NFL Mock Draft - 1st Round

Coming into the 2008 Draft, there were five players considered to be head and shoulders above the rest - Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Glenn Dorsey, and Darren McFadden. It was clear by about February 15th that these five would be selected in some order with the top five picks.

In this respect, this year's draft could not be more different. There are at least eight players that warrant consideration for this year's top pick. If there was ever a good year to finish 0-16, this was not it. The Lions have their work cut out for them. On the bright side, Matt Millen will not be in the War Room this year. We call that addition by subtraction.

As you'll see throughout the mock, this draft does have a number of similarities to last year's draft in other areas.

Note, this mock draft represents what I think will happen, not what I would do.

Round One

1. Detroit: Matthew Stafford, Georgia, QB - The Lions need a franchise quarterback to build around as it has become clear Drew Stanton and Dan Orlovsky are not capable. Although Stafford reminds me more of Jeff George than John Elway, he probably has the most upside of any quarterback in the draft. Personally, I think Mark Sanchez will be the better pro, but I cannot fault the Lions if they go in this direction. Rookie Head Coach Jim Schwartz needs to decide which guy to entrust with his future.

2. St. Louis: Andre Smith, Alabama, OT - I'm sure rookie Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo would love to add a defensive end to couple with last year's first rounder, Chris Long, but none warrants consideration this high in the draft. Smith can be a solid bookend for the next twelve years.

3. Kansas City: Eugene Monroe, Virginia, OT - Rookie GM Scott Pioli has long been a believer in solidifying the O and D-lines before all else. Monroe would fit in nicely next to the Chiefs' 2008 first rounder, his college teammate, Branden Albert.

4. Seattle: Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech, WR - For a team that has fallen victim to wide receiver plague for the last few years, Crabtree is the perfect remedy.

5. Cleveland: Michael Jenkins, Ohio State, CB - Mangini believes in building his teams around defense (see NY Jets Offseason - 2008). Jenkins has shutdown corner skills and would be a nice place to start.

6. Cincinnati: Aaron Curry, Wake Forest, LB - Curry and 2008 first rounder Keith Rivers would provide stability in the linebacking corps for years to come. Most importantly, there are no character issues with Curry.

7. Oakland: Jeremy Maclin, Missouri, WR - The Raiders lack a deep threat in the passing game. Maclin can fill that void.

8. Jacksonville: Michael Oher, Ole Miss, OT - The Jags lost two starters on their offensive line in Week 1 and never recovered. Oher would be their best lineman from Day 1 and figures to be a fixture in the league for many years.

9. Green Bay: B.J. Raji, Boston College, DT - After trading DT Corey Williams in the offseason, the Packers struggled mightily defending the run. Raji dominated the Senior Bowl and has seen his stock soar in recent weeks.

10. San Francisco: Mark Sanchez, USC, QB - A dream scenario for the Niners, they would snatch Sanchez in about 0.00002 seconds if he slips this far. He's a California native who starred at USC and would be the long-term answer at the quarterback position.

11. Buffalo: Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State, TE - Pettigrew is the most complete tight end in the class and would provide a nice target for emerging QB Trent Edwards.

12. Denver: Peria Jerry, Ole Miss, DT - The Broncos struggled to stop the run again last season. Stop me if you've heard this before.

13. Washington: Rey Maualuga, USC, LB - Owner Dan Snyder loves the big name, and London Fletcher can't play forever, can he?

14. New Orleans: Sean Smith, Utah, CB - Smith has great size, and the Saints figure to focus on the defensive secondary early and often on Draft Day. Smith had a great Sugar Bowl which was played in... (drum roll)... New Orleans.

15. Houston: Brian Orakpo, Texas, DE - The Texans would do back flips if the Texas product slid this far. He reminds me of Vernon Gholston (read: major bust possibilities), but he would be a great value here. Houston has taken a defensive lineman with three of their last four first round picks.

16. San Diego: Aaron Maybin, Penn State, DE/LB - The Chargers desperately missed DE / LB Shawne Merriman, and Maybin has a similar skill set.

17. New York Jets: Brian Cushing, USC, LB - Rookie head coach Rex Ryan wants to develop the most physical team in football. Cushing would be a nice addition to a defense that faded down the stretch.

