Thursday, November 29, 2012

Picks: Week of 11/28-12/2

Huge Thanksgiving highlighted by a three-team parlay led to a really nice week. Took more risk than usual on Sunday when I was playing with house money and came close to hitting two parlays.

I'll take my hit on the Chiefs and Browns winning their respective divisions (they clearly won't).  Hoping the Broncos over 8.5 loss will be offset with a Steelers under 9.5 win.

Lots of action this weekend when I am hoping to be home watching a ton of the action. Whether that actually happens is still to be seen.

College Football

Stanford -9 (vs UCLA): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Tulsa Pk (vs UCF): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Georgia +7.5 (vs Alabama): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Georgia Pk (vs Alabama): 2.5 units to win 7.0 units L - 2.5 units
Oklahoma State-Baylor Under 86.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Florida State-Georgia Tech Under 63.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units

NFL

Colts +4.5 (at Lions): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Bears -3 (vs Seahawks): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
Jaguars +6 (at Bills): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Texans -6.5 (at Titans): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Rams +7.5 (vs 49ers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Chargers +1.5 (vs Bengals): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units

EPL

West Ham +0.5 (vs Chelsea): 2.7 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units

Season Record (beginning 9/1/12)

CFB: 33-25 (+15.2 units)
NFL: 30-25 (+57.8 units)
EPL: 6-7 (-4.6 units)

Pending:

Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Picks: Week of 11/21-11/26

The Good: my highest conviction bet of the season (Packers) covered in miracle fashion, the three teams I have to win the NFC all won, overall it was a winning weekend

The Bad: Kansas State didn't show up, Fulham got a red card in the middle of the first half, the Colts aren't quite as good as I thought, Louisiana Tech comes back from 24 down to tie the game only to lose and not cover in OT

The Very Bad: Notre Dame controlling their own destiny


College Football

TCU +8 (at Texas): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Georgia Tech +13 (at Georgia): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Florida +7 (at Florida State): 2.5 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
USC Pk (vs Notre Dame): 3.5 units to win 5.8 units L - 3.5 units
Teaser- Notre Dame Pk / Ohio State +2: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Notre Dame Pk / Patriots -1: 6.3 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units

NFL

Cowboys-Redskins Over 48: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Patriots -6 (at Jets): 3.3 units to win 3.0 units W - 3.0 units
Packers +3 (at Giants): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
Parlay- Pittsburgh -1.5 / Indianapolis -2.5 / Jacksonville +3.5: 2.5 units to win 15.7 units L - 2.5 units
Parlay- Pitt-Cleve 1H o17 / Atlanta-Tampa Bay 1H o 26.5: 2.5 units to win 6.4 units L - 2.5 units
Parlay- Cowboys-Redskins Over 48 / TCU Pk / Patriots Pk: 2.5 units to win 19.1 units W - 19.1 units

EPL

Man City Pk (at Chelsea): 2.5 units to win 4.5 units L - 2.5 units


Season Record (beginning 9/1/12)

CFB: 29-23 (+9.0 units)
NFL: 27-20 (+46.1 units)
EPL: 6-6 (-2.1 units)

Pending:

Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Dayton Moore-on Needs To Be Fired

How does Dayton Moore still have a job? It's been over seven hours since this hit the wire:


Jeremy Guthrie.

$25 million American dollars.

What???

That would be a terrible deal if the length of the contact was for the rest of Guthrie's career. Scratch that. That would be a terrible deal if the length of the contact was for the rest of Guthrie's life.

What exactly has Guthrie done to warrant this deal?

Was it his 55-77 career record? (Statheads can say what they want about wins and losses but being 22 games under .500 is significant)

Is it because he gives up more than a hit per innings?

Because he strikes out 5.4 batters per 9?

More likely, Dayton Moore cracked open baseball-reference.com and saw that at this age the pitcher Jeremy Guthrie most resembles is Tomo Ohka and figured if he didn't throw that kind of money at the Tomo Ohka 2.0 someone else would. 

Most likely of all though, Moore is paying Guthrie this obscene amount of money because of his 5-3 record in 14 starts after he was acquired from the Rockies for nothing on July 20th. Technically, it was an injured Jonathan Sanchez but this was a salary dump.

What a joke.

Let's look at Moore's resume. He took over in the middle of 2006 so I won't count those numbers when KC finished 62-100 that year. In the six complete years he has been the GM, the Royals have:

-never won more than 75 games
-never finished higher than 3rd in the division
-lost at least 90 games five times
-had three different coaches
-signed Gil Meche to one of the 10 worst contracts in Major League Baseball history
-started Jeff Francoeur in over 300 games

If the Glass family had any idea what was happening, they would fire Moore.

