Had my first losing college football week since early September and ran into some tough luck on the EPL games, going 0-2 there as well. Thankfully, I hit my highest conviction game of the year, Oregon against the spread and in my big parlay which kept the weekend minimally negative (-1.6 units net).
I also took the hit this week on West Virginia winning the BCS, or I guess not winning the BCS which cost me another 2.5 units. There's still an outside shot they can win the Bug 12 so I won't write that off quite yet.
The NFL - and my road favorites - treated me well on Sunday getting me over +50 units for the season. I loved seeing the Packers, Saints, and Cowboys winning this week which helps my futures wagers on each of them.
I thought Mitt Romney was decent in this week's debate, but he'll need to be better to have a shot at winning.
I have a work event all weekend so won't be able to watch much football Saturday. Gotta get home for the Red Zone Channel on Sunday.
College Football
Kent State +13.5 (at Rutgers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Teaser- NE Patriots +3.5 with Notre Dame +20.5 with USC +3.5: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units
NFL
Patriots -6.5 (vs Rams in London): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Cowboys +1.5 (vs NY Giants): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Saints +6 (at Broncos): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC:2.5 units to win 43.8 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units
1. I know Malcolm Jenkins made the play of the day. Situation: Saints lead 28-21, Bucs ball on their own 4-yard line with 7 minutes left in the third quarter. Josh Freeman hits Vincent Jackson for a 95-yard completion but Jenkins tracks V-Jax down at the 1-yard line, saving a touchdown. Four unsuccessful rushes later and Tampa Bay turned it over on downs, and the Saints would never look back winning 35-28.
2. I know the Texans responded in style to the beating they took last week at the hands of the Packers. The Texans now sport an NFL-best +88 point differential, the defense led by JJ Watt is legit, and Arian Foster and Co make this offense scary. On the flip side, I can't believe how bad Baltimore looked. Ray Lewis was a shell of his former self this year so losing him should not have been this devastating but they looked putrid trying to stop Houston and inept trying to score on them.
3. I know the Packers are the team I would least like to face right now in all of football. As good as Houston has been, Green Bay embarrassed them on their home field. Aaron Rodgers is starting to look like MVP Aaron Rodgers again, and they have the best wide receivers in football.
4. I know the Browns wide receivers are the worst receivers in football. They look like athletes, they get open, but they can't catch the ball. Exhibit A: Fourth quarter, Browns face four-pont deficit. Josh Gordon gets behind the defense, Brandon Weeden throws a perfect ball to the goal line, Gordon drops it costing Cleveland the game. (Note: I am 100% not buying the sun in the eyes excuse. These are professional pass catchers.)
5. I know the AFC wild card leaders (this is being written during Sunday Night Football and might change) have only three wins. Three! We are almost done with the seventh week of this season and no non-division leader has more than three wins. That's amazing and speaks to how bad this conference is right now.
6. I know there are no such things as moral victories. That being said, the
Jets surpassed all of my expectations this week in Foxboro by taking the
Patriots to overtime. New York's defense played great all day and kept them in the game. I also loved when the Jets used Antonio Cromartie on Rob Gronkowski.
Might help if the game announcers paid some attention:
I also really dislike that Phil Simms repeatedly says "eem" instead of "him."
7. I know the team I am shorting most is the San Francisco 49ers. I'm a believer in this defense but Alex Smith cannot be trusted to win a team a Super Bowl.
8. I know if the Titans can keep the game closer than three touchdowns, they will win. When they lose, they get crushed as their L's have been by 21, 28, 24, and 23 points. Look at the other games though: 3-point win, 3-point win; 1-point win. If you want to beat Tennessee, don't let them hang around or Matt Hasselbeck will find a way to beat you.
9. I know Cam Newton needs a wake-up call. I thought when Steve Smith called him out during the Giants game, he would respond. Well, clearly he didn't. After today's disaster, he ripped the offensive coordinator for his playcalling. Um, Cam. You were terrible today. Grow up, man up, take some responsibility.
With the road victory, Dallas was able to stay a game and a half behind the red hot Giants in the NFC East. This division is the best in football, and it's not even close. Every team can win on any given week against anyone in the NFL. Eli has the Giants clicking, RG3 has the Redskins hoping, and Dallas and Philly have the talent to make a run.
