Saturday, December 31, 2011

NFL: Week 17 Picks

Jets +3

Titans -2

Ravens -1.5

Chiefs +3.5

Colts +4

Record: 34-40-6

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

NBA Season Preview

Eastern Conference

1- Miami
2- Indiana
3- New York
4- Chicago
5- Boston
6- Philadelphia
7- Atlanta
8- New Jersey

Western Conference

1- Denver
2- LA Clippers
3- Dallas
4- Oklahoma City
5- Memphis
6- San Antonio
7- LA Lakers
8- Portland

NBA Finals: Clippers over Knicks

MVP: Dwyane Wade
Rookie: Ricky Rubio

Lastly, make sure you avoid Al Jefferson in your fantasy draft. This guy makes terrible offcourt decisions, like dating this 38 year old nut. This beauty was arrested last week on charges that she bit Al. Stay away from both of them.

Quick Thoughts

*The Falcons were upset that the Saints called plays that allowed Drew Brees to set the all-time passing record last night? Instead of whining, stop the guy. Just because Sean Payton called the plays doesn't mean you have to let them be successful. Look in the mirror before complaining.

*The Mets are getting rid of their Class A team in the Gulf Coast League because it will cost them about as much money as they pay Jason Bay to play every three weeks. Bite nose, spite face.

*First it was TJ Ford enjoying the fruits of Croatia and now another heralded college point guard will be doing the same: Khalid El-Amin. Smart guys.

KEA, just as svelte as I remember him

*Maybe I'm old school but I am not a fan of all the flair NBA players are wearing these days. And, yes I know I sound like a greybeard when I say that. I would estimate that a quarter of the players in the league wear either two arm-sleeves or two knee pads with half of that total wearing both. No matter how much clothing you wear now, no one is forgetting about those short shorts of the 80's.

*I'm a little late to the game on this one, but it's a pretty cool article about paying NBA players based on their on-court production.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Monday Mullet

Ugly man, beautiful mullet.

Just For Men pitchman Randy Johnson

Saturday, December 24, 2011

NFL: Week 16 Picks

Cowboys -1
49ers -2
Chargers +1
Bears +13
Falcons +6

Record: 34-36-5

Friday, December 23, 2011

Jacksonville's Conundrum

Next week, the Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Indianapolis Colts in a seemingly innocuous season finale.

A closer look, however, will show this to be the most important game of the week. In fact, the future for a number of teams rests on the outcome.

First, the Jaguars. If they win this game, they will hand the Colts Stanford QB Andrew Luck. That means for the next 10-12 years, they will have to face Luck at least twice per season. A win for the Jags would also mean a drop from the fourth overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft to as low as tenth overall depending on the outcome of a slew of games these next two weeks.

Now, the Colts. A win in this game would likely cost them Luck. By my count, this would  keep one person in the organization happy - Peyton Manning - and even that is a stretch as he won't be playing for too many more seasons and must understand the business of football by now.

Eyes in Minnesota and St. Louis will also be fixated on this riveting 2-13 vs 4-11* matchup. Within the last two seasons both the Vikings (Christan Ponder, 12th overall in 2011) and Rams (Sam Bradford, 1st overall on 2010) have spent high first round picks on franchise quarterbacks. While it's likely too soon to pass final judgment on how good these two are, it is widely believed, although not by this author, that Luck is the best quarterback prospect to come along in 20 years. Would either team be willing to take their chances with Luck?

*Assumes Tennessee will handle business in Week 16 against the Jaguars.
Lastly, the rest of the league. There might be a couple win-and-in games in Week 17 but the chances of a team which needs to win their last game just to get into the playoffs advancing very far is low. There are definitely counter-examples to this - like Green Bay just last season - but I'll stick to my thesis that the Jax-Indy game will be more meaningful a decade from now. Put more bluntly, no team winning a win-and-in game this season will advance to the Super Bowl.

As a gambler, I'm extremely curious what the line will be. It's a game that neither team wants to win and will be a great example of winning the war but losing the battle... or something like that. Where's Cadillac Williams when you need him?


Monday, December 19, 2011

Monday Mullet

Terrible name for a pitcher, terrible hair for a human being

College Football: Bowl Picks Volume I


Florida International -4
: This game is being played in St. Petersburg, FL so the crowd should be on the side of the Golden Panthers. FIU is also the better team in this matchup. They have playmakers on offense (T.Y. Hilton, Wes Carroll) and a top-20 defense in the nation. Marshall struggles to move the ball on offense, and they allow almost 90 more yards per game and they amass.


Boise State -14
: Are the Broncos disappointed to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl? Of course they are. However, they lost one game (by one point) all season and one game all of last season (by three points). Kellen Moore has accumulated more wins as a starting quarterback than anyone else in FBS history. He won't let this team throw in the towel. On the other side, we have an Arizona State team that seemingly cannot wait for this nightmare season to be over. After a 5-1 start, the Sun Devils skidded to a final record of 6-6. They have lost their last four games on just saw their coach get fired. I don't see the motivation.


Western Michigan +3
: Broncos WR Jordan White had more receiving yards this season the top four Boilermaker wide receivers combined. QB Alex Carder led a lethal aerial attack that averaged over 330 yards per game. On the flip side, the defense struggled to stop anyone with a pulse as they allowed over 430 yards and 28 points per game. This game is being played in Detroit so it can't be considered a home game for either team, but I think Western Michigan has the added incentive of trying to knock off the Big 10 squad.

Regular Season Record: 37-27-2 (PoW: 6-8; Upset: 7-7)
Bowl Record: 0-0

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

NFL: Week 15 Picks

Three games under .500 with three weeks to play. Need to get there to save some face.

Chiefs +15
Seahawks +3.5
Chargers +2.5
Jets +3
Broncos +7

Record: 31-34-5

Monday, December 12, 2011

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Week 14 Thoughts

Time constraints are preventing me from writing a full "11 Things" article, but here are a few thoughts.

-Tim Tebow is Christ. Impossible to argue so don't even try.

-Marion Barber was put on this Earth to make Christ look good. He cost the Bears the game today by not going out of bounds with under two minutes to play. Not his fault. God made him do it.

 God's Will, not Marion Barber's, be done

-During the Denver game, they showed a clip of kicker Matt Prater making a 70-yard field goal during pregame warmups. Would have been really cool to see him attempt one of those in the game.

-San Diego was one miracle away from being a game out of first place with three to play. Now, they are two games out and need help from either Buffalo or Kansas City in order to reach the playoffs. Can't see it happening.

