Update Post

It’s been a while since I posted / did anything blog related.  Here are some quick updates and thoughts:

-I purchased two domains (FireSandy.com and FireSandyAlderson.com) shortly after the Bartolo Colon signing. Not sure what I will do with them but for now, they will forward traffic straight to The Banter.

-Over the last month, I must have heard a dozen people (Bill Simmons of Grantland and Drew Magary of Deadspin being two of them) say something along the lines of: “I hate fantasy football. It’s so frustrating, and I never win. I’m definitely going to quit.”

It's an extremely dumb argument.

Only one out of 12 teams can win fantasy football every year, just like only one of 32 teams can win the Super Bowl but no one - at least no one outside of Cleveland and Buffalo - says they are going to quit watching football because their team never wins.

Quit your whining.

-Jerry Crasnick of ESPN had this to say about Greg Maddux, “For a guy with a CPA's demeanor, he has a sense of humor that a 12-year-old would envy. Maddux is a master of strategically timed nose picking, sidling up to an unsuspecting rookie in the shower and urinating on the kid's leg.”

After pledging a fraternity in college and realizing how dumb I was, I can say with 100% certainty that if Maddux or anyone else every peed on my leg, they would be punched in the face.

-LA Dodgers GM Ned Coletti had this to say about Maddux, “He used to light guys' shoes on fire all the time. If somebody had a hot foot, 10 to 1 it was Greg who lit it."

This again highlights that Coletti has no idea how to use numbers. Saying someone is 10-1 to win something means he is much more likely not to have been the culprit.

Anyone that thinks it’s a good idea to give Coletti a blank checkbook to let him run a franchise is someone that I would love as an employer. Magic, you hiring?

-I will try to have a 2013 football wagering summary posted sometime soon. Overall, it was a positive year so can't complain too much but I'll get the official numbers on here.

New York Mets: 2013-14 Offseason Plan

I hate when people complain but don't offer an alternative; so, allow me to proactively map out a plan for Sandy Alderson to follow the rest of the offseason because I think he's done a terrible job thus far this winter.

I’ve made similar attempts in the past - see here and here and here- although there’s no proof that Sandy read anything more than the first suggestion in 2011.

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Allow me to vent for a minute.

It makes no sense that the Mets wouldn't be in on Doug Fister, Dexter Fowler, or even Michael Choice. Admittedly, not every team is going to give Sandy the opportunity to match or even better an offer that they have on the table.  However, it's his job to find out which players are available in the first place.

It makes even less sense to sign Chris Young to a one-year, $7m+ deal. There’s very little upside as this deal seems to be an overpay and there’s no team option attached to it (to my knowledge). If he performs, he’ll leave. If not, he’ll be overpaid. I would not have made this move, instead leaving Juan Lagares to patrol centerfield for 8% of the cost.

I understand Sandy is likely under some type of payroll limitations, and just based on what I’m reading, I used a $95m budget.

[Side note: the Wilpons should consider selling this team if that’s all they can afford to spend. They are in the largest market in the country (world?) and get outspent by half the league. What a joke.]

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Here are the moves I’d make:

1-TRAID Ike Davis, Brandon Nimmo, and Gavin Cecchini for Ryan Braun. Ryan Braun is owed over $100m over the next six seasons ($11m in 2014, $13m in 2015, $20m a season from 2016-19), a luxury Milwaukee cannot afford especially after embarrassing both himself and the team with his horrendous handling of the PED suspension. The Brewers are likely not going to compete for a playoff spot in the next few years. They have arguably one of the three worst farm systems in baseball. They surrendered their 2013 first rounder in exchange for signing Kyle Lohse. This deal infuses the system with two former first rounders and rids them of the financial obligation of paying Braun; plus, Davis addresses a huge hole at first base. Is this trade crazy? It might be but it at least has to be in the realm of possibility. This deal alone turns the offseason into a major win.

2-Sign Curtis Granderson to a 3 year, $45m deal. The Mets had one of the most boring, frustrating offenses in baseball last season. Add Granderson to lineup that features David Wright and Braun, and bam! Excitement. And power. I’ll get to the lineup in a bit, but a 2-3-4 of Wright, Braun, and Granderson would be a joy to watch.

