Here are my preliminary rankings for 2011 along with some sleepers.
Catcher
1 Brian McCann, Atl
2 Victor Martinez, Det
3 Joe Mauer, Min
4 Buster Posey, SF*
5 Carlos Santana, Cle
6 Matt Wieters, Bal
7 Mike Napoli, Tex
8 Miguel Montero, Ari
9 Geo Soto, ChiC
10 Jorge Posada, NYY
11 Chris Ianetta, Col (Sleeper)
12 Russell Martin, NYY
13 Carlos Ruiz, Phi
14 Kurt Suzuki, Oak
15 Yadier Molina, StL
First Base
1 Miguel Cabrera, Det (Sleeper)
2 Albert Pujols, StL
3 Adrian Gonzalez, Bos
4 Joey Votto, Cin
5 Prince Fielder, Mil
6 Kevin Youkilis, Bos*
7 Adam Dunn, ChiW
8 Mark Teixeira, NYY
9 Ryan Howard, Phi
10 Kendry Morales, LAA
11 Buster Posey, SF*
12 Carlos Pena, ChiC
13 Justin Morneau, Min
14 Billy Butler, KC
15 Derrek Lee, Bal
16 Ike Davis, NYM
How is Miguel Cabrera a sleeper? If you get him at any spot below second overall, you are getting a steal.
Second Base
1 Robinson Cano, NYY
2 Dustin Pedroia, Bos
3 Chase Utley, Phi
4 Brandon Phillips, Cin
5 Ian Kinsler, Tex
6 Rickie Weeks, Mil
7 Dan Uggla, Atl
8 Gordon Beckham, ChiW*
9 Martin Prado, Atl*
10 Brian Roberts, Bal (Sleeper)
11 Ben Zobrist, TB*
12 Aaron Hill, Tor
13 Chone Figgins, Sea*
14 Kelly Johnson, Ari
15 Neil Walker, Pit
16 Howie Kendrick, LAA
17 Sean Rodriguez, TB
18 Omar Infante, Fla
Shortstop
1 Hanley Ramirez, Fla
2 Troy Tulowitzki, Col
3 Jose Reyes, NYM
4 Stephen Drew, Ari
5 Jimmy Rollins, Phi
6 Derek Jeter, NYY
7 Alexei Ramirez, ChiW
8 Starlin Castro, ChiC
9 Elvis Andrus, Tex
10 Rafael Furcal, LAD
11 Jason Bartlett, SD (Sleeper)
12 Ryan Therioy, StL
13 Erick Aybar, LAA
14 Reid Brignac, TB
Third Base
1 Evan Longoria, TB
2 Kevin Youkilis, Bos
3 Alex Rodriguez, NYY
4 Ryan Zimmerman, Was
5 David Wright, NYM
6 Adrian Beltre, Tex
7 Jose Bautista, Tor*
8 Mark Reynolds, Bal
9 Gordon Beckham, ChiW*
10 Martin Prado, Atl*
11 Aramis Ramirez, ChiC
12 Michael Young, Tex
13 Ian Stewart, Col (Sleeper)
14 Chone Figgins, Sea*
15 Scott Rolen, Cin
16 Casey McGehee, Mil
17 Pablo Sandoval, SF
18 Chase Headley, SD*
19 Pedro Alvarez, Pit
Outfield
1 Ryan Braun, Mil
2 Shin-Soo Choo, Cle
3 Josh Hamilton, Tex
4 Carl Crawford, TB
5 Matt Holliday, StL
6 Carlos Gonzalez, Col
7 Justin Upton, Ari
8 Ichiro Suzuki, Sea
9 Nelson Cruz, Tex
10 Matt Kemp, LAD
11 Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos
12 Jose Bautista, Tor*
13 Jay Bruce, Cin
14 Jayson Werth, Was
15 Jason Heyward, Atl
16 Shane Victorino, Phi
17 Ben Zobrist, TB*
18 Carlos Lee, Hou (Sleeper)
19 Nate McLouth, Pit
20 Andre Eithier, LAD
21 Alex Rios, ChiW
22 BJ Upton, TB
23 Mike Stanton, Fla
24 Hunter Pence, Hou
25 Colby Rasmus, StL
26 Nick Markakis, Bal (Sleeper)
27 Carlos Quentin, ChiW
28 Corey Hart, Mil
29 Jason Bay, NYM (Sleeper)
30 Curtis Granderson, NYY
31 Nick Swisher, NYY
32 Grady Sizemore, Cle
33 Adam Jones, Bal
34 Manny Ramirez, TB
35 Vernon Wells, LAA
36 Torii Hunter, LAA
37 Angel Pagan, NYM
38 Carlos Beltran, NYM
39 Alfonso Soriano, ChiC
40 Delmon Young, Min
41 Chris Young, Ari
42 Michael Bourn, Hou
43 Denard Span, Min
44 Austin Jackson, Det
45 Chase Headley, SD*
Starting Pitchers
1 Felix Hernandez, Sea
2 Ubaldo Jimenez, Col
3 Roy Halladay, Phi
4 Cliff Lee, Phi
5 Josh Johnson, Fla
6 Jered Weaver, LAA
7 Jon Lester, Bos
8 Adam Wainwright, StL
9 Zack Greinke, Mil
10 CC Sabathia, NYY
11 Tim Lincecum, SF
12 Justin Verlander, Det
13 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
14 Matt Cain, SF
15 Cole Hamels, Phi
16 Roy Oswalt, Phi
17 Tommy Hanson, Atl
18 Brett Anderson, Oak
19 Yovani Gallardo, Mil
20 Max Scherzer, Det (Sleeper)
21 Mat Latos, SD
22 Dan Haren, LAA
23 David Price, TB
24 Francisco Liriano, Min
25 Chris Carpenter, StL
26 John Danks, ChiW (Sleeper)
27 Matt Garza, ChiC
28 Chad Billingsley, LAD
29 Jonathan Sanchez, SF
30 Brandon Morrow, Tor
31 Jeremy Hellickson, TB
32 Ricky Nolasco, Fla
33 Josh Beckett, Bos
34 Madison Bumgarner, SF
35 Brian Matusz, Bal
36 Shaun Marcum, Mil
37 Edinson Volquez, Cin
38 Ricky Romero, Tor
39 Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
40 Wandy Rodriguez, Hou
41 Ted Lilly, LAD
42 Tim Hudson, Atl
43 James Shields, TB (Sleeper)
44 Clay Buchholz, Bos
45 Ryan Dempster, ChiC
46 John Lackey, Bos
47 Phil Hughes, NYY
48 Gavin Floyd, ChiW
49 Gio Gonzalez, Oak
50 Trevor Cahill, Oak
51 Edwin Jackson, ChiW
52 Ian Kennedy, Ari
53 Jaime Garcia, StL
54 Rick Porcello, Det
55 Johnny Cueto, Cin
56 Ervin Santana, LAA
57 Carlos Zambrano, ChiC
58 Javier Vazquez, Fla
59 C.J. Wilson, Tex
60 Johan Santana, NYM
Relief Pitchers
1 Mariano Rivera, NYY
2 Brian Wilson, SF
3 Joakim Soria, KC
4 Jose Valverde, Det (Sleeper)
5 Carlos Marmol, ChiC
6 Heath Bell, SD
7 Andrew Bailey, Oak
8 Neftali Feliz, Tex
9 Jonathan Broxton, LAD
10 Craig Kimbrel, Atl
11 Joe Nathan, Min
12 Francisco Cordero, Cin
13 Jonathan Papelbon, Bos
14 Ryan Franklin, StL
*= Eligible at multiple positions
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Ranking the Offseasons: AL (Updated)
I am on a business trip this week and will not be able to get to the NL recap until next week. Here is an updated look at the AL after the three-team (not officially, but in practice) Mike Napoli-Juan Rivera-Vernon Wells-Frank Francisco deal and the Johnny Damon / Manny Ramirez signings - which were predicted by the Banter weeks ago.
These rankings - which are scaled to the league - are based on what has happened to each team since the final out of the World Series was recorded, including free agent signings, releases, non-tenders, trades, and retirements.
1) Boston Red Sox
Retained: RP Andrew Miller, DH David Ortiz, C Jason Varitek
Added: RP Bobby Jenks, RP Dan Wheeler, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford
Lost: SP Casey Kelly, C Victor Martinez, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Felipe Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, OF Reymond Fuentes
Recap: Boston signed the premier outfielder on the market and acquired one of the game's best hitters without having to sacrifice anything from their Major League roster. They did lose Beltre to the Rangers but after acquiring Gonzalez had no place to start him without having to move Kevin Youkilis to the bench.
Grade for 2011: A+. AGonz and Crawford should be worth five wins each, and the Sox should be disappointed with anything less than 98 wins in '11.
Grade Beyond 2011: B+. Although they dealt highly-rated prospects (read: not sure things) for him, AGonz will only be 28 on Opening Day. Crawford will be 29. They could easily form the nucleus in Beantown for the next seven years. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
2) Chicago White Sox:
Retained: RP Matt Thornton, C AJ Pierzynski, C Ramon Castro, 1B Paul Konerko, 3B Omar Vizquel
Added: RP Jesse Crain, RP Will Ohman, DH Adam Dunn
Lost: SP Freddy Garcia, RP JJ Putz, RP Bobby Jenks, OF Andruw Jones
Recap: The South Siders solidified the bullpen (addition by subtraction with Jenks) and added a run-producing DH that routinely crushes 40 homers per season.
Grade for 2011: A-. This is my sleeper team in '11. If the pitching staff can hold up over the course of the season, they are the best value on the board to win the World Series (30:1).
Grade Beyond 2011: C. Giving Konerko a three-year deal (he'll be 35 on Opening Day) was a major risk despite his career year in 2010. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
3 (were 6)) Texas Rangers:
Retained: C Matt Treanor
Added: SP Brandon Webb, RP Arthur Rhodes, C Mike Napoli, C Yorvit Torrealba, 3B Adrian Beltre
Lost: SP Cliff Lee, SP Rich Harden, RP Frank Francisco, C Bengie Molina, OF Jeff Francouer, OF Vlad Guerrero
Recap: A really interesting winter for the American League champs. They basically swapped out Cliff Lee for Adrian Beltre, a reasonable move considering the money involved. I like the risk they took on Brandon Webb although the chances of it failing are at least eight times (very scientific) the chances that he returns to his Cy Young form.
Grade for 2011: A- (was B-). Lee is a workhorse and the responsibility of replacing him will need to be spread among either inexperienced arms (think Derek Holland) or aging vets (Webb). Replacing Vlad won't be so simple either as he OPS+'d 122. The Napoli deal was brilliant as they dealt a fungible, injury-riddled reliever for a power hitting catcher that can also DH or platoon at first.
Grade Beyond 2011: B+ (was B). If given the choice, I like the idea of giving huge money to a position player rather than a pitcher. Napoli will not cost much more than Francisco would have, but he will provide more value.
4 (were 3)) Oakland A's:
Retained: 2B Mark Ellis, OF Coco Crisp
Added: SP Rich Harden, SP Brandon McCarthy, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Grant Balfour, OF Josh Willingham, DH Hideki Matsui
Lost: SP Justin Duchscherer, SP Ben Sheets, 3B Eric Chavez, OF Travis Buck, DH Jack Cust
Recap: The underrated Willingham goes to his third team (Marlins, Nats) that plays in a pitcher's park. Despite this, he still mashes to the tune of a 265 BA / .267 OBP / .475 Slg triple-slash. However, injuries have been his nemesis as he has never played in more than 144 games and hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2007. Oakland also strengthened the 'pen with Balfour and Fuentes. The gambler in me loves the pair of lottery tickets they bought in Harden and McCarthy.
Grade for 2011: B+. Cust was the only player they lost that contributed positively in 2010.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. The A's did not lock themselves into any foolish long-term deals. They went to two-years on Balfour and Fuentes, but I much prefer them to the three-year Rafael Soriano deal. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
5 (were 4)) Detroit Tigers:
Retained: DH Magglio Ordonez, 3B Brandon Inge, 3B Jhonny Peralta
Added: SP Brad Penny, RP Joaquin Benoit, C Victor Martinez
Lost: SP Jeremy Bonderman, SP Armando Galarraga, C Gerald Laird, OF Johnny Damon
Recap: VMart will provide stability and switch-hitability in the middle of the lineup between Miguel Cabrera and Magglio. Benoit will be the bridge to closer Jose Valverde. Penny is a risk worth taking as a fifth starter.
Grade for 2011: B. In 2010, the Tigers' catchers triple-slashed an abysmal .223 / .294 / .330. Martinez's career numbers: .302 / .351 / .493.
Grade Beyond 2011: C. Giving Victor Martinez four years was risky since the catcher will be 32 on Opening Day - meaning a transition to DH will likely be in his near future. Not crazy about the three-year deal for Benoit, either. They are also docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
6 (were 5)) Baltimore Orioles :
Retained: RP Koji Uehara, SS Cesar Izturis
Added: RP Kevin Gregg, RP Jeremy Accardo, 1B Derrek Lee, 2B Brendan Harris, SS JJ Hardy, 3B Mark Reynolds
Lost: SP Kevin Millwood, RP Mark Hendrickson, 3B Miguel Tejada, 3B Ty Wigginton
Recap: Put simply, the O's got better during the offseason for the first time in a long time. Unfortunately, they reside in a division home to the league's two biggest spenders and the league's smartest spenders.
Grade for 2011: B-. Reynolds will strike out a ton, but he'll also provide a power threat.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. Baltimore didn't rock the boat. The deal for Lee is only for one year, and they resisted whatever urge they might have had to overpay an aging veteran with "name" value (see Atkins, Garrett or Tejada, Miguel).
7) Seattle Mariners:
Retained: SP Erik Bedard
Added: DH Jack Cust, C Miguel Olivo, 2B Adam Kennedy
Lost: SP Ryan Rowland-Smith, 1B Casey Kotchmann, 2B Jose Lopez, DH Russell Branyan
Recap: A pretty ho hum offseason in the Pacific Northwest. They improve slightly at DH. They could also catch a huge break if Milton Bradley's arrest qualifies as a breach of contract.