-Ryan Succop's pathetic attempt at an onside kick (it went two yards) epitomizes how bad the Chiefs are. Man, that was ugly.

-The Jets took advantage of today's favorable schedule. They beat the last place Chiefs and then sat back and watched their closest wildcard competitors fall to each of their respective first place opponents: Cincinnati (lost to Houston), Tennessee (to New Orleans), and Oakland (to Green Bay).

-Early in the year, Detroit started slowly and was forced to win from behind. Today, that script was reversed. I'm excited to see what this offense can do when they are firing on all cylinders for all four quarters.

-If the Josh Freeman honeymoon wasn't over already, it is now. Tampa Bay is terrible.

-Raise your hand if you can figure out the Eagles or the Dolphins. Me either.

-The loss of Greg Jennings could be huge. On the bright side, the Packers really don't need him for five or six weeks.

-The 49ers ineptitude in the red zone today might have cost them the number two seed in the NFC. They have zero shot of beating New Orleans in the SuperDome so San Fran better not slip up the rest of the way.

-Good for Pats' offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien for calling out Tom Brady, who was in the midst of calling out wide receiver Tiquan Underwood after a red zone interception. That was a terrible throw, and it looked like Brady was blaming someone else.

-How cool would it be to have the reputation of being "the strongest man on the planet"? Cris Collinsworth bestowed that honor on Giants DT Linval Joseph.

-Speaking of the Giants, there was no volume on the television I was watching during the first quarter of tonight's game. I can't figure out why the JPP sack was ruled a safety. Romo was clearly out of the end zone when he was tossed backwards. If the referee ruled that Romo was choosing to run backwards, why was the play blown dead as soon as he fell down?

-James Harrison deserves to be suspended not just for his Thursday Night cheap shot against Colt McCoy but for the multitude of fine-earning hits he has made over the years, just like N-kong Suh.

-Seattle will beat St. Louis tomorrow night, 33-to-who cares.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

What Are You Thinking, NBA Decision Makers?

David Stern

You are the Commissioner of the National Basketball Association, not my Assclowns Fantasy League. What are you doing vetoing deals, especially a deal that seems to be fair for all parties involved. For my money, the Hornets would have actually made out better than the other teams involved, but who am I to say?

Neither the players nor the owners trust
you anymore. Time to go.

[Editor's Note: While we are at it, can't the Rockets and Lakers each send a second round pick to New Orleans so this trade can be processed? It won't solve our Commish issue, but at least we can all get on with our lives.]

Donnie Walsh

Walsh did a very nice job ridding the Knicks of their awful contracts, but I have two bones to pick with his recent work.

First, on April 28, 2011, New York re-signed Chauncey Billups to a one-year $14.2 million contract. Now, less than eight months later, Billups is being amnestied. This seems to be the white elephant in the room because I haven't heard anyone discuss the fact the team just threw all this money down the drain. To top it off, Billups is telling teams not to claim him through the waiver process in hopes he can double dip (get paid the full $14.2m from the Knicks plus whatever his next team agrees to pay him). In order to spite the Knicks, he has also reportedly discussed signing with the Miami Heat for the veteran's minimum, screwing the Knicks over yet again.

Second, Walsh just gave balky-backed Tyson Chandler a four-year $60m+ contract. Yes, the guy plays defense, something foreign in these NYC parts. But, are you really committing to TC instead of making a run at a legitimate franchise player next offseason? Is the Stat-Melo-Chandler trio good enough to win the East without a bona fide point guard? I just don't see it.

Daryl Morey

Morey is the Billy Beane of the NBA.

Vastly overrated "innovators" whose teams have
zero track record of any postseason success

On April 14, 2010, I wrote the following about the Rockets GM, and it still seems pretty accurate today.

As the Rockets' season comes to yet another disappointing close tonight, I am left asking myself a potentially blasphemous question: is Daryl Morey overrated?

On a personal level, I am enamored with Morey. I have met him twice while attending his MIT Sports Analytics Conference (each of the last two years) and came away extremely impressed both times. He's approachable, well-spoken, and genuinely likeable in a Seth Rogen kind of way. Bill Simmons christened him "Dork Elvis" for his popularity among statheads.

Professionally, Morey is credited with revolutionizing player analysis by using quantitative analysis to greatly supplement his and his scouts' views. Many in the industry believe him to be one of the game's brightest managerial stars.

In a recent edition of his "NBA Future Power Rankings Column" (Insider access required), ESPN's Chad Ford ranked the Rockets 10th, based largely on the team's "management." In fact, of all 30 teams, he rated Houston second best in this category. Granted, this category takes into account more than just the GM, but Morey clearly steers this ship.

So, where's the problem?

Simple. The performance of a GM's team, not his academic credentials (Morey received his MBA from MIT), should do the talking, and in this case, I am not wowed. Despite inheriting a 52-win team, Morey's teams have won only one playoff series in his three years.

Let's look at Morey's history.

Less than two weeks into his new role as front office boss in Houston, Morey fired head coach Jeff Van Gundy on May 18, 2007 (after the team's third first-round exit in four seasons under JVG) and replaced him with Rick Adelman. Aside from JVG's disastrous 2005-6 season, these two coaches have had virtually identical success in Houston. A lateral move for the most part - although ESPN greatly benefited since JVG has proven to be a great TV commentator.

Under Adelman, in the 2007-8 season, the Rockets finished with the sixth best record in the Western Conference and lost to the Jazz in the first round of the playoffs.

In the 2008-9 season, they finished with the fifth best record in the Western Conference and beat the Blazers in the first round of the playoffs before succumbing to the Lakers in the second round.

This year, they will not make the playoffs.

Morey might not have an open checkbook, but over the last three years, Houston has been in the top half of the NBA in terms of dollars spent on salary. Now, I understand injuries have played a role as Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have missed significant time over the last three years for a variety of ailments. But again, the mark of success in the NBA lies in a team's performance, namely its playoff performance, and Morey's squads have failed in this regard.

Has he made good moves (his draft history includes the likes of Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry)? Yes.

Has he made great moves (ripping off the Knicks and Kings at the 2010 trade deadline)? Absolutely.

In the end though, just because a General Manager uses numbers in an innovative way, hires a dozen interns, and gets a nickname from a famous sportswriter, it does not make him great at his job.

