1. (TSB) Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2. (Swagstein) St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.
3. (TSB) Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
4. (Swag) Cleveland Browns: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
5. (TSB) Tampa Bay Bucs: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
6. (Swag) Washington Redskins: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
7. (TSB) Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
8. (Swag) Carolina Panthers: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
9. (TSB) Miami Dolphins: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
10. (Swag) Buffalo Bills: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
11. (TSB) Kansas City Chiefs: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
12. (Swag) Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Note: Even though my 11th pick (Morris
Claiborne) won’t be correct, I feel even better with the rationale now that the
Chiefs have signed Stanford Routt.
13. (TSB) Arizona Cardinals: Michael Brockers, DL, LSU -
Here’s another team in desperate need of a quarterback. Unfortunately, no one
in this year’s class seems worthy of being selected this high so they should
focus on either of their lines. At this spot, I think Brockers offers the best
value. He’s a versatile defensive lineman that could be paired nicely with
Darnell Dockett to clog the interior. If the Cardinals can re-sign free agent
Calais Campbell, this becomes a strength for Arizona.
Commentary (Swag): I like Brockers, think he’s top 10
talent but think this is around where he should go. Defensive tackles have been
going pretty high over the last couple years, most falling flat, this seems
like a perfect spot for Brocker. And not only on the board but the team as
well. If Arizona can control the line of scrimmage in the NFC West, there isn’t
a passing offense to be scared of, could make them an immediate threat in the
division, see: 2011, 49ers, San Francisco.
14. (Swag) Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North
Alabama - The Cowboys have options here, could go with the taller, more
physical, and safer pick with Dre Kirkpatrick out of Alabama, but we’re talking
about the Cowboys and Jerry Jones here, so they’ll obviously go with the
flashier pick and the player with the most off the field issues. Jenkins was a
standout corner at Florida and a lock top-10 pick, but even though he majored
in Social and Behavioral Sciences, he couldn’t figure out how to behave in
society. He was arrested three times while at Florida, twice for drug related
matters. This makes this a great pick for the Cowboys. Seriously though, they
are in dire need of help in the secondary which has been getting shredded for a
couple years now. Terrence Newman gave up almost 10 yards per attempt last
season, and after getting absolutely embarrassed by Victor Cruz in the Cowboys
finale last season, it’s obvious he is no longer a starter in the NFL. And
since he is inexplicably signed through 2014 it is all but assured he’ll be
released. The Cowboys need someone that can come in and challenge Orlando
Scandrick for the starting CB spot opposite Mike Jenkins.
Commentary (TSB): Bold pick. I like the research into
Jenkins’ major too. Corner is the obvious need here. Hard to argue the talent,
but like you mentioned this dude has plenty of off-the-field issues. Approved.
15. (TSB) Philadelphia Eagles: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
- This guy is just too good to pass up here. Asante Samuel has had one foot out
the door for about the last three years. Nnamdi (Nigerian for “overrated”)
Asomugha has not lived up to the billing, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has
been a bit of a bust as well. In this division, teams need to stop the passing
game, and Kirkpatrick would help do just that. The Eagles also need some
linebacking help, but with Kuechly off the board I’m not convinced the gap
between someone they could get here with the 15th pick and someone
they could get a round or two later is that large.
Commentary (Swag): Like was mentioned by TSB, LB is the
need here, but value-wise that will have to be targeted in the second round. I
agree with the sense a CB makes, but with the money they’ve invested in that
area I can’t see them also burning a first rounder on it. It’s like admitting
they made a huge mistake, and if they haven’t fired Juan Castillo on the more
glaring mistake of making him DC, they won’t use this pick on a CB. I think
besides LB, an area of need would be DT. For a team running a 3-4, this
position is almost as important as QB, you need to find a nose tackle that you
can plug in and rely on for years (ex: Haloti Ngata, Vince Wilfork, Casey
Hampton), and I think a player like Dontari Poe out of Memphis is exactly that.
A 6’4” 350 pounder that will anchor that line and eat up blockers. It will
shore up a defense that is perennially poor in short yardage situations.