18. Chicago: Percy Harvin, Florida, WR - Matt Forte led the Bears in receptions last season (63). Taking that kind of pounding year in and year out will lead to a short career. Harvin, ever the brittle superstar, has Devin Hester-esque game changing ability.

19. Tampa Bay: Everette Brown, Florida State, DE - The Bucs would be another team that would be ecstatic if this exact draft scenario unfolded. Brown, a local product, would work with 2007 first rounder, Gaines Adams.

20. Detroit (from Dallas): Jason Smith, Baylor, OT - Smith has top 10 talent but could slip because of team needs. Matt Stafford won't have to wait long for a new best friend - 19 picks to be exact.

21. Philadelphia: Alex Mack, California, C - Jamaal Jackson struggled at times this season, and Mack is clearly the cream of a solid center crop.

22. Minnesota: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, WR - No matter who is playing quarterback, the Vikes need someone to pair with Bernard Berrian to help take the focus off Adrian Peterson.

23. New England: Jame Laurinaitis, Ohio State, LB - Is he Andy Katzenmoyer reincarnate? I don't think so, but the similarities certainly exist.

24. Atlanta: Shawn Nelson, Southern Mississippi, TE - The Falcons figure to add some offensive weapons to help QB Matt Ryan to develop. Nelson offers something the team lacked this season, a pass catching threat at the tight end position.

25. Miami: D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt, CB - Cornerbacks figure to go off the board...

26. Baltimore: Vontae Davis, Illinois, CB - ...with the next few picks...

27. Indianapolis: Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest, CB - ... but I have no idea what order it will happen.

28. Philadelphia (from Carolina): Chris Wells, Ohio State, RB - Wells would offer the bruising style to complement the home run hitting Brian Westbrook.

29. New York Giants: Clay Matthews, USC, LB - Pressure the QB.. Pressure the QB.. Pressure the QB...

30. Tennessee: Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina, WR - The defense was great. The running game was great. The passing game stunk. The Titans need to address this during the offseason.

31. Arizona: Knowshon Moreno, Georgia, RB - Moreno failed to live up to expectations this season and will slip further than he should. He could win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award if this scenario unfolds.

32. Pittsburgh: Max Unger, Oregon, C - The Steelers were solid across the board. I'm nitpicking, but the line could use some bolstering.


Mock Notes

**I think the NFL should revisit the draft order creation process. Why should the Chargers, a team that made the playoffs, pick eight spots ahead of the Patriots?

**The Lions have three of the top 33 picks. If they can nab a defensive tackle like Sen'Derrick Marks at the top of round two along with Stafford and Smith in round one, the foundation upon which to build could be in place.

**The owners of the first five picks all have new head coaches. It will be interesting to see how much power each wields.

**LSU OG Herman Johnson weighed 15lbs, 14oz. at birth, a Louisiana state record. At the Senior Bowl, he stood 6"7' and weighed in at 382lbs. Let those numbers sink in for a second.

**Liberty RB Rashad Jennings tops the list of "Just Missed." I tried working him into the first round so it would be two years in a row that a player transferred from Pitt and got drafted in the first round (Joe Flacco), but it did not work out.

**Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson did not make his way into the first round. He won't experience a Quentin Moses-esque (preseason top five overall; ended up being first pick of third round) fall from grace, but look out below.

**This will be the first time in 14 years that no member of the Miami Hurricanes will be picked in round one.

The Cubs' Lineup

Banter-favorite, Buster Olney recently posed a question to his readers: How would you construct the Cubs' lineup?

Olney's Lineup

2B Mike Fontenot, L
1B Derrek Lee, R
RF Milton Bradley, S
3B Aramis Ramirez, R
CF Kosuke Fukudome, L
LF Alfonso Soriano, R
C Geovany Soto, RS
S Ryan Theriot, R

Banter's Lineup (vs. RHP / LHP)

The signing of Milton Bradley gives Lou Piniella the flexibility to do a number of different things. However, he would be best suited using these two lineups.

2B Fontenot / SS Theriot
3B Ramirez / LF Soriano
1B Lee
RF Bradley
LF Soriano / 3B Ramirez
C Soto
CF Fukudome
SS Theriot / 2B Fontenot

Rationale

*If after all the money the Cubs have spent and all the deals they have made this offseason Kosuke Fukodome finds himself in a major RBI spot in the batting order, they will have accomplished nothing.