Bottom Line: Morey might turn out to be one of the game's all-time greats. Unfortunately, thus far, the team has not markedly improved since he took over three years ago. Until that happens and the team makes at least one deep run in the postseason, I believe it is premature to call him one of the game's best.

[The Rockets missed the playoffs again in 2010-11.]

This proposed three-team deal would see the Rockets ship off Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Goran Dragic, and at least one first round pick for Pau Gasol. Call me skeptical of yet another lateral move for a team stuck in neutral.

Dan Gilbert

All goodwill this guy amassed when LeBron pimped him and the city of Cleveland last summer has evaporated in one year. Why are you complaining about the Lakers getting CP3? It's good for the NBA and might offer opportunity to your team. Anytime trades are made, there are other shoes that drop. Maybe one of the teams involved in this deal would have needed a piece to complete their new look team. Maybe they would be interested in doing business with you. Not happening now.

Your team is years away from contention. This just pushed you back further.

Geoff Petrie / Rod Thorn

Wasn't the point of the lockout to prevent deals like this from scrolling across ESPN's BottomLine:

Kings Sign Marcus Thornton for 4 years / $32m

76ers Sign Thaddeus Young for 5 years / $42m

Good Lord. What are GP and RT thinking?

(You know something is wrong when John Hollinger and I agree on something.)

Thursday, December 8, 2011

NFL: Week 14 Picks

Need to get back to .500 before I explain picks. Will that happen this year?

Steelers -14
Chiefs +9
Lions -7
Eagles +3
Texans +3

Record: 29-31-5

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Please Stop With the "Manning for MVP" BS

There have been some people suggesting that Peyton Manning deserves MVP votes this season despite not having played a single down.

NFL Magazine, a league-owned publication, went a step further and actually named Peyton their MVP.

[Editor's note: this is ridiculous for a few reasons: 1. The season is only 75% over; 2. It's a slap in the face to every player that actually PLAYED this year. I digress.]

Here are three questions / answers that I hope will stop this push.

-Would anyone vote for a retired player in any sport to win MVP? No, because it's nonsensical. In 1997-98, Michael Jordan led the Bulls to a 62-20 record and won his sixth NBA title. He retired immediately thereafter. The following year, Chicago went 13-37 in a lockout shortened season. Did everyone realize how great MJ was? Sure. Did anyone suggest Jordan for MVP? Of course not.

In 1998, John Elway led the Broncos to a 14-2 record and a Super Bowl title. He retired immediately thereafter. The following year, Denver went6-10 and missed the playoffs. Did everyone realize how great Elway was? Sure. Did anyone suggest he win the MVP? Of course not.

Manning should be treated like a retired player. We understand he's great, but that doesn't mean he's the MVP.

No one is arguing Manning is a great player; he's just not the 2011 MVP

-Do you realize how terrible the combination of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter, and Dan Orlovsky are at this point in their careers? The fact that Orlovsky could become the first player ever to start more than five games at quarterback for two different teams that went 0-16 summarizes it nicely. Collins was a very good quarterback at one time in his career. That time is not now. Curtis Painter has hair that hundreds of men would kill for, but unfortunately he's useless as a quarterback.

-Was this team in decline already before Peyton's injury? This team doesn't go 0-12 to start the year with Manning at the helm. That much is obvious. However, the team was trending downward for the last two seasons (admittedly, they did make the playoffs in both seasons), and the roster was aging. It is impossible to say what Indy's record would have been with Peyton, but with the way Houston is playing, it's not outrageous to think they would have missed the playoffs even with Peyton. Would anyone vote for him as the MVP if the Colts were 6-6 right now? Highly doubtful.

The best way to end this debate would be for the Colts to draft Andrew Luck and keep the rest of the roster largely intact. Then, with Manning starting under center next year, working with the same guys, we would be able to see how much of a difference he actually makes.

What does everyone else think?

Winter Meeting Thoughts

*As a Met fan, I love that 32-year old Mark Buehrle signed with the Marlins for 4-years / $58m. There is a 0.25% chance of this contract working out well for the Fish.

He's a slightly above average starter that will give you 200+ innings a year. Ok, he's a lefty. So what? Why is there such a premium placed on lefthanders?

I know fantasy baseball is just that: fantasy. But you cannot tell me a guy who will find himself drafted after at least 60-75 other starting pitchers in next year's drafts warrants a contract of this size.

This deal stinks of Jeff Suppan, Brad Radke, and Kevin Appier all wrapped in one. And, I'm overjoyed by the stench.

(Apologies for the poor quality, but MLB is stingy with their highlights)

Buehrle is a great athlete and made one of the most incredible defensive plays I've ever seen, but that doesn't justify giving him almost $15m per season.

I wouldn't mind watching them fork over $90m+ for CJ Wilson, either.

*This is somewhat unrelated to the Winter Meetings, but it was announced today that Tim McCarver - yes, the same Tim McCarver I have decried as one of the WORST announcers in all of sports - was named the Ford Frick Award recipient for 2011. This means McAwful will be headed to the Hall of Fame for his excellence in broadcasting.

Yes, the BASEBALL HALL OF FAME IN COOPERSTOWN, NY. And, yes, Tim McCarver. What is going on here?

I would call this a shame, a travesty, a sham, and a bad joke, but Matt at Awful Announcing did a better job than I could.

To put into context how much AA and its readers hate McAwful, he find himself on the Mt. Rushmore-esque masthead of terrible announcers.

Seriously, am I dreaming right now? Tim McCarver going to the Hall of Fame. WTF.

*If true, I love the Octavio Dotel / Tigers deal. That's a solid bullpen now with Jose Valverde at the back and Dotel + Joaquin Benoit setting him up.

*Sandy, please stay away from Brad Lidge. However, if the Yankees are willing to pay almost all of AJ Burnett's salary, take a shot on the guy. He still has strikeout stuff and would give up far few homers in Citi Field than he did at Yankee Stadium.

*I'll give you the team's offseason philosophy; you name the team. [Hint: it's been the same philosophy for the last 20 years.]

Let's not make a major splash in free agency on established, quality talent. Instead, we'll overspend on lower-level guys and make believe everything will work out. When it doesn't, we can say we tried.

If you guessed the Pittsburgh Pirates, you are a winner.

After handing an outlandish, 2 year / $10.5m deal to Clint Barmes a few weeks back, they were back to their misguided ways today, inking Erik Bedard to a 1 year / $4.5m deal AND Nate McLouth to a 1 year / $1.75m deal.