Two weeks ago, I tweeted this:

Dayton Moore thinks he got a bargain.

**********************

In unrelated news and just because I want to use some arbitrary endpoints, Bryan LaHair was designated for assignment today. Let's rewind five months to June 18th. Check out the stats of the two players I am talking about and tell me which one you would have guessed would be signing a $25m contract today:

LaHair: 187 AB, 13 HR, .299 BA, .380 OBP, .572 Slg
   One month later, LaHAir was named to the NL All-Star team
Guthrie: 3-6, 59 innings, 30 strikeouts, 7.02 ERA, .339 BAA, 1.033 OPS Against
   One month later, Guthrie was traded to the Royals for a bag of water-logged baseballs

LaHair's agent should call Dayton Moore immediately to ask for a multi-year deal.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Perfect Combo

Newly minted Eagles starting QB Nick Foles is a perfect combo of Tom Petty and Napoleon Dynamite:

 

Friday, November 16, 2012

Picks: Week of 11/14-11/19

Late field goals in two games went against me and destroyed what could have been a nice week.

Nebraska kicked a meaningless field goal with under 30 seconds left to cover against Penn State. Then I had a brutal NFL week thanks almost entirely to David Akers missed overtime field goal.

If these kicks go the other way, I make money, but that's not what happened.

Oh, and basketball kicked me in the teeth too.

Time to lick the wounds and get back on the horse.

College Football

NC State +16.5 (at Clemson): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Louisiana Tech +3 (vs Utah State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.5 units
Parlay- Oregon-Stanford Over 65 / California 14.5 / Packers -3: 2.5 units to win 14.5 units L - 2.5 units
Teaser- Kansas State -2.5 / Packers +7 /  Falcons Pk: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.0 units

NFL

Packers -3 (at Lions) 17.5 units to win 15.0 units W - 15.0 units
Eagles +3.5 (at Redskins): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Colts +9 (at Patriots): 3.3 units to win 3.0 units L - 3.3 units
Steelers +3.5 (vs Ravens): 3.3 units to win 3.0 units W - 3.0 units

Parlay- Packers -3 / Colts Win: 2.5 units to win 18.1 units L - 2.5 units

EPL

West Brom +0.5 (vs Chelsea): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Fulham Pk (vs Sunderland): 3.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.6 units


Season Record (beginning 9/1/12)

CFB: 28-20 (+14.5 units)
NFL: 25-17 (+36.7 units)
EPL: 5-5 (-1.0 units)

Pending:
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

The Kick That Shaped Two Franchises

On the unseasonably warm penultimate day of 2007 in New York, two of the worst NFL teams would do battle - if you can call it that - as the 3-12 Jets took on the 4-11 Chiefs. 

The playoffs were obviously a distant thought for either franchise. One would only need to look at the starting quarterbacks that day to see neither team was trying to win this game: Kellen Clemens against Brodie Croyle, NEXT on CBS!

The only thing at stake was draft position.

With a win, the Chiefs would pick 6th. With a loss or tie, they would pick fifth.

With a win, the Jets would pick 6th. With a loss or tie, they would pick third.

It doesn't happen often, but the object of the game was to lose! There was absolutely nothing to be gained by winning.

Through four quarters, the teams remained tied at 10. To the dismay of everyone in attendance, that meant overtime.

The Jets would take the opening kickoff of the extra frame down the field to the Chiefs' 15. Out trotted kicker Mike Nugent to attempt a 33-yard field.

With all of Jets Nation rooting for a miss, Nugent drills a kick through the uprights... but wait.

Flag on the field! There is hope!

Wade Smith had committed a holding infraction, giving Nugent another opportunity to MISS. THIS. KICK.

Forty-five seconds later, Nugent lines up to attempt a 43-yarder and... of course he makes this one too, giving the Jets the 6th pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.

Nugent wears his enemy number on his chest
With the third pick of that draft - yes, the exact pick the Jets would have owned if this kick was missed - the Atlanta Falcons selected QB Matt Ryan who turned around the franchise after the Michael Vick debacle. He has established himself as a legitimate starting quarterback, MVP candidate, and face of the city.

Three picks later, the Jets selected five time Pro Bowler Vernon Gholston and haven't looked back since epic bust Vernon Gholston. They then traded for Brett Favre to patch a gaping hole at the quarterback position before selecting Mark Sanchez with their first round pick in 2009.

Long story short, Ryan - not Mark Sanchez - would be leading the Jets right now, and as Jets fans we would have some semblance of hope.