16. (Swag) New York Jets: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – Because
the Eagles let this big man stay on the board, the Jets scoop him up to fit
right into their defensive scheme. Even though the Jets spent their first two
picks of the 2011 draft on the D-line, guys this massive are rare, and when you
have a chance to grab one you do it. The Jets once dominant defense has become
pretty average. Since Rex Ryan took over, the Jets have never given up over 98
yards/game on the ground. They gave up over 110 yards/game on the ground in
2011. A presence like Poe in the middle can be a game changer, he’s still raw,
but in the right system (IMO the Jets have it) and with the right coach (IMO
the Jets have it), this guy can thrive and become a game changer. And with the
dominant LB corps the Jets have, this kind of guy can make a huge difference.
Jets could also look along the OL, either way they need help along the line of
scrimmage.
Commentary (TSB): Analysis of this pick will come in a
future post.
17. (TSB) Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia - The
Bengals need a running back badly to form a nice trifecta with last year’s top
two picks, AJ Green and Andy Dalton. However, none is worthy of a pick this
high. For reasons unbeknownst to me, this franchise refuses to trade up in the
draft. If ever there was a year to do it, I think this would be it with the
target being Trent Richardson. We aren’t forecasting trades though so I’m going
conservative with Glenn, a guard that might be able to contribute from day one
especially since Cincy is staring at a number of free agents along their
o-line. Protect the QB.
Commentary (Swag): Again, I just can’t picture teams
drafting guards in the first round, that’s just a personal thing. Like I know
it’s been done before and all, I just can’t predict it, my mind won’t let me.
If you’re in the bottom 5 of the first round and your rushing offense is THAT
terrible, maybe…. But I don’t care how good you are as a guard, if you were
that good you’d be a tackle, otherwise wait until the second round. That said,
I think Cincinnati has two bigger holes, one is at CB where Leon Hall is coming
back off injury and very likely won’t be ready by week 1. Nate Clements, 32
years old, and Pacman Jones are what’s left. With Kirkpatrick and Jenkins off
the board, anyone else here would be a reach at this point, and they have
another pick at 21. I can see them filling the other need with this pick, RB
Lamar Miller from Miami. He just had shoulder surgery which has hurt his stock
a little bit, but he’s a RB from the U and is an absolute homerun threat,
something Cincinnati is lacking.
18. (Swag) San Diego Chargers: Jonathon Martin, OT, Stanford
- Protect Philip Rivers. This is a top priority for SD, who (according to The
San Diego Union-Tribune) will likely release LT Marcus McNeill to give them
even more cap room. If they opt not to resign Jared Gaither they could take
Martin here. If Martin can do it with all the pressure of protecting future #1
pick Andrew Luck, he’ll be ready to do it for Philip Rivers. I do think the
Chargers need help at WR, but that’s pending on what happens with Vincent
Jackson, we’ll know more in a couple of weeks.
Commentary (TSB): Another pick that makes sense here.
Martin has been rumored to come off the board anywhere from third overall down
into this area of the first round. Seems like a very good value pick to me.
19. (TSB) Chicago Bears: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - This
pick should take 0.004 seconds to happen. Perfect match between team need /
player skill / draft value here. Jay Cutler would love this guy. If RGIII
couldn’t overthrow this guy, no way Jay Cutler can. He’ll fit in nicely
replacing Johnny Knox who got snapped in two late last season against the
Seahawks (see below). Absolute no brainer.
Commentary (Swag): Can’t argue this pick, like you said
it hit the trifecta. Just covers everything the Bears need right now. Some
outlets are saying there are team execs that have this guy rated higher than
Blackmon on their boards, so this is a tremendous value at #19.
20. (Swag) Tennessee Titans: Mark Barron, S, Alabama - I
think their biggest need is the interior of the offensive line, but as I’ve
made clear I hate wasting picks on that position in the first round, plus no
one really fits here with the better prospects off the board already…. They do
need help in their secondary, though. Aging veterans, lack of depth and free
agent questions are all swirling. He’s by far the top safety in this draft and
very good against the run with the size to do it (6’2”, 225 pounds). Fills a
need and is a real good value at #20. Again, if I was Tennessee and could trade
out of this pick I probably would. Wouldn’t mind some extra picks while
targeting a CB or an interior lineman later in the round or even into the
second round.