Grade for 2011: C+. Status quo.
Grade Beyond 2011: C+. They didn't do anything dumb (like signing Chone Figgins) or anything really dumb (like trading Kng Felix).
8) Minnesota Twins:
Retained: SP Carl Pavano, DH Jim Thome, OF Jason Kubel
Added: 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka, one first rounder, and five supplemental first rounders as a result of losing free agents
Lost: RP Jesse Crain, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Matt Guerrier, RP Jon Rauch, 2B Orlando Hudson
Recap: Losing four key performers out of the bullpen will hurt, but remember they get Joe Nathan back (hopefully). Nishioka will be a younger, cheaper, better version of Hudson.
Grade for 2011: C. Need to watch Nishioka before making any judgments.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. The draft picks really soften the blow of losing some key performers out of the 'pen.
9) New York Yankees:
Retained: RP Mariano Rivera, SS Derek Jeter
Added: RP Rafael Soriano, RP Pedro Feliciano, C Russell Martin
Lost: SP Andy Pettitte, SP Javier Vazquez, SP Dustin Moseley, RP Kerry Wood, RP Alfredo Aceves, 1B Lance Berkman, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Marcus Thames
Recap: The Yankees' offseason will be best known for what they didn't do: sign Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford. After missing on the big fish(es), GM Brian Cashman focused on solidifying a bullpen that was actually very good last season (3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) especially considering they played half their games in a bandbox. However, it cost them dearly - $30m for Rivera and $35m plus their first rounder for Soriano.
The Yanks also added Martin with the hope he could revive his career; he's only two years removed from a .280 BA / .385 OBP season, but it's rare to see a catcher bounce back once the inevitable decline begins.
Overall, there's not much to get excited about. They lost more talent than they acquired and both Jeter and Rivera are on the downswings of storied careers. With this roster they have right now and the lack of starting pitching depth, winning 95 games again this season will be a challenge
Grade for 2011: C-. Focus should have been on starting, not relief pitching.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. Despite talk of not wanting to sign a free agent that would require them to give up their first rounder, the Yanks signed Soriano and did just that.
10) Los Angeles Angels:
Retained: N/A
Added: RP Scott Downs, RP Hisanori Takahashi, OF Vernon Wells
Lost: DH Hideki Matsui, DH Juan Rivera, C Mike Napoli,
Recap: Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. The story of every offseason in recent memory for the Angels. I detailed all of their "near" misses and still haven't been able to explain the lack of success in obtaining talent. They tried to spice things up by acquiring Wells (sure to be a colossal disaster in the last two year of his deal) for the price it would have cost them to sign Adrian Beltre and re-sign Napoli. Confusing.
Grade for 2011: C- (was D+). Wells will be better than the combination of Napoli and Rivera in 2011, but this now locks Jeff Mathis into regular at bats (see also: ominous signs for your baseball team) preventing me from upgrading them further. Are Downs and Takahashi difference makers? At least they didn't lose any big names this year.
Grade Beyond 2011: D- (was C-). Taking on over $80m of the Wells contract is borderline ludicrous. Giving Takahashi a two year deal when he will be 36 on Opening Day makes little sense. Giving Downs a three-year deal when he will be 35 on Opening Day makes even less.
11) Cleveland Indians:
Retained: N/A
Added: SS Adam Everett, OF Austin Kearns, OF Travis Buck
Lost: N/A
Recap: Being a fan in Cleveland right now is not enviable. I actually have no idea how the Indians plan to improve this season or beyond. Their three "moves" are all short-term fixes with very limited upside. A really bad offseason for the Tribe considering they won 69 games last year. In my mind, they have three players to build around: Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, and Shin-Soo Choo (two missed a large chunk of the year with injury). They need help.
Grade for 2011: D. A head-scratching offseason. It's almost like they aren't trying. Do something, anything. Buy out Hafner. Sign an international free agent. Come on.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. No discernable effort was made to improve the team long-term either. Santana can't turn this ship around by himself.
12) Toronto Blue Jays:
Retained: RP Jason Frasor, C Jose Molina, 3B Edwin Encarnacion
Added: RP Octavio Dotel, RP Carlos Villanueva, RP Frank Francisco, DH Juan Rivera, 2B Brett Lawrie, OF Rajai Davis, OF Corey Patterson, four supplemental first rounders, one second rounder as a result of losing free agents
Lost: SP Shaun Marcum, RP Jeremy Accardo, RP Scott Downs, RP Kevin Gregg, C John Buck, C Miguel Olivo, 1B Lyle Overbay, OF Vernon Wells
Recap: Toronto's moves this offseason were made with 2012 in mind. If you need proof, look no further than the brilliant move to trade for Miguel Olivo and offer him arbitration knowing he would decline, giving them a supplemental first rounder when he signed with the Mariners (he was a Type B free agent). Unfortunately, that won't help at all this year.
Grade for 2011: D- (was D). They lost their catcher, their entire bullpen, and their number two starter. Not a winning combo. The Wells deal does not help the 2011 product as he would have been more productive than Francisco and Rivera combined).
Grade Beyond 2011: A+ (was B+). Riding themselves of the Wells contract was tremendous, saving the team over $80m. Lawrie plus picks should help immensely long-term.
13) Kansas City Royals:
Retained: 3B Wilson Betemit
Added: SP Jeff Francis, SP Jake Odorizzi, RP Jeremy Jeffress, SS Alcides Escobar, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Jeff Francouer, OF Lorenzo Cain
Lost: SP Zack Greinke, SP Gil Meche, SP Bruce Chen, SS Yuniesky Betancourt
Recap: They traded an established ace for four prospects (none of whom is considered "can't miss") and added two terrible outfielders. Hey, at least they brought back Wilson Betemit. Oh that's right, it's not 2002 (that whole list is pretty laughable right now).
Grade for 2011: D-. Talk about waving the white flag before the season starts. This team has about as much hope of contending as their pitching staff does of keeping their ERA below 5: none. A wasted season.
Grade Beyond 2011: C-. Greinke is only 27 years old and under team control for a reasonable price through 2012. Are they really better off trading him than they would be trying to convince him to stick around with all the talent they have coming up through the system? I still am unclear what the rush to trade him was all about unless he demanded it.
14) Tampa Bay Rays:
Retained: RP JP Howell
Added: RP Joel Peralta, RP Chris Archer, C Robinson Chirinos, SS Hak Ju-Lee, OF Brandon Gruyer, OF Manny Ramirez, OF Johnny Damon, three first rounders, seven supplemental first rounders as a result of losing free agents
Lost: SP Matt Garza, RP Rafael Soriano, RP Randy Choate, RP Chad Qualls, RP Grant Balfour, RP Joaquin Benoit, 1B Carlos Pena, SS Jason Bartlett, OF Carl Crawford, OF Brad Hawpe, OF Fernando Perez
Recap: This offseason will be known as the exodus. They lost their best player (and outfielder), their first baseman, their shortstop, their number two starter, their closer, and half the bullpen. Before the Damon and Manny signings, I would have said that no team in history lost more talent (Florida's firesales of the 90's notwithstanding) during one offseason.
Grade for 2011: D- (was F). Damon and Manny help, but they still lost way too much talent lost.
Grade Beyond 2011: A-. The Garza trade netted them four decent prospects, and they will dominate the early part of the 2011 Draft.
The National League rankings will follow next Wednesday.
Remember to download "The Sports Banter" app for iPhone.
These rankings - which are scaled to the league - are based on what has happened to each team since the final out of the World Series was recorded, including free agent signings, releases, non-tenders, trades, and retirements.
1) Boston Red Sox
Retained: RP Andrew Miller, DH David Ortiz, C Jason Varitek
Added: RP Bobby Jenks, RP Dan Wheeler, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford
Lost: SP Casey Kelly, C Victor Martinez, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Felipe Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, OF Reymond Fuentes
Recap: Boston signed the premier outfielder on the market and acquired one of the game's best hitters without having to sacrifice anything from their Major League roster. They did lose Beltre to the Rangers but after acquiring Gonzalez had no place to start him without having to move Kevin Youkilis to the bench.
Grade for 2011: A+. AGonz and Crawford should be worth five wins each, and the Sox should be disappointed with anything less than 98 wins in '11.
Grade Beyond 2011: B+. Although they dealt highly-rated prospects (read: not sure things) for him, AGonz will only be 28 on Opening Day. Crawford will be 29. They could easily form the nucleus in Beantown for the next seven years. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
2) Chicago White Sox:
Retained: RP Matt Thornton, C AJ Pierzynski, C Ramon Castro, 1B Paul Konerko, 3B Omar Vizquel
Added: RP Jesse Crain, RP Will Ohman, DH Adam Dunn
Lost: SP Freddy Garcia, RP JJ Putz, RP Bobby Jenks, OF Andruw Jones
Recap: The South Siders solidified the bullpen (addition by subtraction with Jenks) and added a run-producing DH that routinely crushes 40 homers per season.
Grade for 2011: A-. This is my sleeper team in '11. If the pitching staff can hold up over the course of the season, they are the best value on the board to win the World Series (30:1).
Grade Beyond 2011: C. Giving Konerko a three-year deal (he'll be 35 on Opening Day) was a major risk despite his career year in 2010. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
3 (were 6)) Texas Rangers:
Retained: C Matt Treanor
Added: SP Brandon Webb, RP Arthur Rhodes, C Mike Napoli, C Yorvit Torrealba, 3B Adrian Beltre
Lost: SP Cliff Lee, SP Rich Harden, RP Frank Francisco, C Bengie Molina, OF Jeff Francouer, OF Vlad Guerrero
Recap: A really interesting winter for the American League champs. They basically swapped out Cliff Lee for Adrian Beltre, a reasonable move considering the money involved. I like the risk they took on Brandon Webb although the chances of it failing are at least eight times (very scientific) the chances that he returns to his Cy Young form.
Grade for 2011: A- (was B-). Lee is a workhorse and the responsibility of replacing him will need to be spread among either inexperienced arms (think Derek Holland) or aging vets (Webb). Replacing Vlad won't be so simple either as he OPS+'d 122. The Napoli deal was brilliant as they dealt a fungible, injury-riddled reliever for a power hitting catcher that can also DH or platoon at first.
Grade Beyond 2011: B+ (was B). If given the choice, I like the idea of giving huge money to a position player rather than a pitcher. Napoli will not cost much more than Francisco would have, but he will provide more value.
4 (were 3)) Oakland A's:
Retained: 2B Mark Ellis, OF Coco Crisp
Added: SP Rich Harden, SP Brandon McCarthy, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Grant Balfour, OF Josh Willingham, DH Hideki Matsui
Lost: SP Justin Duchscherer, SP Ben Sheets, 3B Eric Chavez, OF Travis Buck, DH Jack Cust
Recap: The underrated Willingham goes to his third team (Marlins, Nats) that plays in a pitcher's park. Despite this, he still mashes to the tune of a 265 BA / .267 OBP / .475 Slg triple-slash. However, injuries have been his nemesis as he has never played in more than 144 games and hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2007. Oakland also strengthened the 'pen with Balfour and Fuentes. The gambler in me loves the pair of lottery tickets they bought in Harden and McCarthy.
Grade for 2011: B+. Cust was the only player they lost that contributed positively in 2010.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. The A's did not lock themselves into any foolish long-term deals. They went to two-years on Balfour and Fuentes, but I much prefer them to the three-year Rafael Soriano deal. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
5 (were 4)) Detroit Tigers:
Retained: DH Magglio Ordonez, 3B Brandon Inge, 3B Jhonny Peralta
Added: SP Brad Penny, RP Joaquin Benoit, C Victor Martinez
Lost: SP Jeremy Bonderman, SP Armando Galarraga, C Gerald Laird, OF Johnny Damon
Recap: VMart will provide stability and switch-hitability in the middle of the lineup between Miguel Cabrera and Magglio. Benoit will be the bridge to closer Jose Valverde. Penny is a risk worth taking as a fifth starter.
Grade for 2011: B. In 2010, the Tigers' catchers triple-slashed an abysmal .223 / .294 / .330. Martinez's career numbers: .302 / .351 / .493.
Grade Beyond 2011: C. Giving Victor Martinez four years was risky since the catcher will be 32 on Opening Day - meaning a transition to DH will likely be in his near future. Not crazy about the three-year deal for Benoit, either. They are also docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
6 (were 5)) Baltimore Orioles :
Retained: RP Koji Uehara, SS Cesar Izturis
Added: RP Kevin Gregg, RP Jeremy Accardo, 1B Derrek Lee, 2B Brendan Harris, SS JJ Hardy, 3B Mark Reynolds
Lost: SP Kevin Millwood, RP Mark Hendrickson, 3B Miguel Tejada, 3B Ty Wigginton
Recap: Put simply, the O's got better during the offseason for the first time in a long time. Unfortunately, they reside in a division home to the league's two biggest spenders and the league's smartest spenders.
Grade for 2011: B-. Reynolds will strike out a ton, but he'll also provide a power threat.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. Baltimore didn't rock the boat. The deal for Lee is only for one year, and they resisted whatever urge they might have had to overpay an aging veteran with "name" value (see Atkins, Garrett or Tejada, Miguel).
7) Seattle Mariners:
Retained: SP Erik Bedard
Added: DH Jack Cust, C Miguel Olivo, 2B Adam Kennedy
Lost: SP Ryan Rowland-Smith, 1B Casey Kotchmann, 2B Jose Lopez, DH Russell Branyan
Recap: A pretty ho hum offseason in the Pacific Northwest. They improve slightly at DH. They could also catch a huge break if Milton Bradley's arrest qualifies as a breach of contract.
Grade for 2011: C+. Status quo.
Grade Beyond 2011: C+. They didn't do anything dumb (like signing Chone Figgins) or anything really dumb (like trading Kng Felix).
8) Minnesota Twins:
Retained: SP Carl Pavano, DH Jim Thome, OF Jason Kubel
Added: 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka, one first rounder, and five supplemental first rounders as a result of losing free agents
Lost: RP Jesse Crain, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Matt Guerrier, RP Jon Rauch, 2B Orlando Hudson
Recap: Losing four key performers out of the bullpen will hurt, but remember they get Joe Nathan back (hopefully). Nishioka will be a younger, cheaper, better version of Hudson.
