Vegas has set the win over / under lines for the 2009 MLB season. Here are my picks.
Best Bets
Arizona- 86.5 Under: How is this team going to score enough runs to win? Brandon Webb and Dan Haren can only do so much.
Cleveland- 83 Over: As mentioned here, I think they are on their way to the World Series.
Florida- 75.5 Over: The Fish won 84 games last season, lost no primetime players (Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen are all replaceable) and their pitchers now have some experience.
LA Dodgers- 84.5 Over: Once they sign Manny, this number will jump to 88.
Oakland- 81.5 Over: One arm away from 90 wins.
Philadelphia- 87.5 Over: No respect. Not sure why.
Other Overs
Atlanta- 84.5
Baltimore- 74.5
Chicago White Sox- 76.5
Cincinnati- 76.5
Detroit- 79.5
Kansas City- 75.5
Minnesota- 79.5
NY Mets- 90.5
NY Yankees- 96
Pittsburgh- 66.5
San Francisco- 77.5
Seattle- 72.5
St. Louis- 83.5
Tampa Bay- 89.5
Texas- 81.5
Other Unders
Boston- 94.5
Chicago Cubs- 94.5
Colorado- 76.5
Houston- 74.5
LA Angels- 87.5
Milwaukee- 85.5
San Diego- 67.5
Toronto- 81.5
Washington- 68.5
Showing posts with label Oakland A's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oakland A's. Show all posts
Friday, February 20, 2009
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Heyman and I Don't See Eye-to-Eye
It has become pretty evident that Jon Heyman and I agree on very few issues. In a recent article, he graded each team's winter moves. I have a few bones to pick.
Heyman's Top 10 "Winners"
Phillies (1): As Heyman alludes to, the Phillies signed Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard to long-term deals. However, barring a trade, these two had no way out of Philadelphia as the team controlled their arbitration years anyway. They weren't going anywhere. The Phils other "big move" - signing 36-year old Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30 million deal - now looks laughable. This team did not improve that much to warrant the #1 ranking. Ruben Amaro gets a B from me in his first winter as GM.
Mets (2): Sure, the Mets added K-Rod and JJ Putz to help mend a shredded bullpen, but they failed to add any difference-making starters. No, Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia do not qualify. I won't even get started on the ageless Livan Hernandez signing. They also did not address the hole at second base. Luis Castillo will not cut it. Omar Minaya gets a B- from me.
Yankees (3): Any of these lists that does not have the Yankees at the top should be discarded immediately. CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Teixeira in one winter? Unreal. Brian Cashman gets an A+ here.
A's (4): I've detailed Oakland's moves ad nauseam in past posts, but I love the Holliday deal. Billy Beane gets an A.
Diamondbacks (5): Arizona lost Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, and Brandon Lyon and will probably watch Juan Cruz depart via free agency. They must have signed someone or many someones to compensate, right? Heyman ranks the D'backs this high because, "Jon Garland gives them a solid No. 3 starter." Is this some sort of joke? How does that equation yield a positive result? Aside from the fact that Garland has a career WHIP around 1.4 and averages about 4.5 K's/9, the team failed to add anyone else of note. Josh Byrnes gets a D from me.
Rays (6): No arguments here as they added Pat Burrell at a reasonable price and did not lose anyone of note. Andrew Friedman gets a B-.
Giants (7): Stop me when you hear the name of an impact player: Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Edgar Renteria (I said impact not intact), Bobby Howry, Jeremy Affeldt, Randy Johnson. I heard crickets until RJ's name and he'll be 45 years old on Opening Day. Brian Sabean gets a C-, and that's only because he didn't trade Tim Lincecum.
Braves (8): They overspent for Derek Lowe but traded no Major League-ready prospects for Javier Vazquez. Frank Wren gets a B.
Red Sox (9): Again, no arguments as they signed Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis to long-term deals and bought a number of low-risk, high-reward free agents. Theo Epstein gets a B-.
White Sox (10): They lost Vazquez, Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera and added no one of note. Kenny Williams gets a C.
Banter's Top 10 "Winners"
1. Yankees
2. A's
3. Braves
4. Cubs: Added Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg.
5. Indians: Added Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa and took a flier on Carl Pavano.
6. Orioles: Locked up Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts to long-term deals. Dished out no palm-to-the-forehead deals which means a lot in Baltimore.
7. Mariners: Improved the defense and lost Type A free agent Ibanez meaning they get a first round pick as compensation.
8. Phillies
9. Rockies: They can't afford Holliday so getting Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez is a decent return.
