Here's my list of players that would make me happiest if the Jets took them in Round 1:
1. Tristan Wirfs
2. Jedrick Wills, Jr
3. Andrew Thomas
4. CJ Henderson ($$$$$)
5. CeeDee Lamb
6. Jerry Jeudy
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
NFL Draft: Crazy Ideas That Ya Heard Here First
The Draft is just two days away! Sports!?!? Finally! I don't have time to dive into each of these scenarios but ya heard it here first:
1. The Dolphins don't like any of the QBs at the top of this draft. They'll take three non-QBs in Round 1.
2. The 49ers - who everyone expects to trade back - will actually trade UP in the first round.
3. The Chargers will use the 6th pick on an offensive lineman or wide receiver. This team is very good already. Let's play for 2020. Ewing Theory with Phil Rivers?
4. Dave Gettleman will nail this draft. Nah, nevermind.
5. Tampa Bay will trade up for Justin Jefferson to play the slot? That would be an incredible group of receivers - Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, and JJ? Yes, please.
6. Only two quarterbacks will get taken in Round 1. Gimme Joe and Tua.
7. The Jets are going to trade Jamal Adams. And if the return is the Cowboys 1st (17th overall) and 2nd (49) picks, I will talk myself into liking the deal.
1. The Dolphins don't like any of the QBs at the top of this draft. They'll take three non-QBs in Round 1.
2. The 49ers - who everyone expects to trade back - will actually trade UP in the first round.
3. The Chargers will use the 6th pick on an offensive lineman or wide receiver. This team is very good already. Let's play for 2020. Ewing Theory with Phil Rivers?
4. Dave Gettleman will nail this draft. Nah, nevermind.
5. Tampa Bay will trade up for Justin Jefferson to play the slot? That would be an incredible group of receivers - Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, and JJ? Yes, please.
6. Only two quarterbacks will get taken in Round 1. Gimme Joe and Tua.
7. The Jets are going to trade Jamal Adams. And if the return is the Cowboys 1st (17th overall) and 2nd (49) picks, I will talk myself into liking the deal.
Monday, April 20, 2020
[Updated on April 20] NFL Draft Prop Bets
Updated on April 20
As I mentioned in the mock draft, there is no way that anyone has a firm hold on what is going to happen in this draft. There are going to be big surprises early and often. Let's try to take advantage with these mostly longshot props:
Justin Jefferson first WR taken, 50 units/to win 2000 - At 40/1 (it's actually up at 50/1 at many books), I'll take the chance that someone prefers production over upside.
Jets take CJ Henderson with their first pick, 50 units/1875 - My rationale is laid out in the mock.
Harrison Bryant first TE taken, 25 units/500 - This is probably my favorite value on the board. The way I look at it, all of these tight ends are in the same third round-ish grouping. It may not happen in this draft, but if we re-did the draft 20 times, this guy is the first TE taken on more than occasion. You can't convince me otherwise. Love the value.
Antoine Winfield first S taken, 50 units/400 - Again, for guys "ranked" within 10 spots in the major publications, why is McKinney so much of a bigger favorite than Winfield (or even Delpit)?
Alabama players taken in first round under 5.5, 62 units/49 - Wills, Tua, Jeudy, and Ruggs are locks, but I'm not convinced that any other Bama players go in round 1. This number could get up to 7 so high risk of looking very dumb here but I'm taking my chances.
Jeff Okudah taken with third pick, 25 units/87 - I made this bet right when it hit the board, and I sort of regret it already. Lions have to trade down out of this spot... but if they don't I think Okudah is their guy.
Eagles take someone NOT named Jefferson, Ruggs, Mims, Reagor, Higgins, Jeudy, Lamb, McKinney, Delpit, Queen, Ruiz, Murray, Henderson, Gladney, 25 units/250 - Gimme Antoine Winfield here as the first safety off the board, and I win two bets! Let's go. (Or Brandon Aiyuk works too).
Chase Young pick over 2.5, 35 units/385: There has to be a one on 10 chance that a team trades up to the second pick to grab a QB, right?