After July 31 (excluding playoffs), Fukodome's stats looked like this:

AB: 128
HR: 2
RBI: 18
R: 12
SB: 2

His post-All Star Break splits were .217/.314/.326 also known as Willie Bloomquist territory.

As bad as that was, his postseason was worse. He mustered only a single in ten at bats while whiffing four times.

*Sure, the lefty-righty alternation can be an advantage, but the Cubs right handed batters handle right handed pitching relatively well aside from Soriano.

Soto hit 18 of 23 home runs off righties.

*Why alternate Soriano and Ramirez in the 2 / 5 holes against? Check out the numbers:

Soriano's splits against LHP / RHP last season: 351; .404; .710 / .252; .319; .460.

Ramirez's splits against LHP / RHP last season: .239; .333; .388 / 305; .394; .560.

Someone Please Sign Adam Dunn Already...

... and let that someone's name rhyme with Nomar Shminaya.



The Basic Fact


As of this post, Adam Dunn remains a free agent.


The Good

*Adam Dunn, the Texas-bred "Big Donkey" stands 6 feet 6 inches tall. He is only 29-years old.

*His power cannot be questioned as he has five consecutive 40 home run seasons.

*His career Adjusted OPS is 130. Among players under 30, he ranks sixth behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Mark Teixeira and Jason Bay.

*He ranks third among active major leaguers under 30 in career on-base percentage behind Pujols and Wright.

*He has the fourth most home runs in the first eight years of a career. See below where he ranks with three all-time greats:

Rk Player HR-BB

1: Ralph Kiner 329-870

2: Albert Pujols 319-696

3: Eddie Matthews 299-726

4. Adam Dunn 278-797

*According to reports, he is considering taking a one-year offer so he can test the market again next season, making him a virtual risk-free investment.


The Awful

*Dunn's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Whether in left field or at first base, he's a statue and will cost his team approximately a dozen runs per season.

*He strikes out way too much.

*He has a laissez faire attitude. Last season, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi questioned Dunn's passion for the game.


The Guess

Dunn has had the misfortune of playing in Pujols' shadow since the two were rookies in 2001. He does not measure up to Fat Albert in any regard. However, he will come at a steep discount and sometime in the near future, someone will realize the good outweighs the awful.

From here, the Mets and Omar Minaya seem like the perfect match.

Separated at Birth?

Former North Carolina State basketball coaches, Jim Valvano and Kay Yow.

Obviously, this has nothing to do with looks and everything to do with the legacies these two left behind.

Separated at birth?

LA Lakers' C Andrew Bynum and actor Tracy Morgan

Sports Pet Peeve and Some Links

--Sports Pet Peeve #38: The Big 10 calling itself the Big 10. Has anyone figured out why the Big 10 hasn't changed its name to the Big 11? There are 11 teams in the conference; the conference logo (see below) has the shadow of an "11." You promote yourselves as institutions of higher learning. Do the intelligent thing here.



--Great non-football related parody.

--Martin Havlat, you just made a lot of friends.

--Predictably, Ben Sheets and Oliver Perez are inching towards the Rangers and Mets, respectively.

--Pretty cool way to measure the level of dominance by pitchers.

Separated at Birth?

Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia and a bald eagle

In the Eyes of the Mets: Lowe vs. Perez

Background

Coming into the offseason, the New York Mets had a gaping hole in the bullpen and the middle of their rotation. GM Omar Minaya addressed the bullpen early by signing Fransisco Rodriguez away from the LA Angels and acquiring J.J. Putz from the Seattle Mariners. Incidentally, Minaya may have also improved his bullpen by trading away Aaron Heilman in the Putz deal, but we will save that topic for another day.

Rodriguez, as even casual fans know, set the Major League record for saves in a season (62) last year. Unfortunately for the Mets, Rodriguez was labeled as a Type A free agent meaning the team that signed him - in this case the Mets - would have to surrender its first round pick (assuming the signing team's first round pick fell outside the top 15 picks). In addition, the team "losing" the Type A free agent receives a supplemental first round pick. Because of this, the Mets' first pick will be (approximately) number 66 overall.

Lowe vs. Perez

After strengthening the 'pen, the Mets honed in on Type A free agent Derek Lowe of the LA Dodgers and their own Type A free agent, Oliver Perez. Who should the Mets have signed?

