (Swag): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford - The guy protected Andrew Luck’s blindside. With that type of pressure on him the last couple years, it’s like he’s already two years into his NFL career. The Chargers let Marcus McNeil walk and are left with a huge hole on the left side of their line. They need a starter at LT to protect Phillip Rivers. Since they’ve done nothing in free agency, and don’t seem to have anyone capable currently on their roster, Martin becomes that guy. Not like Martin would feel any pressure with that responsibility.

TSB commentary: It’s hard for me to argue with sound logic.

19.Chicago (TSB): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - The Bears have to be getting sick of watching divisional opponents traipse up and down the field through the air.  If you want to contain Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, you need to improve the secondary. Gilmore is a fast climber up the draft board after he tested well this offseason and would provide help against these top passing offenses.

Swag commentary: Stafford, Rodgers, need as much help as you can get here. Janoris Jenkins has become somewhat of a sleeper since we heard his name early on in the process, so whoever Chicago has rated higher would go here and make a lot of sense. Easily justifiable pick here.

20.Tennessee (Swag): Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse - I think Tennessee has a greater need in the secondary after letting Cortland Finnegan go, but the way this draft has played out there’s no worthy options there. Defensive line has been a priority for Tennessee as well, they lost their best lineman Jason Jones to Seattle while they were able to sign Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland. With the lack of depth they could benefit by getting another edge rusher to turn a weakness into a strength. Jones has a ton of potential and could be a sneaky pick in this draft class. His brother, UFC Champion Jon “Bones” Jones, and his impressive athleticism have people very intrigued by Chandler’s own abilities.  Janoris Jenkins makes sense, but the legacy of Pacman Jones is still fresh here.

TSB commentary: Jones seems like he has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than a prospect like UNC’s Quinton Coples, who came into the year as a contender for the top pick overall. We can justify the pick if we are going the safe route. Also have to remember that 2010 1^st rounder, Derrick Morgan can improve this defensive line just by being healthy. He missed all of 2010 with an injury and just worked his way back into shape during 2011. I love the Jones family tree. Their “other” brother Arthur is a defensive lineman that plays for the Ravens. Genetically blessed.

21. Cincinnati (TSB): Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia - The second interior offensive lineman I’ve picked this draft. Yuck. It’s a position of need and this seems like the range he should go so I don’t think it’s a reach. It’s just boring.

Swag commentary: “With the 21^st pick of the 2012 NFL Draft the Cincinnati Bengals select…. Glenn. Cordy. Guard. Georgia. Cleveland is now on the clock.” And that will be the last we’ll ever hear about that pick. If I was in that war room in Cincinnati, I’d be looking to draft a WR like Kendall Wright to take some attention away from AJ Green – plus I’d hate to use a first round pick on a Guard, yuck!

NFL: Mock Draft 2.0 (Part I)

Welcome to Mock Draft 2.0 presented by The Sports Banter - Swagstein combo. In this version, we will identify the players we would take if we were making the decisions for each of these teams. Occasionally, we will mention who the team might actually take but that’s not as much fun.  We will assume no trades, although it’s within our rights to suggest them.

Round One

1. Indianapolis (TheSportsBanter): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - At this point, the Colts have no decisions left to make. They have already released Peyton, they need a franchise quarterback, and Robert Griffin III refused to work out for them. Luck is the guy, and if the team were smart, they would sign him a couple days before the draft, which is legal under league rules, to create a buzz around Indy and hopefully sell some merchandise. They could be the focus of the NFL for a few days instead of just the 15 official minutes which they’ll be on the clock.

Swagstein commentary: Really not a lot else to say…. I agree, sign him already and end the suspense. If the Lions could sign Stafford before the draft without a rookie scale, I’m pretty sure the Colts can get this done.

2. Washington (Swag): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor - It’s a win/win for Washington, they’re going to get one of the top two QB’s in this class and there’s no pressure for them to make the decision – that burden belongs to Indianapolis. Of course these two will be compared for the rest of their lives, let’s just hope it ends better than the Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf episode.

TSB commentary: This draft should just start with the third pick because everyone knows what’s happening with 1 and 2. Hopefully a decade from now, RG III isn’t staring 50 years in prison directly in the face a la Leaf.

