I haven't been all that active with the blogging recently. Life has been in the way. So, I'm trying something new this baseball season: a "Trade of the Week" column.
The first TotW will be posted next Friday (3/14), and I'll try to post - as the title would suggest - one per week. Let's see how it goes. The trades will likely be Mets-centric (including the first deal) but I will try to involve as many teams as possible.
As always feedback is welcome on the proposals.
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014
Feedback on Jim Bowden Article
Former Nationals GM Jim Bowden penned an article which is
pretty terrible (shocking). He wants the Mets to sign Stephen Drew. I do not
want that to happen.
Article can be found here.
My issues with this article start in the first sentence.
What great strides have the Mets made? They have some solid upper level
pitching prospects, yes. When you draft in the top-15 every year, you are bound
to have top prospects. (I know they dealt for Wheeler and Syndy and D’Arnaud
too.) But, they haven’t made the playoffs in 7 years. They haven’t won more
than 79 games since 2008. Because they have some prospects now, they have made
great strides? Not buying it until I see some actual results on the field.
My issues continue when you say Stephen Drew is the answer
to any question. He is the prototypical Mets free agent signing flop. Glaring
holes in his offensive game with limited upside. Mix in some injury history and
this has all the makings of a horror show.
At a reasonable price, sure he’s attractive but at $11m+, I would
much rather save the money and go after a difference maker either at the
deadline if the Mets are still in contention (unlikely) or next offseason.
[Of course this brings up another joke: Mets ownership.
Thinking that a team playing in the largest media market in the world needs to “save”
money is a travesty. Sell the team, Wilpons. We beg you. I digress…]
Another basis for spending $22m on Stephen Drew is because of
the extra “pitcher confidence” gained by winning three extra games over a
162-game season? Really? Going from 88 to 91 wins puts the Mets in the
playoffs. I can see a 3-win improvement there making sense but not for confidence’s
sake. Going from 81 to 84 though doesn’t do anything for you. To think
otherwise is idiotic.
Monday, February 17, 2014
NBA Made-Up-Trade-of-the-Day: Knicks/Bobcats
It's readily apparent to anyone watching the Knicks these days: the team stinks. It's time to blow it up and start from scratch. The only way to do that as far as I can see is by dealing Melo.
I'm an avid Melo defender and fan. I love him as a player, but the rest of this crew is abysmal.
Tell me why this doesn't work:
Melo, JR Smith, and Ray Felton to the Bobcats for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon's contract, Jeff Adrien, and Anthony Tolliver
The two biggest factors that make this a great deal:
1- It makes Charlotte a legitimate contender this year. Melo, Al Jefferson, and Kemba Walker would make one of the best top-3's in the East. The Bobcats can realistically make a run at the #4 seed (4.5 games out as of today). Who could have ever imagined home court advantage for these guys, even if just for one series.
2- It will make the Knicks terrible next year. They might be a contender for having the worst roster in the NBA, and the Knicks finally own their own pick in 2015. Stars are aligned to get a franchise-type player.
Some other reasons this deal works:
-The Knicks can't afford to lose Melo for nothing in June. Getting out from under the Smith and Felton contracts is a big something.
-Charlotte has to overpay free agents to come there (see Al Jeff). Maybe if a guy like Melo was forced to spend time there, he would see that he loves North Carolina.
-Or maybe Melo will love working with MJ for the next three months and sign long-term. Unlikely, I know.
-More likely would be Melo losing some type of wager to MJ forcing him to re-sign in Charlotte.
-JR Smith and Ray Felton will only make about $10.5m per season for the next two years. They aren't going to cripple the cap situation in Charlotte. MKG would be making about half that anyway.
-Maybe Felton would be rejuvenated playing in North Carolina again. He'll only be asked to play 15 semi-productive minutes a game.
-Sessions, Gordon, Adrien, and Tolliver are just in this deal to make the numbers work. They are all free agents after the season.
-Kidd-Gilchrist has been a flop to date, but he's from New Jersey. Maybe a return to the tri-state area works wonders.
