Monday, March 29, 2010

MLB Over/Unders, Twitter-Style

Describing why each team will cover or fall short of their respective win total over/unders in 140 characters or less.

Arizona- 82.5: Under. Asking for a 13-game improvement from last season w/o a healthy Webb? Too ambitious. Not convinced EJax is a huge improvement over Scherzer.

Atlanta- 85.5: Over. Braves won 86 in '09. Dealt Vazquez but get full year of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. And oh yeah some guy named Heyward.

Baltimore- 74.5: Under. O's have won >74 games once in last 11 seasons. They play in baseball's toughest division and only added fluff (Millwood/Atkins/Tejada).

Boston- 94.5: Over. Sox have won 95 or more in 6 of last 7 years. A top-3 (Lester-Beckett-Lackey) that can compete with anyone in baseball. Bright skies ahead.

Chicago C- 82.5: Under. Pitching staff that scares/impresses no one. Depending too much on Soriano whose production has been in steady decline for three years.

Chicago W- 82.5: Under. Any time a team seriously considers batting Mark Kotsay or M Teahan third in the lineup, run for the hills. I do like their pitching though.

Cincinnati- 79.5: Over. My 2010 sleeper team. Harang and Arroyo in contract years. High hopes for Chapman. Love the heart of the lineup: Votto, Phillips, Bruce.

Cleveland- 74.5: Under. Won 65 in '09 despite having Cliff Lee for half the season. 1 of the 3 worst pitching staffs in baseball even if Carmona can bounce back.

Colorado- 84.5: Over. Won 92(!) games last season and still have best lineup in NL West. They lost no starters. Why does Vegas see 8 game drop off? Baffling line.

Detroit- 80.5: Over. Despite dealing Granderson, don't see 6-game decline from '09. Detroit has all the makings of a .500 club. This is a bet on Miggy Cabrera.

Florida- 80.5: Under. Did nothing to improve over winter. Johnson/Nolasco are nice but after that staff's a mess. Team could go into fire sale mode at any point.

Houston- 74.5: Over. Not a huge fan of the moves Ed Wade made this winter but you have to think it made the team 1 game better than last year (74 wins), no?

Kansas City- 71.5: Under. Death, taxes, and the ability to repeatedly bet against the Royals. Life's certainties indeed.

LA Angels- 83.5: Over. Won 97 last year. No way they are 14 games worse. Lost Lackey and Figgins but get full year of Kazmir. Vlad = Matsui. Best bet on board.

LA Dodgers- 85.5: Under. They might have Kemp & Manny, but Vicente Padilla will be their Opening Day starter. Plus, their owner(s) won't spend any money. No thanks.

Milwaukee- 80.5: Over. Have to think Doug Davis and Randy Wolf are a two-game upgrade over Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan. Healthy Weeks wouldn't hurt either.

Minnesota- 83.5: Over. Weird line after Twinkies won 86 regular season games in 09. To me additions of Hardy/Hudson/Thome+healthy Liriano outweighs loss of Nathan.

NY Mets- 80.5: Over. Injuries crushed any hope the Mets had last year. I expect Reyes in lineup by mid-April and Beltran back in May. Worried about pitching.

NY Yankees- 95.5: Over. Added Vazquez and Granderson without losing anything of substance. Age/injury are only concerns here after winning 103 + WS last year.

Oakland- 78.5: Over. This is a bet on Ben Sheets' health and could look very foolish in a few weeks. I think Kouz and development of young staff will help too.

Philadelphia- 92.5: Under. I have gone on record as saying this team got worse over the offseason and still believe it despite addition of Roy.

Pittsburgh- 69.5: Under. Vegas expecting an eight-game jump (62 wins in '09)? I can't name one area in which they improved at all except second base.

San Diego- 71.5: Over. Scrappy bunch that added enough small pieces to be respectable. If they keep Adrian & Bell, they should win more than last year's 75.

San Francisco- 81.5: Over. Another crazy line. Won 88 in '09. Can't see any reason they would be seven games worse now. Obviously need Linc/Cain to avoid injury bug.

Seattle- 83.5: Under. Got better this winter vastly overachieved last year. Need Lee/FHer to stay healthy. Where will offense come from?

St. Louis- 88.5: Over. My World Series pick. Love Pujols, Wainwright, and Carpenter. Huge expectations for Colby Rasmus too.

Tampa Bay- 89.5: Over. Starting pitching now runs five-deep. Line-up mashes. Need to compete to keep Carl Crawford happy.

Texas- 84.5: Under. Cannot trust the starting pitching especially when I see Rich Harden topping out at 88. Not good. Excited to see Justin Smoak though.

Toronto- 70.5: Under. Losing Roy Halladay damages the on-field product and off-field psyche tremendously. Plus, there are no cupcakes in AL East. bad combo.

Washington- 70.5: Over. Nats spent enough to win 75 games, which won't get them to the playoffs but will win this bet.

Five Best Bets

1. LA Angels O83.5
2. Rockies O84.5
3. NY Yankees O95.5
4. Royals U71.5
5. Cincinnati O79.5

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