3. Minnesota (TSB): Matt Kalil, OT, USC - Finally, this thing gets interesting. The Vikings spent last year’s top pick on QB Christian Ponder and used their next pick getting him a weapon at tight end, Kyle Rudolph. Minnesota can go in three directions here: trade down, take an offensive lineman, or take a wide receiver. If they could, I think they would trade down, but in this mock, that’s not a possibility. So, I’m going with the best offensive lineman on the board. Kalil will protect Minnesota’s top two assets: Ponder and RB Adrian Peterson (who should be back a few weeks into the season). I think he’s more of a sure thing than Justin Blackmon, a guy I’m very high on. I also gave Kalil the nod because in my estimation, it is easier to find impact wide receivers later in the draft. As a point of reference, of the seven offensive tackles in this year’s Pro Bowl, five were first round picks as opposed to just four of 10 wide receivers. I admit the sample size is small, but I think it’s still worth noting.

Swagstein commentary: I think that is worth noting because it’s a great point, and seems to hold water when you look around the league. You don’t find a lot of undrafted offensive lineman breaking out to become franchise record breakers like Victor Cruz. Offensive lines are built in the draft, usually not sexy picks, but when your RB is dominating the league you tend to appreciate them more.

4. Cleveland (Swag): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - This pick is a little more difficult than it may seem. Trent Richardson is an immense talent, but the Cleveland Browns are lacking serious weapons. They have no WR’s that make plays, but also don’t have a QB capable of making them. I would say the war room is going to get a little heated on this one, you would love to have Richardson as a weapon in the backfield, but how long can your franchise go without a QB? Ryan Tannehill’s stock is sky rocketing, mainly because of team need instead of pure talent. I think he’s going to be more of a project considering he hasn’t been a QB all that long, but the tools are there. I think his upside dwarfs Colt McCoy’s who has virtually none, so I could see the Browns stopping to think here. Eventually they go with Richardson who fills a hole in their backfield while they wait another year for some sort of hope at QB as they kick themselves for whiffing on a deal with the Rams to take RGIII with the second pick. It has to be horrible being a Browns fan.

Trent Richardson, class act and soon to be face of a franchise

TSB commentary: Let me say upfront, I’m no Colt McCoy fan. However, he has never had a weapon at wide receiver at his disposal. In order to get a true read on how good (or terrible) McCoy is, I think the Browns need to give him an actual target, namely Justin Blackmon. Richardson is my favorite player in the draft so I can’t be too hard on the pick, but I think Blackmon is the better fit. One thing we can both agree on is that being a fan of any Cleveland franchise is a terrible fate.

5. Tampa Bay (TSB): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - I’m tempted to take Blackmon here to give Josh Freeman another weapon outside with Vincent Jackson, but this team has bigger needs elsewhere. Richardson would be a great fit if he falls this far, but the pick is Claiborne. Thankfully, you don’t need a high IQ to play in this league because my boy scored a 4 on Wonderlic, making him exactly twice as dumb as Vince Young. Quite an accomplishment. Claiborne is a shutdown corner and in a division with Roddy White, Julio Jones, Steve Smith, and all the targets at Drew Brees’ disposal, stopping the pass has to be the top goal for every defense. He is Ronde Barber’s heir apparent assuming Ronde actually retires one day.

Swagstein commentary: Solid pick for all above reasons stated.

6. St. Louis (Swag): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Not sure Sam Bradford could be any happier here, well maybe the entire St. Louis Rams organization. They trade back to number 6, get an extra first round pick for the next two years, not to mention additional picks and still get the guy they wanted at number 2. It’s a dream scenario for the Rams and if it plays out this way they will have orchestrated one of the greatest trade backs I’ve ever seen. It will be nice to see Bradford in his third year with a young talented WR like this at his disposal.

TSB commentary: Great point. Pretty amazing if this scenario came to fruition. They still get the guy they wanted, they pay him less than they would have, and they get an extra second rounder this year and first rounders in 2013 and 2014. This might be the best deal in sports since Bartolo Colon was traded for a combination of Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, AND Grady Sizemore.