Grade for 2011: C. Need to watch Nishioka before making any judgments.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. The draft picks really soften the blow of losing some key performers out of the 'pen.
9) New York Yankees:
Retained: RP Mariano Rivera, SS Derek Jeter
Added: RP Rafael Soriano, RP Pedro Feliciano, C Russell Martin
Lost: SP Andy Pettitte, SP Javier Vazquez, SP Dustin Moseley, RP Kerry Wood, RP Alfredo Aceves, 1B Lance Berkman, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Marcus Thames
Recap: The Yankees' offseason will be best known for what they didn't do: sign Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford. After missing on the big fish(es), GM Brian Cashman focused on solidifying a bullpen that was actually very good last season (3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) especially considering they played half their games in a bandbox. However, it cost them dearly - $30m for Rivera and $35m plus their first rounder for Soriano.
The Yanks also added Martin with the hope he could revive his career; he's only two years removed from a .280 BA / .385 OBP season, but it's rare to see a catcher bounce back once the inevitable decline begins.
Overall, there's not much to get excited about. They lost more talent than they acquired and both Jeter and Rivera are on the downswings of storied careers. With this roster they have right now and the lack of starting pitching depth, winning 95 games again this season will be a challenge
Grade for 2011: C-. Focus should have been on starting, not relief pitching.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. Despite talk of not wanting to sign a free agent that would require them to give up their first rounder, the Yanks signed Soriano and did just that.
10) Los Angeles Angels:
Retained: N/A
Added: RP Scott Downs, RP Hisanori Takahashi, OF Vernon Wells
Lost: DH Hideki Matsui, DH Juan Rivera, C Mike Napoli,
Recap: Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. The story of every offseason in recent memory for the Angels. I detailed all of their "near" misses and still haven't been able to explain the lack of success in obtaining talent. They tried to spice things up by acquiring Wells (sure to be a colossal disaster in the last two year of his deal) for the price it would have cost them to sign Adrian Beltre and re-sign Napoli. Confusing.
Grade for 2011: C- (was D+). Wells will be better than the combination of Napoli and Rivera in 2011, but this now locks Jeff Mathis into regular at bats (see also: ominous signs for your baseball team) preventing me from upgrading them further. Are Downs and Takahashi difference makers? At least they didn't lose any big names this year.
Grade Beyond 2011: D- (was C-). Taking on over $80m of the Wells contract is borderline ludicrous. Giving Takahashi a two year deal when he will be 36 on Opening Day makes little sense. Giving Downs a three-year deal when he will be 35 on Opening Day makes even less.
11) Cleveland Indians:
Retained: N/A
Added: SS Adam Everett, OF Austin Kearns, OF Travis Buck
Lost: N/A
Recap: Being a fan in Cleveland right now is not enviable. I actually have no idea how the Indians plan to improve this season or beyond. Their three "moves" are all short-term fixes with very limited upside. A really bad offseason for the Tribe considering they won 69 games last year. In my mind, they have three players to build around: Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, and Shin-Soo Choo (two missed a large chunk of the year with injury). They need help.
Grade for 2011: D. A head-scratching offseason. It's almost like they aren't trying. Do something, anything. Buy out Hafner. Sign an international free agent. Come on.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. No discernable effort was made to improve the team long-term either. Santana can't turn this ship around by himself.
12) Toronto Blue Jays:
Retained: RP Jason Frasor, C Jose Molina, 3B Edwin Encarnacion
Added: RP Octavio Dotel, RP Carlos Villanueva, RP Frank Francisco, DH Juan Rivera, 2B Brett Lawrie, OF Rajai Davis, OF Corey Patterson, four supplemental first rounders, one second rounder as a result of losing free agents
Lost: SP Shaun Marcum, RP Jeremy Accardo, RP Scott Downs, RP Kevin Gregg, C John Buck, C Miguel Olivo, 1B Lyle Overbay, OF Vernon Wells
Recap: Toronto's moves this offseason were made with 2012 in mind. If you need proof, look no further than the brilliant move to trade for Miguel Olivo and offer him arbitration knowing he would decline, giving them a supplemental first rounder when he signed with the Mariners (he was a Type B free agent). Unfortunately, that won't help at all this year.
Grade for 2011: D- (was D). They lost their catcher, their entire bullpen, and their number two starter. Not a winning combo. The Wells deal does not help the 2011 product as he would have been more productive than Francisco and Rivera combined).
Grade Beyond 2011: A+ (was B+). Riding themselves of the Wells contract was tremendous, saving the team over $80m. Lawrie plus picks should help immensely long-term.
13) Kansas City Royals:
Retained: 3B Wilson Betemit
Added: SP Jeff Francis, SP Jake Odorizzi, RP Jeremy Jeffress, SS Alcides Escobar, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Jeff Francouer, OF Lorenzo Cain
Lost: SP Zack Greinke, SP Gil Meche, SP Bruce Chen, SS Yuniesky Betancourt
Recap: They traded an established ace for four prospects (none of whom is considered "can't miss") and added two terrible outfielders. Hey, at least they brought back Wilson Betemit. Oh that's right, it's not 2002 (that whole list is pretty laughable right now).
Grade for 2011: D-. Talk about waving the white flag before the season starts. This team has about as much hope of contending as their pitching staff does of keeping their ERA below 5: none. A wasted season.
Grade Beyond 2011: C-. Greinke is only 27 years old and under team control for a reasonable price through 2012. Are they really better off trading him than they would be trying to convince him to stick around with all the talent they have coming up through the system? I still am unclear what the rush to trade him was all about unless he demanded it.
14) Tampa Bay Rays:
Retained: RP JP Howell
Added: RP Joel Peralta, RP Chris Archer, C Robinson Chirinos, SS Hak Ju-Lee, OF Brandon Gruyer, OF Manny Ramirez, OF Johnny Damon, three first rounders, seven supplemental first rounders as a result of losing free agents
Lost: SP Matt Garza, RP Rafael Soriano, RP Randy Choate, RP Chad Qualls, RP Grant Balfour, RP Joaquin Benoit, 1B Carlos Pena, SS Jason Bartlett, OF Carl Crawford, OF Brad Hawpe, OF Fernando Perez
Recap: This offseason will be known as the exodus. They lost their best player (and outfielder), their first baseman, their shortstop, their number two starter, their closer, and half the bullpen. Before the Damon and Manny signings, I would have said that no team in history lost more talent (Florida's firesales of the 90's notwithstanding) during one offseason.
Grade for 2011: D- (was F). Damon and Manny help, but they still lost way too much talent lost.
Grade Beyond 2011: A-. The Garza trade netted them four decent prospects, and they will dominate the early part of the 2011 Draft.
The National League rankings will follow next Wednesday.
Remember to download "The Sports Banter" app for iPhone.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Conference Championship Weekend: 11 Things I Know I Know
1. I know this is about as crushing a defeat as I have ever suffered in my sports-watching career. The Jets had huge hopes entering the season, got off to a great start, and then struggled towards the end of the year before rolling off four victories in their last five games, including two in the playoffs. They got my hopes up coming into the AFC title game only to throw a stink bomb of a first half before trying to fight back late. Just brutal.
Now, in my conscious life (since I was five years old in 1988), my teams have never won a championship. The Jets, Mets, Nets, and Islanders are now a combined 0-for-89. Awesome.
2. I know Caleb Hanie must be regretting his decision to rock a mustache during his 15 minutes of fame. Really, Caleb, a moustache? We all know you had no plans to be seen or heard today, but anything can happen in the NFL playoffs. This should be a lesson. By the way, I'm giving Jay Cutler the benefit of the doubt with regard to his injuries. I trust if he was able, he would have been on the field.
3. I know that both Green Bay and Pittsburgh set the tone for the day with dominating opening drives. The Packers went down the field for a touchdown in five minutes while establishing the pass. It took the Steelers nine minutes to do the same while establishing the run. Both of their respective opponents made valiant comeback efforts but could not recover after falling behind early.
4. I know it's not a good sign when your defense has a better shot of making an explosive, field position-changing play than your offense does. Unfortunately for Chicago, this was the exact case. While we are on the subject, Aaron Rodgers' tackle of Brian Urlacher on the interception was the key play of the game.
5. I know the Jets did not score an offensive opening quarter touchdown since Week Four. You can only come from behind so many times.
6. I know conference championship Sunday featured an incredible display of linebacking talent. Chicago had Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. Green Bay countered with Clay Mathews, Desmond Bishop, and AJ Hawk. Pittsburgh had Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, James Farrior, and James Harrison. New York offered Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Bryan Thomas, and David Harris. Wow.
7. I know the sack/fumble of Mark Sanchez at the end of the first half was the biggest play of the game, but it could have and should have been avoided. With the Jets facing 2nd-and-17, they should have let the half expire. Instead, they rushed their second down play (an incompletion) setting up the sack/fumble and the game. It amazes me how often coaches botch end of half play-calling.
8. I know Todd Collins should not be in the NFL. Clearly Lovie Smith knows this too as he benched his backup quarterback after only two series. I just don't understand what those two drives told us that everyone in the organization didn't already know.
9. I know Jason Taylor should follow Collins out the door. It was an impressive 14-year run, but it's time to hang them up. Taylor failed to make any impact whatsoever in weeks.
10. I know Peyton Manning is a commercial whore. How else can he justify agreeing to dress up in bubble wrap shoulder pads while giving an interview into a bubble wrap microphone. Learn to say no.
11. I know the Packers will defeat the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. Green Bay's offense is nearly unstoppable (imagine if they had a solid running back), and their defense can shut down the passing attack of Pittsburgh. I'm taking the Pack and laying any number of points Vegas asks of me.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
2011: Hobby Tracker (1/22)
Three-team parlay: Phoenix (NBA) ML w/ Illinois (CBB) +3.5 w/ Villanova (CBB) +5.5. 25 to win 150.
Bankroll: 1022
At risk: 225 (wager above + fantasy basketball)
Bankroll: 1022
At risk: 225 (wager above + fantasy basketball)
Thursday, January 20, 2011
2011: Hobby Tracker (1/19)
Meant to post this yesterday. It didn't hit.
Two-team parlay: Thunder +3.5 w/ Blazers -1.5. 25 to win 65.
Bankroll: 1047
At risk: 225 (wager above + fantasy basketball)
Two-team parlay: Thunder +3.5 w/ Blazers -1.5. 25 to win 65.
Bankroll: 1047
At risk: 225 (wager above + fantasy basketball)
Ranking the Offseasons: AL
These rankings - which are scaled to the league - are based on what has happened to each team since the final out of the World Series was recorded, including free agent signings, releases, non-tenders, trades, and retirements.
1) Boston Red Sox
Retained: RP Mariano Rivera, SS Derek Jeter
Added: RP Rafael Soriano, RP Pedro Feliciano, C Russell Martin
Lost: SP Andy Pettitte, SP Javier Vazquez, SP Dustin Moseley, RP Kerry Wood, RP Alfredo Aceves, 1B Lance Berkman, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Marcus Thames
Recap: The Yankees' offseason will be best known for what they didn't do: sign Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford. After missing on the big fish(es), GM Brian Cashman focused on solidifying a bullpen that was actually very good last season (3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) especially considering they played half their games in a bandbox. However, it cost them dearly - $30m for Rivera and $35m plus their first rounder for Soriano.
The Yanks also added Martin with the hope he could revive his career; he's only two years removed from a .280 BA / .385 OBP season, but it's rare to see a catcher bounce back once the inevitable decline begins.
Overall, there's not much to get excited about. They lost more talent than they acquired and both Jeter and Rivera are on the downswings of storied careers. With this roster they have right now and the lack of starting pitching depth, winning 95 games again this season will be a challenge
Grade for 2011: C-. Focus should have been on starting, not relief pitching.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. Despite talk of not wanting to sign a free agent that would require them to give up their first rounder, the Yanks signed Soriano and did just that.
12) Toronto Blue Jays
13) Kansas City Royals:
Retained: 3B Wilson Betemit
1) Boston Red Sox
Retained: RP Andrew Miller, DH David Ortiz, C Jason Varitek
Added: RP Bobby Jenks, RP Dan Wheeler, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford
Lost: SP Casey Kelly, C Victor Martinez, 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Felipe Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, OF Reymond Fuentes
Recap: Boston signed the premier outfielder on the market and acquired one of the game's best hitters without having to sacrifice anything from their Major League roster. They did lose Beltre to the Rangers but after acquiring Gonzalez had no place to start him without having to move Kevin Youkilis to the bench.
Grade for 2011: A+. AGonz and Crawford should be worth five wins each, and the Sox should be disappointed with anything less than 98 wins in '11.
Grade Beyond 2011: B+. Although they dealt highly-rated prospects (read: not sure things) for him, AGonz will only be 28 on Opening Day. Crawford will be 29. They could easily form the nucleus in Beantown for the next seven years. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
2) Chicago White Sox:
Retained: RP Matt Thornton, C AJ Pierzynski, C Ramon Castro, 1B Paul Konerko, 3B Omar Vizquel
Added: RP Jesse Crain, RP Will Ohman, DH Adam Dunn
Lost: SP Freddy Garcia, RP JJ Putz, RP Bobby Jenks, OF Andruw Jones
Recap: The South Siders solidified the bullpen (addition by subtraction with Jenks) and added a run-producing DH that routinely crushes 40 homers per season.
Grade for 2011: A-. This is my sleeper team in '11. If the pitching staff can hold up over the course of the season, they are the best value on the board to win the World Series (30:1).
Grade Beyond 2011: C. Giving Konerko a three-year deal (he'll be 35 on Opening Day) was a major risk despite his career year in 2010. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
3) Oakland A's:
Retained: 2B Mark Ellis, OF Coco Crisp
Added: SP Rich Harden, SP Brandon McCarthy, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Grant Belfour, OF Josh Willingham, DH Hideki Matsui
Lost: SP Justin Duchscherer, SP Ben Sheets, 3B Eric Chavez, OF Travis Buck, DH Jack Cust
Recap: The underrated Willingham goes to his third team (Marlins, Nats) that plays in a pitcher's park. Despite this, he still mashes to the tune of a 265 BA / .267 OBP / .475 Slg triple-slash. However, injuries have been his nemesis as he has never played in more than 144 games and hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2007. Oakland also strengthened the 'pen with Balfour and Fuentes. The gambler in me loves the pair of lottery tickets they bought in Harden and McCarthy.
