Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Guessing The Spreads of Bowl Games

I have made a concerted effort not to look at the spreads for the bowl games. Despite my trying, I saw four so I will avoid those games in this post: South Carolina-Michigan, Florida State-Northern Illinois, Oregon-Kansas State, and Alabama-Notre Dame.

Here are my best guesses at what the spreads should be for the a handful of the other games:

New Mexico Bowl - Arizona -6 over Nevada. The over/under in this one might be near 80 as neither team plays defense, and both can light up the scoreboard. The Wildcats get the edge because they come from the better known conference and actually played some decent competition this year. The Wolfpack have lost four of their last five coming in too.

Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State -7 over Toledo. Just a few weeks ago, Toledo had dreams of crashing the BCS party. Instead, they lost two of their last three and end up in Idaho instead of Miami. Utah State on the other hand has won six straight and scored at least 38 points in every game of that streak. Interesting to note that neither team lost a game by more than a touchdown this year. I will be jumping on the Aggies here at any number 7 or below.

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State -4 over BYU. This is a home game for the Aztecs who are winners of seven straight games, including a road victory at Boise State. The Cougars proved they weren't intimidated of going on the road when they played Notre Dame extremely tightly in South Bend. I'm staying away from this one unless my spread is way off.

Beef O Brady Bowl - Central Florida -6 over Ball State. Another bowl game with a clear homefield advantage as this one will be played in St. Petersburg, FL, but I actually think the Cardinals can spring the upset. Central Florida could have been in a better bowl (Liberty) if they had beaten Tulsa in the conference title game. Instead they stay home to play an inferior opponent. Where's the motivation? I don't see it. I hope this spread is bigger than I am predicting here.

New Orleans Bowl - Louisiana Lafayette -3 vs East Carolina. ECU went 7-0 against teams that weren't bowl eligible and 0-4 against teams that were. They are a fraud. Game is in NOLA which gives the Ragin' Cajuns the edge.

(Crying baby)


(Crying baby)

Thought I had more time than I did to write this article. Going to list format:

Boise State -6 over Washington
Fresno State -12 over SMU
Western Kentucky who cares over Central Michigan
San Jose State -7 over Bowling Green
Cincinnati -7 over Duke: Would be higher but the game is in North Carolina
UCLA -1 over Baylor: Homefield advantage for the Bruins
Louisiana Monroe -7 over Ohio
Rutgers -3 over Virginia Tech
Texas Tech -9 over Minnesota
Rice who cares over Air Force
West Virginia -7 over Syracuse
Arizona State -6 over Navy
Texas -3 over Oregon State: Homefield advantage for the Longhorns
TCU -6 over Michigan State
Vanderbilt -6 over NC State
USC -9 over Georgia Tech: Mostly on reputation
Tulsa -3 over Iowa State
LSU -4.5 over Clemson
Mississippi State -3 over Northwestern
Oklahoma State -13 over Purdue
Georgia -9 over Nebraska
Stanford -8 over Wisconsin
Florida -13 over Louisville
Texas A&M -3 over Oklahoma
Ole Miss -3 over Pitt: This is Pitt's third straight trip to Birmingham. Zero motivation here.
Arkansas State -1 over Kent State

 I'll check back tomorrow to see how I did.

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