1. Phoenix Suns: DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona
2. Sacramento Kings: Marvin Bagley III, F, Duke
3. Atlanta Hawks: Luka Doncic, SG, Real Madrid - I'm not sure the Hawks will be the ones making this selection, but I think Doncic will be the pick at 3. I don't trust rumors 24-48 hours before the draft, and the Doncic-to-the-Hawks rumors have been flying recently which makes me think it's the Hawks leaking this information in hopes that they can make a trade (maybe to offload the Schroeder contract).
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri
5. Dallas Mavericks: Jaren Jackson Jr, F, Michigan State
6. Orlando Magic: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
7. Chicago Bulls: Mo Bamba, C, Texas
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
9. New York Knicks: Kevin Knox, F, Kentucky
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, F, Villanova
11. Charlotte Hornets: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
12. Los Angeles Clippers: Wendell Carter, PF, Duke - Every year a guy slips, and unfortunately for Carter, I think he's the guy this year. Why? The stigma associated with old-school centers.
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M
14. Denver Nuggets: Miles Bridges, G/F, Michigan State
I wanted to get Lonnie Walker and Zhaire Smith into the lottery but did not see a spot. It wouldn't shock me at all if they land in the top 14 though.
Trades that make sense:
[WARNING: Please digest your food before reading the remainder of this post; there are some ugly contracts here.]
Knicks give Joakim Noah, 9th pick, 37th pick to get Deandre Jordan (from LAC), 19th pick (from ATL)
Clippers give Deandre Jordan, 13th pick to get Dennis Schroeder (from ATL), Malcom Delaney (from ATL), 9th pick (from NYK), 37th pick (from NYK)
Hawks give Dennis Schroeder, Malcom Delaney, 19th pick to get Joakim Noah (from NYK), 13th pick (from LAC)
Knicks get out from the disastrous Noah contract and pick up an asset in Jordan that helps them win now (he's a FA after the season). This deal saves them about $13m and makes the Knicks players in the 2019 free agent market where they can build around The Unicorn, Ntilikina, Hardaway Jr, and the 19th pick. This is a path to moderate contention in 2018-19 with more hope thereafter.
The Clippers have to believe in Schroeder to make this deal work, but if they do, they move up four spots to potentialy get a guy like Mo Bamba or Wendell Carter who replaces Jordan while also getting an early second rounder. For the record, I'm least sold on the Clippers haul from this deal.
The Hawks swap three more years of a bad Schroeder deal for two more years of a bad Noah deal while moving themselves into the back part of the lottery. Luka Doncic-John Collins-and the 13th pick form a nice nucleus for 2020. Add in a very high pick at the top of next year's draft and there's hope again in ATL.
Three team trades are tough enough so the chances it happens are infinitesimal so while we are at it, let's ADD another team:
Knicks give Joakim Noah, 9th pick, 37th pick to get Deandre Jordan (from LAC), 19th pick (from ATL)
Clippers give Deandre Jordan, 12th pick to get Dennis Schroeder (from ATL), Malcom Delaney (from ATL), 3rd pick (from ATL)
Hawks give Dennis Schroeder, Malcom Delaney, 3rd pick, 19th pick to get Chandler Parsons (from MEM), 4th pick (from MEM) 12th pick (from LAC)
Memphis gives Chandler Parsons, 4th pick to get Joakim Noah (from NYK), 9th pick (from NYK), 37th pick (from NYK)
Memphis is new to this deal; they would offload two years of Parsons for two years of Noah which saves them about $13m but sees them drop from 4 to 9. They would also acquire the 37th pick.
The Clippers move all the way to 3 in this scenario (which makes it more appealing than the 3-team trade above) while Atlanta would move from 13 to 12 as a small consoloation for taking on the Parsons contract instead of the Noah deal but also from 3 to 4.
The Hawks would have to send the Grizzlies a cheap contract (think a few hundred thousand dollars) to make this work.
Never hapening but if it did, the lottery would absolutely, 100% look like this:
1. Phoenix Suns: DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona
2. Sacramento Kings: Marvin Bagley III, F, Duke
3. Los Angeles Clippers: Luka Doncic, SG, Real Madrid
4. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr, F, Michigan State
5. Dallas Mavericks: Mo Bamba, C, Texas
6. Orlando Magic: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
7. Chicago Bulls: Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
9. Memphis Grizzlies: Wendell Carter, PF, Duke
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, F, Villanova
11. Charlotte Hornets: Kevin Knox, F, Kentucky
12. Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M
14. Denver Nuggets: Miles Bridges, G/F, Michigan State
Thursday, June 21, 2018
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