Grade for 2011: B+. Cust was the only player they lost that contributed positively in 2010.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. The A's did not lock themselves into any foolish long-term deals. They went to two-years on Balfour and Fuentes, but I much prefer them to the three-year Rafael Soriano deal. They are docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
4) Detroit Tigers:
Retained: DH Magglio Ordonez, 3B Brandon Inge, 3B Jhonny Peralta
Added: SP Brad Penny, RP Joaquin Benoit, C Victor Martinez
Lost: SP Jeremy Bonderman, SP Armando Galarraga, C Gerald Laird, OF Johnny Damon
Recap: VMart will provide stability and switch-hitability in the middle of the lineup between Miguel Cabrera and Magglio. Benoit will be the bridge to closer Jose Valverde. Penny is a risk worth taking as a fifth starter.
Grade for 2011: B. In 2010, the Tigers' catchers triple-slashed an abysmal .223 / .294 / .330. Martinez's career numbers: .302 / .351 / .493.
Grade Beyond 2011: C. Giving Victor Martinez four years was risky since the catcher will be 32 on Opening Day - meaning a transition to DH will likely be in his near future. Not crazy about the three-year deal for Benoit, either. They are also docked points for having to surrender their first rounder in 2011.
5) Baltimore Orioles
Retained: RP Koji Uehara, SS Cesar Izturis
Added: RP Kevin Gregg, RP Jeremy Accardo, 1B Derrek Lee, 2B Brendan Harris, SS JJ Hardy, 3B Mark Reynolds
Lost: SP Kevin Millwood, RP Mark Hendrickson, 3B Miguel Tejada, 3B Ty Wigginton
Recap: Put simply, the O's got better. Unfortunately, they reside in a division home to the league's two biggest spenders and the league's smartest spenders.
Grade for 2011: B-. Reynolds will strike out a ton, but he'll also provide a power threat.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. Baltimore didn't rock the boat. The deal for Lee is only for one year, and they resisted whatever urge they might have had to overpay an aging veteran with "name" value (see Atkins, Garrett or Tejada, Miguel).
6) Texas Rangers:
Retained: C Matt Treanor
Added: SP Brandon Webb, RP Arthur Rhodes, C Yorvit Torrealba, 3B Adrian Beltre
Lost: SP Cliff Lee, SP Rich Harden, C Bengie Molina, OF Jeff Francouer, OF Vlad Guerrero
Recap: A really interesting winter for the American League champs. They basically swapped out Cliff Lee for Adrian Beltre, a reasonable move considering the money involved. I like the risk they took on Brandon Webb although the chances of it failing are at least eight times (very scientific) the chances that he returns to his Cy Young form.
Grade for 2011: B-. Lee is a workhorse and the responsibility of replacing him will need to be spread among either inexperienced arms (think Derek Holland) or aging vets (Webb). replacing Vlad won't be so simple either as he OPS+'d 122.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. If given the choice, I like the idea of giving huge money to a position player rather than a pitcher.
7) Seattle Mariners:
Retained: SP Erik Bedard
Added: DH Jack Cust, C Miguel Olivo, 2B Adam Kennedy
Lost: SP Ryan Rowland-Smith, 1B Casey Kotchmann, 2B Jose Lopez, DH Russell Branyan
Recap: A pretty ho hum offseason in the Pacific Northwest. They improve slightly at DH. They could also catch a huge break if Milton Bradley's arrest qualifies as a breach of contract.
Grade for 2011: C+. Status quo.
Grade Beyond 2011: C+. They didn't do anything dumb (like signing Chone Figgins) or anything really dumb (like trading Kng Felix).
8) Minnesota Twins:
Retained: DH Jim Thome, OF Jason Kubel, SP Carl Pavano
Added: 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka, one first rounder, and five supplemental first rounders as a result of losing free agents
Lost: RP Jesse Crain, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Matt Guerrier, RP Jon Rauch, 2B Orlando Hudson
Recap: Losing four key performers out of the bullpen will hurt, but remember they get Joe Nathan back (hopefully). Nishioka will be a younger, cheaper, better version of Hudson.
Grade for 2011: C. This grade is based on Carl Pavano re-signing.
Grade Beyond 2011: B. The draft picks really soften the blow of losing some key performers out of the 'pen.
9) New York Yankees
Retained: RP Mariano Rivera, SS Derek Jeter
Added: RP Rafael Soriano, RP Pedro Feliciano, C Russell Martin
Lost: SP Andy Pettitte, SP Javier Vazquez, SP Dustin Moseley, RP Kerry Wood, RP Alfredo Aceves, 1B Lance Berkman, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Marcus Thames
Recap: The Yankees' offseason will be best known for what they didn't do: sign Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford. After missing on the big fish(es), GM Brian Cashman focused on solidifying a bullpen that was actually very good last season (3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) especially considering they played half their games in a bandbox. However, it cost them dearly - $30m for Rivera and $35m plus their first rounder for Soriano.
The Yanks also added Martin with the hope he could revive his career; he's only two years removed from a .280 BA / .385 OBP season, but it's rare to see a catcher bounce back once the inevitable decline begins.
Overall, there's not much to get excited about. They lost more talent than they acquired and both Jeter and Rivera are on the downswings of storied careers. With this roster they have right now and the lack of starting pitching depth, winning 95 games again this season will be a challenge
Grade for 2011: C-. Focus should have been on starting, not relief pitching.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. Despite talk of not wanting to sign a free agent that would require them to give up their first rounder, the Yanks signed Soriano and did just that.
10) Los Angeles Angels:
Retained: N/A
Added: RP Scott Downs, RP Hisanori Takahashi
Lost: DH Hideki Matsui
Recap: Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. The story of every offseason in recent memory for the Angels. I detailed all of their "near" misses and still haven't been able to explain the lack of success in obtaining talent.
Grade for 2011: D+. Are Downs and Takahashi difference makers? At least they didn't lose any big names this year.
Grade Beyond 2011: C-. Giving Takahashi a two year deal when he will be 36 on Opening Day makes little sense. Giving Downs a three-year deal when he will be 35 on Opening Day makes even less.
11) Cleveland Indians:
Retained: N/A
Added: SS Adam Everett, OF Austin Kearns, OF Travis Buck
Lost: N/A
Recap: Being a fan in Cleveland right now is not enviable. I actually have no idea how the Indians plan to improve this season or beyond. Their three "moves" are all short-term fixes with very limited upside. A really bad offseason for the Tribe considering they won 69 games last year. In my mind, they have three players to build around: Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, and Shin-Soo Choo (two missed a large chunk of the year with injury). They need help.
Grade for 2011: D. A head-scratching offseason. It's almost like they aren't trying. Do something, anything. Buy out Hafner. Sign an international free agent. Come on.
Grade Beyond 2011: D. No discernable effort was made to improve the team leng-term either. Santana can't turn this ship around by himself.
12) Toronto Blue Jays
Retained: RP Jason Frasor, C Jose Molina, 3B Edwin Encarnacion
Added: RP Octavio Dotel, RP Carlos Villanueva, 2B Brett Lawrie, OF Rajai Davis, OF Corey Patterson, four supplemental first rounders, one second rounder as a result of losing free agents
Lost: SP Shaun Marcum, RP Jeremy Accardo, RP Scott Downs, RP Kevin Gregg, C John Buck, C Miguel Olivo, 1B Lyle Overbay
Recap: Toronto's moves this offseason were made with 2012 in mind. If you need proof, look no further than the brilliant move to trade for Miguel Olivo and offer him arbitration knowing he would decline, giving them a supplemental first rounder when he signed with the Mariners (he was a Type B free agent). Unfortunately, that won't help at all this year.
Grade for 2011: D. They lost their catcher, their entire bullpen, and their number two starter. Not a winning combo.
Grade Beyond 2011: B+. Lawrie plus picks should help immensely long-term.
13) Kansas City Royals:
Retained: 3B Wilson Betemit
Added: SP Jeff Francis, SP Jake Odorizzi, RP Jeremy Jeffress, SS Alcides Escobar, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Jeff Francouer, OF Lorenzo Cain
Lost: SP Zack Greinke, SP Gil Meche, SP Bruce Chen, SS Yuniesky Betancourt
Recap: They traded an established ace for four prospects (none of whom is considered "can't miss") and added two terrible outfielders. Hey, at least they brought back Wilson Betemit. Oh that's right, it's not 2002 (that whole list is pretty laughable right now).
Grade for 2011: D-. Talk about waving the white flag before the season starts. This team has about as much hope of contending as their pitching staff does of keeping their ERA below 5: none. A wasted season.
Grade Beyond 2011: C-. Greinke is only 27 years old and under team control for a reasonable price through 2012. Are they really better off trading him than they would be trying to convince him to stick around with all the talent they have coming up through the system? I still am unclear what the rush to trade him was all about unless he demanded it.
14) Tampa Bay Rays
Retained: RP JP Howell
Added: RP Joel Peralta, RP Chris Archer, C Robinson Chirinos, SS Hak Ju-Lee, OF Brandon Gruyer, three first rounders, seven supplemental first rounders as a result of losing free agents
Lost: SP Matt Garza, RP Rafael Soriano, RP Randy Choate, RP Chad Qualls, RP Grant Balfour, RP Joaquin Benoit, 1B Carlos Pena, SS Jason Bartlett, OF Carl Crawford, OF Brad Hawpe, OF Fernando Perez
Recap: This offseason will be known as the exodus. They lost their best player (and outfielder), their first baseman, their shortstop, their number two starter, their closer, and half the bullpen. I will venture to guess that no team in history lost more talent (Florida's firesales of the 90's notwithstanding).
Grade for 2011: F. Way too much talent lost.
Grade Beyond 2011: A-. The Garza trade netted them four decent prospects, and they will dominate the early part of the 2011 Draft.
The National League rankings will follow next week.
Remember to download "The Sports Banter" app for iPhone.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
The Illustrious Recent History of Denver Bronco RBs
With Laurence Maroney's arrest for weapons possession, my unofficial count of recent Denver Bronco running backs that have run afoul of the law hits 10: Maroney, Henry, Droughns, Bell, Pittman, Davis, Cobbs, Buckhalter, White, and Moreno.
Yup. Double digits. Ten running backs associated with the Denver franchise since 2000. That's incredible. Not quite the Bengals of the Rockies but they are creeping.
By know, we all know the sad Travis Henry story: 11 children by 10 different women (had it not been for unexpected twins in 2009, he would have been a "perfect" 10-for-10). He was released one year into a 5-year, $22.5m contract with the Broncos, subsequently failed some more drug tests, and then was nabbed as part of a drug-trafficking ring. He is currently serving a three-year sentence in federal prison.
Reuben Droughns was arrested in 2005 for DUI. He was also suspected of growing pot in his house, although I found no proof any charges were filed.
Maurice Clarrett, Denver's third round draft pick in 2005, has made news recently with a semi-successful comeback. Of course, he was arrested for "aggravated robbery and carrying a concealed weapon in connection with a holdup outside a Columbus bar" in 2006, but I guess we need to give credit were due.
Tatum Bell was accused of stealing former teammate Rudi Johnson's bags after Bell was cut from the Lions.
Michael Pittman was charged with aggravated battery after allegedly ramming his car into his wife's car while she was inside. His wife also claims he abused her physically at least 30 times.
According to his Wikipedia page, Terrell Davis "was named in the Atlanta's Gold Club federal prostitution, fraud and racketeering trial... Davis was never charged with any criminal wrongdoing. However, Campbell's Soups dropped him from their advertising shortly thereafter."
Cedric Cobbs was arrested for marijuana possession - among other charges - while a student at the University of Arkansas.
Correll Buckhalter was accused of being a client of a drug dealer by that drug dealer.
LenDale White was cited by police for interference and resisting by police in Denver.
Knowshon Moreno was involved in a bar fight in Athens, GA, although no chargers were filed.
Enough is enough, John Elway. The onus is now on you to clean up this mess.
In Related News...
...some New York Jets called Deion Branch winless, as in the last five years' worth of postseason play.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Tri-State Sports Guys Recap
The always entertaining Tri-State Sports Guys, Mike and O, wrap up the Packers-Falcons game and throw a mention to the Banter (6:00 mark).
Like them on Facebook here to get updates on future podcasts including later this week when they put out their weekend football picks.
Hopefully, they'll agree to be guests on our first baseball podcast in late January / early February. Either way, check them out.
2011 NFL Mock Draft: Take One
1. Panthers: WR AJ Green, Georgia - Carolina picked a bad year to have the #1 overall pick because there is no consensus top selection. Jimmy Clausen cannot be the long-term solution, but is there a quarterback available that's without question marks? No, and franchises cannot afford to miss with the top pick at the position (see: Tim Couch, 1999; David Carr, 2002; Alex Smith, 2005; JaMarcus Russell, 2007).
To compound their problems, the team dealt this year's second round pick to New England meaning they won't select again until pick 65. They need an infusion of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and Green would provide just that. For my money, he's the best player available and would single-handedly change the look of the offense.
Crazy stat: In 2010, the Panthers averaged almost 40 passing yards less per game than the next worst offense.
2. Broncos: DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson - Julius Peppers 2.0? John Fox sure hopes so. Denver registered the fewest sacks in the NFL last season. They need to develop some type of pass rush. Bowers can and will help immediately in this area. They'll sprint to the podium to make this pick.
Crazy stat I: Bowers rushed for 1,200 yards as a senior in high school.
Crazy stat II: Bowers would be the first player born in the 1990's to ever be drafted.
3. Bills: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn - Fairley basically came out of nowhere - like the rest of the Auburn team. In 2009, he had 29 tackles (only 3.5 for loss). This season, he dominated college football. Despite being consistently double-teamed, Fairley racked up 60 tackles, 11 sacks, and 24 tackles for loss. His presence would only help a depleted Bills' defensive line which was shredded for a league-worst 170 yards per game. Another pick that should take about 15 seconds to make unless Buffalo is worried about these comments.