7.Jacksonville (TSB): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - Is this a reach? Probably, but this team needs playmakers. Laurent Robinson cannot be the number one receiver on a team contending for the Super Bowl. It just isn’t happening. Like the Browns with Colt McCoy, the Jaguars need to give Blaine Gabbert some talent in order to see what kind of player he is. Last year was an atrocity, but adding Floyd to the mix might get Sunshine back on track.

Swagstein commentary: Hard to disagree with this for a team that finished dead last or close to last in almost all passing categories last season. If this is looked at as a reach…. Do they trade back? Plausible Floyd is available in the mid teens, so wouldn’t be shocking to see them move. But I also think the Jaguars could use help along the defensive front, so wouldn’t be shocked to see them go there with their pick of the litter at pick number 7.

8. Miami (Swag): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - Like I said earlier, maybe not the big time talent you see when you get a QB in the top 10 (Unless we flash back to Blaine Gabbert), but Miami has no QB’s on their roster signed past this year. Take Tannehill, work with him for a full season, DO NOT PLAY HIM, and get him ready for 2013. I don’t think the Dolphins are one or two pieces away from a championship right now, let’s be serious, they can’t even contend for their own division…. That said, let him hold a clipboard, develop him, use patience, and for once have a QB you can use for the foreseeable future. He has a high ceiling due to the fact he’s so new to the position, but the raw skills are there. He could be a very solid NFL starter if the Dolphins can be patient and devote themselves to developing their new QB.

TSB commentary: If the move is to take Tannehill and groom him for the future, I’m ok with that. If the move is to draft him and start him from Day 1, Miami is in trouble. Tannehill has only played QB for two years and was pretty terrible against good defensive competition. Athleticism and arm strength can get you very far during individual workouts which is why he’s shooting up draft boards, but I need to see more production on the field before I give him the keys to the franchise.

9. Carolina (TSB): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU - The defensive side of the ball has to be the focus for the Panthers, but I’m not completely sold on Brockers, especially this high. I think he’ll be the best defensive lineman in the class, and he has some versatility (he can play the DT position or line up at DE). Like Tannehill, this is a pick based more on upside than on-field production.  

Swagstein commentary: I like Melvin Ingram here, just personal preference. But I agree defensive line is the way to go, and according to our draft it looks like they’ll have their choice of anyone they want. Good spot to be for Carolina.

10. Buffalo (Swag): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College - Bills haven’t taken an offensive lineman since 2002, so what makes you think they do it now? Kuechly is an absolute machine and would be a fan favorite in Buffalo as the center of a vastly improved defense. This defense was near the bottom of the league against the run last season, they added Mario Williams to the line and with Kuechly in the middle this defense becomes very formidable. My pick a couple months ago for the Bills was Kuechly and it hasn’t changed. Staying here. If Michael Floyd was on the board I’d do a double take, but love this pick.

TSB commentary: The history of drafting linebackers in the top 10 is terrible, but it is very hard to argue with one of the most productive linebackers to ever play college football. He’s a tackling machine who looks like a model citizen off the field. If this is the route the Bills D is vastly improved. It’s not like the Bills had success in 2002 when they drafted Mike Williams, who ate himself out of the league.

MLB Preview

Every year when I do my predicted standings article, I go through the exercise without doing the math of calculating how many games there are to be won just to see where I come out. With 30 teams each playing 162 games, there are only 2,430 wins and 2,430 losses to be had. This year before my adjustments, I had the teams finishing a combined 120 games under .500 (2,370-2,490).

I am not exactly optimistic about many teams this year, and that lack of optimism begins with my favorite team, the New York Mets. In all my years of fandom - let's call it 25 years to be safe - I cannot remember being less excited about the potential for success in Flushing. The fact Johan is starting on Opening Day is a small consolation at least, but the pieces just aren’t here to compete. In what figures to be a long season for me, here are my predictions:

*Projected Standings           
    NYY    92    70
    TB    89    73
    Tor    88    74
    Bos    86    76
    Bal    64    98
           
    Det    92    70
    Min    78    84
    KC    76    86
    CWS    75    87
    Cle    73    89
           