3-Sign Corey Hart to a 2 year, $16m deal. With Ike gone, we need a first baseman. I considered a platoon of Josh Satin and Lucas Duda for a minute but then again remembered I was talking about Lucas Duda and Josh Satin and changed course. In all seriousness, I wouldn’t hate that platoon because Satin rakes against lefties, and Duda rips righties, but I think Hart’s on-base skills would better complete this lineup. Satin goes back to the minors while Duda becomes a bat off the bench and spot starter against righties.

4-Sign Andrew Bailey to a 1 year, $2m deal with team option for a second year. Bailey was non-tendered by the Red Sox, but he’s had success in the past and he’s a local kid. It’s a low-risk deal with high upside. If he shows he’s healthy but the Mets struggle, he can be dealt before the deadline. No brainer.

5-TRAID for Arizona SS Chris Owings. I fell in love with Owings at this year’s Futures Game. He’s a complete player, and although his numbers were likely inflated by some friendly home parks the last few seasons in the minors, he’s a huge upgrade from Ruben Tejada. The D-backs have a plethora of shortstops. Would a deal of Michael Fulmer and Cesar Puello get the job done? Again, you need to ask the question to find out.

6-TRAID Daniel Murphy for Tim Collins. The Royals have a gaping hole at second base, a desire to get some value for the about-to-become-more-expansive-than-a-mid-market-team-would-like-middle-reliever, and their GM is one of the worst in baseball. Everyone else takes advantage of Dayton Moore. Why can’t the Mets? In a dream scenario, I would add a couple prospects to this deal and target Kyle Zimmer (my pitching man-crush) but even Moore can’t be fooled into that kind of deal. Murphy was actually a top-10 second baseman offensively last season and can swing the stick. He’s just too expensive for the Mets (cheap Wilpons) who would be better served spending money elsewhere. Collins will cost about a million bucks this year, his first in arbitration and although diminutive in stature can be effective and give Terry Collins another lefty in the pen.

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By my math, that would leave Sandy with about $8.5m more to spend as he sees fit (assuming $95m payroll).

Maybe he can give Daniel Hudson a call to see what it would take to get him under contract with an incentive-laden deal in the hopes he can contribute on 2015 and beyond.

Maybe he can frontload Granderson’s deal to a) incentivize him to sign, and b) offer some relief in the last year of the deal to offset Braun’s salary bump.

Maybe he can trade for Chase Headley in the offseason and use the money to sign him long-term. I love the idea of trading for Headley right now as his value is about as low as it could be, but with Chris Young playing left field and Wright at third, there’s not much room for him. An alternative would be not signing Hart and letting Headley play first.

Maybe he can make a deal for Asdrubal Cabrera to play second base, and sign him long-term.

For those that have asked if I think signing Robinson Cano to a monster deal would be worth it: I don’t think it is….assuming the payroll limitations, that is. If the Wilpons bump the budget up by $25m, of course, I would be in favor of signing Cano. And I will continue to beat this horse, but a payroll of $120m would have been the 10^th highest in baseball last year so it’s not a ridiculous thought that the budget could be increased to that number.

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These moves would leave the Mets with this potential lineup:

1 Owings 6

2 Wright 5

3 Braun 9

4 Granderson 7

5 Hart 3

6 Travis d'Arnaud 2

7 C. Young 8

8 E. Young / Wilmer Flores 4

That is a top 10 offense, and the idea of adding Cano in place of the EY / Flores combo has me downright giddy.

Mix in a token backup catcher like Anthony Recker, Duda, and Lagares and you have your bench.

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Now, the staff.

Unbelievably, it’s taken me until here to even mention Matt Harvey’s name. His injury was the biggest groin kick we’ve received as Mets fans since Carlos Beltran was frozen by Adam Wainwright to end the 2006 NLCS. It was devastating. However, I have every reason to believe the Mets can still compete in 2014 for a playoff spot and seriously contend for the World Series in 2015 when Harvey’s back.

The rotation this year could be:

1 Jon Niese

2 Zack Wheeler

3 Dillon Gee

4 Noah Syndergaard

5 Rafael Montero

Yes, I am a proponent of calling up Syndergaard and Montero and letting them learn under pressure.