10. Mets
Heyman's Top 10 "Winners"
Phillies (1): As Heyman alludes to, the Phillies signed Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard to long-term deals. However, barring a trade, these two had no way out of Philadelphia as the team controlled their arbitration years anyway. They weren't going anywhere. The Phils other "big move" - signing 36-year old Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30 million deal - now looks laughable. This team did not improve that much to warrant the #1 ranking. Ruben Amaro gets a B from me in his first winter as GM.
Mets (2): Sure, the Mets added K-Rod and JJ Putz to help mend a shredded bullpen, but they failed to add any difference-making starters. No, Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia do not qualify. I won't even get started on the ageless Livan Hernandez signing. They also did not address the hole at second base. Luis Castillo will not cut it. Omar Minaya gets a B- from me.
Yankees (3): Any of these lists that does not have the Yankees at the top should be discarded immediately. CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Mark Teixeira in one winter? Unreal. Brian Cashman gets an A+ here.
A's (4): I've detailed Oakland's moves ad nauseam in past posts, but I love the Holliday deal. Billy Beane gets an A.
Diamondbacks (5): Arizona lost Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, and Brandon Lyon and will probably watch Juan Cruz depart via free agency. They must have signed someone or many someones to compensate, right? Heyman ranks the D'backs this high because, "Jon Garland gives them a solid No. 3 starter." Is this some sort of joke? How does that equation yield a positive result? Aside from the fact that Garland has a career WHIP around 1.4 and averages about 4.5 K's/9, the team failed to add anyone else of note. Josh Byrnes gets a D from me.
Rays (6): No arguments here as they added Pat Burrell at a reasonable price and did not lose anyone of note. Andrew Friedman gets a B-.
Giants (7): Stop me when you hear the name of an impact player: Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Edgar Renteria (I said impact not intact), Bobby Howry, Jeremy Affeldt, Randy Johnson. I heard crickets until RJ's name and he'll be 45 years old on Opening Day. Brian Sabean gets a C-, and that's only because he didn't trade Tim Lincecum.
Braves (8): They overspent for Derek Lowe but traded no Major League-ready prospects for Javier Vazquez. Frank Wren gets a B.
Red Sox (9): Again, no arguments as they signed Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis to long-term deals and bought a number of low-risk, high-reward free agents. Theo Epstein gets a B-.
White Sox (10): They lost Vazquez, Nick Swisher and Orlando Cabrera and added no one of note. Kenny Williams gets a C.
Banter's Top 10 "Winners"
1. Yankees
2. A's
3. Braves
4. Cubs: Added Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg.
5. Indians: Added Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa and took a flier on Carl Pavano.
6. Orioles: Locked up Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts to long-term deals. Dished out no palm-to-the-forehead deals which means a lot in Baltimore.
7. Mariners: Improved the defense and lost Type A free agent Ibanez meaning they get a first round pick as compensation.
8. Phillies
9. Rockies: They can't afford Holliday so getting Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez is a decent return.
10. Mets
Saturday, February 14, 2009
MLB - Odds to Win Division
A mere 12 hours after the Banter's Bobby Abreu bashing, oddsmakers unveiled the odds to win each Major League division. And wouldn't you know it, the Angels open up as the largest favorite in any division (-220). One man's way too early breakdown:
AL West: Angels -220; A's +300; Rangers +600; Mariners +1200
This division reminds me of the 2004 election. Did 51% of the country really want another four years of President Bush? Probably not. More likely, many of the voters simply opted not-Kerry. Betting on the Angels would be akin to voting not-Kerry. I'm not ready to go down that path again (yes, I voted for Bush in '04).
Sure, the Angels won the division by 20 games last year, but loyal readers know how dismayed I am with their off season efforts. Complacency does not breed division champions - unless your manager is Bobby Cox. I strongly believe the A's are just one player away from taking this division. Brad Pitt, err, Billy Beane make me look smart.
Pick: A's +300.
AL Central: Twins +175; Indians +200; White Sox +400; Tigers +400; Royals +1500
This division looks ripe for the picking, and the Indians seem most likely to take advantage.
The division favorite Twins have not added or lost any significant players this off season. Apparently, owner Carl Pohlad decided to cut costs and give the entire front office a four-month vacation.
The White Sox lost Javier Vazquez, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede and Ken Griffey, Jr. To compensate, they added... well, some spare parts (Wilson Betemit, Bartolo Colon).
The Tigers, coming off an uber-disappointing last place finish, made some minor changes such as replacing Edgar Renteria with Adam Everett (please, contain your excitement).
The Royals are the Royals.