           
    LAA    94    68
    Tex    90    72
    Oak    71    91
    Sea    70    92
           
           
    Wash    87    75
    Mia    85    77
    Phi    85    77
    Atl    85    77
    NYM    74    88
           
    Cin    91    71
    StL    85    77
    Mil    85    77
    Chi    78    84
    Pit    74    88
    Hou    52    110
           
    SD    87    75
    Ari    85    77
    SF    85    77
    Col    77    85
    LAD    77    85
           
           
*I think the idea of adding a fifth playoff was poorly planned. It took until March to decide whether or not it was even going to happen. These things should not be rushed. It would serve MLB right if seven teams tied for the final two playoff spots. Good luck figuring out those tiebreakers.       


*I'm riding the San Diego Padres as my sleeper team this year. They are currently 25-1 to win the NL West which seems like a steal since none of the other four teams in the division scares me. 
           
           
*Playoffs:           
    Wildcard Play-ins       
           
        TB over Texas   
        Miami over Arizona   
           
    First Round       
           
        LAA over TB   
        Det over NYY   
        Cin over Mia   
        Wash over SD   
                     
    Second Round       
           
        LAA over Det   
        Cin over Wash   
           
    World Series       
           
        LAA over Cin   

Get used to seeing this guy a lot this year. For what it’s worth, I think he would make a better GM than Billy Beane too.

         
           
*Awards           
    AL MVP: Jose Bautista, Tor       
    AL Cy Young: Justn Verlander, Det       
           
    NL MVP: Joey Votto, Cin       
    NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright, StL

Finally, I'm Back, and It Feels Good

Big ups to my brother-in-law Matt for fixing my computer issues this weekend. Between work being busy, an apartment move, and a dead computer, my posts went from infrequent to nonexistent. Now that the PC is good to go, and we are situated in the new digs, I hope to post more often.  

The Tebow Trade

I love the Tim Tebow trade. To me, there are four potential reasons for making this deal (ranked in order of likelihood):

1) Wildcat / Special Package Guy: The Jets might actually think he could be useful running the Wildcat, playing H-back, or serving as a decoy.He makes their offense better by doing any of those things. The Jets missed Brad Smith last season running the Wildcat so maybe Tebow can fill that void. We know his arm cannot be trusted, but assuming he's not asked to throw the ball, his addition will be beneficial to this offense.

2) A challenger to Mark Sanchez: If Sanchez can't handle a little heat and some boos, he's not a franchise quarterback. Plain and simple. Great players rise to challenges. It's time for GQ Mark to prove to the New York faithful that he can be our man. If he's not, it's a little more comforting handing the reins to Tebow rather than the ageless Mark Brunell.

3) A marketing ploy: Even if this deal was made just to make some money and garner a whole bunch of headlines, it's brilliant. The crosstown Giants just won the Super Bowl and six weeks later everyone is talking about the Jets, not the champs. Brilliant.

4) It's comforting to have Jesus around:Always good to have some help from upstairs.

I personally don't know which of these factors set them over the edge to pull the trigger, and as a Jets fan, I don't care. They are all good things for the franchise, and the deal cost almost nothing to accomplish.

Arizona Trip

My wife and I went to Arizona for a long weekend, and it turned out to be one of the greatest four day stretches of my life. We got to Phoenix on Thursday at noon. 

Twenty minutes later, I met Dave Winfield in the airport.

A few hours later we were enjoying the Sweet 16. Louisville, in their bright orange uniforms, pulled the upset over top-seeded Michigan State. The game was a bit of a snoozer, but the atmosphere was awesome. We then witnessed Bradley Beal coming of age against Marquette in Florida's upset. I had never been to the NCAA Tourney and it lived up to the billing.

The actual reason we went westward was for good friend and loyal reader Brian Morley's wedding was incredible. Weather was perfect for the outdoor wedding, food was great, and the drinks were flowing. We also got to see an old pal getting his groove on (sorry for my shaky camerawork):

On Sunday, we went to the Salt River Fields at Talking Stick to watch the Rockies take on the Reds in Sprint Training action. The complex is among the nicest I've ever seen, and the crowd was jam-packed into the stadium. Over 12,000 people witnessed the game, which was just shy of the attendance to the Sweet 16 on Thursday.