-Amare, Tyson Chandler, and Andrea Bargnani all come off the books after the 2014-5 season. With only MKG, Iman Shumpert, Pablo Prigioni, and Tim Hardaway, Jr.under contract for 2015, they will have the resources to sign Kevin Love and a likely top-5 pick to make NY an even more attractive destination.
I'm an avid Melo defender and fan. I love him as a player, but the rest of this crew is abysmal.
Tell me why this doesn't work:
Melo, JR Smith, and Ray Felton to the Bobcats for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon's contract, Jeff Adrien, and Anthony Tolliver
The two biggest factors that make this a great deal:
1- It makes Charlotte a legitimate contender this year. Melo, Al Jefferson, and Kemba Walker would make one of the best top-3's in the East. The Bobcats can realistically make a run at the #4 seed (4.5 games out as of today). Who could have ever imagined home court advantage for these guys, even if just for one series.
2- It will make the Knicks terrible next year. They might be a contender for having the worst roster in the NBA, and the Knicks finally own their own pick in 2015. Stars are aligned to get a franchise-type player.
Some other reasons this deal works:
-The Knicks can't afford to lose Melo for nothing in June. Getting out from under the Smith and Felton contracts is a big something.
-Charlotte has to overpay free agents to come there (see Al Jeff). Maybe if a guy like Melo was forced to spend time there, he would see that he loves North Carolina.
-Or maybe Melo will love working with MJ for the next three months and sign long-term. Unlikely, I know.
-More likely would be Melo losing some type of wager to MJ forcing him to re-sign in Charlotte.
-JR Smith and Ray Felton will only make about $10.5m per season for the next two years. They aren't going to cripple the cap situation in Charlotte. MKG would be making about half that anyway.
-Maybe Felton would be rejuvenated playing in North Carolina again. He'll only be asked to play 15 semi-productive minutes a game.
-Sessions, Gordon, Adrien, and Tolliver are just in this deal to make the numbers work. They are all free agents after the season.
-Kidd-Gilchrist has been a flop to date, but he's from New Jersey. Maybe a return to the tri-state area works wonders.
-Amare, Tyson Chandler, and Andrea Bargnani all come off the books after the 2014-5 season. With only MKG, Iman Shumpert, Pablo Prigioni, and Tim Hardaway, Jr.under contract for 2015, they will have the resources to sign Kevin Love and a likely top-5 pick to make NY an even more attractive destination.
Saturday, January 11, 2014
Update Post
It’s been a while since I posted / did anything blog related. Here are some quick updates and thoughts:
-I purchased two domains (FireSandy.com and FireSandyAlderson.com) shortly after the Bartolo Colon signing. Not sure what I will do with them but for now, they will forward traffic straight to The Banter.
-Over the last month, I must have heard a dozen people (Bill Simmons of Grantland and Drew Magary of Deadspin being two of them) say something along the lines of: “I hate fantasy football. It’s so frustrating, and I never win. I’m definitely going to quit.”
It's an extremely dumb argument.
Only one out of 12 teams can win fantasy football every year, just like only one of 32 teams can win the Super Bowl but no one - at least no one outside of Cleveland and Buffalo - says they are going to quit watching football because their team never wins.
Quit your whining.
-Jerry Crasnick of ESPN had this to say about Greg Maddux, “For a guy with a CPA's demeanor, he has a sense of humor that a 12-year-old would envy. Maddux is a master of strategically timed nose picking, sidling up to an unsuspecting rookie in the shower and urinating on the kid's leg.”
After pledging a fraternity in college and realizing how dumb I was, I can say with 100% certainty that if Maddux or anyone else every peed on my leg, they would be punched in the face.
-LA Dodgers GM Ned Coletti had this to say about Maddux, “He used to light guys' shoes on fire all the time. If somebody had a hot foot, 10 to 1 it was Greg who lit it."
This again highlights that Coletti has no idea how to use numbers. Saying someone is 10-1 to win something means he is much more likely not to have been the culprit.