10. I know the NFL erred by putting only two late games on Sunday featuring five of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Yes, four teams, five terrible quarterbacks. We, the fans, were "treated" to the poo-poo shit platter of Blaine Gabbert-Chad Henne-Carson Palmer-Mark Sanchez-Tim Tebow. Very poor planning by the suits on Park Avenue. On a related note, how on Earth does anyone in the Jags' front office still have a job? Gabbert and Henne are your top two quarterbacks? Really? Clean house, Shad Khan.
This play summarizes my thoughts perfectly.
The Jags had 4th and 1 in Oakland territory late in the first half. For some
inexplicable reason, they decide to roll the notoriously immobile Henne out of the pocket. Instead of
trying to force a throw and possibly a completion down the field, he throws the
ball OUT OF BOUNDS!! On 4th down! Who cares if it’s intercepted? It’s laughable
how bad that team is.
11. I know the Lions will beat the Bears, 28-25 tomorrow night. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson shine under the lights and keep their pre-bye week momentum going.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the
untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is
my favorite article each week.
Regular readers are familiar with my Separated at Birth segment (please keep sending suggestions), but it's time to unveil a new idea: Perfect Combo. Put simply, it's a person that reminds me of a perfect combination of two other people.
I'll admit this isn't the best way to start off because I don't have pictures available of two of the three people involved, but just trust me this is a good idea.
X Factor's Jason Brock is a Perfect Combo of pre-skinny Rob Giesecke and Bill Vastardis('s hair).
Only a few people know these individuals, but I'm not sure I could have a more Perfect Combo.
The Good:
-Went 9-3 overall
-Making money in both college and pro football. Always a good week when that happens.
-Aaron Rodgers responding to my calling him out with a monster performance. Welcome back.
-Louisiana Tech fighting back for a borderline-miracle cover despite being down 27 in the first half. Loved that.
-The Saints had a bye week and watched the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers, and Cardinals all lose. Just get to the playoffs baby.
The (Very) Bad:
-West Virginia losing outright to Texas Tech. It was bad enough they couldn't cover but losing the game crushed their (any my) BCS hopes
-San Diego choking away a 24-point halftime lead which cost me the game and hurts my Broncos under 8.5 wins bet. Double whammy.
"Avoid road favorites like the plague" is usually my MO, but I'm going completely against my own advice this week and hoping not to jinx myself.
College Football
Oregon -9.5 (at Arizona State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Iowa State +14 (at Oklahoma State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Miami +21 (vs Florida State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Tennessee +21 (vs Alabama): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
Teaser- Oregon Pk (at Arizona State) with Michigan Pk (vs Michigan State) with South Carolina +13 (at Florida): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.0 units
NFL
Seahawks +7 (at 49ers): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units Push
Ravens +6 (at Texans): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Cowboys -1.5 (at Panthers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Saints -3 (at Bucs): 2.5 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Oregon Pk (at Arizona State) with Packers +4.5 (at St Louis) with Patriots -0.5 (vs Jets): 6.0 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC:2.5 units to win 43.8 units Yes, I now have three of the 16 NFC teams to win the conference
EPL
Stoke City +1.5 (at ManU): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Everton -0.5 (at QPR): 2.5 units to win 2.8 units L - 2.5 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units
Made some units in real football, lost some in English football.