That leaves us with the Indians who finished 2008 with a .500 record despite dealing CC Sabathia before the deadline. They revamped the bullpen with guys like sidewinder Joe Smith and fireballer Kerry Wood. The Indians also added Mark DeRosa who was disposed of by the Cubs for a reason unbeknown to most. The team underachieved last season and seems poised to take this division running away this season.
Pick: Indians +200.
AL East: Yankees -125; Red Sox +175; Rays +400; Blue Jays +1500; Orioles +4000
Talk all you want about the A-Rod distraction, lack of chemistry, and questionable health of some key contributors (Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada), but the Yankees are clearly the team to beat. Wang, who sports a 54-20 career record, will be the team's third starter. No team in baseball can compete with the Sabathia-Burnett-Wang troika.
Pick: As much as it pains me, Yankees -125.
NL West: Dodgers +140; D'backs +160; Giants +500; Rockies +600; Padres +2000
Once the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez, these odds will drop to -125. Don't wait. Jump on the Dodgers now. They have no competition.
If anyone wants to take the D'backs at +160, forget Vegas, and place your bets with the Banter. This team was decimated during the off season. They lost Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz (presumably), Banter-favorite Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon. They took fliers on Tom Gordon - yes, "Flash" - Jon Garland, Scott Schoeneweis, and Felipe Lopez which wouldn't have been bad if the year were 2003. This will be a long, long season in the desert.
If you are a Giants' fan, I have some good news: Tim Lincecum will be your Opening Day starter. After that, things get murky. The front office failed to address the glaring need: offense. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors last season. Signing Edgar Renteria won't do much to help.
The Rockies would intrigue me a whole lot more if not for the following three matters:
1. Aaron Cook is their #1 starter;
2. They traded their best player, Matt Holliday; and
3. Jeff Francis faces season-ending surgery.
Case closed.
As my mother often told me, "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." (Thinking.... thinking... Got it!) San Diego is a beautiful city. I was always a momma's boy.
Pick: Dodgers +140.
NL Central: Cubs -160; Brewers +500; Cardinals +600; Reds +600; Astros +1300; Pirates +3000
The Brewers lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets leaving Dave Bush to be the team's second starter.
The Reds are MLB's version of the NFL's Detroit Lions. Never interesting, often terrible, and just plain blah. They are a difficult team to get excited about.
The 'stros overachieved last season and figure to regress towards the mean.
The Pirates have a beautiful stadium (thanks, Mom).
That leaves the Cubs and Cards as the only two teams that have a chance of winning this division. Chicago won the division last season by seven games and made only minor changes. They figure to win about 92-94 games. Can St. Louis win more than that? Doubtful, but at +600, I'll take my chances. They have the best hitter in baseball (Albert Pujols) and an ace in Adam Wainwright. I'm also bullish on the idea of Skip Schumaker playing second base.
Pick: Cardinals +600.
NL East: Mets +130; Phillies +160; Braves +450; Marlins +600; Nationals +6000
Both East divisions figure to be very competitive throughout the season. The NL East has four teams capable of winning the division.
The defending Wold Series champion Phillies essentially swapped Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell. The thing that concerns me with this team is the health of Cole Hamels. He threw the most pitches of any Major Leaguer last season. Can he repeat?
The Mets addressed their most glaring weakness, the bullpen, but failed to add an impact starter (although, they did retain Olly Perez). Will it be enough?
The Braves lost John Smoltz but added Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. If Chipper can stay healthy, a big "if," Atlanta can stay competitive.
The Marlins provide a nice value at +600 but lost a lot of talent from last year.
Since Washington remains irrelevant, here's an interesting Nationals-related fact: I was a better pro prospect than my high school teammate John Lannan, who happens to be the Nationals' number two starter.
Pick: Mets +130.
Coming later in the week: Full NL East Preview & World Series Odds breakdown.
AL West: Angels -220; A's +300; Rangers +600; Mariners +1200
This division reminds me of the 2004 election. Did 51% of the country really want another four years of President Bush? Probably not. More likely, many of the voters simply opted not-Kerry. Betting on the Angels would be akin to voting not-Kerry. I'm not ready to go down that path again (yes, I voted for Bush in '04).
Sure, the Angels won the division by 20 games last year, but loyal readers know how dismayed I am with their off season efforts. Complacency does not breed division champions - unless your manager is Bobby Cox. I strongly believe the A's are just one player away from taking this division. Brad Pitt, err, Billy Beane make me look smart.
Pick: A's +300.