Anyone that thinks it’s a good idea to give Coletti a blank checkbook to let him run a franchise is someone that I would love as an employer. Magic, you hiring?
-I will try to have a 2013 football wagering summary posted sometime soon. Overall, it was a positive year so can't complain too much but I'll get the official numbers on here.
-I purchased two domains (FireSandy.com and FireSandyAlderson.com) shortly after the Bartolo Colon signing. Not sure what I will do with them but for now, they will forward traffic straight to The Banter.
-Over the last month, I must have heard a dozen people (Bill Simmons of Grantland and Drew Magary of Deadspin being two of them) say something along the lines of: “I hate fantasy football. It’s so frustrating, and I never win. I’m definitely going to quit.”
It's an extremely dumb argument.
Only one out of 12 teams can win fantasy football every year, just like only one of 32 teams can win the Super Bowl but no one - at least no one outside of Cleveland and Buffalo - says they are going to quit watching football because their team never wins.
Quit your whining.
-Jerry Crasnick of ESPN had this to say about Greg Maddux, “For a guy with a CPA's demeanor, he has a sense of humor that a 12-year-old would envy. Maddux is a master of strategically timed nose picking, sidling up to an unsuspecting rookie in the shower and urinating on the kid's leg.”
After pledging a fraternity in college and realizing how dumb I was, I can say with 100% certainty that if Maddux or anyone else every peed on my leg, they would be punched in the face.
-LA Dodgers GM Ned Coletti had this to say about Maddux, “He used to light guys' shoes on fire all the time. If somebody had a hot foot, 10 to 1 it was Greg who lit it."
This again highlights that Coletti has no idea how to use numbers. Saying someone is 10-1 to win something means he is much more likely not to have been the culprit.
Anyone that thinks it’s a good idea to give Coletti a blank checkbook to let him run a franchise is someone that I would love as an employer. Magic, you hiring?
-I will try to have a 2013 football wagering summary posted sometime soon. Overall, it was a positive year so can't complain too much but I'll get the official numbers on here.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
New York Mets: 2013-14 Offseason Plan
I hate when people complain but don't offer an alternative;
so, allow me to proactively map out a plan for Sandy Alderson to follow the
rest of the offseason because I think he's done a terrible job thus far this
winter.
I’ve made similar attempts in the past - see here and here and here-
although there’s no proof that Sandy read anything more than the first
suggestion in 2011.
***************
Allow me to vent for a minute.
It makes no sense that the Mets wouldn't be in on Doug
Fister, Dexter Fowler, or even Michael Choice. Admittedly, not every team is
going to give Sandy the opportunity to match or even better an offer that they
have on the table. However, it's his job
to find out which players are available in the first place.
It makes even less sense to sign Chris Young to a one-year,
$7m+ deal. There’s very little upside as this deal seems to be an overpay and there’s
no team option attached to it (to my knowledge). If he performs, he’ll leave.
If not, he’ll be overpaid. I would not have made this move, instead leaving
Juan Lagares to patrol centerfield for 8% of the cost.
I understand Sandy is likely under some type of payroll
limitations, and just based on what I’m reading, I used a $95m budget.
[Side note: the Wilpons should consider selling this team if
that’s all they can afford to spend. They are in the largest market in the
country (world?) and get outspent by half the league. What a joke.]
***************
Here are the moves I’d make:
1-TRAID Ike Davis,
Brandon Nimmo, and Gavin Cecchini for Ryan Braun. Ryan Braun is owed over
$100m over the next six seasons ($11m in 2014, $13m in 2015, $20m a season from
2016-19), a luxury Milwaukee cannot afford especially after embarrassing both
himself and the team with his horrendous handling of the PED suspension. The
Brewers are likely not going to compete for a playoff spot in the next few
years. They have arguably one of the three worst farm systems in baseball. They
surrendered their 2013 first rounder in exchange for signing Kyle Lohse. This
deal infuses the system with two former first rounders and rids them of the
financial obligation of paying Braun; plus, Davis addresses a huge hole at first
base. Is this trade crazy? It might be but it at least has to be in the realm
of possibility. This deal alone turns the offseason into a major win.