Not to be thanks to the kick that shaped two franchises.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

The 2012-3 Mets Offseason Plan



The Mets are not going to compete for a division title - forget the World Series - in 2013 so every move should be made with an eye towards 2014 and beyond.  It is with that belief in mind that I shape my offseason plan for the New York Mets. I will call it “The Bridge Plan” as it will, you guessed it, bridge the current joke-of-a-roster to what will hopefully become a consistent contender.



1-Trade David Wright to the Dodgers for P Zach Lee. As a Mets fan, I love the guy despite his shortcomings in clutch situations (full disclosure: I believe in clutch but that’s an issue for another day).  Unfortunately, DWright cannot carry a team by himself, and it seems foolish to pay a premium contract to a player on a non-contending team. 

This deal seems like a no-brainer for the Mets. Lee would help form a formidable rotation with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jon Niese, all of whom would be under team control until at least 2016 at reasonable salaries. Sure, the Mets lose a ton of offensive production this year, but they are not going to be good anyway. In my mind, it is better to be bad than it is to be mediocre. At least bad teams get high draft picks. 

The Dodgers are in win-now mode. They have blank checks to throw at star players and would be able to lock Wright up long-term. Throw him into a lineup that already features Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez (who would have to stay at short), and you are looking at the makings of a dominant lineup.

2-Trade RA Dickey for OF Gary Brown and C Andrew Susac. Another player that I love, but RA’s trade value will never be higher. He’s 38 years old, but coming off a Cy Young season. Can he stay good for long enough to be a part of the next contender in New York? I’ll wager no.

The good news is that RA is only due $5m this season which makes him an attractive option for a team like the Giants that probably doesn’t want to break the bank on more pitching but has question marks on the mound, namely around Tim Lincecum. A Matt Cain-Madison Bumgarner-Dickey top of the rotation keeps the Giants as serious World Series contenders even if Lincecum can’t return to his pre-2012 form. The move could allow the Giants to focus resources on other areas of the roster (re-signing Angel Pagan) and/or signing a premier hitter (Josh Hamilton).

This is a pretty large haul for the Giants to part with. The Giants have the best catcher in baseball so dealing Susac won’t be a huge issue, and anyone with a pulse represents an upgrade over Josh Thole for the Mets. Brown, however, would be tough for the Giants to deal as he rates well defensively on all the scouting reports I have read, and he flies (88 stolen bases over the last two minor league seasons). He would be a perfect centerfielder in cavernous Citi Field. 

3-Trade Johan Santana and $15.5m to the Royals for OF Brett Eibner. No-han is due $25.5m in 2013, and the Mets have a team option to pick up his $25m salary for 2014. If they don’t - which they clearly won’t - they owe him a $5.5m buyout. In other words, Santana is playing on a one-year, $31m deal. Not bad work if you can get it. In order for the Mets to get anything in return for him, they will have to eat a bunch of this money, with my guess being about half the money due to him.

Eibner is bordering on non-prospect status due to injuries and underperformance with the stick, but coming out of college, he was a two-way prospect so maybe the Mets could get something out of him on the hill.

The Royals have desperately been looking for an ace. If they were willing to take a chance on Ervin Santana, maybe they would be willing to do the same on Johan at a reasonable one-year, $15.5m. Sandy Alderson could convince Dayton Moore the brothers Santana would be a dynamic 1-2 punch in KC.



4- Sign Ryan Madson (two-years, $12m deals with incentives) and Joakim Soria (two-years, $8m deal with incentives).

Both are former closers with name recognition, two huge plusses come trade deadline time. The hope here is that they can be turned into B+ / B prospects in July. In the meantime, they can prove they are healthy while solidifying a bullpen that was an absolute travesty last year.

5-Non-tender Mike Pelfrey and Andres Torres. Addition by subtraction.

6-Sign Ryan Ludwick ($6m), Scott Hairston ($2m), and Cesar Izturis ($1m) to one-year deals. The goal with all free agent signings should be to target guys that do one thing exceptionally well.

Ludwick and Hairston crush lefties. Izturis plays great defense. These are potentially desirable commodities in July when they can be flipped for more prospects.

Unitl then, they give Terry Collins some flexibility as well.

7-Sign Kevin Correia ($5m), Chris Young ($5m), Jeff Keppinger ($2m), and Kelly Shoppach ($2m) to fill the roster.

Correia and Young are your proverbial innings-eaters that should keep the team in most games they start. Not looking for them to be top-end starters. Keppinger can be an average third baseman. That’s really all you can ask for at this price. Shoppach provides good defense and will play against lefties.

