Let's start with some truisms.
The Jets are set to enter the 2022 Draft process with four of the top 38 picks: 4th overall, 10th, 35th, and 38th.
The Jets need more than one player to right this ship.
The Jets still believe in Zach Wilson.
Every year we see teams pay a QB surcharge in the draft. That is, they are willing to pay above market price for the right to select the QB they want even if the draft pick value chart would say otherwise.
This is a year without consensus at the top of the draft. Is the 4th ranked prospect all that different from the 20th ranked prospect?
The Jets should use all of this to their advantage and maximize the best asset we currently have: the 4th pick. How should they go about this?
I think the following series of trades would best maximize value in this upcoming draft:
Trade 1: NYJ sends Carolina the 4th (QB Kenny Pickett) and 117th overall picks in the 2022 Draft in exchange for the 6th pick in the 2022 Draft and Carolina's 2nd round pick in 2023.
Why do the Jets do this: They pick up a second rounder that figures to be in the top half of the round. They let Carolina jump ahead of them to take a player the Jets aren't even considering.
Why do the Panthers do this: Matt Rhule is trying to save his job. He has identified Pickett as his guy and drafting a QB buys him time. It also gets the Panthers a fourth round pick this year. After the 6th overall pick, they are not scheduled to pick again until 137th. This gets them capital now. There will be a new regime next year if this fails.
Value created according to value chart if we assume 2023 pick will be 55th overall: +78 points (equivalent to the 108th overall pick).
The pick will likely be higher than 55th but we need to apply a discount because the pick is a year away so 55th seems fair for estimation purposes. Nitpick if you'd like.
Trade 2: NYJ sends Seattle the 6th (QB Malik Willis) and 146th overall picks in exchange for the 9th and 40th overall picks.
Why do the Jets do this: They add another second rounder giving them five of the top 40 picks in the draft. Again, they let a team jump in front of them for a player the Jets have no interest in anyway.Why do the Seahawks do this: Similar to the Panthers, they have identified the QB they want and pay the price to lock him in. They acquired these two picks as part of the Russell Wilson deal (in addition to another first and second rounder next year. To spin Wilson into a young QB with enormous upside plus still have those other picks next year (and Noah Fant) looks like a win.
Value created according to value chart: +219 points (equivalent to the 74th overall pick)
Trade 3: NYJ trade the 9th and 111th overall picks to Minnesota in exchange for the 12th and 46th overall picks.
Why do the Jets do this: They add another second rounder giving them six of the top 46 picks in the draft. This would be the first trade down where the Jets would lose a player from their board they seemingly want, but picking up that second rounder is worth it. Also, they could use the 10th pick on the cornerback Minnesota doesn't take assuming both are still on the board at 9.Why do the Vikings do this: They have identified a cornerback (Sauce Garner or Derek Stingley) that they think is the best in the class.
Value created according to value chart: +218 (equivalent to the 75th overall pick)
Trade 4: NYJ trade the 12th (QB Desmond Ridder) and 163rd overall picks to Pittsburgh in exchange for the 20th and 52nd overall picks in the 2022 Draft and Pittsburgh's 2nd round pick in 2023.
Why do the Jets do this: More draft capital. They now own seven of the top 52 picks and have two extra seconds next year.Why do the Steelers do this: They have identified Desmond Ridder as their guy.
Value created according to value chart if we assume 2023 pick will be 60th overall: +306 (equivalent to the 59th overall pick)
Again, the pick will likely be higher than 60th but we need to apply a discount because the pick is a year away so 60th seems fair for estimation purposes. Continue to nitpick.
Trade 5: NYJ trade the 20th (QB Matt Corral) overall pick to Detroit in exchange for the 32nd and 34th overall picks.
Why do the Jets do this: Even more draft capital. They now own eight of the top 52 picks and have two extra seconds next year.Why do the Lions do this: Matt Corral is their guy.
Value created according to value chart: +300 (equivalent to the 60th overall pick)
Trade 6: NYJ trade the 32nd (QB Sam Howell) overall pick to Atlanta in exchange for the 43rd and 58th overall picks.
Why do the Jets do this: Moar draffft CaPiTAalll!Why do the Falcons do this: Sam Howell is their guy and they get him for five years as a first round pick.
Value created according to value chart: +200 (equivalent to the 78th overall pick)
Here's the final scorecard:
Out: 4, 111, 117, 146, 163
In: 34, 40, 43, 46, 52, 58, Carolina's 2023 second rounder, Pittsburgh's 2023 second rounder
Value created according to value chart: +1,321 (equivalent to the 10th overall pick)
In addition to the picks they already own, the Jets pick at 10, 34, 35, 38, 40, 43, 46, 52, 58, and 69. 10 of the top 69 picks!?!? Yes, please.
Let's take this dream to completion. Here's what I would do with the picks:
10- DB Kyle Hamilton or Sauce Gardner. In addition to Pickett, Willis, and Stingley, I think Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Evan Neal, and Ikem Ekwonu will certainly be gone by the 10th pick. That means that one of Hamilton or Sauce will be available. If I'm the Jets I'm hoping it's Sauce but I would "settle" for the top safety in the class. There's great depth at wide receiver in this class so we wait on that until the top of Round 2.
34- C Tyler Linderbaum
35- DE George Karlaftis
38- WR George Pickens
40- DE Arnold Ebiketie
43- S Lewis Cine or Daxton Hill if Sauce is the pick at 10 or CB Roger McCreary if it's Hamilton at 10.
46- DE David Obajo. Having all of these extra second rounders allows the Jets to take a shot on Obajo who won't contribute at all until 2023.
52- WR Jalen Tolbert
58- LB Leo Chenal
69- CB Tariq Woolen
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