Ohio State players taken in first round over 2.5, 25 units/112: Chase Young and Okudah are locks. Then I'm hoping one of JK Dobbins, Damon Arnette, Jonah Jackson, or Malik Harrison to go late on Day 1. Again, this draft will have surprises everywhere. I'm just hoping one of them is wearing a Buckeye.
Keep checking back for more picks.
As I mentioned in the mock draft, there is no way that anyone has a firm hold on what is going to happen in this draft. There are going to be big surprises early and often. Let's try to take advantage with these mostly longshot props:
Justin Jefferson first WR taken, 50 units/to win 2000 - At 40/1 (it's actually up at 50/1 at many books), I'll take the chance that someone prefers production over upside.
Jets take CJ Henderson with their first pick, 50 units/1875 - My rationale is laid out in the mock.
Harrison Bryant first TE taken, 25 units/500 - This is probably my favorite value on the board. The way I look at it, all of these tight ends are in the same third round-ish grouping. It may not happen in this draft, but if we re-did the draft 20 times, this guy is the first TE taken on more than occasion. You can't convince me otherwise. Love the value.
Antoine Winfield first S taken, 50 units/400 - Again, for guys "ranked" within 10 spots in the major publications, why is McKinney so much of a bigger favorite than Winfield (or even Delpit)?
Alabama players taken in first round under 5.5, 62 units/49 - Wills, Tua, Jeudy, and Ruggs are locks, but I'm not convinced that any other Bama players go in round 1. This number could get up to 7 so high risk of looking very dumb here but I'm taking my chances.
Jeff Okudah taken with third pick, 25 units/87 - I made this bet right when it hit the board, and I sort of regret it already. Lions have to trade down out of this spot... but if they don't I think Okudah is their guy.
Eagles take someone NOT named Jefferson, Ruggs, Mims, Reagor, Higgins, Jeudy, Lamb, McKinney, Delpit, Queen, Ruiz, Murray, Henderson, Gladney, 25 units/250 - Gimme Antoine Winfield here as the first safety off the board, and I win two bets! Let's go. (Or Brandon Aiyuk works too).
Chase Young pick over 2.5, 35 units/385: There has to be a one on 10 chance that a team trades up to the second pick to grab a QB, right?
Ohio State players taken in first round over 2.5, 25 units/112: Chase Young and Okudah are locks. Then I'm hoping one of JK Dobbins, Damon Arnette, Jonah Jackson, or Malik Harrison to go late on Day 1. Again, this draft will have surprises everywhere. I'm just hoping one of them is wearing a Buckeye.
Keep checking back for more picks.
Monday, April 13, 2020
NFL Mock Draft 1.0
I love me some mock drafts. Usually, I can't get enough of them. The issue this year is that they all look the same, and nothing has changed in months. I cannot believe that everyone knew months ago how this draft would play out. My guess is that we are in for a number of surprises. Let's see if I can nail a couple of them.
Round 1
1. CINCINNATI BENGALS: QB JOE BURROW, LSU - No surprises just yet.
2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: DE CHASE YOUNG, OHIO STATE - Still waiting...
3. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (via Detroit): QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA - Let's go! It will cost them the 6th and 37th picks this year and next year's first rounder, but there are so many reasons this deal makes sense for the Chargers (they need fans, Tua is a stud, he won't be there at 6, they will be better next year so the first rounder won't be as painful). Pay the price. Go get Tua.
4. NEW YORK GIANTS: LB ISAIAH SIMMONS, CLEMSON - Gettleman has started to address the linebacking corps, but Simmons is a freak. Everyone else has o-line here.
5. MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON
6. DETROIT LIONS (via LAC): CB JEFFREY OKUDAH, OHIO STATE - Love it when a trade down works to perfection. Detroit has to be considering Okudah at 3. Now they get him and a suite of picks.
7. MIAMI DOLPHINS (via Carolina): OT MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE - Traid alert! The Dolphins got their QB at 5; now they protect him for years to come. The Panthers get picks 18 and 26 for their troubles.