Fast forward to August when the Pirates are ineveitably out of contention again, and GM Neil Huntington can point to these moves (and the Rod Barajas signing) and say the effort was there.

It's amazing when you look at the history of awful signings they have had. These are all of the players they have given Major League deals worth at least $1m in the last five offseasons:

2006- Tony Armas
2007- Chris Gomez
2008- Eric Hinske, Ramon Vasquez
2009- Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby, Octavio Dotel (blind squirrel finds nut), Brendan Donnelly
2010- Lyle Overbay, Kevin Correia, Matt Diaz

Just because you pay someone to play like a star doesn't mean they are one.

Thank God for the Steelers and Penguins.

*At the July trade deadline, Carlos Beltran fetched a top-flight pitching prospect. Now, no one wants to sign this guy? He's not tied to any draft pick compensation. What am I missing?

*Seriously, Sandy, get your head right. I don't want to be sitting here tomorrow wondering what you were thinking when you traded away Ike Davis and Jon Niese.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Sandy Has Lost It

Trading Angel Pagan for two scrubs and giving Frank Francisco a two-year $12m deal?

Then signing Jon Rauch. We aren't playing basketball, Sandy. His 6'10" frame isn't helping us.

Old Man Is Off His Wagon.

College Football: Regular Season Summary

Because I never bet against the Service Academies, I will not be picking the Army-Navy game this weekend. That means, Week 14 concluded my college football regular season.

My record was: 37-27-2 (PoW: 6-8; Upset: 7-7)

I will be making bowl selections so check back over the next few weeks. I'm hoping to write in a bit more detail about each pick if time allows.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Monday Mullet

Juan Gonzalez made $87m in his career but couldn't afford a proper haircut

Sunday, December 4, 2011


First the Mets lose Jose Reyes. Then I realize they'll only get a supplemental first rounder and a THIRD rounder for him.

Brilliant, Sandy. Just brilliant.

Oh, and now Ruben Tejada is our shortstop of the future.


Initial Bowl Game Thoughts

*I've beaten this drum way too many times already, but I think it's garbage that there will be a rematch for the national title. We've already seen this game. Ok, I'm done complaining about this.

*I love the Illinois vs UCLA matchup in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Both teams fired their head coaches (Ron Zook and Rick Neuhesiel). I'm interested to see which team thought more highly of their outgoing coach.

*If you don't believe the whole BCS system is a sham, look no further than Virginia Tech playing in the Sugar Bowl. I was at the ACC Championship Game last night, and this team was terrible. They do not deserve to be anywhere near a meaningful game, after all:

1- they haven't beaten any good team this season,
2- they had their chance last night and squandered it, and
3- there are at least three (Boise State, Kansas State, Oklahoma) and maybe four (Baylor) more qualified teams that were passed over

Va Tech fans might* buy more tickets than some of these other institutions, but the BEST TEAMS should be playing in these games, not the teams with the most fans.

*I say "might" becuase Hokies fans didn't exactly show up in droves for the title game last night in Charlotte, a city within driving distance from campus.

*I know Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alumnus, but it seems like the Razorbacks find a way to play at Cowboys Stadium every year. They will take on Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl on January 6th in Dallas.

*If the the over/under for the Rose Bowl is any two-digit number, I'm taking the over. Wisconsin and Oregon are going to light up the scoreboard.

*The Urban Meyer Bowl, err, Gator Bowl between Ohio State and Florida will be a must watch as well.

Without this guy's involvement,
no one would have faulted you for skipping this game.

*The Liberty Bowl between Vanderbilt and Cincinnati features the two teams that offered "Behind the Scenes" packages in Buster Olney's Vermont fundraiser. I made bids on both but lost. Maybe I'll go to this game and knock them out in one shot.

*I'm happy that teams like Temple, Utah State, Wyoming, Ohio, and Arkansas State have the opportunity to play in bowl games. Just don't expect me to watch them.

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 13

1. I know the Tebows are in first place. Under the leadership of the The Glorious One, they have won five games in a row and six of the seven He has started. They are 4-0 on the road and sit atop the AFC West at 7-5 despite having been outscored by opponents 292-256 this season. The craziest stat in my opinion: Denver has only won one game this year by more than a touchdown. Keep the game close until the fourth, and then outwill the other team. If it ain't broke...

2. I know that as a fan, I would much, much, much, much prefer to have a camera placed on each of the end lines, each of the sidelines, and each of the goal lines than having them focused on each of the head coaches. CBS and Fox spend billions of dollars broadcasting these games, how can there ever be a question about what happened near a boundary? Spend the extra money and fix these cameras in position. Watching Tom Coughlin about to break into tears gets boring the 19th time we see it each game.

3. I know intelligent timeout usage is at an all-time low. I'm still baffled at the lack of clock management skills by head coaches. These guys are brilliant with the X's and O's but laughably bad when it comes to mathematics. (Editor's Note: I would be more than happy to help on your sideline Jason Garrett, Andy Reid, Mike Shannahan, Mike and Lovie Smith, or anyone else in need of help.)

4. I know the Bears will be calling Donovan McNabb if they haven't done so already. Caleb Hanie looks lost, and without Matthew Forte, this Bears offense stands no chance with CH at the helm.

Will McNabb be fitted with his FOURTH jersey in the last two years?

5. I know the Washington Redskins need to draft Robert Griffin III. Rex Grossman has negative pocket presence, and we know John Beck is awful. Mel Kiper called for the 'Skins to trade for Peyton Manning, but I think that makes very little sense. This roster is filled with deep threat wide receivers and lacks much in the way of a possession receiver. Manning would get these smallish guys killed with his questionable throws over the middle. Imagine RGIII throwing to Santana Moss, Brandon Banks, and Anthony Armstrong all day? That would be fun to watch. Much more fan that the offense being trotted out right now in DC.

Things won't get easier for Rex the rest of the way as he'll likely be without Fred Davis and Trent Williams, who were both suspended four games for drug use.

6. I know TJ Yates looked serviceable at quarterback for the Texans, but they cannot survive without Andre Johnson over the long haul. Yates made a couple questionable decisions with the ball, but he "managed the game" in a Trent Dilfer-kind-of-way (that is a compliment). Andre Johnson, however, went down with appeared to be a re-aggravation of a hamstring injury that sidelined him for almost two months earlier this year. If he's done for the season, so is Houston.

Something working nicely in Houston's favor, through Week 13, the AFC South has the least combined wins of any division in football. They are a shoo-in for the playoffs, but need AJ80 if they want to advance once they get there.