When Harvey’s back in 2015, he jumps to the top of the rotation and everyone gets bumped a peg.

The bullpen: Bobby Parnell, Bailey, Collins, Jennry Mejia, Vic Black, Josh Edgin, Gonzalez Germen, and Jeurys Familia.

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Tell me where you would improve my plan or why I’m being crazy.

Also, these are the salary assumptions I am making:

College Football Picks: Week 13

My losses just keep getting more brutal by the week. I lost my PoW on the Auburn 4th-and-80 Hail Mary. Yeesh! Thakfully, it was still a positive week.

Northern Illinois -2: 3.3 units to win 3.0 units

UCLA +3: 2.4 units to win 2.0 units

Late Addition:
Coastal Carolina +34.5: 3.3 units to win 3.0 units

There's a good chance I add a few more games before Saturday is done so check back.

Upset of the Week- Michigan +6: 2.2 units to win 2.0 units

Pick of the Week- Old Dominion +17.5: 4.4 units to win 4.0 units

Overall Record: 30-25-1 (+27.0 units)

Upset: 3-8

PoW: 6-4-1

PoY: 1-0

NFL Picks: Week 12

Why do I ever trust the Jets? What a mistake.

Bears Pk: 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Colts +1: 5.0 units to win 5.5 units


Check back Sunday for more action

Overall Record: 19-24 (-21.7 units; futures not included)

 

Pending Futures

Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units

Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units - WIN

Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units

Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units

Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units - WIN

EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units

College Football Picks: Week 12

I complained last week about a boring Week 10. Well, I'll take boring over terrible any week of the year. Brutal picking by me. I need to step up the game here coming down the stretch.

Georgia ML / Nebraska ML / Stanford ML: 1.0 unit to win 10.0 units
Houston Pk: 1.0 unit to win 5.6 units
Oklahoma State -3: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units

Upset of the Week- Duke +3.5: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units

Pick of the Week- Georgia +3: 2.7 units to win 2.5 units

Overall Record: 28-22-1 (+26.7 units)

Upset: 2-8

PoW: 6-3-1

PoY: 1-0

NFL Picks: Week 11

HOLY SMOKESHOW, did I get crushed last week! Brutal week through and through. The only good thing to come out of the week was the Lions claiming sole possession of first place in the NFC North. Besides that, let's just forget Week 10 ever happened.

Jets Pk: 4.0 units to win 4.2 units


Check back Sunday for more action

Overall Record: 19-26 (-17.7 units)

Pending Futures

Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units

Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units

Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units

Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units

Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units

NFL Picks: Week 10

I was a Bears upset away from a HUGE week, instead, it was just solid, 3-1 (+6.5 units). Inching towards even for the season.

Packers -1: 5.5 units to win 5.0 units
Rams/Colts Over 44: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Cowboys +7: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units
Colts Pk / OPEN / OPEN: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units


Check back before gametime on Sunday for other plays

Overall Record: 18-22 (-2.7 units)

Pending Futures

Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units

Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units

Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units

Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units

Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units

College Football Picks: Week 11

Boring Week 10 (1-1, -0.5 units) so let's try to spice things up this week with six ‘dogs.

Stanford +10: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

Wake Forest +35: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units

LSU +13: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units

Utah +7: 3.3 units to win 2.5 units

Late Addition:
Tulane +19 / UCLA +11.5 / Colts Pk: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units

Upset of the Week- Wyoming +9: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

Pick of the Week- Oklahoma +17: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units

Overall Record: 26-18-1 (+33.5 units)

Upset: 2-7

PoW: 6-2-1

PoY: 1-0

College Football Picks: Week 10

I went 1-2 last week and here comes another light week. Just haven't seen many opportunities lately.

Upset of the Week- Miami +21: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units

Pick of the Week- Oklahoma State -1.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

Overall Record: 26-18-1 (+34.0 units)

Upset: 2-6

PoW: 5-2-1

PoY: 1-0

NFL Picks: Week 9

Only took one game last week, but it was a winner thanks a monstrous fourth quarter in the Dallas-Detroit game (41 points in the fourth). This week, I'm looking to close out a couple of my three-team teasers - which would put me back in positive territory for the year - as well as ride the Pats.


