I received an email from ESPN's Keith Law last night regarding the proposed deal. Among other things, he said:
That's an outrageously large haul for San Diego... You're talking about four of the top 100 prospects in the game, probably of the top 75, and it's not like the Rangers are trying to compete in 2009 or like the trade would put them over the top. You're also not discounting Peavy for his elbow issues or down performance in 2008.
I can understand the outrage over San Diego's coup... to a degree; by definition, prospects are not sure things. Look at a list of top prospects from 2005 and you'll see names like Joel Guzman and Andy Marte in most "Top 10" lists. Although still relatively young, both are looking like busts.
Clearly, a major benefit of having a deep farm system is the luxury of dealing some of your best prospects for a proven winner. Jake Peavy is just that.
Peavy is one season removed from a Cy Young year in which he won the pitching Triple Crown. In a "down" year, he still struck out almost a batter an inning (4th in the NL with 8.6 K's per 9), had a WHIP of 1.1, gave up the second fewest hits per game, and finished among the league leaders in Adjusted ERA+. Hard to argue with those results.
Last offseason, the Mariners dealt a more impressive posse to Baltimore in exchange for Erik Bedard. (Bedard was coming off arm trouble at the end of '07 before he was dealt and did not have nearly the track record of Peavy.) Sure, the M's are regretting this now, but for a team that believes it's on the brink of contention, it might be a chance worth taking.
Further, I fail to understand why the three potential contenders in the AL West seem reluctant to grab the division by the proverbial horns.
The A's have made a bit of a play with the Matt Holliday deal, but now they are sitting back and waiting for the leftovers of the OF market to come to them. They probably could have had Rafael Furcal but weren't aggressive enough in their pursuit.
The Angels seem to have buyer's remorse before actually buying anything (or anyone). Doesn't Manny make perfect sense for the Angels or does the signing of Juan Rivera eliminate that possibility (insert joke here)?
The Rangers had the AL's best offense last year, yet, have done nothing this offseason to improve the pitching staff. Does signing Ben Sheets solve all of their problems? Of course not.
Downgrade Main to a lesser prospect if it will make you sleep better at night, but get a deal done, Jon Daniels.
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