4. Bengals: DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina - Death, taxes, and the Bengals employing players with character issues. Life's only certainties. Quinn's off-the-field issues aren't as worrisome as some others have been (he accepted money from an agent and was forced to sit out the 2010 season), but is it a preview of things to come? Cincy better hope not because he has difference-making potential along the defensive front, and they had the league's fourth-fewest sacks.
5. Cardinals: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri - After the Derek Anderson-Max Hall-John Skelton fiasco, Arizona clearly needs to hand the reigns to a capable signal-caller. The team struggled mightily getting the ball to their best player, Larry Fitzgerald (and all other players for that matter). An average passing game would open things up in the running game. Truthfully, I am not convinced Gabbert can be a top tier quarterback in the league, but he would certainly be an improvement over the Holy "Crap I Can't Believe He's This Bad" Trinity.
6. Browns: DT Marcel Dareus, Alabama - Cleveland has to answer one question: is Colt McCoy the quarterback of the future? I would think new head coach Pat Shurmur thinks so or he wouldn't have jumped ship on Sam Bradford. So, the Browns can address the defensive side of the ball after giving up 129 yards per game on the ground last season. Dareus would look great next to Shaun Rogers...especially if you are into the 700lbs defensive tackle combo kind of thing.
7. 49ers: QB Jake Locker, Washington - If anyone in the NFL knows Jake Locker's strengths and weaknesses, it's Jim Harbaugh who had to prepare for Locker in each of the his four seasons at Stanford. San Fran is desperate for a face of the franchise, and Locker seems like the ticket. he was a front-runner for the top pick of last year's draft before deciding to return to Washington. Can one year make that big of a difference?
8. Titans: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas - If the statue known as Kerry Collins can have success in Tennessee, I think Mallett can too. He's lead-footed and struggles when flushed out of the pocket, but cannon arms like his don't come along very often. He will, however, be able to lean heavily on the league's best running back, Chris Johnson. The more I think about this, the more I like the fit.
9. Cowboys: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU - A dream scenario for Dallas would have either of the draft's top two cornerbacks slipping to them. In this case, they have the option to take either. Peterson has shutdown-corner potential and can immediately contribute in the return game, possibly taking some of the burden off Dez Bryant. The Cowboys have gotten progressively worse over the last three years against the pass (188 yards/game in 2008, 225 in '09, and 243 in '10). Peterson would help reverse the trend.
10. Redskins: WR Julio Jones, Alabama - Yes, Cam Newton would be available in this scenario. No, the Skins will not take him. He's a younger - and better - version of Donovan McNabb, but we all know how that experiment turned out in DC. If they nab Newton, I'll run a marathon. And, unlike my boy Peter King, I'll actually do it if I'm wrong. Now, about Jones. He was All-Everything in high school, started from Day One at Alabama, and offers the downfield threat missing in Washington.
11. Texans: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska - At one point this year, Houston's secondary was called "the worst ever." I'm not sure if I would go that far, but they did allow the most passing yards per game by any team since 2005. In my mind, they should make a run at newly-minted free agent CB Nnamdi Asomugha and take Amukamara (and not only to drive the Texans' beat writers crazy trying to type these names every day). The two of them wouldn't cure all of Houston's ills, but it would help.
12. Vikings: QB Cam Newton, Auburn - Minnesota fans are fooling themselves if they think Joe Webb is the answer at the quarterback position. Newton, fresh off a Heisman Trophy, has lost two games in the past three years (one at Florida in 2008, one at Blinn College in '09).
13. Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC - Priority #1 in Detroit has to be keeping QB Matthew Stafford healthy. Protecting him would be a good idea.
14. Rams: OG Mike Pouncey, Florida - Priority #1 in St. Louis has to be keeping QB Sam Bradford healthy. Protecting him would be a good idea.
15. Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama - Far and away the best running back in this class, Ingram would seamlessly take over for the Ricky Williams-Ronnie Brown combo and help whomever lines up under center next season. It would not surprise me if Ingram ends up being popped in the top 10 picks. For my money, he's the best running back available in the draft since Adrian Peterson in 2007.
16. Jaguars: Adrian Clayborn, Iowa - The injury to DE Aaron Kampman was devastating as the Jags tied for the second-fewest sacks in the NFL last year. Clayborn, who had a bit of a down year, can invigorate the group.
17. Patriots (via Oakland): LB Von Miller, Texas A&M - New England had one of the league's youngest defenses this season, and it showed as they struggled on that side of the ball, especially against the pass. The easiest way to improve pass defense: get pressure on the quarterback. If Miller can do one thing, it's that.
18. Chargers: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State - Heyward was the most dominant defensive end at Ohio State since Vernon Gholston. Let's hope he can have more professional success than his predecessor. San Diego registered the second most sacks in the league last season, but you can never have too many pass rushers (just ask the next team on the board).
19. Giants: LB Akeem Ayers, UCLA - Upgrading from Keith Bulluck to Ayers would boost the GMen defense into the league's top three squads. They already have the league's best defensive end combo, and their safeties are great. Ayers would allow defensive coordinator Perry Fewell (assuming he doesn't get hired away) to get even more creative with his schemes.
20. Bucs: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue - Last year, the Bucs solidified the DT position by taking Gerald McCoy and Brian Price with their first two picks. Adding another piece along the defensive line will go a long way towards the Bucs improving a dismal sack total.
21. Chiefs: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin - Carimi would slide right into the starting right tackle position on Day One and help an already stellar Kansas City rushing attack. A perfect late first round pick.
22. Colts: OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State - Indy was forced to start three backup offensive linemen during their playoff game against the Jets. Sherrod can be the long-term solution for Peyton's blind side.
23. Eagles: OT Nate Solder, Colorado - Michael Vick took way too many hits this year. Many of them came when Vick scrambled, but if he had better protection in the pocket, he wouldn't have to scramble so often.
24. Saints: S Rahim Moore, UCLA - New Orleans' defense was torched against Seattle in the playoffs for 41 points. This was a Seattle team that averaged 19 points during the regular season. The main culprit: S Roman Harper. The safety position is in need of an upgrade and Moore is the best one in the class.
Crazy Stat: In 2009, Darren Sharper had nine interceptions. In 2010, the whole Saints team had nine interceptions.
25. Seahawks: DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State - At this point in the first round, Paea is simply too good to pass up. The Seahawks have offensive issues, but a run-stopping defensive lineman is invaluable.
26. Ravens: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin - Surprisingly, the Ravens struggled to get to the quarterback this season. They recorded only 27 sacks, tied for fourth-worst in the league. Watt, possessor of the never-ceasing motor, would be a great fit.
27. Falcons: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame - Tony Gonzalez's career cannot last forever. It's time to start grooming a replacement.
28. Patriots: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh - After the despicable showing by New England's wide receiver corps yesterday, it's time to prioritize the position and land a true #1.
29. Bears: DT Drake Nevis, LSU - Chicago fans should love the idea of Nevis and Tommie Harris stuffing the middle and shutting down the opponent's running game every week.
30. Steelers: DE Aldon Smith, Missouri - The Steelers love hybrid DE/LBs (see: Woodley, LaMarr and Timmons, Lawrence and Harrison, James). It makes sense since the hybrids have led the Steelers defense to three consecutive top-three finishes in sacks.
31. Packers: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College - Notice a trend here? Teams with franchise quarterbacks need to find the muscle to protect them. Every dollar spent keeping QB Aaron Rodgers clean is money well spent.
32. Jets: OG Ben Ijalana, Villanova - Damien Woody has had a great career, but his time is done and the Jets need to start grooming some linemen to take over. As they proved last year with their selection of Vladimir Ducasse, New York will not shy away from taking talented guards from smaller schools. Not a sexy pick, but a necessary one.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Divisional Weekend: 11 Things I Know I Know
1. I know the two wide receivers - Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh - Baltimore acquired in the offseason to help get them over the hump were the two players that cost them when it mattered most. With under four minutes remaining, Boldin dropped an easy touchdown which would have given the Ravens a four-point lead. Instead, they settled for a field goal which tied the game at 24. With very little pressure on them (the game was tied and they had already battled back from 14 down), the Steelers came right back down the field and scored a touchdown.
After a big kickoff return, the Ravens faced a fourth-and-18 on their own 44 yard line with just over a minute to play. Joe Flacco threw a perfect pass to TJH only to see it slip right through his hands. Game over. Season over.
2. I know fans in Pittsburgh sitting at the 50-yard line hung a huge banner that read: "Zero (Steelers logo) Tolerance." Call me crazy, but didn't your franchise quarterback get suspended for the first four games of the season for allegedly sexually abusing a 20-year old college student? Yes, in fact he did. How quickly they forget.
3. I know Tramon Williams has ended two consecutive playoff games with huge interceptions. Williams intercepted Michael Vick in the end zone last week to seal Green Bay's victory over Philadelphia. This week, he intercepted the uber-underwhelming Falcons' QB Matt Ryan and returned it for a score as the first half concluded putting the Packers up by 14, completely demoralizing the Falcons.
Earlier in the second quarter, Williams intercepted Ryan in the end zone keeping the score tied at 14. For my money, he has been the postseason MVP so far.
4. I know that if there were a leaguewide redistribution draft today, Aaron Rodgers would be the first player selected. The 27-year old is in complete control - both of the offense and himself - at all times. He's working on back-to-back-to-back 3900+ yard seasons. He's durable (one game missed in the last three years), has a cannon, and he performs in the clutch. This postseason, he's 49-63 for 546 yards, six touchdowns, and no picks. Pretty decent, huh?
It wouldn't hurt having Erin Andrews around all the time, either.
Just for fun (or torture), here are some of the guys picked ahead of Rodgers - selected 24th overall in 2005: Alex Smith (first overall, San Fran); Adam Jones (sixth, Tennessee); Troy Williamson and Erasmus James (seventh and 18th, Minnesota); David Pollack (17th, Cincinnati); Matt Jones (21st, Jacksonville); and Fabian Washington (23rd). Whoops.
5. I know Saturday was a brutal night for Atlanta sports fans. The Falcons got walloped, 48-21 by Green Bay. The Hawks, 8.5-point favorites, lost at home against the Rockets, 112-106, and the Thrashers lost 6-1 at Dallas. I'm sure the Gold Club was busy, though, with all the athletes in town. So not everyone in the town lost after all.
Who else didn't lose? The Banter.
6. I know Pete Carroll waved the white flag when his team was down 28-0 in the third quarter, and he attempted a field goal. Really, cutting a four-possession game to a...four-possession game is a good idea, how?
Let's play "what if." What if Seattle punches it into the end zone to make it 28-7 with 17 minutes to play. What if they cut it to a seven-point lead late in the fourth instead of an 11-point lead. What if.
7. I know the Jets backed up all of their trash talk, every single word spoken since August. Take a bow, Rex. Your boys did the impossible going into Foxboro and slaying the monster.
8. I know Tom Brady is 0-2 in his last two home playoff games. If everyone is going to give Peyton Manning a hard time, Brady deserves it too. Sure, he has the four Super Bowls to Manning's one, but Manning has never lost two consecutive home playoff games.
9. I know the Jets looked awful in only one facet of the game: fielding onside kicks. As a Jet fan, I will take that any day of the week because they looked incredible on defense, they looked competent enough on offense, and they are now a game away from Dallas.
10. I know Shonn Greene should have taken a knee at the one instead of scoring a touchdown with 1:41 remaining. By scoring, he gave the Patriots an opportunity to come back in the game. Had he taken a knee, the game would have been over.
11. I know the Jets and Packers will be playing in Dallas on February 6th, but if you read the Banter regularly, you would have known that since September 9th, 2010. J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets.
The Banter is seven-for-eight this postseason, missing only on New Orleans during Wildcard Weekend.
No matter who wins the Super Bowl, the University of Michigan will have at least one alumnus on the team (Green Bay: Charles Woodson; Chicago: Todd Collins; New York: David Harris and Braylan Edwards; Pittsburgh: Larry Foote and LaMarr Woodley). The Wolverines are the only team with at least one representative on each of these four teams.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
After a big kickoff return, the Ravens faced a fourth-and-18 on their own 44 yard line with just over a minute to play. Joe Flacco threw a perfect pass to TJH only to see it slip right through his hands. Game over. Season over.
2. I know fans in Pittsburgh sitting at the 50-yard line hung a huge banner that read: "Zero (Steelers logo) Tolerance." Call me crazy, but didn't your franchise quarterback get suspended for the first four games of the season for allegedly sexually abusing a 20-year old college student? Yes, in fact he did. How quickly they forget.
3. I know Tramon Williams has ended two consecutive playoff games with huge interceptions. Williams intercepted Michael Vick in the end zone last week to seal Green Bay's victory over Philadelphia. This week, he intercepted the uber-underwhelming Falcons' QB Matt Ryan and returned it for a score as the first half concluded putting the Packers up by 14, completely demoralizing the Falcons.
Earlier in the second quarter, Williams intercepted Ryan in the end zone keeping the score tied at 14. For my money, he has been the postseason MVP so far.
4. I know that if there were a leaguewide redistribution draft today, Aaron Rodgers would be the first player selected. The 27-year old is in complete control - both of the offense and himself - at all times. He's working on back-to-back-to-back 3900+ yard seasons. He's durable (one game missed in the last three years), has a cannon, and he performs in the clutch. This postseason, he's 49-63 for 546 yards, six touchdowns, and no picks. Pretty decent, huh?
It wouldn't hurt having Erin Andrews around all the time, either.
Just for fun (or torture), here are some of the guys picked ahead of Rodgers - selected 24th overall in 2005: Alex Smith (first overall, San Fran); Adam Jones (sixth, Tennessee); Troy Williamson and Erasmus James (seventh and 18th, Minnesota); David Pollack (17th, Cincinnati); Matt Jones (21st, Jacksonville); and Fabian Washington (23rd). Whoops.
