Monday, December 29, 2008

Padres - Rangers Trade

Background / Proposal

Put simply, as currently constructed, the San Diego Padres are in no shape to compete in the NL West for at least three years. Their farm system is improving but still lacks the big-time prospects necessary to supplement the major league club. Owner John Moores is actively shopping his team and looking to cut payroll. Now is the time to deal Jake Peavy and Brian Giles (and any other non-core players) with the long-term goal of building around Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley, and Chris Young. Peavy and Giles seem to be the team’s most coveted assets. In return, they figure to bring a slew of prospects.

I propose the following deal:

San Diego would send RHP Jake Peavy, RHP Heath Bell, and OF Brian Giles to the Texas Rangers for RHP Michael Main, 1B Justin Smoak, C Max Ramirez, and SS Elvis Andrus.

Why would San Diego do this deal?

Dealing Peavy, Giles, and Bell would clear approximately $23m of salary off the books for the 2009 season. Additionally, the trade would clear the three years and $50m left on Peavy’s contract after this season. As discussed above, the farm system lacks upper echelon prospects. This deal changes that in a big way.

Michael Main: The Rangers’ top pick in the ’07 draft was considered one of the best high school arms in his class.

Justin Smoak: Owner of the most beautiful left-handed swing since Ken Griffey Jr.

Max Ramirez: The most Major League-ready of the four prospects would split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley.

Elvis Andrus: Has drawn comparisons to Edgar Renteria (in a good way).

Why would Texas do this deal?

Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla are better suited to fill the number three and four slots of the rotation rather than the number one and two slots. Peavy easily slides into the top of the rotation.

It has long been rumored that the Rangers (specifically Nolan Ryan) are interested in signing free agent Ben Sheets. If the rumors are true, and The Ryan Express can lure Sheets to Arlington, the (formidable) rotation would look like this:

1. Peavy (Age on Opening Day 2009: 27)
2. Sheets (30)
3. Kevin Millwood (34)
4. Vicente Padilla (31)
5. TBD

Heath Bell would solidify the pen and would probably be the 8th-inning guy in Texas. Bell has proven capable of filling the 9th-inning role as well meaning if closer CJ Wilson struggled, Ron Washington should have confidence inserting Bell into the role.

Offensively, Giles is an OBP-machine. He rarely strikes out, walks a ton and sports a career Adjusted OPS+ of 139. Giles will be a free agent after the 2009 season meaning the Rangers would only be making a one-year commitment to him and could potentially receive draft pick compensation if he decided to leave. The lineup might look like this:

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (Age on Opening Day 2009: 26)
2. Giles, LF (37)
3. Michael Young, SS (32)
4. Josh Hamilton, CF (27)
5. Hank Blalock, 3B (28)
6. Nelson Cruz, DH (28)
7. Chris Davis, 1B (22)
8. David Murphy, RF (27)
9. Taylor Teagarden, C (25)

With a healthy Kinsler-Giles-Young combo atop the order, Josh Hamilton may eclipse 150 RBIs next season.

Couple the proposed trade above with the signing of Sheets, and the Texas Rangers become the clear favorites in the AL West and serious contenders for the AL Pennant. Most importantly, the deal does not mortgage the future for two reasons. The first is that the Rangers have one of the best farm systems in the league. The second is that the centerpiece of this deal, Peavy, will only be 27 years old on Opening Day.

Other Questions / Considerations / Comments

--Would Peavy and Giles waive their no-trade clauses for a chance to compete for a World Series in the near future? My guess is that it would be harder to convince Giles than Peavy to ok the deal. (Giles had a chance to go to Boston last season but rejected the opportunity.) Peavy was born in Alabama and would have to seriously consider this opportunity.

--Would billionaire owner Tom Hicks be willing to take on $80m+ of contracts? Hicks, the guy who signed A-Rod to his 10-year, $250m contract a few years back, seems like an owner willing to take risks which put his team in better shape to compete for the World Series. After all, since Hicks purchased the team in 1998, the Rangers have not won a single playoff game. An owner can only stay patient so long (exception: William Clay Ford).

--The last major deal these two teams made turned into a laugher: Texas shipped Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Termel Sledge to San Diego for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.

--Would Texas be willing to deal its last two first round picks (Main and Smoak) after spending a combined $4.7m on their signing bonuses? For what it’s worth, in 2007, Texas had two first round picks, and three sandwich picks so all would not be lost.

--The fans in Texas would be ecstatic. In 37 years, the Rangers franchise has won a total of ONE playoff game.

--For the good of the game in each respective city, both teams should consider the deal.

This blog was created to form a medium of exchange where sports fans can share ideas, beliefs, and opinions. The creator has written for a number of websites and has appeared on ESPN Radio as an NFL Draft, MLB Trade Deadline and Fantasy Sports Analyst. He can be reached at


  1. Smoak cannot be traded until next July as he was just drafted. I think the package you proposed above minus Smoak would be what the Padres would seek for Peavy alone. I do think that the Rangers and Padres could get together on some sort of deal if they wanted to.

  2. Correct. Including Smoak by name would not be possible until July. However, I believe the Padres could agree to take a "player to be named later" with the understanding that they could pick one player from a group that included Smoak.