Highlights:
-the Patriots victory - my highest conviction game of the week - was big;
-West Virginia came up huge as they won by three points (I teased Texas to +3.5) staying in the Big 12 and BCS title hunt, nicely done Mountaineers
Lowlights:
-right before kickoff on Sunday, the Bengals dropped to -3. I wasn't even thinking of making a play on this game but thought that price was impossible to pass up
-Northwestern pulling a typical Northwestern move and choking away a game in the fourth quarter
College Football
Pittsburgh +3 (vs Louisville): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Oklahoma -3 (vs Texas): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Wisconsin +2 (at Purdue): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Miami FL +7 (vs North Carolina): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
West Virginia -4 (at Texas Tech): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Stanford +9 (at Notre Dame): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Louisiana Tech +8 (vs Texas A&M): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Rutgers +3 (vs Syracuse) with Kansas State +3.5 (at Iowa State) with USC -3 (at Washington): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
NFL
St. Louis +3.5 (at Miami): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Detroit +4.5 (at Philly): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Green Bay +4 (at Houston): 4.4 units to win 4.0 units W - 4.0 units
San Diego -2 (vs Denver): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units
1. I know that now is the time to admit that I was wrong about Andrew Luck. This dude is seriously talented and has done the impossible, revitalized a downtrodden Indianapolis franchise. This week's victory over the Packers may have been the game of the year, and the Colts have Luck to thank. Sure, he made some mistakes and missed some open receivers but he brought his team back from a 21-3 first half deficit and a 27-22 fourth quarter deficit. After all the pre-draft hype, I thought Luck was overrated, but amazingly he has lived up to the billing so far and the future looks unbelievably bright in Indy. Chuck Pagano is smiling.
2. I know I cannot figure Cam Newton out. Last year's top pick is an enigma to me and probably anyone else following the NFL. He was terrible two weeks ago, very good last week, and then awful again today with the lowlight coming on 4th-and-1 from the 1-yard line and under five minutes left in the game when he short-armed a wide open receiver with what would have been a lead-changing touchdown. Very confusing.
3. I know the Vikings can win the NFC North. The Packers look like the unluckiest team in football, the Lions can't play defense or special teams, and the Bears really cannot play offense (although the defense scores enough touchdowns they might not need to). Their next five games are very winnable: at Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, at Seattle, Detroit. Then they play Chicago two out of three weeks after that. Can Christian Ponder keep up this Trent Dilfer-esque performance going? Sure. Speaking of the Pack, they need to travel to Houston to take on the undefeated Texans next week.
4. I know the Bengals are a fraud. They beat Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville and fooled a whole lot of people into believing they were actually a good football team. For some reason, these people, myself included, overlooked an opening week blowout in Baltimore. After losing at home to a poor to very poor Miami team, I am ready to write this team off as being any kind of threat this season.
5. I know the Rams, Cardinals, Ravens, and Chiefs set organized offensive football back about 20 years. The Jaguars and Titans were equally as pathetic but at least the Bears and Rams showed some semblance of a clue in those games. It's hard to fathom how terrible Blaine Gabbert really is.
6. I know I love when people with the same name play each other. This week we had: Kyle Williams (Buffalo) vs Kyle Williams (San Fran); Gronkowski (Denver) vs Gronkowski (New England); and James Franklin (Vanderbilt head coach) vs James Franklin (Missouri QB). Good times.
7. I know the Steelers got a much, much, much needed victory at home against the Eagles. Falling 2.5 games behind Baltimore would have been a huge hole, but they remain within striking distance. Rashard Mendenhall looked pretty good in his return and offers a little balance to a team that was too reliant on the pass.
8. I know that either sharps or Chad Millman are lying. There is no way that sharps always move the line in a direction that favors them; however, according to his tweets every Sunday, it appears that every single line the sharps got early (ie before the betting public) did just that as they got better numbers than what was available at gametime. I will be rooting against the sharps until this stupid pattern stops:
9. I know I liked: Ryan Kerrigan's TAINT (high grades for athleticism); the old guards (Reggie Wayne and Tony Gonzalez) can still play; Josh Gordon and Victor Cruz making the most of their combined seven catches, scoring five touchdowns; Donal Brown's two-point conversion celebration which included the discount double check and the Raji dance; Peyton Manning losing.
10. I know I didn't like: Chris Johnson's effort; thinking Tennessee would be good this year; the Vikings giving the ball to Toby Gerhart on 3rd-and-1 instead of Adrian Peterson; the 49ers using Colin Kaepernick as a running back; Kansas City fans booing an injured Matt Cassel (they had plenty of time to boo him when he sucked); the clutchness of Mason Crosby; Jon Beason being injured, again; RG III being injured.
11. I know the Texans will beat the Jets, 74 to -6. Yes, -6. I cannot watch Mark Sanchez for much longer.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the
untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is
my favorite article each week.