Hunger Games

Nothing I hate more than someone ruining a movie for me so I won't do that for you by getting into plot lines and spoilers but here are a few thoughts:

-Despite having read none of the books in the series I enjoyed this movie a lot.
-To me, it was a perfect combination of one of my favorite movies (Apocalypto) and one by favorite short stories (The Lottery by Shirley Jackson).
-Elizabeth Banks looks good no matter what costume she's in.
-I recommend seeing it if you have not done so already.


NCAA Title Prediction

Kentucky 77, Kansas 72



MLB predictions will be posted Wednesday morning.

Twitter: @mspici

Separated at Birth

 

The Sonic commercial guy and NY Knicks F Steve Novak

Blog Update / Preview

I apologize for the lack of recent posts. Work has been crazy, and I also mixed in a long weekend trip to Arizona this past weekend. Among other things, here is what you can expect over the coming days.

-Arizona trip recap

                +Sweet 16 games

                +Wedding

                +Spring Training

                +Hunger Games

-NCAA tournament thoughts

-Tebow reaction

-Jets/Giants draft needs

-Separated at Birth
-MLB Preview

NCAA Tourney Thoughts: Midwest Region

*My favorite underseeded team in the tournament: Detroit. If I had any courage whatsoever, I would pick them to upset Kansas...but I don't. Still, if you can get the Titans at +14, grab it quickly. These guys, specifically Ray McCallum Jr., can play.

*This is my upset region. I think Belmont, Ohio, Purdue, NC State and South Florida can all pull shockers (as well as Detroit).
 
Projected Region Winner:Noth Carolina over Kansas.

NCAA Tourney Thoughts: East Region

*I love the guard-heavy Texas vs Cincy matchup. The Longhorns have overachieved this season while the Bearcats used a midseason rumble to turn their season around. I think Cincy is the better team, but if you get upset points, take a shot on UT even if it means supporting Rick Barnes.

*Everyone loves Florida State's defense, but do they have the offense to compete? Against St Bonventure, most likely, but after that, things could get dicey if Mike Snaer goes cold.

*Fab Melo or not, Syracuse is not losing to UNCA. You can move Ohio State ahead in your brackets too as Loyola won't be much of a threat.

*It might be a home game in terms of distance for West Virginia, but if you think anyone in the city of Pittsburgh not affiliated with the Mountaineers will be rooting for them, you are insane. I think Gonzaga got screwed by being shipped all the way east, but I think they are the superior team here.

*Vandy is the trendy pick in this region and for good reason. They just won the SEC tournament and knocked off Kentucky in the process. Usually when everyone thinks a middle of the road seed will make moves, the exact opposite happens. Be cautious before penciling this team into the Elite 8 or further.

*Southern Miss does nothing to get me excited, and Frank Martin scares me so I'll go with Kansas State.

*Montana didn't pass my eye test, but they seem worth a shot if you are looking for an upset in this region because Wisconsin regularly chokes in these types of situations.

Projected Region Winner: Ohio State over Vanderbilt (going against my own cautions here will undoubtedly screw me).

I trust the man on the left enough to overcome my lack of faith in the man on the right.

The Midwest breakdown will be coming tomorrow.

NCAA Tourney Thoughts: West Region

*If any 16 seed is going to win this year, my money is on LIU Brooklyn. They have three legit players and put up points. Not saying it will happen, but it could.

*Both Florida and Virginia come into this tournament having lost three of their last four games, but I think Patric (leave off the last k for no good reason) Young can shut down Mike Scott and lead the Gators to victory. Brad Beal is too good to go home after one game.

*Toughest game of the bracket features St. Louis and Memphis, but I'll take talented offense over talented defense in almost every case. Memphis can score and comes in as one of the hottest teams in the nation. I'm not worried about the lack of size on the Tigers roster because the Billikens don't have much in the way of size either. I'm riding Will Barton here.

*Two more teams that lack any size face off in this region as well: Murray State and Colorado State. Although CSU isn't a power conference team, this is a statement game for the MSU. Are they a legit 30+ win team or a product of an awful conference? If you get bonus points for upsets, you do worse than taking a shot on the Rams.