8-Spend the maximum amount of money possible on the draft without surrendering future draft picks. The draft is the cheapest way to acquire talent, but for some reason, the Mets have never understood this. (I know this isn’t an “offseason” item but the moves above are meant to be made with the budget in mind so they can spend in the draft.)

As I wrote on TheSportsBanter (here) last season, the Mets could have essentially traded half a season of Scott Hairston for a second round pick. This is a microcosm of the way things have operated in Flushing, and that needs to change.

With a projected 2013 salary of approximately $75m*, the Mets have every reason to invest as much money as possible (without losing any picks) to acquire the best talent available in June’s draft.

*This $75m figure does not include the effect of trades. If Ryan Ludwick is dealt mid-season, they shave another $3m off that number.

**********************

Again, this is a team that has some interesting parts that can hopefully traded in July for prospects with much brighter futures. This roster has very few long-term obligations:

25-Man Roster (2013 salary in millions; arbitration-eligibles rounded to nearest million)

C: Shoppach ($2) / Thole ($1)
1B: Ike Davis ($1)
2B: Daniel Murphy ($1)
SS: Ruben Tejada ($1) / Izturis ($1)
3B: Keppinger ($2)
LF: Ludwick ($6) / Mike Baxter ($1)
CF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis ($1) / Jordany Valdespin ($1)
RF: Lucas Duda ($1) / Hairston ($2)

SP: Correia ($5), Young ($5m), Niese ($3), Harvey ($1), Dillon Gee ($1)
RP: Frank Francisco ($6.5), Madson ($6), Soria ($4), Bobby Parnell ($1), Josh Edgin ($1), Jenrry Mejia ($1), Jeremy Hefner ($1)

Hitters: 13 at $21m
Pitchers: 12 at $35.5m
Dead Money: $18.5m Johan Santana ($15.5) and Jason Bay ($3)
Total 2013 Salary: $75m


Lineup vs RHP

1-Tejada
2-Murphy
3-Ike
4-Duda
5-Baxter
6-Nieuwenhuis
7-Keppinger
8-Thole

Lineup vs LHP

1-Tejada
2-Keppinger
3-Ike
4-Ludwick
5-Hairston
6-Shoppach
7-Murphy
8-Valdespin

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Picks: Week of 11/7-11/12

Pretty flat week (6-6; -0.9 units). My best move would have been to take the exact opposite of my 3-team parlay where I went o-fer.

Brutal week for my futures wagers. Took my hit this week on West Virginia winning the Big 12, then watched the Broncos and Steelers win, and saw the Browns and Chiefs lose. I think my Cardinals future last year has skewed me to making futures bets, but the more I try my hand at this, the worse of an idea it seems like.

Trip to the in-laws place on Saturday so I'll take it easy on the college scene and try to hammer the NFL.


College Football

Louisiana-Lafayette +26.5 (at Florida): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Penn State +7.5 (at Nebraska): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Tulsa -2.5 (at Houston): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units


NFL

Colts -3 (at Jaguars): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Chargers +3 (at Bucs): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Bears -1.5 (vs Texans): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Parlay- Colts -3 / Bears -1.5: 2.5 units to win 6.4 units L -2.5 units
Teaser- Pats -1 / 49ers -1.5 / Steelers -2: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units L - 6.0 units

 
EPL

TBD

Basketball

Lakers +3.5 (at Jazz): 3.3 units to win 3.0 units L 3.3 units
Heat -2 (at Grizzlies): 10.0 units to win 10.0 units L - 10.0 units

Season Record (beginning 9/1/12)

CFB: 26-19 (+12.3 units)
NFL: 24-13 (+48.1 units)
EPL: 5-5 (-1.0 units)
Basketball: 1-1 (0.0 units)

Pending:
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units
Arizona to win NCAA Title: 2.5 units to win 30.0 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units

Monday, November 5, 2012

Did I Call This?

Yesterday, in my 11 Things I Know I know, I wrote:

6. I know it was a bad week for Vegas as favorites have gone 10-2 so far this week. I'm sure Darren Rovell or Chad Millman will have some numbers tomorrow about how much gamblers won.

Wouldn't you know it, at 2:29pm today, Darren Rovell comes out with this article.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 9

1. I know the Bears defense pushes them past the Packers as the best team in football. The defense has scored seven, yes 7!, touchdowns in eight weeks. That's amazing. The NFL record is 9, by the way. Mix in 25 sacks, 17 interceptions, and 14 forced fumbles, and this defense is on pace to be the best ever. Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Brandon Marshall can do enough on offense to make them a serious Super Bowl contender.