7. I know that all week I was telling anyone who would listen (not many people) how much today's Giants-Packers game reminded me of the 2007 Week 17 Giants-Patriots game. It's very fitting both games had the identical 38-35 score. New York caught a nice break when Dallas lost at Arizona today, making next week's matchup with the Cowboys a battle for first place in the NFC East.

8. I know the Browns are going to surprise some people next year. In this year's Draft, they focused completely on defense, and it worked. Next year, if they use their two first round picks on a quarterback and a skill position offensive player, they can make a run.

9. I know I was wrong about Cam Newton. I doubted this rookie when doing all of my 2011 NFL Draft prep work, and he has made me look pretty foolish.

After three more today, Newton now holds the single-season rushing touchdown record for a quarterback (13). More importantly, he has turned last year's pathetic 2-14 squad into a respectable 4-8 team that no one wants to face.

10. I know I will be sick of all the BCS Title Game rematch talk by next Wednesday. I never thought I'd say this about a national championship game, but I am not excited whatsoever. Either give Oklahoma State a shot at LSU or just give the title directly to the Tigers who already beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

11. I know the Chargers will beat the Jaguars 24-19 on Monday Night Football. I'm a little conflicted on this one. On one hand, San Diego has nothing to play for and the whole Jacksonville roster will be trying to impress their new owner and coach. On the other hand, Jacksonville is one of three teams since 1994 not to score at least 20 points in any of their first 11 games of the season (hat tip, CHFF). Talent wins out.

For what it's worth, the remaining slate of Thursday Night games is atrocious so plan accordingly.

"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

College Football: Week 14 Picks

Baylor -2.5
Georgia +14

Upset: Clemson +7
Pick of the Week: Wisconsin -9.5

Record: 35-25-2 (PoW: 6-7; Upset: 6-7)

NFL: Week 13 Picks

I'm one game under .500. Until I get there, no explanations.

I will say that I'm glad I saved my $1,500 and didn't enter the Hilton SuperContest in 2011. Maybe in 2012...

Raiders +3
Browns +7
Bengals +7
Giants +9
Chargers -1.5

Record: 27-28-5

Non-Sports Post: Classic Frame Job

Brooklyn - A vandal went on a tire-slashing rampage overnight on Monday, stranding more than three dozen cars on 71st and 72nd streets — and residents say that the carnage came a day after a Park Slope tire shop plastered the area with business cards. Neighbors on the block between Third Avenue and Ridge Boulevard said that the vandals slashed at least one tire on up to 40 cars 24 hours after business cards for Danny’s Rims Tires and Accessories were placed on dozens of car windshields.“It could just be coincidental, but it’s kind of fishy,” said one neighbor who declined to be identified because he feared retaliation by whoever was behind the tire slashings. “Most times, it’s just some kid and they hit one tire. But this time, they did it so that you can’t just throw a spare on.” Neighbors agreed that the carnage was too widespread to be the work of teens out having fun…

Cops said that they were looking into the connection between the slashings and the cards for the shop on Fourth Avenue between 11th and 12th streets. “We are aware that there were some cards found on the area,” said Captain Richard DiBlasio. “The 6-8 detective squad has an open investigation on that.”…

The brother of the tire shop’s owner flatly refused any connection. “It’s
got to be a bad coincidence,” said Jolio Moran. “We don’t pay people to slash tires. It’s frustrating that people would even think we would do something like that. We don’t even specialize in fixing flats. Our main thing is [selling] rims.” The shop pays two men to distribute the cards, he said. “My brother would never send people out to slash tires knowing that they’re going to come back here,” he said.

This reminds me of a time in college when I had a friend – we’ll call him Paul – who went into our baseball locker room and painted over everyone’s individual locker locks (including his own) with white out so no one could see the numbers. He left two lockers untouched. Those lockers belonged to two people we’ll call Andrew and Gary, who happened to be pranksters themselves and roommates. The hope of course was that we would all think Andrew and Gary were the guilty parties. Classic frame job.

Without knowing anything about the tire industry in Brooklyn, I’m guessing one tire company pulled a similar frame job here. Company A puts Company B’s business cards on all cars in the area. Then Company A slashes the tires in hopes everyone will think Company B was behind this reuse and in turn all the people who got their tires slashed will got to Company A to get them fixed. Not only will Company A get the business but it could put Company B out of business. Brilliant plan.

And for some reason I have a feeling Paul is behind this whole thing.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Monday Mullet

Great name, better hair

Sunday, November 27, 2011

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 12

1. I know it's time for the Jets to seriously consider an alternative to Mark Sanchez. Watching him - at least from the perspective of a Jet fan - is as nerve-wracking as anything I've seen in sports since having to endure the John Franco years in Flushing with the Mets. I don't think Mark Brunell is a better option for the rest of the year so it looks like we are stuck with Sanchize, but GM Mike Tannenbaum needs to bring in some talent under center for 2012. Maybe some competition will light a fire under Mark.

While he's add it, some skill position players who did not play in the Big 10 wouldn't hurt either.

Sanchez had one of the least impressive 4 TD games I can ever remember

2. I know Norv Turner needs to be fired. He is an absolute disastrous game manager (how do you not call timeout with 2:38 left in the game?), he motivates no one, and the Chargers have never developed a killer instinct during his tenure. Tim Tebow ran / willed the Broncos to victory today in one of the most boring, obvious game plans we've seen all year.

Time to go, Norv.

3. I know Andy Reid deserves another year. Sure, this Dream Team turned into a nightmare, but the guy has turned the Eagles into consistent winners. Even if they fail to make the postseason this year, Philadelphia has reached the playoffs in nine of the past 12 seasons. The Eagles have had only one losing season under Reid since 2000. Give the guy a chance to redeem himself. He's earned it.

4. I know the schedule down the stretch drastically favors the Cowboys in their quest to win the NFC East. Dallas will be favored in their next three games while the Giants will be underdogs in their next three (including on Monday Night Football tomorrow). New York needs to spring at least one upset if they want to play into January.

5. I know the Colts have clinched the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Indianapolis is now 0-11. Call me crazy, but I think Alabama RB Trent Richardson would do more for this organization over the next 7-10 years than Andrew Luck would. I also think next week's Indy-New England game might have the largest spread of the year (-20?).

6. I know it was a great week for leap-frogging defenders. Check out these two hops by LaGarrette Blount and Roy Helu, respectively: Here and here.

