[Updated on April 20] NFL Draft Prop Bets

Updated on April 20

As I mentioned in the mock draft, there is no way that anyone has a firm hold on what is going to happen in this draft. There are going to be big surprises early and often. Let's try to take advantage with these mostly longshot props:

Justin Jefferson first WR taken, 50 units/to win 2000 - At 40/1 (it's actually up at 50/1 at many books), I'll take the chance that someone prefers production over upside.

Jets take CJ Henderson with their first pick, 50 units/1875 - My rationale is laid out in the mock.

Harrison Bryant first TE taken, 25 units/500 - This is probably my favorite value on the board. The way I look at it, all of these tight ends are in the same third round-ish grouping. It may not happen in this draft, but if we re-did the draft 20 times, this guy is the first TE taken on more than occasion. You can't convince me otherwise. Love the value.

Antoine Winfield first S taken, 50 units/400 - Again, for guys "ranked" within 10 spots in the major publications, why is McKinney so much of a bigger favorite than Winfield (or even Delpit)?

Alabama players taken in first round under 5.5, 62 units/49 - Wills, Tua, Jeudy, and Ruggs are locks, but I'm not convinced that any other Bama players go in round 1. This number could get up to 7 so high risk of looking very dumb here but I'm taking my chances.

Jeff Okudah taken with third pick, 25 units/87 - I made this bet right when it hit the board, and I sort of regret it already. Lions have to trade down out of this spot... but if they don't I think Okudah is their guy.

Eagles take someone NOT named Jefferson, Ruggs, Mims, Reagor, Higgins, Jeudy, Lamb, McKinney, Delpit, Queen, Ruiz, Murray, Henderson, Gladney, 25 units/250 - Gimme Antoine Winfield here as the first safety off the board, and I win two bets! Let's go. (Or Brandon Aiyuk works too).

Chase Young pick over 2.5, 35 units/385: There has to be a one on 10 chance that a team trades up to the second pick to grab a QB, right?

Ohio State players taken in first round over 2.5, 25 units/112: Chase Young and Okudah are locks. Then I'm hoping one of JK Dobbins, Damon Arnette, Jonah Jackson, or Malik Harrison to go late on Day 1. Again, this draft will have surprises everywhere. I'm just hoping one of them is wearing a Buckeye.


Keep checking back for more picks.