Redskins Pk: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots -6.5: 5.8 units to win 5.0 units

Teaser- 49ers Pk (WIN Week 6) / Packers Pk (WIN Week 7) / Patriots +3.5: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units
Teaser- Packers Pk (WIN Week 7) / Seahawks (WIN Week 8) / Packers Pk: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units

Overall Record: 15-21 (-9.2 units)

 

Pending Futures

Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units

Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units

Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units

Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units

Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units

NFL Picks: Week 8

One yard in the Chiefs game was the difference between a winning week and the losing week. Those are the breaks though. Slow week for me here.


Dallas/Detroit Over 51: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

Teaser- 49ers Pk (WIN) / Packers Pk (WIN) / OPEN: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units
Teaser- Packers Pk (WIN) / Seahawks Pk / OPEN: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units

Overall Record: 14-21 (-12.0 units)

Pending Futures

Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units

Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units

Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units

Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units

Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units

College Football Picks: Week 9

I'm liking the way my picks of the week have performed, but my upset specials have been very lackluster. Another light week ahead.

NC State +32.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

Upset of the Week- Utah +6.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Vanderbilt +17.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units

Overall Record: 25-16-1 (+37.1 units)

Upset: 2-5

PoW: 5-1-1

PoY: 1-0

NFL Picks: Week 7

Only went 2-4 last week, but hit my two biggest plays to salvage a -1.1 unit week. I also lost a 3-team teaser because I tied one of the three games. A loss is a loss, I know, but that turned a winning week into a losing one.

Jaguars +7.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Packers -9.5: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Chiefs -6.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Bucs +7: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos/Colts Over 55.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Teaser- 49ers Pk (WIN) / Packers Pk / OPEN: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units
Teaser- Packers Pk / OPEN / OPEN: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units


Last week I loved the Niners at home to win outright (10 point favorites) but not necessarily to cover. This week, I love the Packers in the same exact situation at home against the Browns which is why I will have them as part of at least two - but more likely three or four by kickoff - separate 6.0 unit teasers. Note: I also like them to cover 10 too.

Overall Record: 12-18 (-8.6 units)

Pending Futures

Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units

Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units

Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units

Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units

Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units

College Football Picks: Week 8

Back to back brutal Saturday night primetime games. Two weeks ago it was the Ohio State defensive-touchdown-as-time-expired fiasco. This week it was Texas A&M and Ole Miss combining to score 41 points in the fourth quarter alone (after scoring a total of 38 through the first 45 minutes) causing me to push my Under 79 bet.

The rest of the slate was uneventful, really. Minor up week pushed me to +40 for the season.

 

PURE EMOTIONAL WAGER ALERT: 

   USC +3: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

Upset of the Week- Clemson +3: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - Wow! Talk about a slap in the face, Dabo. 3-point 'dogs at home? No respect. The Tigers better be motivated.

Pick of the Week- North Carolina +8.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - When was the last time we had an eventful Thursday night game? I'm talking must watch tv. Was Warrick Dunn still at Florida State? Sure seems like it. Maybe the Tar Heels can kick start some excitement on TNCFB.

Overall Record: 24-14-1 (+40.0 units)

Upset: 2-3

PoW: 4-1-1

PoY: 1-0

College Football Picks: Week 7

Thank God I only put a minimum wager on the Northwestern game or my TV would undoubtedly be broken right now. That BS last second defensive touchdown Ohio State scored to cover was the worst way I've ever lost a bet. Just brutal. That also turned a positive week into a negative one so I'm allowed to complain.

My Georgia State/Alabama wagers split but given the opportunity, I would make those bets 100 times out of 100. 

Back to work in a slow slate of games.

Texas A&M / Ole Miss Under 79: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Teaser- Oklahoma -1.5 / LSU +2.5 / Michigan +7.5: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units

Late Addition:
  Teaser- LSU +1.5 / Michigan +8.5 / 49ers Pk: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units

Upset of the Week- Arkansas 1H +3: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units

Pick of the Week- Rutgers +19

Overall Record: 22-12 (+38.4 units)

Upset: 2-2

PoW: 3-1-1

PoY: 1-0