2-Sign Curtis
Granderson to a 3 year, $45m deal. The Mets had one of the most boring,
frustrating offenses in baseball last season. Add Granderson to lineup that
features David Wright and Braun, and bam! Excitement. And power. I’ll get to
the lineup in a bit, but a 2-3-4 of Wright, Braun, and Granderson would be a
joy to watch.
3-Sign Corey Hart to
a 2 year, $16m deal. With Ike gone, we need a first baseman. I considered a
platoon of Josh Satin and Lucas Duda for a minute but then again remembered I
was talking about Lucas Duda and Josh Satin and changed course. In all
seriousness, I wouldn’t hate that platoon because Satin rakes against lefties,
and Duda rips righties, but I think Hart’s on-base skills would better complete
this lineup. Satin goes back to the minors while Duda becomes a bat off the
bench and spot starter against righties.
4-Sign Andrew Bailey to
a 1 year, $2m deal with team option for a second year. Bailey was
non-tendered by the Red Sox, but he’s had success in the past and he’s a local
kid. It’s a low-risk deal with high upside. If he shows he’s healthy but the Mets
struggle, he can be dealt before the deadline. No brainer.
5-TRAID for Arizona
SS Chris Owings. I fell in love with Owings at this year’s Futures Game. He’s
a complete player, and although his numbers were likely inflated by some
friendly home parks the last few seasons in the minors, he’s a huge upgrade
from Ruben Tejada. The D-backs have a plethora of shortstops. Would a deal of
Michael Fulmer and Cesar Puello get the job done? Again, you need to ask the
question to find out.
6-TRAID Daniel Murphy
for Tim Collins. The Royals have a gaping hole at second base, a desire to
get some value for the about-to-become-more-expansive-than-a-mid-market-team-would-like-middle-reliever,
and their GM is one of the worst in baseball. Everyone else takes advantage of
Dayton Moore. Why can’t the Mets? In a dream scenario, I would add a couple
prospects to this deal and target Kyle Zimmer (my pitching man-crush) but even
Moore can’t be fooled into that kind of deal. Murphy was actually a top-10
second baseman offensively last season and can swing the stick. He’s just too
expensive for the Mets (cheap Wilpons) who would be better served spending
money elsewhere. Collins will cost about a million bucks this year, his first
in arbitration and although diminutive in stature can be effective and give
Terry Collins another lefty in the pen.
***************
By my math, that would leave Sandy with about $8.5m more to
spend as he sees fit (assuming $95m payroll).
Maybe he can give Daniel Hudson a call to see what it would
take to get him under contract with an incentive-laden deal in the hopes he can
contribute on 2015 and beyond.
Maybe he can frontload Granderson’s deal to a) incentivize
him to sign, and b) offer some relief in the last year of the deal to offset
Braun’s salary bump.
Maybe he can trade for Chase Headley in the offseason and
use the money to sign him long-term. I love the idea of trading for Headley
right now as his value is about as low as it could be, but with Chris Young playing
left field and Wright at third, there’s not much room for him. An alternative
would be not signing Hart and letting Headley play first.
Maybe he can make a deal for Asdrubal Cabrera to play second
base, and sign him long-term.
For those that have asked if I think signing Robinson Cano
to a monster deal would be worth it: I don’t think it is….assuming the payroll
limitations, that is. If the Wilpons bump the budget up by $25m, of course, I would
be in favor of signing Cano. And I will continue to beat this horse, but a
payroll of $120m would have been the 10th highest in baseball last
year so it’s not a ridiculous thought that the budget could be increased to that number.
***************
These moves would leave the Mets with this potential lineup:
1 Owings 6
2 Wright 5
3 Braun 9
4 Granderson 7
5 Hart 3
6 Travis d'Arnaud 2
7 C. Young 8
8 E. Young / Wilmer Flores 4
That is a top 10 offense, and the idea of adding Cano in
place of the EY / Flores combo has me downright giddy.