*BYU comes in to this game against Marquette with scary momentum. It's not every day you come back from 25 and the brink of elimination to win. Marquette has the superior talent, but this is a dangerous game for them.

*Louisville lost four of six games heading into the Big East tournament. So, of course they went out and dominated the competition en route to the title. This team is impossible to predict. We have no idea which team will show up so let's see what Davidson brings to the table. They didn't pass my eye test during the SoCon tournament but they have only one bad loss (at Samford) and seem like a legitimate threat here. They have five double-digit scorers, a big man, and a go-to scorers. Also love the fact that head coach Bob McKillop knows Rick Pitino from childhood (great point made by Jay Wright). Upset city here.

*Long Beach State is also a dangerous team in this region. If Larry Anderson plays (injured ankle), they can give New Mexico a run for their money. This is another game pitting two teams that can make deep runs in March. Hate that they are playing each other in Round 1.

Projected Region Winner: Marquette over New Mexico.

NCAA Tourney Thoughts: South Region

*UConn struggled mightily this year, but they still have two lottery prospects in Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb. Iowa State has zero impressive road wins to its credit this year. I'm encouraged enough by the Huskies' performance at MSG last week that I like them to advance in this first round matchup. I don't, however, foresee much chance of them surviving the weekend.

*I watched South Dakota State play in the the Summit League finals against Western Illinois and saw nothing that would lead me to believe they can upset Baylor in Round 1 (I know it's technically Round 2 but that's crap). Nate Wolters has never seen athletes like Perry Jones III or Quincy Acy before. I'm not buying the Seth Davis-infused Jackrabbits hype.

By the way, if your name includes III and you are a stud athlete, it is now mandatory you attend Baylor.

*As a fan, I'm going to love the VCU-Wichita State matchup. As a bracket picker, I hate it. Still haven't decided who to back in this one.

*New Mexico State has a guy named Sim Bhullar that's 7'5". He won't help this year since he hasn't played a minute all season, but this Aggies team has a bunch of my upset potential criteria: size in the middle (check), a dynamic scorer (Wendell McKines), at least three double-digit scorers (check; they have four), and a random dude with an awesome name (check; Tshilidizi Nephawe). They've also won 12 of their last 14. To top it off, IU just lost their emotional leader Verdell Jones. If the bigs for NMSU can keep Cody Zeller in check, an upset could be abrewing.

*Impostor alert: Colorado Buffaloes. This team is grossly overseeded. They played well this week in the (pathetic) Pac 12 Conference tournament. Prior to that, though, they gave no indication they could play at a high level. They have no size, and I expect UNLV to dominate inside and on the boards on the way to victory.

*It's Duke so we knew they would get a big break somehow, and they did. The ir first two games of the tournament will basically be home games in Greensboro. God, I wish they were playing Detroit and not Lehigh.

*Notre Dame seems primed to bow out of the NCAA Tournament early... again.

Projected Region Winner: Kentucky over Baylor. Too much talent on this team.

Izzy, Sharpe, and Some Other (Minorly Depressing) Sports Links

-Are you really telling me that Jason Isringhausen preferred not to be traded last season at the deadline but then signed with the Angels this offseason? Wake up, Sandy. Do what's best for your team.

-Sad story about Glenn Sharpe. Hopefully, it's not true.

-Please join me in welcoming Janoris Jenkins to the Shawn Kemp, Antonio Cromartie, Travis Henry All Stars. In his most recent MMQB, Peter King had this to say about JJ:


He's 23. He's a top talent, and likely will go in the first round. He's also been arrested three times, once for a bar fight and twice for marijuana possession. He has four children three or younger (Janoris Jr., Legend, Janorian and Paris) by three different mothers. "I've made a few mistakes and I've learned from them,'' he said at the combine. 

-Remember Lenny Cooke, the NYC prospect that was considered a better prospect than LeBron? Here he is now:

Yikes

-Speaking of prospects that flamed out early, Brien Taylor was arrested this week.

-And in much less surprising news, so was Marcus Vick.

Separated at Birth

Philadelphia 76ers C Spencer Hawes and Olympian Michael Phelps