Friday, July 26, 2019

Fixing the Mets in 10 Steps

This season has not gone as planned for the Mets. It happens. As Mets fans, we are more used to this than most, but the situation is certainly salvageable. Here are the 10 moves I would make with an eye towards 2020 and beyond.

1. Zack Wheeler and Dom Smith for Royce Lewis: Wheeler is a free agent after the season. Please don’t sign him to an extension now when we can get a prospect for him (a better one if we include Dom) and then re-sign him in the offseason. Dom Smith rakes but has no position with Pete Alonso in town. Sending him to the 1B-needy Twins along with Wheeler, who would be a postseason starter, makes sense from both sides. Lewis is hitting .243 in A-ball but he’s barely two years removed from being the #1 overall pick in the draft.

2. Jeurys Familia for Rusney Castillo and a C level prospect: The Mets take on money in this deal short term to clear it later. Familia is due about $2m the rest of the year while Castillo is owed just over $4m. Then next year, Castillo is dues about $3m more than Familia (14m vs 11m) but Castillo then comes off the books after the 2020 season while Familia is still owed another $11m. This move gets Castillo out of non-40-man purgatory. Let’s give him one more shot these last two months to see if he can be the starting RF in 2020.

3. Steven Matz for Josh James and B level prospect: Matz is getting expensive, and are we sure he can be relied upon? The Astros work miracles on their staff (see Miley, Wade). The Mets should try James as the closer for the next two months because…

4. Edwin Diaz and Jed Lowrie for Keibert Ruiz and Dustin May. I’m not rehashing the Diaz/Cano/Kelenic/Dunn deal here. Too painful, but let’s make the most of the situation. Ruiz is a big time catching prospect and May has mid-rotation stuff. And dumping the $11m owed to Lowrie gives us some money to spend in the offseason.

5. Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas for any C level prospect with a remotely famous last name. Does Bartolo Colon have a kid in the minors by now? If not, what about Aaron Ashby (Brewers, nephew of Andy) or Cory Abbott (Cubs, no relation to Jim) or Edmundo Sosa (Cards, no relation to Sammy) or Daulton Jefferies (A’s, no relation to Gregg) or Jose Soriano (Angels, no relation to Alfosno) Jhailyn Ortiz (Phillies, no relation to David) or you get the point…. Cash saving + lotto ticket seems like a fair return for these vets.

6. Thor and Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury's corpse and Didi Gregorious: Trading Thor is crushing, but this Cano contract (4 years, $96m left after this year) is an albatross. Maybe he will be motivated in the Bronx. Ellsbury’s contract is currently being paid by insurance but only has another year on it anyway. Like Castillo and Yo Cespedes, his deal will expire after 2020. Didi is a free agent after this year but would be a perfect addition to this team long term allowing Rosario to move to CF.

7. Juan Lagares to Colorado for a C level prospect. The Rocks could actually use Lagares’ defense in the vast expanses of Coors.

8. Wilson Ramos and Justin Wilson for Mason Denaburg. Straight forward deal. Two useful pieces for a B level rospect.

Offseason moves

9. Sign Gerrit Cole

10. Sign Anthony Rendon

2020 Lineup / Rotation

C: Nido/RUIZ
1B: Alonso
2B: McNeil
LF: Conforto
CF: Rosario
RF: R. Castillo

1 deGrom
4 TBD (Kay?)

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Mapping Out a Dream Draft Scenario for the Jets

1. Trade #3 to Washington for #15, #46, and Washington’s 2020 1st Rounder

2. Trade Pick #15 and #46 to Houston for #23 and Jadeveon Clowney

3. Use their picks in the following ways-

Pick 23: Garrett Bradbury, OL, North Carolina State
Pick 68: Greg Little, OL, Ole Miss
Pick 93: Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State
Pick 105: Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion
Pick 196: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
Pick 217. N.Y. Jets: Mark Fields, CB, Clemson

Come out of the weekend with two starting offensive linemen, an elite edge rusher, two high upside lotto tickets in Harmon and Ximines, and Washington’s 2020 first rounder. That seems like a W.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

NFL Draft Thoughts/Predictions

A bunch of random draft thoughts and predictions:

-This is a bad draft class overall, and it starts with the subpar quarterbacks. Daniel Jones is easily the most overrated, but Kyler Murray will play in fewer than 2.5 Pro Bowls in his career...which will be the most of any quarterback taken tomorrow night.

-Daniel Jones is Ryan Nassib 2.0.

-The offensive skill position players are also underwhelming. Maybe that's why everyone wants to trade down.

-In three of the last four drafts, the Jets have taken players that many argued were the best in the class despite not having the top pick (2015: Leonard Williams, 6th overall; 2017: Jamal Adams, 6th overall; 2018: Sam Darnold: 3rd overall). Could history repeat itself with Nick Bosa falling to #3? I'm not counting on it, but stranger things have happened. I'm also hoping Greg Little falls to the top of the third round so the Jets can pounce.

-I would love to see Devin Bush slide to #20 so he can replace Ryan Shazier in Pittsburgh.

-If the Giants take Dwayne Haskins at #6, they are the big winners of the draft process because they have thrown everyone off that scent.

-Does taking a tight end in the top 10 ever work out? Nope. That's why I have the Bills taking Hockenson at #9.

-I don't get all of the Josh Jacobs hype. He didn't start until the second half of his junior year, and now we are convinced he's the no-doubt best running back in this class? I'll take shares of Trayveon Williams 60 picks later.

-I also don't understand why Greedy Williams is dropping like a rock. He's 6'2" and flies. Are we really worried that he's not a great run defender?

-I hope I'm wrong because I love athletic freaks, but DK Metcalf has bust written all over him. Workout wonders don't always translate to on-field success. He has me worried. I'll take shares of Kelvin Harmon two rounds later.

-My favorite fits for player/team: Devin White/Lions and Brian Burns/Falcons.

-My favorite prop bet: Parris Campbell to be first wide receiver selected at 40-1. Worth a few sheckels.

-Three guys that I have not seen in any first round mocks that might sneak into the top 32 (aside from Parris Campbell): QB Ryan Finley, DB Nasir Adderley, and OL Chris Lindstrom

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

2019 NFL Mock Draft

Here's an abridged version this year without any projected trades:

Top 20
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
4. Oakland Raiders: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Allen, DE, Kentucky
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OL, Florida
8. Detroit Lions: Devin White, LB, LSU
9. Buffalo Bills: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
10. Denver Broncos: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
12. Green Bay Packers: Hollywood Brown, WR, Oklahoma
13. Miami Dolphins: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
14. Atlanta Falcons: Brian Burns, DE, Florida State
15. Washington Redskins: Drew Lock, QB, MIssouri
16. Carolina Panthers: Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama
17. New York Giants (from Browns): Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
18. Minnesota Vikings: Andre Dillard, OL, Washington State
19. Tennessee Titans: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

Jets Picks
68. N.Y. Jets: Greg Little, OL, Ole Miss
93. N.Y. Jets: Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State
105. N.Y. Jets: Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion
196. N.Y. Jets (from Chicago through Oakland): Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
217. N.Y. Jets: Mark Fields, CB, Clemson