7. I know Stevie Johnson's Plax-Shooting-Himself celebration would have been 1000 times cooler if he didn't drop a game-winning touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

Johnson shooting himself in the leg would be followed in the fourth
by him shooting himself in the foot.

8. I know the only remotely interesting thing about the NFC West over the last five weeks of the season will be watching Patrick Peterson try to break the single-season punt return record. With his TD return today, PP has four this season, which ties the mark for one year.

9. I know the University of Miami alums started a new streak today. Week 11 marked the first time in 150 consecutive weeks that a former Hurricane did not score at least one touchdown. Reggie Wayne's 56-yard touchdown catch today got the U back on the right track.

10. I know that I couldn't be any less excited for the potential BCS title game rematch of LSU vs. Alabama. Why should LSU have to beat a team they already defeated on the road earlier in the year? Give the Tigers the title and we'll watch everyone else in compete in the other BCS bowls.

11. I know the Saints will knock off the Giants 34-17 tomorrow night. I don't see how New York can contain Drew Brees.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

College Football: Week 13 Picks

Happy Thanksgiving. Slow week with only three picks, but I like them a lot...

Wisconsin -14.5

Upset: Georgia Tech +6
Pick of the Week: Arkansas +12

Record: 34-23-2 (PoW: 6-6; Upset: 6-6)

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

NFL: Week 12 Picks

Bills +8
Bears +5
Titans -3
Dolphins +7
Lions +7

Record: 24-27-4

Monday, November 21, 2011

MLB Odds & Ends

*I had an offseason plan for the Mets which was due to be published last week. However, all indications are that compensation for Type B free agents will be eliminated. This was a major part of my write-up. So...back to the drawing board for me. I'll have an updated version of this article out in the next few weeks.

*On October 31st, the Braves declined their 2012 team option on Nate McLouth ($10.65m) thus making him a free agent. As bloggers, we wasted waaaaay too much time dissecting the 2009 trade that sent him to Atlanta from Pittsburgh for these three scrubs: Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez.

At least the Pirates saved themselves some cash in the deal. For just under $14m, what did Atlanta get from Nate "The Not Great At All" in that timeframe? 124 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, and 23 SB in 848 ABs. Not good.

*Old friend Timo Perez of early-2000s New York Mets fame was suspended 50 games for failing a drug test. Good to see he's still playing despite the fact he hasn't gotten a Major League at bat since September 29, 2007, roughly around the last time Nate McLouth was a decent player.

*How pathetic are things in Oakland these days? Rumor had it that Billy Beane met with Sir Sidney Ponson last week, presumably to talk about bringing in the fat man to pitch for the A's.

*Former San Diego Padres minor leaguer 1B / OF Craig Cooper is still unsigned. A solid source told me he would jump at the opportunity to compete for a roster spot in Spring Training as opposed to trading mortgage-backed securities.

Flat out AWESOME

Monday Mullet

Evan Longoria

Sunday, November 20, 2011

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 11

Here are 11 Things I Know I Know:

1. I know the Lions are back. After losing three of their last four, worries started to creep into the minds of the Detroit faithful.

To start today's game, Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions in his first eight passes and saw his team fall behind 24-7 in the opening 20 minutes. Time to panic? Nah. Detroit cut the lead to 13 by halftime and outscored Carolina 35-8 in the second half behind five Stafford touchdown passes.

Detroit hosts Green Bay on Thursday and might have the best chance of giving the Packers their first (only?) loss of the season.

Kevin Smith - apparently resurrected from the dead over the last two weeks -
had over 200 yards from scrimmage on Sunday

2. I know the Cowboys are dangerous and could find themselves in first place if the Eagles can pull off a mini-miracle tonight against the Giants. (Side note: Huge shout out to Mark Herzlich, starting his first NFL game tonight. Congratulations.)

You can never fully trust Tony Romo...or completely count him out. He's about as polarizing an athlete as anyone not named Tim Tebow, and he has the Cowboys sitting at 6-4 as they head into their Turkey Bowl against Miami. Speaking of Miami...

3. I know the Dolphins will be playing spoiler for the rest of the season. Their last six games are against teams with legitimate playoff aspirations: at Dallas, vs Oakland, vs Philadelphia (humor me), at Buffalo, at New England, and vs the New York Jets. If you want to be playing meaningful January games, do not take Miami - winners of three straight - lightly.

4. I know the slate of Thursday games will be the best tripleheader in Thanksgiving history.

I talked about the Green Bay / Detroit and Miami / Dallas games already. I didn't even touch on Brother Bowl, San Francisco at Baltimore. All three of these games have deep playoff implications.

Also, if you need to find me for some reason on Thursday, search my couch between the hours of 12:30 and 11pm and you have a 99.9% chance of success.

5. I know I was more impressed with the Bengals than I was with the Ravens despite the fact they lost. Cincinnati and Gingy Andy Dalton went into Baltimore and gave them all they could handle. Baltimore needed a late fourth quarter red zone stop to seal the seven-point victory. The Bengals did this all without their best offensive weapon, AJ Green.

6. I know the Jets have nine lives. The loss to Denver means winning the AFC East is out of the question. However, they are only a game out of the final Wildcard spot thanks to losses from all of their closest competitors, most notably Cincinnati. They have three very winnable games on the horizon (vs Buffalo, at Washington, and vs Kansas City). If they win those three, New York will almost assuredly be at least tied for the Wildcard lead since the Bengals have games at Pittsburgh and against Houston over the next three weeks.

7. I know the Chargers are the best team in NFL history to ever have lost five straight games in one season. This team is making the playoffs despite being two games under .500 through 10 games. They are about to rip off three or four straight wins to get themselves back into the race.

8. I know Bears will play a huge role in determining which team wins the AFC West? Chicago knocked off the Chargers today, visit Oakland next week, then host Kansas City in two weeks, and finally travel to Denver in three weeks. Crazy scheduling that a team in the NFC North plays another division's teams in four consecutive weeks.

9. I know Dante Stallworth now has as many touchdowns to his name since 2008 as he does murdered people: 1. The guy should be in jail, not having "Hail to the Redskins" sung to him.

10. I know anyone in favor of #DeathToTheBCS (should first get behind me in line and then) root for Arkansas to knock off LSU on Friday. If that happens, the top three teams in the current BCS standings - LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas - will have each beaten each other once and lost to each other once.