One of my favorite plays of the week was the entire offensive line pushing Forte into the end zone on his touchdown. (Trying to get video.)

Also, for what it's worth, my top 4: Bears, Packers, Texans, and the Falcons.

2. I know the NFC North is easily the best division in football. It helps having the two best teams in football in the same division but combined, these four teams are 10 games over .500. The next closest division is two games over the mark (NFC West). Every team has a positive point differential. No other division has more than two teams that can say that. This is going to be an exciting final eight weeks.

3. I know the Colts are an actual threat to make the playoffs. As I wrote four weeks back, Andrew Luck is the real deal. With the Chuck Pagano situation adding another element of motivation, the Indianapolis Colts have a one game lead in the AFC Wildcard race. After all that has gone on in Indy, I have to think there is a large population of this country rooting for them to keep the leg up.

4. I know Doug Martin is not Ray Rice 2.0. He's better. He's got 486 yards and six touchdowns in the last two weeks. BEAST.

5. I know this clas sof rookie quarterbacks just keeps getting better. Ryan Tannehill and RGIII both lost today but things look promising for the Dolphins and Redskins. Russell Wilson led the Seahawks to another home win, moving Seattle into a tie for the second NFC Wildcard spot. Even Brandon Weeden had the Browns ahead of the Ravens in the fourth quarter before another inevitable collapse.

6. I know it was a bad week for Vegas as favorites have gone 10-2 so far this week. I'm sure Darren Rovell or Chad Millman will have some numbers tomorrow about how much gamblers won.

7. I know I liked Mike Tomlin's fake field goal a lot better than I liked Les Miles' fake field goal.

Down 20-17 with 11 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Pittsburgh faked a 20-yard gimme field goal. Tomlin knew even if they didn't convert the fake, they would have the Giants pinned deep in their own territory. They were stuffed on their attempt, but the Steelers forced a three-and-out and scored the go ahead touchdown on the next drive on their way to a 24-20 game. Smart gamble.

On the flip side, everyone in Louisiana knows Miles loves trickery on special teams. Couldn't have been more predictable. I also think Miles made a huge mistake when he green-lighted a fied goal attempt with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter instead of trying to make a first down on 4th-and-6 from the Bama 28. They win the game if they convert. Back to the NFL...

8. I know the Jaguars have the least hope of any franchise in football. Blaine Gabbert needs to be put out to pasture. Without MJD, this team has zero hope.

9. I know I liked/like: the Redskins throwback uniforms, especially the helmets; Reggie Wayne's touchdown celebration when he gave a fan a high-5; Torrey Smith's spin moe on the way to the end zone; CJ2K's speed; Eric Decker's hands.



10. I know I didn't/don't like: next week's slate of games which only pits two teams with winning records against each other; fans chanting Heeee-ath after Heath Miller catches a pass, I can understand Cruuuuz or Kuuuhn but why Heath?

11. I know the Eagles will beat the Saints tomorrow night, 34-30, as Michael Vick saves his job on national television. Philly's offense has been a joke. They have actually scored fewer points than the Chiefs, albeit in one less game. Fewer. Points. Than. The Chiefs. Unfortunately for the Saints, they give up 50 yards per game more than the next closest team. Their defense is historically terrible. It's only a matter of time before Vick and LeSean McCoy figure things out



"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is my favorite article each week.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Picks: Week of 11/1-11/5

I had a whole article written only to have it somehow get deleted. I'm not re-writing.

Thoughts and prayers to the people most affected by that whore, Sandy.

Heavy college 'dog week and light NFL slate.


College Football

Tulsa +9 (at Arkansas): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Maryland +8.5 (vs Georgia Tech): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Pitt +17 (at Notre Dame): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
USC +8 (vs Oregon): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
LSU +10 (vs Alabama): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
San Diego State +15 (at Boise State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Parlay- Maryland Pk / Ole Miss +14 / Oklahoma State-Kansas State Under 66.5: 2.5 units to win 31.2 units L - 2.5 units

NFL

Packers -10.5 (vs Cardinals): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Eagles +3 (at Saints): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

EPL

TBD

Basketball
Parlay- Pacers-Spurts-Rockets: 2.5 units to win 15.0 units L - 2.5 units
Rockets +6 (at Hawks): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Arizona to win NCAA Title: 2.5 units to win 30.0 units

Season Record (beginning 9/1/12)

CFB: 22-15 (+12.9 units)
NFL: 23-12 (+48.4 units)
EPL: 5-5 (-1.0 units)
Basketball: 0-0 (0.0 units)

Pending:
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units