Mix in a token backup catcher like Anthony Recker, Duda, and
Lagares and you have your bench.
***************
Now, the staff.
Unbelievably, it’s taken me until here to even mention Matt
Harvey’s name. His injury was the biggest groin kick we’ve received as Mets
fans since Carlos Beltran was frozen by Adam Wainwright to end the 2006 NLCS.
It was devastating. However, I have every reason to believe the Mets can still
compete in 2014 for a playoff spot and seriously contend for the World Series
in 2015 when Harvey’s back.
The rotation this year could be:
1 Jon Niese
2 Zack Wheeler
3 Dillon Gee
4 Noah Syndergaard
5 Rafael Montero
Yes, I am a proponent of calling up Syndergaard and Montero
and letting them learn under pressure.
When Harvey’s back in 2015, he jumps to the top of the
rotation and everyone gets bumped a peg.
The bullpen: Bobby Parnell, Bailey, Collins, Jennry Mejia, Vic
Black, Josh Edgin, Gonzalez Germen, and Jeurys Familia.
***************
Tell me where you would improve my plan or why I’m being
crazy.
Also, these are the salary assumptions I am making:
Thursday, November 21, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 13
My losses just keep getting more brutal by the week. I lost my PoW on the Auburn 4th-and-80 Hail Mary. Yeesh! Thakfully, it was still a positive week.
Northern Illinois -2: 3.3 units to win 3.0 units
UCLA +3: 2.4 units to win 2.0 units
Late Addition:
Coastal Carolina +34.5: 3.3 units to win 3.0 units
Late Addition:
Coastal Carolina +34.5: 3.3 units to win 3.0 units
There's a good chance I add a few more games before Saturday is done so check back.
Upset of the Week- Michigan +6: 2.2 units to win 2.0 units
Upset of the Week- Michigan +6: 2.2 units to win 2.0 units
Pick of the Week- Old Dominion +17.5: 4.4 units to win 4.0 units
Overall Record: 30-25-1 (+27.0 units)
Upset: 3-8
PoW: 6-4-1
PoY: 1-0
NFL Picks: Week 12
Why do I ever trust the Jets? What a mistake.
Bears Pk: 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Colts +1: 5.0 units to win 5.5 units
Check back Sunday for more action
Bears Pk: 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Colts +1: 5.0 units to win 5.5 units
Check back Sunday for more action
Overall Record: 19-24 (-21.7 units; futures not included)
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5
units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1
units to win 2.5 units - WIN
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9
units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units
to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units
to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5
units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs
over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units - WIN
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY:
5.0 units to win 87.5 units
Friday, November 15, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 12
I complained last week about a boring Week 10. Well, I'll take boring over terrible any week of the year. Brutal picking by me. I need to step up the game here coming down the stretch.
Overall Record: 28-22-1 (+26.7 units)
Georgia ML / Nebraska ML / Stanford ML: 1.0 unit to win 10.0 units
Houston Pk: 1.0 unit to win 5.6 units
Oklahoma State -3: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week- Duke +3.5: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units
Houston Pk: 1.0 unit to win 5.6 units
Oklahoma State -3: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week- Duke +3.5: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Georgia +3: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units
Overall Record: 28-22-1 (+26.7 units)
Upset: 2-8
PoW: 6-3-1
PoY: 1-0
NFL Picks: Week 11
HOLY SMOKESHOW, did I get crushed last week! Brutal week through and through. The only good thing to come out of the week was the Lions claiming sole possession of first place in the NFC North. Besides that, let's just forget Week 10 ever happened.
Jets Pk: 4.0 units to win 4.2 units
Check back Sunday for more action
Jets Pk: 4.0 units to win 4.2 units
Check back Sunday for more action
Overall Record: 19-26 (-17.7 units)
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5
units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1
units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9
units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units
to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units
to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5
units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs
over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY:
5.0 units to win 87.5 units
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