Friday, March 14, 2014

Trade of the Week: Cubs/Mets Swap Prospects

Neither the Mets and Cubs have serious aspirations of competing for the playoffs this season. However, the prospects are bright in 2015 and beyond for both clubs. These teams line up perfectly to swap their respective best prospects for each other.

The Trade of the Week: P Noah Syndergaard for SS Javier Baez

The Cubs have a glut of young hitters including Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Arismendy Alcantara, Jorge Soler, and Dan Vogelbach who are all 21 or under. Chicago's starting shortstop - who happens to be under contract through at least 2019 - is only 23. Offense will not be a problem.

Their pitching prospects, however, leave a lot to be desired. Its a system littered with number 3 through 5 starters but no ace. They tried signing Masahiro Tanaka this offseason to be their number 1, but he opted to sign with the Yankees. Could Jeff Samardzija be the top of the rotation starter they need? Possibly, but his name has been in countless rumors and the chances he's dealt increase every day he doesn't sign long term. Personally, I'm not sure he can be the ace of the staff.

Enter Syndergaard.

He has protypical size (6'6", 240 lbs.) and stuff (98mph FB, hammer curve) to sit atop a staff for the next 10 years. After being acquired as part of the R.A. Dickey deal, he struck out 10 batter per 9 IP across two levels in the minors and sky-rocketed to the top of all the Mets prospect lists. He's a stud.

The Mets have the opposite dilemma: all pitching, no bats. A healthy Matt Harvey will - hopefully - return in 2015 to lead the Mets rotation with Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, and Rafael Montero filling in as the 2, 3, and 4 starters. But where will the offense come from? Aside from David Wright and Curtis Granderson, the 2014 squad will be devoid of any consistent power. This team was painful to watch last year, and it started with the circus at shortstop. Ruben Tejada? Omar Quintanilla? Please make it stop.

Enter Baez.

I'm giddy thinking about the possibility of a guy that has 30-homer upside (he hit 37 last year in the minors) manning the left side of the infield in Flushing for the next decade. I would be more than happy with some below average defense at the position if it meant I would actually be excited to see someone swing the stick at Citi Field on a regular basis. Someone with bat speed? In the Mets lineup? Sign me up.

It's a great match that makes both teams better.


Thursday, March 13, 2014

Mock Draft 1.0: Featuring Rick and Coop (Part I)

It's March. Free agency is in full swing three days after it officially began. The Combine is done. It is time for the first mock draft of the offseason.

Rick, Coop, and I will be alternating picks in a somewhat organized chaos kind of way.

Since we all have jobs, we can only make picks early in the morning or late at night so this will be split into four parts. Maybe we will try to speed it up a little on the weekend, but I wouldn't count on it.

Round 1

1. Texans (TSB): Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina - Clowney has the most talent of anyone in this draft, and I’m not a huge believer in any of the quarterbacks in this class (although I did consider Johnny Football here since he already dominates the state of Texas). Only two teams in football finished the 2013 season with fewer sacks than Houston which is especially amazing considering they had JJ Watt playing for them. The Texans are also about to lose DE Antonio Smith, who finished third on the team in sacks last season. I think Watt will keep Clowney plenty motivated (something that scouts are worried about right now), and they will be among the league leaders in sacks next season. He makes the entire defense better including the secondary which finished with a league-worst seven interceptions last year.

2. Rams via Redskins (Coop): Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn - 130. That is how many pancake blocks Greg Robinson had during the 2013 run to the BCS National Championship. That is a big, strong, nasty man blocking downfield.  Robinson is the most talented lineman in this class, and his dominance in the run game will be a much needed boost to the 30th ranked offense in the NFL. The Rams O-line is a mess right now. Jake Long is recovering from a knee reconstruction in late January, and Roger Saffold left to explore his free agency options. With the talents they have emerging at the skill positions (Stacy/Austin), bolstering the line is the next step to competing in a division the featured three of the top-6 defensive teams in the league.

[Update: The Rame re-signed Roger Saffold. Their O-Line is still a mess.]

3. Jaguars (Rick): Blake Bortles, QB, University of Central Florida - the re-signing of Chad Henne allows a bridge to a franchise QB. Bortles is widely assumed not yet ready to shoulder the load of an NFL franchise, but here he won't have to right away. The Jaguars won't be contenders for a while and this will allow them to develop a young QB which they haven't been able to do (see Blaine Gabbert). None of the QB's in this class are overwhelming, but Bortles has that overrated prototypical size and pocket presence GM's love.

4. Browns (Coop): Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M - The Browns haven’t spent a draft pick this high on a QB in the 21st Century, and it is time for them to pull the trigger.  Manziel cannot draw up a better situation to be walking into as a rookie. Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron immediately give him playmakers to work with, and the offensive line has been rock solid for the past 2 years. All he has to do is keep being Johnny Football, and the Browns should be on the right track.