This has been a great weekend of sports with college football and the baseball playoffs in full swing with a nice slate of NFL games coming today.
-Friday started with the nonsensical infield fly ruling. How on Earth would they have turned a double play from short left field? Wouldn't happen so the rule should not have been enforced. Even worse than the call itself was the media trying to explain it by saying umpire Sam Holbrook was not used to being positioned in left field which caused his mistake? What?? That's one of the most pathetic excuses I have ever heard. This guy is a professional umpire. Being 50 feet away from where he is normally stationed made him make an awful call? Come on, man!
-Later that night, the never say die Orioles started Joe Saunders, yes that Joe Saunders in a must-win game. What happened? Of course, they won. This team can do nothing wrong right now despite having the most no-named pitching staff in playoff baseball history. Name three members of their starting rotation... still waiting...still waiting.... Buck Showalter is a magician.
-On Saturday, Matt McGloin, aka "the worst starting quarterback in college football", covered a 3-point spread costing me a few dollars units.I'm happy for Penn State and Bill O'Brien but watching McGloin succeed really irritates me. His touchdown dive and celebration combo were laughably pathetic, almost as pathetic as Northwestern's fourth quarter defense which surrendered an 11-point lead to McGloin and Co. I like Pat Fitzgerald and always root for the Wildcats, but this guy needs to win a big game at some point, right?
-Can Rutgers be this year's BCS buster? They are 5-0 after beating UConn and don't face a ranked opponent until November 29th when they host Louisville in their season finale. Could a 12-0 Rutgers play for the BCS title? Very doubtful but you never know.
-Gene Chizik must feel like Cam Newton graduated, err left school, 7 years ago. It's been less than two but his seat is getting HOT at Auburn.
-Your 2012 Fraud of the Year: Virginia Tech. I thought these guys were supposed to be good. (Please do not let the Jets spend a high first round pick on QB Logan Thomas. Have some mercy on me.)
-How about those Mountaineers? West Virginia was my pick to win the BCS title this year and so far so good.
-There were three matchups featuring two top-11 teams yesterday. The aforementioned Mountaineers survived Texas 48-45; Florida squeaked by LSU in a snoozer, 14-6; and South Carolina destroyed Georgia.
-The upset of the year so far occurred in Raleigh when NC State knocked off #3 Florida State. Patting myself on the back alert: I have now teased two 14.5 point underdogs in the last three weeks that have won outright (Kansas State over Oklahoma and NC State last night).
-To recap, the numbers 3, 4, and 5 teams all lost yesterday.
-Also Memphis won for only the fourth time since October 10, 2009! Good for them.
-As a nightcap, both baseball teams I was rooting for - the Tigers and Reds - won.
I love seeing my season records for all three sports in the black.
A sweep of the college football and EPL slates on Saturday got us off to a nice start, and a last-minute parlay hit sealed a great week (+21.9 units). It might be a little early to write off my Browns and Chiefs division champ futures, but I'll give that a few more weeks to play out.
Geno Smith has West Virginia looking incredible on offense, but that defense is a-tro-cious, and no one seems to be talking about it. We'll see what kind of team they are over the next few games.
College Football
Northwestern +3 (at Penn State): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Oklahoma -4.5 (at Texas Tech): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Clemson Pk (vs Georgia Tech) with NC State +24.5 (vs Florida State) with Texas +3.5 (vs West Virginia): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
NFL
Eagles +3.5 (at Steelers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Panthers -3 (vs Seahawks): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Bengals -3 (vs Dolphins): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
Patriots -7 (vs Broncos): 5.5 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units
Chargers +3.5 (at Saints): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Teaser- 49ers Pk (vs Buffalo) with Patriots +3 (vs Denver) with Giants Pk (vs Cleveland): 6.0 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units
EPL
West Brom W (vs QPR): 3.1 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Swansea City W (vs Reading): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
West Ham +0.5 goals (vs Arsenal): 3.1 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.1 units
Stoke City +1 goal (at Liverpool): 2.5 units to win 2.6 units W - 2.6 units
Newcastle / Manchester United over 3 goals: 2.5 units to win 2.6 units Push
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
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