Behind them are some less-than-incredible-one-loss teams:

Stanford - Got smoked at home by Oregon
Oklahoma State - Lost as 30 point road favorites at Iowa State
Virginia Tech - Lost at home to Clemson
Boise State - Lost at home by one point to TCU on a last minute two-point conversion (for my money, the "strongest" loss of the one-loss teams)

Then come the 11-0 Houston Cougars.

Excited about any of those matchups? Me neither.

11. I know the Patriots will beat the Chiefs 44-13 on Monday Night Football. Billy B will love running up the score on his old protege Todd Haley. No Matt Cassel, no Jamaal Charles, no chance.

"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

College Football: Week 12 Picks

A solid 4-1 week pushes me up to 56% on the season.

UAB +23
Rutgers +3
LSU -29
Virginia +17
Kansas State +9.5

Upset: USC +15.5
Pick of the Week: Nebraska +3.5

Record: 28-22-2 (PoW: 6-5; Upset: 5-6)

NFL: Week 11 Picks

Good Lord Almighty. I'm looking back at my picks for the last three weeks and noticed I am 0-15. Do you realize the odds of that? 1 in 16,384. If you parlayed the opposite of my last three week's worth of picks, you could be a millionaire at this point. I have beaten myself up over this pathetic performance, and it's time to turn this around. Right? My wallet hopes so.

Broncos +6: White Jesus.
Dolphins -1: Bills are a fraud.
Packers -14: Best team in football, hands down.
Titans +6: Seems like too many points.
Redskins +8.5: These games always seem to be closer than they should be.

Record: 21-26-3

Check out Rook's Latest Article

He's got some wide receivers for you.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Introducing the Fe-Mullet

I can't believe it took me this long to think of this word. I'm so pumped right now I can't tell you.

Women in possession of a fe-mullet have been put on notice.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Link to Buy Low / Sell High

Rook put out a nice article today. Check it out:

College Football: Week 11 Picks

Virginia Tech -1
Kansas State +4.5
Washington +11.5

Upset: Navy +9
Pick of the Week: Oregon +3.5

Record: 24-21-2 (PoW: 5-5; Upset: 4-6)

NFL: Week 10 Picks

I'm 1-9 over the last two weeks. Until I break out of this funk, it's just picks without support:

Panthers -3
Giants +3.5
Lions +3
Ravens -7
Jets -1.5

Monday, November 7, 2011

Am I Dreaming Right Now?

Melky Cabrera just got traded for Jonathan Sanchez.

Um, what?

How did the Royals just pull off this coup? They are usually the ones getting ripped off not doing the ripping. I’m in shock right now.

Are the Giants giving anyone else away?

Every other GM in baseball is kicking himself right now for not realizing the Giants were ready to give away Sanchez.

I’m also shocked that the headline of the story is about the Giants acquiring Melky. It’s amazing what Yankee-related, name recognition gets you these days.

Maybe Shelly Duncan could net the Indians Matt Cain. At this point, anything seems possible.

Monday Mullet

Sunday, November 6, 2011

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 9

Full-fledged 11 Things will return in about a month, but here are some brief thoughts:

1. I know the Denver Tebows are one game out of the playoffs. Sure, they are 3-4 and need to jump three teams in their division, but let's give the Second Coming another few weeks before demanding his benching.

2. I know the Giants were the team of the week. Hard to argue with this one, either, as they went into Foxboro and came away with a victory despite being down twice in the fourth quarter alone...and despite employing Aaron Ross on their team. Even more impressive without Ahmad Bradshaw.

3. I know the Jets showed America the Bills are a fraud. What a terrible performance by Buffalo at home. New York's defense clearly got the rest it needed during the bye week and looks primed for a huge second half.

4. I know the Colts have the lead all to themselves in the Suck for Luck Race. I don't know what they would do with the pick, but I'm excited to find out. If Indy can't win one of their next two games (vs Jacksonville, vs Carolina), they might be staring at 0-16.

5. I know the 49ers are 7-0-1 against the spread this year. Why do I continue to doubt this team?

6. I know it's garbage that Alabama only dropped to 3rd in the BCS. They had their shot against the #1 team in the country and blew it. Stanford and Boise State have every reason to feel robbed.

7. I know the Bengals are legit contenders. I can't believe I just wrote that.

8. I know the Chargers are about to go on their typical second half of the season run. I thought they gained a lot of confidence as the game progressed today, and Phil Rivers can't be this bad all year.

9. I know the Saints are flying under the radar this season but figure to be a dangerous team in the postseason. In fact, this year's NFC playoffs could be among the best ever with Green Bay, San Fran, New York, New Orleans along with two of these teams: Philly, Detroit , Dallas, and Atlanta.

10. I know Thursday Night football starts this week. Make sure you set your fantasy lineups.

11. I know the Eagles will beat the Bears tomorrow night, 34-17.

Friday, November 4, 2011

College Football: Week 10 Picks

Last week was a very good one (3-1-1) that could have been great if not for one of the toughest pushes of all time. I had USC getting 8 at home and watched them blow a double-digit second half lead and then lose in triple overtime... by exactly 8 points. Brutal game for me, but least it was just a push. Trying to stay hot with these picks:

Pittsburgh +3.5
South Carolina +5
Washington +17

Upset: Texas Tech +14.5
Pick of the Week: Alabama -4.5

Record: 23-18-1 (PoW: 5-4; Upset: 4-5)

NFL: Week 9 Picks

After an 0-5 week, I'm embarrassed. Really terrible work by me. Let's get back to the winning ways:

Colts +7
Titans -1.5
Chargers +5.5
Chiefs -3.5
Jets +2

Record: 20-17-3

Monday, October 31, 2011

Who Will Be Kim K's Next Husband?

Banter favorite Kim Kardashian is back on the market. Who will she marry next?

Here's my guess:

LA Dodgers' outfielder, Matt Kemp

I have no idea why he's wearing goggles

My reasoning-

He's an athlete of African American persuasion, he's on the cusp of super-duper stardom, he's younger than KK, and he plays his home games in LA. Plus, he's dated a celebrity before (Rihanna).

Almost makes too much sense.

-Back to your regularly scheduled sports commentary-

2012 NFL Mock Draft: Take I

With apologies for not writing my usual Sunday night 11 Things column because of a prior commitment, here's a sneak peak at what the top 10 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft would look like if it were to happen today, and it's downright offensive (nine of 10 guys play on that side of the ball):

1. Miami - Some Dude Named Luck, QB, Stanford: If you haven't heard about this guy already, please close this tab of your browser and go pay attention.