5. I know Saturday was a brutal night for Atlanta sports fans. The Falcons got walloped, 48-21 by Green Bay. The Hawks, 8.5-point favorites, lost at home against the Rockets, 112-106, and the Thrashers lost 6-1 at Dallas. I'm sure the Gold Club was busy, though, with all the athletes in town. So not everyone in the town lost after all.
Who else didn't lose? The Banter.
6. I know Pete Carroll waved the white flag when his team was down 28-0 in the third quarter, and he attempted a field goal. Really, cutting a four-possession game to a...four-possession game is a good idea, how?
Let's play "what if." What if Seattle punches it into the end zone to make it 28-7 with 17 minutes to play. What if they cut it to a seven-point lead late in the fourth instead of an 11-point lead. What if.
7. I know the Jets backed up all of their trash talk, every single word spoken since August. Take a bow, Rex. Your boys did the impossible going into Foxboro and slaying the monster.
8. I know Tom Brady is 0-2 in his last two home playoff games. If everyone is going to give Peyton Manning a hard time, Brady deserves it too. Sure, he has the four Super Bowls to Manning's one, but Manning has never lost two consecutive home playoff games.
9. I know the Jets looked awful in only one facet of the game: fielding onside kicks. As a Jet fan, I will take that any day of the week because they looked incredible on defense, they looked competent enough on offense, and they are now a game away from Dallas.
10. I know Shonn Greene should have taken a knee at the one instead of scoring a touchdown with 1:41 remaining. By scoring, he gave the Patriots an opportunity to come back in the game. Had he taken a knee, the game would have been over.
11. I know the Jets and Packers will be playing in Dallas on February 6th, but if you read the Banter regularly, you would have known that since September 9th, 2010. J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets.
The Banter is seven-for-eight this postseason, missing only on New Orleans during Wildcard Weekend.
No matter who wins the Super Bowl, the University of Michigan will have at least one alumnus on the team (Green Bay: Charles Woodson; Chicago: Todd Collins; New York: David Harris and Braylan Edwards; Pittsburgh: Larry Foote and LaMarr Woodley). The Wolverines are the only team with at least one representative on each of these four teams.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
2011: Hobby Tracker (1/15)
Two-team parlay: Rockets +8.5 w/ Packers ML. 25 to win 72.
Bankroll: $975
At risk: $225 (wager above + fantasy basketball)
At risk: $225 (wager above + fantasy basketball)
Friday, January 14, 2011
MLBTR Link
Tnaks for the link in today's Baseball Blogs Weigh In, Mike.
That's five weeks and counting. Need to come up with something better next week...
2011: Hobby Tracker
Spending $1000 over an entire year on your favorite hobby seems like a reasonable investment. When that favorite hobby happens to be placing bets on sporting events / playing fantasy sports, it's an even better idea. After all, not many hobbies offer the potential for return on investment.
So, I allocated $1000 on January 1st to risk in 2011. Lucky for you, I'll track the progress here every week or two.
I have made four bets since the calendar flipped.
The first was a three team parlay on this weekend's Wildcard games: Jets ML w/ Ravens ML w/ Packers ML. Risk 25 to win 172.
The second was the Packers +3. Risk 100 to win 100.
After the Jets and Ravens hit, I had about an hour before the Packers game started. At this point, there were four potential outcomes:
Packers win outright: +272
Pack lose but cover: +75
Pack lose by 3: -25
Pack lose by 4 or more: -125
Losing the third game of a three-team parlay is infuriating. Couple that with the fact I had another 100 on the Pack covering, and it made sense for me to hedge. Since I put the Pack bet in, the line moved in my favor and sat at Philly -2.
My third bet, placed 15 minutes before kickoff, was Philly -2. Risk 72 to win 65. Now the scenarios were:
Packers win outright: +200
Pack lose by 1: +3
Pack lose by 2: +75
Pack lose by 3: +40
Pack lose by 4 or more: -60
I minimized my upside in exchange for minimizing the downsize, and now I would make money if the game was decided by a field goal either way.
As it turns out, the Pack won outright so I shouldn't have hedged but the game was much more enjoyable knowing I was protected.
My fourth bet was a $200 wager on fantasy basketball. If my team beats another particular team in the league, I win. If not, I lose. Simple but it ties up my money until April.
As of 1/13/11-
Bankroll: $1000
At risk: $200 (fantasy basketball)
Intriguing lines: Seattle ML +395, NY Jets ML +325, Green Bay +2.5, Atlanta Hawks 35/1 to win Eastern Conference, Memphis Grizzlies 70/1 to win Western Conference, South Carolina 50/1 to win 2012 BCS Title
So, I allocated $1000 on January 1st to risk in 2011. Lucky for you, I'll track the progress here every week or two.
I have made four bets since the calendar flipped.
The first was a three team parlay on this weekend's Wildcard games: Jets ML w/ Ravens ML w/ Packers ML. Risk 25 to win 172.
The second was the Packers +3. Risk 100 to win 100.
After the Jets and Ravens hit, I had about an hour before the Packers game started. At this point, there were four potential outcomes:
Packers win outright: +272
Pack lose but cover: +75
Pack lose by 3: -25
Pack lose by 4 or more: -125
Losing the third game of a three-team parlay is infuriating. Couple that with the fact I had another 100 on the Pack covering, and it made sense for me to hedge. Since I put the Pack bet in, the line moved in my favor and sat at Philly -2.
My third bet, placed 15 minutes before kickoff, was Philly -2. Risk 72 to win 65. Now the scenarios were:
Packers win outright: +200
Pack lose by 1: +3
Pack lose by 2: +75
Pack lose by 3: +40
Pack lose by 4 or more: -60
I minimized my upside in exchange for minimizing the downsize, and now I would make money if the game was decided by a field goal either way.
As it turns out, the Pack won outright so I shouldn't have hedged but the game was much more enjoyable knowing I was protected.
My fourth bet was a $200 wager on fantasy basketball. If my team beats another particular team in the league, I win. If not, I lose. Simple but it ties up my money until April.
As of 1/13/11-
Bankroll: $1000
At risk: $200 (fantasy basketball)
Intriguing lines: Seattle ML +395, NY Jets ML +325, Green Bay +2.5, Atlanta Hawks 35/1 to win Eastern Conference, Memphis Grizzlies 70/1 to win Western Conference, South Carolina 50/1 to win 2012 BCS Title
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Upcoming Schedule
I love working with the threat of a deadline looming. So, I've created completely arbitrary ones for myself. Hopefully, these posts will be up sooner, but here is my tentative schedule:
Friday (1/13): Intro to "2011: Hobby Tracker"
Wednesday (1/19): NFL Mock Draft
Monday (1/24): Ranking the MLB Offseasons
MLB Power Rankings: January 13, 2010
1. Red Sox
2. Phillies
3. Rangers
4. Braves
5. Giants
6. Yankees
7. White Sox
8. Tigers
9. Rays
10. Cardinals
11. Twins
12. Rockies
13. Brewers
14. Reds
15. Blue Jays
16. Dodgers
17. Athletics
18. Marlins
19. Cubs
20. Angels
21. Orioles
22. Nationals
23. Mariners
24. Padres
25. Mets
26. Astros
27. Indians
28. Diamondbacks
29. Pirates
30. Royals
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Mock Draft Update
The first 2011 NFL Mock Draft will be released by next Thursday. At that time, we'll have a better idea of who's staying and who's going. We'll also know all but four of the draft slots.
Get. Pumped.
Looking Back at the Trades of the 2010 NFL Draft
Best Deal: New England trading their 2nd Rounder (RB Ben Tate - missed reason because of injury) for Houston's 2nd (LB Brandon Spikes) and 5th (P Zoltan Mesko) Rounders
Worst Deal: Carolina trading their 2011 2nd Rounder (which turns out to be the 33rd overall pick) for New England's 2010 3rd Rounder (QB Armanti Edwards)
(Yes, you could make the argument that the Patriots made the best two deals, but I hate giving Bill Belichick credit.)
Most Even Deal: New England trading one of their 2nd Rounders (DE Lamarr Houston) and their 6th (LB Travis Goethel) for Oakland's 2nd Rounder (TE Rob Gronkowski)
Second Most Even Deal: San Diego traded their 1st (DE Jared Odrick) and a 2nd (LB Koa Misi) Rounders for Miami's 1st Rounder (Ryan Mathews)
Others You'll Hear About During ESPN's 57 Hours of Draft Coverage:
1) As part of the Brandon Marshall deal, Denver receives Miami's 2nd Rounder.
2) As part of the Donovan McNabb deal, Washington owes Philadelphia its 4th Rounder.
3) As part of a four-pick swap, San Diego owes San Francisco its 4th Rounder.
4) As part of the Antonio Cromartie deal, the Jets owe San Diego their 2nd Rounder.
As much as I hate to admit it, New England's 2010 Draft could be one of the greatest drafts in history. They came away with Spikes, Mesko, Carolina's 2011 2nd Rounder, Gronkowski, TE Aaron Hernandez, CB Devin McCourtey, LB Jermaine Cunningham, and WR Taylor Price.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
If You Predicted...
...that a list created in 2011 of the nation's top 25 freshmen would include a player from South Dakota State, Harvard, Vermont, Duquesne, and Detroit, but not Harrison Barnes, you would have been correct.
(H/T RTC)
(H/T RTC)
Coupling Some of the Remaining Free Agents
Adam Dunn has found a new home on the South Side of Chicago where he will earn an average of $14m per season for the next four years. Dunn, possessor of mammo power, has hit 38 or more home runs every season for the last seven years. However, he has a sharp career platoon split. His numbers against lefthanded pitching are not terrible, but the bulk of the value he provides comes from the damage he does against righties:
vs RHP: .258 Avg; .393 OBP; .548 Slg; .941 OPS
vs LHP: .235 Avg; .352 OBP; .465 Slg; .817 OPS
Bill James predicts Dunn's 2011 line to look like this: 39 HR; .247 Avg; .373 OBP; .511 Slg; .884 OPS
My theory*: I think these players below, if coupled properly, could provide slightly less production for (potentially much) less cost than Adam Dunn.
*Note to self: Still need to get around to researching my theory that Carl Crawford - being the league's best LF - would make a great CF.
None of these six players is a Type A free agent, meaning they would not cost the signing team anything in the way of draft picks.
Tier I: Vlad Guerrero / Jim Thome
Estimated cost: $13.5m - $6.5m for Thome; $7m for Vlad
Thome mashed against righties last year to the triple slash tune of 302 / 495 / 698. Just ridiculous. His success, at 40 years old, can at least partially be attributed to the fact he was able to rest against lefties on many days. In the scenario I am suggesting, Thome would have the same luxury because Vlad dominates southpaws.
Against lefties, Vlad hit 338 / 395 / 536 in 2010. those numbers are actually down from his career numbers of 325 / 406 / 588. To be expected as he ages.
Although not exactly models of health, both of these players are likely seeking one-year deals meaning the risk would be low, and Vlad is already familiar with the team having played there from 2005-09.
The upgrade at DH over Juan Rivera could be worth as many as four wins.
This lineup wouldn't look terrible either:
Erick Aybar, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Bobby Abreu, LF
Torii Hunter, RF
Kendry Morales, 1B
Vlad / Thome DH
Alberto Callaspo, 3B
Peter Bourjos, CF
Jeff Mathis, C
Aside from Mathis, all others have the potential to do some damage with either the bat or on the basepaths.
Tier II: Manny Ramirez / Johnny Damon
Estimated cost: $8m plus incentives - $4m plus incentives for Manny; $4m for Damon
The lineups might look like this:
vs RHP
Damon, DH
Dan Johnson, 1B
Ben Zobrist, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Reid Brignac, SS
BJ Upton, CF
John Jaso, C
Sean Rodriguez, 2B
Desmond Jennings, LF
vs LHP
Desmond Jennings, LF
BJ Upton, CF
Ben Zobrist, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Manny, DH
Sean Rodriguez, 2B
Kelly Shoppach, C
Reid Brignac, SS
Dan Johnson, 1B
One potential pitfall: both players are represented by Scott Boras. The Rays have not been known to deal with him in the past although this likely has more to do with the fact that the players he represents fall out of the Rays' price range.
Tier III: Ruscus Thanyan (Russell Branyan / Marcus Thames)
Estimated cost: $2.5m - $1.5m for Branyan; $1m for Thames
Projected line: 24 HR; .260 Avg; .352 OBP; .500 Slg; .852 OPS
Best Fit: San Diego - For all the reasons described here.
Download "The Sports Banter App" for iPhone.
vs RHP: .258 Avg; .393 OBP; .548 Slg; .941 OPS
vs LHP: .235 Avg; .352 OBP; .465 Slg; .817 OPS
Bill James predicts Dunn's 2011 line to look like this: 39 HR; .247 Avg; .373 OBP; .511 Slg; .884 OPS
My theory*: I think these players below, if coupled properly, could provide slightly less production for (potentially much) less cost than Adam Dunn.
*Note to self: Still need to get around to researching my theory that Carl Crawford - being the league's best LF - would make a great CF.
None of these six players is a Type A free agent, meaning they would not cost the signing team anything in the way of draft picks.
Tier I: Vlad Guerrero / Jim Thome
Estimated cost: $13.5m - $6.5m for Thome; $7m for Vlad
Projected line: 28 HR; .310 Avg; .410 OBP; .550 Slg; .960 OPS
Best Fit: LA Angels - The Angels have not been able to lure any big name free agents to the land of Disney, and no one seems to quite know why. There are no long-term fixes (read: young) free agents on the market this offseason, but the team is still in desperate need of power. These two would provide just that in the middle of the lineup.Thome mashed against righties last year to the triple slash tune of 302 / 495 / 698. Just ridiculous. His success, at 40 years old, can at least partially be attributed to the fact he was able to rest against lefties on many days. In the scenario I am suggesting, Thome would have the same luxury because Vlad dominates southpaws.
Against lefties, Vlad hit 338 / 395 / 536 in 2010. those numbers are actually down from his career numbers of 325 / 406 / 588. To be expected as he ages.
Although not exactly models of health, both of these players are likely seeking one-year deals meaning the risk would be low, and Vlad is already familiar with the team having played there from 2005-09.