AL Central: Twins +175; Indians +200; White Sox +400; Tigers +400; Royals +1500
This division looks ripe for the picking, and the Indians seem most likely to take advantage.
The division favorite Twins have not added or lost any significant players this off season. Apparently, owner Carl Pohlad decided to cut costs and give the entire front office a four-month vacation.
The White Sox lost Javier Vazquez, Nick Swisher, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede and Ken Griffey, Jr. To compensate, they added... well, some spare parts (Wilson Betemit, Bartolo Colon).
The Tigers, coming off an uber-disappointing last place finish, made some minor changes such as replacing Edgar Renteria with Adam Everett (please, contain your excitement).
The Royals are the Royals.
That leaves us with the Indians who finished 2008 with a .500 record despite dealing CC Sabathia before the deadline. They revamped the bullpen with guys like sidewinder Joe Smith and fireballer Kerry Wood. The Indians also added Mark DeRosa who was disposed of by the Cubs for a reason unbeknown to most. The team underachieved last season and seems poised to take this division running away this season.
Pick: Indians +200.
AL East: Yankees -125; Red Sox +175; Rays +400; Blue Jays +1500; Orioles +4000
Talk all you want about the A-Rod distraction, lack of chemistry, and questionable health of some key contributors (Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada), but the Yankees are clearly the team to beat. Wang, who sports a 54-20 career record, will be the team's third starter. No team in baseball can compete with the Sabathia-Burnett-Wang troika.
Pick: As much as it pains me, Yankees -125.
NL West: Dodgers +140; D'backs +160; Giants +500; Rockies +600; Padres +2000
Once the Dodgers sign Manny Ramirez, these odds will drop to -125. Don't wait. Jump on the Dodgers now. They have no competition.
If anyone wants to take the D'backs at +160, forget Vegas, and place your bets with the Banter. This team was decimated during the off season. They lost Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz (presumably), Banter-favorite Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon. They took fliers on Tom Gordon - yes, "Flash" - Jon Garland, Scott Schoeneweis, and Felipe Lopez which wouldn't have been bad if the year were 2003. This will be a long, long season in the desert.
If you are a Giants' fan, I have some good news: Tim Lincecum will be your Opening Day starter. After that, things get murky. The front office failed to address the glaring need: offense. The Giants scored the second-fewest runs in the Majors last season. Signing Edgar Renteria won't do much to help.
The Rockies would intrigue me a whole lot more if not for the following three matters:
1. Aaron Cook is their #1 starter;
2. They traded their best player, Matt Holliday; and
3. Jeff Francis faces season-ending surgery.
Case closed.
As my mother often told me, "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." (Thinking.... thinking... Got it!) San Diego is a beautiful city. I was always a momma's boy.
Pick: Dodgers +140.
NL Central: Cubs -160; Brewers +500; Cardinals +600; Reds +600; Astros +1300; Pirates +3000
The Brewers lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets leaving Dave Bush to be the team's second starter.
The Reds are MLB's version of the NFL's Detroit Lions. Never interesting, often terrible, and just plain blah. They are a difficult team to get excited about.
The 'stros overachieved last season and figure to regress towards the mean.
The Pirates have a beautiful stadium (thanks, Mom).
That leaves the Cubs and Cards as the only two teams that have a chance of winning this division. Chicago won the division last season by seven games and made only minor changes. They figure to win about 92-94 games. Can St. Louis win more than that? Doubtful, but at +600, I'll take my chances. They have the best hitter in baseball (Albert Pujols) and an ace in Adam Wainwright. I'm also bullish on the idea of Skip Schumaker playing second base.
Pick: Cardinals +600.
NL East: Mets +130; Phillies +160; Braves +450; Marlins +600; Nationals +6000
Both East divisions figure to be very competitive throughout the season. The NL East has four teams capable of winning the division.
The defending Wold Series champion Phillies essentially swapped Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell. The thing that concerns me with this team is the health of Cole Hamels. He threw the most pitches of any Major Leaguer last season. Can he repeat?
The Mets addressed their most glaring weakness, the bullpen, but failed to add an impact starter (although, they did retain Olly Perez). Will it be enough?
The Braves lost John Smoltz but added Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. If Chipper can stay healthy, a big "if," Atlanta can stay competitive.
The Marlins provide a nice value at +600 but lost a lot of talent from last year.
Since Washington remains irrelevant, here's an interesting Nationals-related fact: I was a better pro prospect than my high school teammate John Lannan, who happens to be the Nationals' number two starter.
Pick: Mets +130.
Coming later in the week: Full NL East Preview & World Series Odds breakdown.
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