The Franchise
5. Raiders (TSB): Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville - Oakland might have more roster turnover than any team in football. Their cap situation was a mess that’s finally been cleared up. Now it’s time for them to clean up another messy situation: their quarterback position. This has been the black hole of the Black Hole since Rich Gannon left. Just listen to some of these names that have lined up under center since 2004: Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Jamarcus Russell, Dante Culpepper, Andrew Walter, Kerry Collins. And it’s not like these guys were backups. Each of them led the Raiders in passing at least once in the last decade. Yikes. The Raiders need some stability at the position. Even though I think Sammy Watkins will be the better player, I think the Raiders need TeddyB more. The Raiders just need him to be solid, not spectacular and I think he's capable of that. I also think Rod Streater and Denarius Moore can do the job adequately enough that they can wait to take a wideout later in the draft. Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin, not so much. A couple tangential points here. Pryor would make a great wide receiver if he can catch (and he’s a great athlete so I imagine he can catch). I owe McGloin an overdue thank you. Betting against you while you were in college made me a lot of money. I appreciate it.

6. Falcons (Rick): Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson - Atlanta splashed in free agency by building up in the trenches and getting more physical. They probably aren't done there. I can see them using another pick along the offensive line, but if Watkins falls in their lap here they won't pass him up. He's the premier weapon in the draft and with Roddy White slowing down he'll slide right in and immediately create the best WR tandem in the NFL with Julio Jones.

7. Bucs (TSB): Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M - I have to say I'm a little shocked at that Watkins pick. I was already prepping my Sammy-to-the-Bucs write-up where he would have been a perfect fit with Vincent Jackson. But the draft will surprise you sometimes. The more I thought about it though, the more I thought adding Evans would be an even better fit for the Bucs. 6'5", 230 lbs, good speed, great hands, some off the field issues. He is V-Jax 2.0. Is it crazy to have two of the identical players on a team? I can't think of a great reason why that would be a bad thing if that player is incredibly gifted and creates all types of mismatches. V-Jax 1.0 is 31 years old. He's not playing in the Not For Long forever. This will be a passing of the torch eventually, but for now, gimme both of them. Related note: how on Earth does Lovie Smith think it's a good idea to tell the world that the QB job is Josh McCown's to lose? I'm not saying Mike Glennon is a the long-term solution, but Lovie came to town last week, and he's already kicking Glennon to the curb after he had a decent rookie campaign. Makes no sense.

8. Vikings (Coop):  Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma St. - After the top 3 QBs come off the board, there is a steep drop off and no reason for Minnesota to reach for a guy like Derek Carr at 8. Hemmed and hawed about this pick quite a bit because of what Khalil Mack can bring to the table, but the reality is the Vikes are desperate for help at the corner position. They had the 2nd worst pass defense in the league, which is no surprise when facing Smoking Jay Cutler (Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery), Aaron Rodgers (Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb), and Matt Stafford (Megatron/Anyone) twice a year. Gilbert is the #1 corner available in the draft providing a good combination of size, speed, and ball skills. The good news for the Vikings is that Xavier Rhodes comes back from an ACL injury, and by drafting Gilbert they will have a young and capable top set of corners to help them compete in the NFC North.

9. Bills (Rick):
10. Lions (TSB):
11. Titans (Coop):
12. Giants (Rick):
13. Rams (Coop):
14. Bears (TSB):
15. Steelers (Rick):
16. Cowboys (Rick):
17. Ravens (Coop):
18. Jets (TSB):

Saturday, March 8, 2014

NCAA Conference Tournament Updates

(Updated: 3/12 at 11:30pm)


I'm stuck in a two-year drought of not winning any March Madness pools, and put simply, that sucks.

I have not been following college basketball since November, but I'm hoping a serious cram session can get me - and you the beneficiary of said cramming - up to speed by the time the tournament starts. Especially now that Warren Buffett has offered a BILLION dollars for a perfect bracket.

My goal is to provide conference tournament updates daily for the next week and a half and analyze which auto-qualifiers have the best chance of pulling off an upset or two in the Big Dance.

The exact format is TBD, but by the time Selection Sunday rolls around, I'm hoping this post can be my (and your) one-stop upset shopping hot spot. Just don't get into the same pools as me, please. If you do join Warren's pool and strike it rich, remember to tip your primary information source, TSB.

College Basketball Talk put together this easy-to-use schedule for all the conference tournaments.

 
The things I'll be looking for when trying to find a team capable of pulling the upset(s):

1. A guy that can win a game by himself. This player doesn't need to be a consistent superstar, just a guy that has proven he can get hot in stretches.
2. Size. It's possible, just not very probable, that a team lacking any rotation player over 6'8" can win against a much higher seed who typically play in the power conferences and attract that highest-skilled bug men.
3. A team that scores. Yes, I would like a superstar, but at the mid-major to low-major level, that's likely not going to happen. But, a team featuring a few double-digit scorers can see all those guys getting hot at the same time to shock someone.

On to the Dancers...

(In order of ticket punching)

Clinched on Friday, March 7th-

Ivy: Harvard

Roster / Stats

You'll notice the Ivy League isn't on the schedule above, and that's because they think they are better than everyone else so they choose not to have a postseason tournament. [Minor truth to the rumor that the Ivy League has adopted a new conference logo for next year of: The Fun Stops Here.]