The upgrade at DH over Juan Rivera could be worth as many as four wins.
This lineup wouldn't look terrible either:
Erick Aybar, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Bobby Abreu, LF
Torii Hunter, RF
Kendry Morales, 1B
Vlad / Thome DH
Alberto Callaspo, 3B
Peter Bourjos, CF
Jeff Mathis, C
Aside from Mathis, all others have the potential to do some damage with either the bat or on the basepaths.
Tier II: Manny Ramirez / Johnny Damon
Estimated cost: $8m plus incentives - $4m plus incentives for Manny; $4m for Damon
Projected line: 18 HR; .300 Avg; .380 OBP; .450 Slg; .830 OPS
Best Fit: Tampa Bay - This pairing offers a combination of skill sets with Manny supplying the power and Damon offering the on-base/speed attributes (although he only stole 11 bags last year).
By dealing Matt Garza, the Rays saved about $5m in 2011 salary. This would lead me to believe they have a bit of money to spend. Both struggled a bit in 2010, but is it worth the $8m gamble to see if one or both can regain their form? I think so, but then again it's not my money.
[Update: The Rays wasted $3.25m on Kyle Farnsworth putting this scenario in doubt.]By dealing Matt Garza, the Rays saved about $5m in 2011 salary. This would lead me to believe they have a bit of money to spend. Both struggled a bit in 2010, but is it worth the $8m gamble to see if one or both can regain their form? I think so, but then again it's not my money.
The lineups might look like this:
vs RHP
Damon, DH
Dan Johnson, 1B
Ben Zobrist, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Reid Brignac, SS
BJ Upton, CF
John Jaso, C
Sean Rodriguez, 2B
Desmond Jennings, LF
vs LHP
Desmond Jennings, LF
BJ Upton, CF
Ben Zobrist, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Manny, DH
Sean Rodriguez, 2B
Kelly Shoppach, C
Reid Brignac, SS
Dan Johnson, 1B
One potential pitfall: both players are represented by Scott Boras. The Rays have not been known to deal with him in the past although this likely has more to do with the fact that the players he represents fall out of the Rays' price range.
Tier III: Ruscus Thanyan (Russell Branyan / Marcus Thames)
Estimated cost: $2.5m - $1.5m for Branyan; $1m for Thames
Projected line: 24 HR; .260 Avg; .352 OBP; .500 Slg; .852 OPS
Best Fit: San Diego - For all the reasons described here.
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And By This They Meant...
"The Broncos came to their senses and realized Gregg Williams is an awful defensive coordinator and would be an even worse head coach."
What He Really Meant Was...
"Saints beg Broncos to interview DC Gregg Williams in hopes he'll leave for another job."
After Saturday's pathetic defensive performance out of the Saints, why would Denver even consider him?
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Lamar Odom: The Man
Aside from him taste in women which leaves a bit to be desired, I think the always-popular Lamar Odom is a class act.
During tonight's Knicks-Lakers broadcast, Mike Breen told a story about Odom along these lines:
During Lamar's senior year at Christ the King High School, when he knew scouts / college coaches were in attendance, he wouldn't shoot. Since he knew he had a scholarship already, he wanted his teammates to get noticed.
Cool move, Lamar.
During tonight's Knicks-Lakers broadcast, Mike Breen told a story about Odom along these lines:
During Lamar's senior year at Christ the King High School, when he knew scouts / college coaches were in attendance, he wouldn't shoot. Since he knew he had a scholarship already, he wanted his teammates to get noticed.
Cool move, Lamar.
Wildcard Weekend: 11 Things I Know I Know
1- I know if a team wins its division, they deserve a home game in the playoffs. The Seahawks quieted all of the "no team with a losing record should be in the playoffs" talk, and I couldn't be happier.
It was assumed by nearly everyone including me (point 11) that New Orleans would roll over Seattle. Of course, it didn't happen, and the game set the tone for a great weekend of football.
By the way, that Marshawn Lynch scamper was incredible. Really, really incredible.
2- I know the two biggest plays of the Jets-Colts game were the Antonio Cromartie kick return and the timeout Jim Caldwell called in the last minute of the game.
The Cromartie return put the Jets in scoring position. The importance of this play is obvious.
A somewhat less obvious play of importance was the Caldwell timeout with 0:29 left in the game and the Jets facing a second down at the Indy 33.
There was no intelligent reason for Jim Caldwell to call timeout. What could he possibly have been thinking? "Let's give the Jets more time to put Nick Folk in closer range for a field goal"? Seriously, what was he thinking? Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth didn't make a big enough deal of this during the live broadcast. As a Jet fan, I only cheered louder once all night (as the winning field goal was going through the uprights) than I did when Caldwell called timeout.
3- I know the Jets were in a position to win late because of the defense's play early. The Colts' first three drives went three and out. In fact, they all stalled on 3rd-and-1 at their own 29-yard line. Not many people will be talking about these early drives, but they allowed the Jets to hang around just long enough for their offense to awaken.
All of Rex Ryan's talk about his defense was warranted this week.
4- I know Peyton Manning shouldn't be blamed for this one. He had the Colts in position to win with under a minute left in the game. Not much more can be asked when three backups were starting along the offensive line, their tight end missed the entire season, and they lost their third and fourth best wide receivers. It was just too much to overcome, and the lack of skill finally caught up.
5- I know the Chiefs won the right games this year, but they simply could not compete on this level. Kansas City won one game all season against a team with a winning record (Week 1 against San Diego), and they were simply outclassed by the Ravens. Nice season, but it ended appropriately.
6- I know Aaron Rodgers grew up today. With under a minute to go in the first half and the Packers leading 14-3, Rodgers threw a perfect pass to James Jones which should have gone for a 63-yard touchdown. It would have given Green Bay an 18-point lead at the half. Instead, Jones dropped the pass, and the lead remained at 11.
On the first drive of the second half, Rodgers lost a fumble, and the Eagles scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, cutting the lead to four with 27+ minutes to play.
Rodgers calmly led the Packers on an 11-play, 80-yard touchdown drive which bumped the lead back up to 11 points. It was a tremendously important drive and ultimately was the difference in the game.
7- I know that the coaches leading playoff teams are incredibly talented. With 16 weeks' worth of information, each coach can find, identify, and exploit their opponents' weaknesses. The Seahawks challenged the Saints' defense repeatedly. The Jets took away Reggie Wayne. The Ravens shut down the Chiefs' passing game forcing them to be one-dimensional. The Packers spied Michael Vick.
The teams that come out victorious are the ones that can adjust on the fly.
8- I know all the talk about "not drafting safeties too high" is bogus. Every year around draft time, we hear something along the lines of "he would go higher but he plays safety." Can we stop all of that talk this year? Look at the top three drafted this year: Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, and Nate Allen. What do they have in common? Their teams all made the playoffs. I don't think this can be chalked up to luck as each of these players had a major impact on his team's defensive success (although Allen was lost late in the year to injury).
Look for players like UCLA's Rahim Moore and Florida's Ahmad Black to be the biggest beneficiaries this April.
9- I know the Bears are the luckiest team in the NFL.
They had the "Calvin Johnson Play" in Week 1. Every game against tough non-divisional competition came at home (Philly, New England, NY Jets), and they were able to win two of those three games. Then, they back into the number two seed thanks to a Philadelphia collapse at home against Minnesota. Now, they get the Seahawks at home instead of the Saints? Wow.
10- I know the AFC will feature two of its best rivalries in the Divisional Round: New York at New England and Baltimore at Pittsburgh. This will be the third matchup this year for each of these teams (each team won once). I cannot wait.
11- I know road teams won't be as lucky in the Divisional Round as they were on Wildcard Weekend, but I expect two of them to emerge victorious: Green Bay and New York.
In Week 12, the Packers nearly won in Atlanta (the Falcons were saved by a late Matty Ice drive). They finally may have found a running game and are riding waves of momentum. The Saints laid the blueprint for success against the Falcons two weeks ago.
The Jets have a lot to prove after being walloped during Week 13 at New England. Two things that give me hope: a) the Patriots have completely avoided the turnover bug, and that cannot last; b) the New England defense has been terrible. Rex will exploit that weakness.
Oh yea, my Packers-Jets Super Bowl prediction still lives.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
It was assumed by nearly everyone including me (point 11) that New Orleans would roll over Seattle. Of course, it didn't happen, and the game set the tone for a great weekend of football.
By the way, that Marshawn Lynch scamper was incredible. Really, really incredible.
2- I know the two biggest plays of the Jets-Colts game were the Antonio Cromartie kick return and the timeout Jim Caldwell called in the last minute of the game.
The Cromartie return put the Jets in scoring position. The importance of this play is obvious.
A somewhat less obvious play of importance was the Caldwell timeout with 0:29 left in the game and the Jets facing a second down at the Indy 33.
There was no intelligent reason for Jim Caldwell to call timeout. What could he possibly have been thinking? "Let's give the Jets more time to put Nick Folk in closer range for a field goal"? Seriously, what was he thinking? Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth didn't make a big enough deal of this during the live broadcast. As a Jet fan, I only cheered louder once all night (as the winning field goal was going through the uprights) than I did when Caldwell called timeout.
The San Diego Chargers comes out of this one pretty happy as well. Because of the New York victory, the Chargers get the Jets' second round pick as a result of the offseason Antonio Cromartie trade. Had New York lost, it would have been a third rounder.
3- I know the Jets were in a position to win late because of the defense's play early. The Colts' first three drives went three and out. In fact, they all stalled on 3rd-and-1 at their own 29-yard line. Not many people will be talking about these early drives, but they allowed the Jets to hang around just long enough for their offense to awaken.
All of Rex Ryan's talk about his defense was warranted this week.
4- I know Peyton Manning shouldn't be blamed for this one. He had the Colts in position to win with under a minute left in the game. Not much more can be asked when three backups were starting along the offensive line, their tight end missed the entire season, and they lost their third and fourth best wide receivers. It was just too much to overcome, and the lack of skill finally caught up.
5- I know the Chiefs won the right games this year, but they simply could not compete on this level. Kansas City won one game all season against a team with a winning record (Week 1 against San Diego), and they were simply outclassed by the Ravens. Nice season, but it ended appropriately.
6- I know Aaron Rodgers grew up today. With under a minute to go in the first half and the Packers leading 14-3, Rodgers threw a perfect pass to James Jones which should have gone for a 63-yard touchdown. It would have given Green Bay an 18-point lead at the half. Instead, Jones dropped the pass, and the lead remained at 11.
On the first drive of the second half, Rodgers lost a fumble, and the Eagles scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive, cutting the lead to four with 27+ minutes to play.
Rodgers calmly led the Packers on an 11-play, 80-yard touchdown drive which bumped the lead back up to 11 points. It was a tremendously important drive and ultimately was the difference in the game.
7- I know that the coaches leading playoff teams are incredibly talented. With 16 weeks' worth of information, each coach can find, identify, and exploit their opponents' weaknesses. The Seahawks challenged the Saints' defense repeatedly. The Jets took away Reggie Wayne. The Ravens shut down the Chiefs' passing game forcing them to be one-dimensional. The Packers spied Michael Vick.
The teams that come out victorious are the ones that can adjust on the fly.
8- I know all the talk about "not drafting safeties too high" is bogus. Every year around draft time, we hear something along the lines of "he would go higher but he plays safety." Can we stop all of that talk this year? Look at the top three drafted this year: Eric Berry, Earl Thomas, and Nate Allen. What do they have in common? Their teams all made the playoffs. I don't think this can be chalked up to luck as each of these players had a major impact on his team's defensive success (although Allen was lost late in the year to injury).
Look for players like UCLA's Rahim Moore and Florida's Ahmad Black to be the biggest beneficiaries this April.
9- I know the Bears are the luckiest team in the NFL.
They had the "Calvin Johnson Play" in Week 1. Every game against tough non-divisional competition came at home (Philly, New England, NY Jets), and they were able to win two of those three games. Then, they back into the number two seed thanks to a Philadelphia collapse at home against Minnesota. Now, they get the Seahawks at home instead of the Saints? Wow.
10- I know the AFC will feature two of its best rivalries in the Divisional Round: New York at New England and Baltimore at Pittsburgh. This will be the third matchup this year for each of these teams (each team won once). I cannot wait.
11- I know road teams won't be as lucky in the Divisional Round as they were on Wildcard Weekend, but I expect two of them to emerge victorious: Green Bay and New York.
In Week 12, the Packers nearly won in Atlanta (the Falcons were saved by a late Matty Ice drive). They finally may have found a running game and are riding waves of momentum. The Saints laid the blueprint for success against the Falcons two weeks ago.
The Jets have a lot to prove after being walloped during Week 13 at New England. Two things that give me hope: a) the Patriots have completely avoided the turnover bug, and that cannot last; b) the New England defense has been terrible. Rex will exploit that weakness.
Oh yea, my Packers-Jets Super Bowl prediction still lives.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
Friday, January 7, 2011
MLBTR Link
Thanks for the link in today's Baseball Blogs Weigh In, Mike. That's four straight weeks for those (hopefully none of you) keeping score at home.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
What An Awful Week for UConn
In the last eight days the following events have transpired at UConn:
12/27/10: Men's Basketball team gets smoked at Pitt, 78-63, ruining a perfect 12-0 start.
12/30/10: Women's Basketball team loses 71-59 at Stanford, the team's first loss in 90 games
1/1/11: After not selling their ticket allotment and having to eat millions of dollars in losses, the Football team gets crushed by Oklahoma 48-20 in the Fiesta Bowl.
1/2/11: Head Football coach Randy Edsall jets town basically in the middle of the night to accept the same position at the University of Maryland.
1/4/11: Men's Basketball team loses at Notre Dame, 73-70
To recap, neither basketball is undefeated anymore, the football team got waxed on national television, and the head coach fled faster than a criminal.
Is there any way we can erase all of these events from the record books, a la Reggie Bush and the Heisman?
Open Question: Is There Something Wrong with Anaheim?
I live on the East Coast. I have very little insight into the goings on out West except for what I read (a decent amount). However, I am at a complete loss trying to explain why the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have only been able to lock up one free agent of note since 2007: Torii Hunter.