8. ARIZONA CARDINALS: OT TRISTAN WIRFS, IOWA
9. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (via Jacksonville): OT JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA - The Bradys move up to protect their new QB in exchange for picks 14 and 45.
10. CLEVELAND BROWNS: OT ANDREW THOMAS, GEORGIA - The run of stud offensive linemen comes to a finish here.
11. NEW YORK JETS: CB C.J. HENDERSON, FLORIDA - The vast majority of mock drafts have slotted a wide receiver to the Jets here at 11. I don't disagree that it's a position of need; my issue is that this is one of the deepest wideout groups we have seen in years. There will be plenty of value in later rounds to address that need. It's a similar story with offensive linemen. So, let's give the Jets a player that is at the top of the class in a shallow position group that fills a position of need. Then the Jets can go OL (Tyler Biadasz in Round 2?) and WR (Michael Pittman or Tyler Johnson in Round 3?) later in the draft. In a dream scenario, the Jets would trade down a few slots and pick up some more assets and still nab Henderson.
12. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: QB JORDAN LOVE, UTAH STATE - Mayock and Gruden have been suspiciously quiet leading up to this draft. I think something is brewing.
13. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (via Indianapolis): WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU - My biggest surprise of the round would be this JJ as the first wide receiver off the board. This could end up looking really bad when he ends up as the sixth WR taken but you can find 55-1 odds out there that he will be the first WR taken.
14. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via Tampa Bay): DT DERRICK BROWN, AUBURN - Brown is in play for the Jags at 9. Getting him here plus the 45th pick would be a coup.
15. DENVER BRONCOS: WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA - John Elway would be doing backflips if Jeudy drops to 15.
16. ATLANTA FALCONS: DE K’LAVON CHAISSON, LSU
17. DALLAS COWBOYS: WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA - Jerry Jones will not be able to pass on this physical freak even if WR isn't the biggest position of need.
18. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Pittsburgh via Miami): DT JAVON KINLAW, SOUTH CAROLINA
19. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (via Chicago): WR HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA - Are we sure this guy isn't just John Ross 2.0? He had 40 catches last year. 209 players had more. I know this isn't a quantity contest but this guy should have been way more dominant with this skill set than just having 40 catches.
20. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via LAR): CB KRISTIAN FULTON, LSU
21. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: LB PATRICK QUEEN, LSU - Every mock I have seen has Philly going WR here (usually Justin Jefferson). I'm not buying it.
22. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (via Buffalo): CB TREVON DIGGS, ALABAMA - No pick in the first round would make me as happy as the Vikings using the 22nd selection - which they acquired in exchange for Stefon Diggs - on his brother. [Folds hands in prayer]
23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: C CESAR RUIZ, MICHIGAN [Insert boring 10x All-Pro here]
24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: WR DENZEL MIMS, BAYLOR - Drew Brees can't play forever so let's get him some weapons while he's here.
25. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CB JAYLON JOHNSON, UTAH - Quick way to revamp the secondary.
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Miami): S ANTOINE WINFIELD JR, MINNESOTA - Another surprise here with Winfield being the first safety off the board.
27. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: OT AUSTIN JACKSON, USC
28. BALTIMORE RAVENS: OT JOSH JONES, HOUSTON
29. TENNESSEE TITANS: DE A.J. EPENESA, IOWA
30. GREEN BAY PACKERS: WR BRANDON AIYUK, ARIZONA STATE
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DE YETUR GROSS-MATOS, PENN STATE
32. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S XAVIER MCKINNEY, ALABAMA
Round 1
1. CINCINNATI BENGALS: QB JOE BURROW, LSU - No surprises just yet.
2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: DE CHASE YOUNG, OHIO STATE - Still waiting...
3. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (via Detroit): QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA - Let's go! It will cost them the 6th and 37th picks this year and next year's first rounder, but there are so many reasons this deal makes sense for the Chargers (they need fans, Tua is a stud, he won't be there at 6, they will be better next year so the first rounder won't be as painful). Pay the price. Go get Tua.