Anyway, Harvard secured the auto-berth from the Ivy for the third straight season by virtue of winning the regular season, and they have a very good chance of pulling off a first round upset like they did last year as a 14-seed against 3-seed New Mexico.

The Crimson sit at 26-4. They have six guys that all average between 9 and 14 points per game and play the majority of the team's minutes, which I love. Wesley Saunders, their leading scorer, has gone for 20 or more in five games this season, and their second-leading scorer has hit the 20-point mark three times on the year.

All low seeds are going to have warts, and the biggest one for this team is its size. None of their regulars is taller than 6'7" so they could be in trouble if they match up with a bigger team (Captain Obvious Alert). Still, there's plenty of reason for hope here.


Clinched on Saturday, March 8th- 

The Good: The Iowa State-Oklahoma State game was incredibly entertaining, and I loved this:



The Bad: My biggest sleeper - Green Bay - was eliminated today, likely saving me a few incorrect picks in my real bracket.

Just one team punched a ticket today: EKU.

Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky

Roster / Stats

EKU knocked off top-seeded Belmont in the OVC Final. The Colonels start four guards which is incredibly troubling to me, and their fifth starter is only 6'8". It stands to reason that they rank 350th in the nation in rebounding. That being said, these guards can play a little bit. Glenn Cosey averages 19 points per game, and four other players average over 9.

I'm not thrilled with this team making the Dance, but I guess it's possible they could knock off a top seed if that opponent had some weaker guards. I like the superstar factor. One more reason for hesitation: the Colonels lost by 25 earlier in the year at Wisconsin.


Clinched on Sunday, March 9th-

This was actually a crushing day for three teams I had high hopes for: Towson, Vermont, and Davidson. Aside from Harvard, my sleepers are dropping like flies. Officially, three teams clinched today although Wichita State clinched a looong time ago, unofficially.

Missouri Valley: Wichita State

This post is meant to find sleepers, not to rehash how great the only defeated team in America is. Sure they haven't played the toughest schedule, but they have have won every game they've played. Give them a lot of credit. They deserve it.

Atlantic Sun: Mercer

Roster / Stats

The Bears upset Dunk City, Florida Gulf Coast, for the auto-berth. I love that they have five senior starters, including Daniel Coursey who registers at 6'10'. They score too (almost 80 per) and have beaten some big conference opponents including Ole Miss and Seton Hall. Unfortunately, they only have one player that averages in double-figures, and Coursey secures less than seven boards a game. How is that possible in the Atlantic Sun?

I haven't made up my mind on these guys just yet, but the seniors will make me give them an extra long look especially if they are matched against a perennial tournament underachiever like Wisconsin or Kansas.

Big South: Coastal Carolina

Roster / Stats

I try to look for the good in all of these auto-qualifiers, and the Chanticleers have a lot of good for a team that will likely be a 16-seed next week.

They are 10th in the country in rebounding and have three guards that score over 14 points per game. They even have a little bit of size with the 6'10" El Hadji Ndieguene manning the middle. The bad news is that after watching the Big South final, I just don't think they can hang with any of the big boys. Nice run, but I think it's one and done for these guys.


Clinched on Monday, March 10th-

MAAC: Manhattan

Roster / Stats

The Jaspers have the superstar I look for in my sleepers (George Beamon - who also has a superstar name), but I have to admit that I wasn't impressed watching these guys in the MAAC Final. Their starting PG Michael Alvarado was limited by a facial injury and didn't look comfortable wearing a mask.

Maybe they can ride Beamon, but I'm just not seeing it.

CAA: Delaware

Roster / Stats

The Blue Hens ride their horses. In the CAA title game, three of their starters played all 40 minutes while the other two logged 34 minutes apiece. They start four guards which I don't like, but three of those guards average over 18 points per game. These guys can put the ball in the hoop, and they take care of the rock too.

These guys are dangerous. 

Full disclosure: My DVR didn't cooperate so this is the only team I haven't actually seen play this year of all auto-qualifiers.

Southern: Wofford

Roster / Stats

G Karl Cochran can play a little, but this team will be one and done. The talent level just isn't there.

I'll save you the Google search: Wofford is in South Carolina.


Clinched on Tuesday, March 11th-

West Coast: Gonzaga

Roster / Stats

It's March which means we will inevitably be talking about the Bulldogs. I'll have more on these guys soon, but they can win a few games if things break right.

Summit: North Dakota St.

Roster / Stats

I'll have more details in the next day or two, but the Bison are live 'dogs with a shot at the Sweet 16. 

Northeast: Mt. St. Mary's

Roster / Stats


Don't waste your time here.

Horizon: Milwaukee

Roster / Stats


Or here.




Clinched on Wednesday, March 12th-

Patriot: American

Roster / Stats
The Eagles have three double-digit scorers and play some solid D, but the talent level just doesn't seem to be there. I won't discount them entirely because they also have a 6'10" player, Tony Wroblicky, that hits the glass a bit.