Assuming that the Mets could only afford either Lowe or Perez, it would seem to me that Lowe should have been the choice.

As mentioned above, by signing K-Rod, the Mets were forced to surrender their first round selection. So, if they would have signed another Type A free agent, they would have "only" sacrificed their second round choice. Let's assume this Type A free was Derek Lowe. The Dodgers would receive pick 66 and a supplemental first rounder from the league. Using logic from above, the Mets would not have been able to re-sign Perez.

The team signing Perez would then owe the Mets its first round pick (or second round pick if it picked outside the top 15). For argument's sake, let's assume the Atlanta Braves who actually signed Lowe decided to sign Perez with all their excess cash. The Mets would receive the Braves' second round pick (approximately number 50 overall) and a supplemental first round (approximately number 41).

Let's play a quick game of multiple choice. Which package would you rather have:

A) Oliver Perez and pick 66; or
B) Derek Lowe, pick 41 and pick 50 (with the possibility that this pick could end up being a late first rounder if a team picking outside the top 15 - possibly the Diamondbacks or Dodgers - signed Perez).

The Mets' farm system can be described as mediocre at best. (Keith Law ranked their system 17th best in the Majors, but that seems awfully kind.) Letting Perez sign elsewhere would have been an intelligent way to recoup some draft picks. Now, Omar Minaya's hand is somewhat forced. He will probably have to re-sign Perez, because without him, the rotation would be in shambles.

When trying to replenish a farm system that has been somewhat depleted by trades, it would have made more sense to pursue Lowe more aggresively rather than re-signing Perez.

Rejoice, Rejoice!

As predicted, the NJIT Highlanders broke their 51-game losing streak against the Bryant Bulldogs. Good for them.

See the full story here or here.

Notes from the World's Most Famous Arena

I went to an Islander-Ranger game with my father a few weeks back at Madison Square Garden and was struck by four things:

1. Ranger fans still chant "Potvin sucks" in reference to Denis Potvin, the hated Islander defenseman who retired 21(!) years ago. I think it's about time to rally around something else.


2. There's no chance the Islanders lose the race for worst record in the NHL.


3. The City of Philadelphia's Tourism Agency has put an enormous advertisement on the west side of the Garden (example 4,581 the US is in a Recession). How desperate can the Garden be for revenue that they allow the home of two despised rivals - 76ers and Flyers - to advertise on the outside of it?


4. During each intermission, two kids were selected to ride on the zamboni. As cool as that must have been for those kids, it was equally uncool, and borderline pathetic, that they they were forced to wear helmets. Were these kids a threat to jump off the zamboni without notice? Have there been zamboni catastrophes before that I don't know about? Are kids in danger of having objects heaved at them? Are these kids' parents petrified their babies will be tossed off the zamboni during a hairpin turn? So then, why do these kids need helmets? This is another reason we, as a country, can be perceived as being weak. There is zero chance kids in Russia or any other badass country would make kids riding on zambonies wear helmets. And, what's next? Kids on playgrounds wearing helmets? Kids on Ferris Wheels? Where does it end? So many questions, no good answers.

Separated at Birth?

World's Most Jacked, Man Ronnie Coleman and the NFL's Most Jacked Player, Washington Redskin Andre Carter.

NFL Memos and Championship Game Observations

Memo

Attn: Kurt Warner

Please take the glove off your throwing hand. You play all your home games in 80 degree weather. Man up.

Signed,

All NFL Fans

++++++++++++++++

Memo

Attn: All Defensive Backs not named Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu

When returning an interception or fumble, rules permit you to protect the ball with two hands and/or to run out of bounds.

Signed,

All NFL Fans

++++++++++++++++

Memo

Attn: Coaching Staff of the Pittsburgh Steelers

Save yourselves the countless hours of video watching. If you want to stop the Cardinals offense and win the Super Bowl, triple team Larry Fitzgerald. It's not complicated.

Signed,

NFL Fans with a gambling interest in the Super Bowl

++++++++++++++++

Other Thoughts and Observations

--Kevin Curtis is incredibly underrated.

--Three bone-headed moves (among others) by Andy Reid during yesterday's NFC Championship Game that warrant mentioning:

1. With 1:48 left in the first half and his Eagles facing 3rd and 14 from their own 36, Reid called timeout. Why? No sane individual can figure that out. The chance of converting from that distance on third down are slim (approximately 13%). What happened? The Eagles failed to convert on third down and were forced to punt. The Cardinals marched down the field and kicked a 49-yard field goal as time expired.