2. Indianapolis - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: An incredible consolation prize for the team that misses on Luck at the top of the draft. Richardson might be on his way to winning the Heisman and would look great next to Peyton Manning in 2012. I encouraged Bill Polian & Co to take a shot on Bama's last Heisman-winning running back - Mark Ingram - in the 2011 Draft but to no avail. Now, they are stuck with the trio that brings fear to no one, Delone Carter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown. Richardson would change the whole dynamic of the Indy offense.

3. St. Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: This wouldn't be the sexiest pick, but the Rams whiffed the last time they took an offensive lineman this high (Jason Smith, number two overall in 2009) leaving a gaping hole on the left side of their line. That needs rectifying if they want to give Sam Bradford a shot to succeed.

4. Arizona - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Pretty sure Larry Fitzgerald would approve of this one. I considered Matt Barkley here for the Cardinals, but it's too early to give up on Kevin Kolb. I also think they have a bitter taste in their mouth from the last time they took a QB from USC in the top-10 (see Leinart, Matt). If Kolb can't hack it with the combo of Fitz and Blackmon, though, they'll be looking for a signal caller in 2013.

Love the idea of a Blackmon-Fitzgerald

5. Minnesota - Matt Kalil, OT, USC: The Vikings are all-in with Christian Ponder. Gottaa protect his blind side. Kalil has a great pedigree - his older bro his an offensive lineman for the Panthers - and he's honed is craft protecting Luck for the last three years.

6. Jacksonville - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Jaguars are one of the most boring teams in the NFL. As I said prior to this year's draft, they need playmakers. I completely disapproved of the Blaine Gabbert selection at the time (and still do), thinking they should have traded up for one of the premier wide receivers, AJ Green or Julio Jones. That didn't happen and now the offense is sputtering. Jacksonville has not had much luck at the position over the years - R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - but Floyd seems like a man on a mission this season despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Mike Thomas is miscast as a number one receiver. Get Gabbert some weapons.

7. Carolina - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Panthers, thanks to the miracle worker known as Cam Newton, are actually a decent team right now. The offense is flowing, and now it's the defense's turn to catch up. Claiborne is a shutdown corner that could pair with Chris Gamble to form one of the better combos in the NFL.

8. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Pete Carroll recruited this guy to USC and had enough faith in him that Barkley started from Day One as a freshman. If he slips this far, I think this is a no-brainer.

9. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: This whole Tim Tebow experiment is going to end badly...unless they move him to H-Back and have him carry the ball a few times a game. Jones has plenty of arm to throw through the winds in Denver, and he is the best option left on the board right now.

10. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The only thing that would shock me with the Redskins is if they weren't picking higher than 10th by the time April comes around. This is a bad team with a terrible quarterback situation. They will have a new body under center by next fall, and I'm guessing it will be the multifaceted RG3.

Monday Mullet


Thursday, October 27, 2011

NFL: Week 8 Picks

Huge 4-1 week sends me over 61% for the season and into the top 15% of the Hilton SuperContest.

Panthers -3: Christian Ponder got lucky in his first start last week. That won't last. I'm going to ride this Cam bandwagon until it throws me off.

Those of us backing this guy consistently have been all smiles.

Redskins +7: Call it the curse of the bye week, but I think the Bills will struggle after their week off. Washington is the more desperate team, and I expect them to play like it.

Saints -13: It is a rare, rare day when I take a road favorite especially when they are giving almost two touchdowns. However, this New Orleans offense couple with the atrocious St. Louis offense could make this one a romp.

Seahawks +2.5: Homefield advantage in Seattle is worth about a touchdown in my mind. I think the Seattle D can keep this in the game much like they did last week against the Browns. Vegas expects this one to be a low scoring affair too as they have the over/under at just 38, lowest of any game this week.

Cowboys +3.5: Again, that bye week thing hasn't been kind to teams. Dallas has been playing well and could put a huge monkeywrench in Philly's postseason plans. I'm guessing the Eagles win but by less than the spread.

Record: 19-12-3

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

College Football: Week 9 Picks

In a rut right now, so I'm gonna try to shake things up by making picks in list form.

Kansas State +14
Notre Dame / Navy - Over 62
USC +8
Upset: Illinois +5.5
Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State -13.5

Record: 20-17 (PoW: 4-4; Upset: 3-5)

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

"Suck for Luck" Hath a New Name...

... "The Dolphins Sign JP Losman"

This is priceless. Miami has decided to stop trying to pretend like they actually want to win games this year.

Just send Luck our way already. We'll do anything.

The only win UFL superstar JP Losman will lead Miami to:
the fist pick of the 2012 NFL Draft

The Hedge (Update)

As you remember, when faced with my initial decision, I could have hedged at the outset and guaranteed myself either $660 (Cardinals win Series) or $387 (Rangers win Series), but decided to just wager game-by-game (we’ll call it an intra-series).

Game 1, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Lost $150

Game 2, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Won $165
Running Total: +$15

After Game 2, I wimped (stronger words are probably appropriate here) out and took the Rangers to win the Series at -180. Bet $360 to win $200.

I stayed away from Games 3 and 4 in hopes the Cardinals could steal one because the Rangers were -200 to win both of those games. I lucked out when Albert Pujols cemented his status as the greatest hitter of our generation in St. Louis’ Game 3 victory.

The people who do these sorts of things estimated Pujols’ first game 3 homer to have gone 423 feet. My guess would have been closer to 600. Ball was CRUSHED.

Game 5, bet 130 on Rangers to win 100.
Result: Won $100
Running Total: +$115 (with $360 hedge still at risk)

Game 6, leaning towards betting $150 on Rangers to win 165. This would leave me at one of the following two places:

Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $165 (game 6 bet) + $115 (running total) = 480

Cardinals win: -$35 running total (with $360 hedge still at risk) and put $300 play on Rangers in Game 7

Assuming Cardinals do win Game 6, my Game 7 outcomes would be:

Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $270 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 435

Cardinals win: $1260 (Vegas bet) - $360 (series hedge) - $300 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 565

Unless the odds spin completely against me, I should be guaranteed at least a $435 payday which is slightly better than what I would have gotten had I hedged from the beginning.

My only regret is the midseries hedge. Once I decided to go game-to-game, I should have held the fort.

In the end, that decision will cost me a few dollars, but overall, this has been a great learning experience and a solid return on my $10 investment.