4. NEW YORK GIANTS: LB ISAIAH SIMMONS, CLEMSON - Gettleman has started to address the linebacking corps, but Simmons is a freak. Everyone else has o-line here.
5. MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON
6. DETROIT LIONS (via LAC): CB JEFFREY OKUDAH, OHIO STATE - Love it when a trade down works to perfection. Detroit has to be considering Okudah at 3. Now they get him and a suite of picks.
7. MIAMI DOLPHINS (via Carolina): OT MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE - Traid alert! The Dolphins got their QB at 5; now they protect him for years to come. The Panthers get picks 18 and 26 for their troubles.
8. ARIZONA CARDINALS: OT TRISTAN WIRFS, IOWA
9. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (via Jacksonville): OT JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA - The Bradys move up to protect their new QB in exchange for picks 14 and 45.
10. CLEVELAND BROWNS: OT ANDREW THOMAS, GEORGIA - The run of stud offensive linemen comes to a finish here.
11. NEW YORK JETS: CB C.J. HENDERSON, FLORIDA - The vast majority of mock drafts have slotted a wide receiver to the Jets here at 11. I don't disagree that it's a position of need; my issue is that this is one of the deepest wideout groups we have seen in years. There will be plenty of value in later rounds to address that need. It's a similar story with offensive linemen. So, let's give the Jets a player that is at the top of the class in a shallow position group that fills a position of need. Then the Jets can go OL (Tyler Biadasz in Round 2?) and WR (Michael Pittman or Tyler Johnson in Round 3?) later in the draft. In a dream scenario, the Jets would trade down a few slots and pick up some more assets and still nab Henderson.
12. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: QB JORDAN LOVE, UTAH STATE - Mayock and Gruden have been suspiciously quiet leading up to this draft. I think something is brewing.
13. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (via Indianapolis): WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU - My biggest surprise of the round would be this JJ as the first wide receiver off the board. This could end up looking really bad when he ends up as the sixth WR taken but you can find 55-1 odds out there that he will be the first WR taken.
14. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via Tampa Bay): DT DERRICK BROWN, AUBURN - Brown is in play for the Jags at 9. Getting him here plus the 45th pick would be a coup.
15. DENVER BRONCOS: WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA - John Elway would be doing backflips if Jeudy drops to 15.
16. ATLANTA FALCONS: DE K’LAVON CHAISSON, LSU
17. DALLAS COWBOYS: WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA - Jerry Jones will not be able to pass on this physical freak even if WR isn't the biggest position of need.
18. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Pittsburgh via Miami): DT JAVON KINLAW, SOUTH CAROLINA
19. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (via Chicago): WR HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA - Are we sure this guy isn't just John Ross 2.0? He had 40 catches last year. 209 players had more. I know this isn't a quantity contest but this guy should have been way more dominant with this skill set than just having 40 catches.
20. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via LAR): CB KRISTIAN FULTON, LSU
21. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: LB PATRICK QUEEN, LSU - Every mock I have seen has Philly going WR here (usually Justin Jefferson). I'm not buying it.
22. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (via Buffalo): CB TREVON DIGGS, ALABAMA - No pick in the first round would make me as happy as the Vikings using the 22nd selection - which they acquired in exchange for Stefon Diggs - on his brother. [Folds hands in prayer]
23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: C CESAR RUIZ, MICHIGAN [Insert boring 10x All-Pro here]
24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: WR DENZEL MIMS, BAYLOR - Drew Brees can't play forever so let's get him some weapons while he's here.
25. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CB JAYLON JOHNSON, UTAH - Quick way to revamp the secondary.
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Miami): S ANTOINE WINFIELD JR, MINNESOTA - Another surprise here with Winfield being the first safety off the board.
27. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: OT AUSTIN JACKSON, USC
28. BALTIMORE RAVENS: OT JOSH JONES, HOUSTON
29. TENNESSEE TITANS: DE A.J. EPENESA, IOWA
30. GREEN BAY PACKERS: WR BRANDON AIYUK, ARIZONA STATE
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DE YETUR GROSS-MATOS, PENN STATE
32. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S XAVIER MCKINNEY, ALABAMA
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