2. After scoring a touchdown to cut their deficit to 24-12 with 4:08 left in the third quarter, the Cardinals committed two penalties on the extra point. The Eagles were well aware they would eventually need a two-point conversion. Why not send the offense back on the field to go for two from the 1-yard line instead of waiting for later in the game when they have to try from the 2-yard line?


3. After cutting the lead to 24-19 with 0:49 left in the third quarter, Reid chose not to go for two. Why? Again, only Andy knows. To add insult to stupidity, David Akers missed the extra point. Obviously, Reid could not have possibly imagined a missed PAT, but it should never have gotten to that point.

--Andy Reid's Offseason Priorities

1. Get a clue how to manage the clock paying special attention to the last two minutes of each half.


2. Learn when to go for two.


3. Talk to your kids. / Be a better parent.


4. Eat less. / Exercise.

Don Cheadle

I'm not much of a pop culture guy but how far has Don Cheadle's career fallen? A few years ago he was nominated for Best Actor in Hotel Rwanada. Now, he's starring in Hotel for Dogs.

Who is Cheadle's athletic equivalent? I'd vote for Shaun Alexander.

Both peaked in 2005. Cheadle nominated for Best Actor. Alexander won NFL MVP.

Both seem like standup guys. Cheadle does charity work for the people of Darfur. Alexander has his own charity (The Shaun Alexander Foundation).

Both were put in situations to succeed but struggled when depended upon to perform without a supporting cast.

Both have completely fallen off the map (of relevancy) in 2009.

It's a shame.

Championship Weekend Picks

Cardinals +4: Arizona has been great at home this season (7-2), and I trust Kurt Warner more than Donovan McNabb at this point.

Ravens +6.5: Has a playoff game ever ended with a score of 2-0? The Steelers played the NFL's only 11-10 game. Maybe they can pull this one off as well.


Playoff Record: 5-3

NFL Early Entries

Now that the deadline has passed for college players to declare for the NFL Draft, let's assess which players made the best and the worst decisions.


Best Decisions to Leave Early

Donald Brown, RB, UConn: Brown (aka UConn's entire offense) was abused this season as he carried the ball 367 times in 13 games. To put that into perspective, only one running back in the NFL had more carries (Michael Turner - 373). Had Brown stayed in school, he would have been asked to shoulder a similar load. The shelf life of a running back is only so long.

With a solid showing at the combine, Brown could be a second round pick.

Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa: Greene, who sat out the entire 2007 season, came out of nowhere to lead the Hawkeyes. He was the only player in the nation to rush for at least 100 yards in every game this season. His stock will never be higher.

Greene too could hear his name called in the second round.

Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Quite simply, Davis mailed it in this year; for much of the season, it looked like he was playing not to get hurt. He possesses the physical skills to be a shutdown corner at the next level. Can he stay motivated? Ironically, the same question was asked about his big brother, Vernon.

Davis should come off the board in the middle of the first round.

Sean Smith, CB, Utah: Smith has great size for a defensive back (6'3") and played the best game of his career in the Sugar Bowl. Like Greene, his stock cannot go much higher.

Smith could be selected late in round one.


Worst Decisions to Leave Early

Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: No one argues with the athletic ability, but Harvin needs to prove he can stay healthy. With all key starters returning next season, he would have had a chance to crack the top 10 next season.

Harvin will be drafted in the mid-late first round.

Jeremy Childs, WR, Boise State: Childs led the Broncos in receptions and receiving yards. He was clearly QB Kellen Moore's go-to target. Another year working with Moore would have done wonders for Childs.

Childs figures to be a fifth or sixth round selection.

P.J. Hill, RB, Wisconsin: Hill picked a terrible year to declare for the draft. There are at least ten better prospects at the position including six other underclassmen. His performance this season failed to live up to expectations.

Hill may not get picked until late on Day 2.


To Be Determined

Glen Coffee, RB, Alabama: Coffee's is a curious one. The Crimson Tide lost bookend OT Andre Smith, but figure to be a National Title contender from Opening Day (not the case this past season). It seems like there is more to this story than meets the eye.

Coffee should go early on Day 2.