Sure, they have signed some decent relief pitchers - Brian Fuentes, Fernando Rodney, Darren Oliver, Scott Downs, Hisanori Takahashi - and overpaid a number of aging veterans - Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Joel Pineiro - but the team that has wanted to make a major splash each offseason has come up virtually empty.
In 2008, they reportedly made runs at CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and Derek Lowe. All four rejected any deal that was offered. The team also watched K-Rod flee for "greener" pastures in Flushing.
In 2009, the Angels reportedly went after Jason Bay and Matt Holliday without success while watching Chone Figgins (Seattle) and John Lackey (Boston) depart as free agents.
Now in 2010, they missed on Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, and Cliff Lee, three guys that would have helped their team immensely.
What gives?
Truthfully, I have very few guesses.
Organization: They have made the playoffs in six of the last nine season, including winning the World Series in 2002. No problems here.
Division: They play in the AL West, a division with only four teams, meaning they have a 25% chance to qualify for the playoffs in any given year - better odds than any other division in baseball. Sounds attractive to me.
Owner: Arte Moreno has given the impression that he's willing to spend money. That works.
Manager: Mike Scioscia seems like a players' kind of manager (runners have green lights at all times). I'm in.
Players: Despite some roster turnover, the players have been good enough to win 89 or more games in six of the last seven season. Great.
Location: Disneyland is within five miles, and LA is within 25 miles. No problems here... unless you hate children.
Even the Nats have been able to woo top talent. Anyone have an idea what's going on here?
My Problems with and Solutions for Our Country
Two things you should know up front (and probably do if you read this site regularly):
-I am incredibly proud to be an American, but I have some problems with our country.
-I really dislike people who complain without offering solutions.
With that intro, allow me to introduce a new* series called "My Problems with and Solutions for Our Country."
*I have run a series of sports pet peeves which will probably overlap a bit but just bear with me.
Here are four:
Problem #1: Frivolous lawsuits. It drives me crazy when people press charges just to make a cheap buck. Don't look for the easy way out.
Solution: If the plaintiff loses the cases, he/she must pay all court-related expenses for both parties as well as a fine for wasting everyone's time.
Problem #2: The BCS.
Solution: Click here.
Problem #3: The television show "Teen Mom." Great idea, MTV. Let's glorify teenage pregnancy. Brilliant.
Solution: Take the show off the air and keep these "celebrities" out of the public eye (especially that one that keeps getting arrested that should never be seen on tv again).
Problem #4: The fact Carl Pavano will land another $30mm+ contract. He was already given one that failed miserably by the Yankees. Now, the Twins, Nats, or some other shlubs will give him tens of millions.
Solution: Do not give Carl Pavano a multi-year deal. Please. For the good of all of baseball and your franchise, DO NOT GIVE CARL PAVANO THIS KIND OF MONEY. Even Alyssa Milano knew when to bail.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Our First Mailbag Question in a While
Ricky P writes:
There any explanation you could give as to why Osi Umenyiora is not in the Pro Bowl and starting opposite Justin Tuck after putting up the NFL's first double digit forced fumble season?
Osi: 48 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 10 Forced Fumbles (NFL RECORD)
Tuck: 76 tackles (He's a defensive end not a linebacker), 11.5 sacks, 6 FF's
Starters:
Julius Peppers: 54 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 3 FF's, 2 INT's (returned for 1 total yard)
John Abraham: 40 tackles, 13 sacks, 2 FF's, INT.
I can see how any one of these guys starts, and one had to be snubbed - but a guy who in any other year besides this one (Vick) wins Comeback Player of the Year, and sets an NFL record, should not only be on the roster but should definitely be starting, IMO.
Serious answer: The NFC DE class this year was really deep. Osi, Tuck, Peppers, Abraham, and even James Hall could have been justified selections.
I would add to your stats above that Peppers and Abraham play on the teams that finished 1st and 2nd in the NFC and had the 2nd and 3rd best defenses in the conference, respectively. (That also means there's a 50% chance Tuck will be added to the NFC roster to replace one of these two while they play in the Super Bowl.)
Peppers was the biggest name free agent last offseason which goes a long way. He also defended / knocked down nine passes on the season. Nnamdi Asomugha, the starting AFC cornerback, had six.
Abraham led the league in sacks for the second time in the last three years. He was the unquestioned leader of a defense that allowed the 5th fewest points in the league (Giants were 17th).
The real problem I have is that Lance Briggs made the Pro Bowl over any of these four. If Tuck were a linebacker, he would be a shoo in.
Not so serious answer: I understand it's the principle, but come on, it's the Pro Bowl. When was the last time you watched one of these?
There any explanation you could give as to why Osi Umenyiora is not in the Pro Bowl and starting opposite Justin Tuck after putting up the NFL's first double digit forced fumble season?
Osi: 48 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 10 Forced Fumbles (NFL RECORD)
Tuck: 76 tackles (He's a defensive end not a linebacker), 11.5 sacks, 6 FF's
Starters:
Julius Peppers: 54 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 3 FF's, 2 INT's (returned for 1 total yard)
John Abraham: 40 tackles, 13 sacks, 2 FF's, INT.
I can see how any one of these guys starts, and one had to be snubbed - but a guy who in any other year besides this one (Vick) wins Comeback Player of the Year, and sets an NFL record, should not only be on the roster but should definitely be starting, IMO.
Serious answer: The NFC DE class this year was really deep. Osi, Tuck, Peppers, Abraham, and even James Hall could have been justified selections.
I would add to your stats above that Peppers and Abraham play on the teams that finished 1st and 2nd in the NFC and had the 2nd and 3rd best defenses in the conference, respectively. (That also means there's a 50% chance Tuck will be added to the NFC roster to replace one of these two while they play in the Super Bowl.)
Peppers was the biggest name free agent last offseason which goes a long way. He also defended / knocked down nine passes on the season. Nnamdi Asomugha, the starting AFC cornerback, had six.
Abraham led the league in sacks for the second time in the last three years. He was the unquestioned leader of a defense that allowed the 5th fewest points in the league (Giants were 17th).
The real problem I have is that Lance Briggs made the Pro Bowl over any of these four. If Tuck were a linebacker, he would be a shoo in.
Not so serious answer: I understand it's the principle, but come on, it's the Pro Bowl. When was the last time you watched one of these?
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Week 17: 11 Things I Know I Know
1. I know every single week of the NFL schedule matters. Don't believe me? Ask the Jets and the Chargers about each of their respective Monday Night Football matchups during Week One.
The Jets lost to Baltimore at home, 10-9. They bounced back to win 11 games, but because of that loss, they are now the six-seed in the AFC playoffs meaning they have to win three road games (at Indianapolis, at New England, and possibly at Pittsburgh) if they want to advance to the Super Bowl.
Thanks to a loss at Kansas City Opening Week, the Chargers find themselves out of the playoffs altogether.
2. I know the top of my 2011 Mock Draft will look like this:
1. Carolina Panthers: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2. Denver Broncos: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
3. Buffalo Bills: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
4. Cincinnati Bengals: DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson
5. Arizona Cardinals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
6. Cleveland Browns: WR AJ Green, Georgia
7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Jake Locker, Washington
8. Seattle Seahawks (Assuming loss to Rams): RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
Editor's Note: Seattle won, so they will not be selecting here
9. Tennessee Titans: DT Marcel Dareus, Alabama
10. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
11. Washington Redskins: OT Nate Solder, Colorado
3. I know a good draft can quickly lead to success. Last season, the top three picks belonged to St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. Each team made strides this season - from laughing stock to respectability. With another solid class, each of these teams can build around their first round franchise quarterbacks and make their way into the playoffs in 2011 and beyond.
4. I know Philadelphia and Green Bay are headed in opposite directions. Sure, the Eagles sat most of their starters this week including Michael Vick, but they laid an egg last week at home against Minnesota and have not been able to ride the wave of the miracle finish against the Giants in Week 15 into any more victories.
Green Bay needed to win their last two games at home against good competition and they performed. Aaron Rodgers stepped up down the stretch and carried the team to the postseason. If they had a consistent running game, they would be the NFC favorites despite their seeding.
5. I know the Giants have a quarterback problem developing. The murmurs for benching Eli Manning would be full-fledged roars if David Tyree doesn't make "the helmet catch" in the Super Bowl. Eli led the league in interceptions this year, marking the second time that has happened in the last four years. His 25 interceptions were the third-most this decade. Winning solves everything, but because the Giants failed to qualify for the postseason, it will likely be a long offseason for Eli.
6. I know Oakland went 6-0 within their division but still missed the playoffs by two games. Just an amazing stat.
7. I know Tom Brady will throw an interception during the playoffs that costs the Patriots the game. This interception-free streak is impressive, but these sorts of things tend to end in ugly fashion.
8. I know Tim Tebow deserves a shot to start at quarterback next season for the Denver Broncos. He has looked competent enough to warrant a chance as the number one guy next season. He can unify the fan base and bring hope where little exists right now.
9. I know it's a shame Dallas waited until Wade Phillips got fired before they started competing. The Cowboys won five of their last eight games, and they only lost those three games by a combined seven points. Things don't look bleak in Dallas.
10. I know fantasy football has to be the hardest of all fantasy sports to play. Year after year, injuries derail at least 25% of teams (yes, that's a very scientific estimate). Even if you are lucky enough to avoid that bug, you had better have a high waiver wire priority in order to pick up an undrafted free agent after a huge Week One performance (see Lloyd, Brandon). Lastly, you had better hope your stud running back doesn't vastly underperform (see Rice, Ray or Greene, Shonn or Mathews, Ryan). It's a very frustrating endeavor.
Side note: Anyone that predicted Brandon Lloyd and Arian Foster would lead the league in receiving and rushing yardage is a liar.
11. I know all four road teams will win their divisional playoff games next weekend. This year features an incredibly impressive array of wildcard teams, each of whom comes into the postseason with momentum.
In the NFC, the Saints should (easily) handle the Seahawks while the Packers will edge Philly.
In the AFC, the Jets' focus since last season has been acquiring the right mix of cornerbacks to shut down Peyton Manning. They'll show the work has paid off. I also expect the Ravens to take care of business at Kansas City.
Side note: I'm sticking with my preseason Super Bowl pick (Jets over Packers) despite the fact both teams are seeded sixth. Can't ditch them now.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
The Jets lost to Baltimore at home, 10-9. They bounced back to win 11 games, but because of that loss, they are now the six-seed in the AFC playoffs meaning they have to win three road games (at Indianapolis, at New England, and possibly at Pittsburgh) if they want to advance to the Super Bowl.
Thanks to a loss at Kansas City Opening Week, the Chargers find themselves out of the playoffs altogether.
2. I know the top of my 2011 Mock Draft will look like this:
1. Carolina Panthers: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2. Denver Broncos: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
3. Buffalo Bills: QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
4. Cincinnati Bengals: DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson
5. Arizona Cardinals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn
6. Cleveland Browns: WR AJ Green, Georgia
7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Jake Locker, Washington
8. Seattle Seahawks (Assuming loss to Rams): RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
Editor's Note: Seattle won, so they will not be selecting here
9. Tennessee Titans: DT Marcel Dareus, Alabama
10. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
11. Washington Redskins: OT Nate Solder, Colorado
3. I know a good draft can quickly lead to success. Last season, the top three picks belonged to St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. Each team made strides this season - from laughing stock to respectability. With another solid class, each of these teams can build around their first round franchise quarterbacks and make their way into the playoffs in 2011 and beyond.
4. I know Philadelphia and Green Bay are headed in opposite directions. Sure, the Eagles sat most of their starters this week including Michael Vick, but they laid an egg last week at home against Minnesota and have not been able to ride the wave of the miracle finish against the Giants in Week 15 into any more victories.
Green Bay needed to win their last two games at home against good competition and they performed. Aaron Rodgers stepped up down the stretch and carried the team to the postseason. If they had a consistent running game, they would be the NFC favorites despite their seeding.
5. I know the Giants have a quarterback problem developing. The murmurs for benching Eli Manning would be full-fledged roars if David Tyree doesn't make "the helmet catch" in the Super Bowl. Eli led the league in interceptions this year, marking the second time that has happened in the last four years. His 25 interceptions were the third-most this decade. Winning solves everything, but because the Giants failed to qualify for the postseason, it will likely be a long offseason for Eli.
6. I know Oakland went 6-0 within their division but still missed the playoffs by two games. Just an amazing stat.
7. I know Tom Brady will throw an interception during the playoffs that costs the Patriots the game. This interception-free streak is impressive, but these sorts of things tend to end in ugly fashion.
8. I know Tim Tebow deserves a shot to start at quarterback next season for the Denver Broncos. He has looked competent enough to warrant a chance as the number one guy next season. He can unify the fan base and bring hope where little exists right now.
9. I know it's a shame Dallas waited until Wade Phillips got fired before they started competing. The Cowboys won five of their last eight games, and they only lost those three games by a combined seven points. Things don't look bleak in Dallas.
10. I know fantasy football has to be the hardest of all fantasy sports to play. Year after year, injuries derail at least 25% of teams (yes, that's a very scientific estimate). Even if you are lucky enough to avoid that bug, you had better have a high waiver wire priority in order to pick up an undrafted free agent after a huge Week One performance (see Lloyd, Brandon). Lastly, you had better hope your stud running back doesn't vastly underperform (see Rice, Ray or Greene, Shonn or Mathews, Ryan). It's a very frustrating endeavor.
Side note: Anyone that predicted Brandon Lloyd and Arian Foster would lead the league in receiving and rushing yardage is a liar.
11. I know all four road teams will win their divisional playoff games next weekend. This year features an incredibly impressive array of wildcard teams, each of whom comes into the postseason with momentum.
In the NFC, the Saints should (easily) handle the Seahawks while the Packers will edge Philly.
In the AFC, the Jets' focus since last season has been acquiring the right mix of cornerbacks to shut down Peyton Manning. They'll show the work has paid off. I also expect the Ravens to take care of business at Kansas City.
Side note: I'm sticking with my preseason Super Bowl pick (Jets over Packers) despite the fact both teams are seeded sixth. Can't ditch them now.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which happens to be my favorite article each week.
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