Commentary (TSB): I had my eye on Barron for the Lions
pick at #23 so I think this is an appropriate range for this guy, but I’m not
sold on the Titans actually needing a safety unless Michael Griffin bolts in
free agency which seems unlikely at this point. Corner will be a need if
Cortland Finnegan jets from Nashville, but this team was decimated by the run
last year giving up almost 130 yards per game. I would have gone with one of
the DT’s still on the board like Penn State’s Devon Still or Michigan State’s
Jerel Worthy.
21. (TSB) Cincinnati Bengals: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South
Carolina - Four spots after they last picked, I still don’t see a running back
on the board that is far superior to the rest. Lamar Miller has some pedigree,
but I’m lukewarm on him as a player. If the Bengals add Jeffrey here, they
could add someone like Boise State RB Doug Martin in the second round. With
Jerome Simpson possibly going to Sam Hurd State Penitentiary for the
foreseeable future, Jeffrey slots in nicely as the number two receiver behind
AJG giving Dalton even more weapons. AJ Green, Jeffrey, Jermaine Gresham,
Whiteboy Shipley, second round RB… fireworks in Ohio.
Commentary (Swag): If I had a real ratings system,
Jeffrey wouldn’t be that high on it. Something about him screams “Mike Williams
with the Lions”. He’s gained a good amount of weight and is playing heavy for a
WR. It’s noticeable when you watch him, just no explosiveness, lack of
acceleration and just slow in and out of breaks. Only balls you see him come
down with seem to be jump balls, not him beating a defender or getting over the
top of a defense. He just doesn’t fit for me in the first round. I also don’t
see the pressing need for a WR right now, there’s more desperation in the
backfield IMO. I do see your reasoning here if there was value that couldn’t be
passed up, I just don’t see the need to reach for a WR over reaching for a more
pressing need at RB. If Cincinnati is going to reach I’d also look at CB
Alfonzo Dennard out of Nebraska who I think may be a better value pick here.
22. (Swag) Cleveland Browns: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami -
Cleveland has a much bigger need area at WR, but with how this draft has
transpired they’re going to have to wait to address that need. They still have
a serious problem at RB, and with RG3 locked up it’s time to get him a weapon
in the backfield. Miller was the first RB to rush for over 1,000 yards in a
season since Willis McGahee in ’02, and he’s a burner. Wouldn’t shock me if he
has the fastest time at the combine of any RB. He’s got Chris Johnson type of
speed for a RB and can score from anywhere on the field. His ability to make
plays in the passing game is still a question due to the small sample size, but
if he can excel in that area he could be the steal of the draft.
Commentary (TSB): What about Peyton Hillis? I’m not sure
why everyone is so sure he’s leaving town. He’s a year removed from a monster
1,177 yard / 11 TD season. It’s the year-after the Madden curse season. Why are
the Browns so desperate for a running back when they have him as an internal
option? Yes, he’s a free agent, but if they retain him they can give RGIII some
more weapons, like one of the top tight ends in the draft. None has been taken
so far so they can have their pick. Also, if Miller puts up Chris Johnson-type
speed numbers at the Combine, I will be shocked.
23. (TSB) Detroit Lions: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State - We finally
got to see what a healthy Matthew Stafford could do. The Lions need to do
everything in their power to make sure he stays healthy, and that means keeping
him upright. Adams ran into some off-the-field issues at Ohio State (selling
memorabilia), but the reports I’ve been reading have all been positive in
reference to his character. It’s not like he committed some crime. If he wasn’t
a college athlete, and he sold some stuff on eBay, no one would have blinked.
Plus, this year’s starting LT Jeff Backus is a free agent, and rumors have him
fleeing for greener pastures. Wouldn’t be the worst thing to get younger at the
position.
Commentary (Swag): The Lions need all the help they can
get protecting Mr. Glass behind center. If they can keep him healthy they’re in
every game, it’s just too bad most games are shootouts due to their horrendous
secondary. I agree offensive line is their top priority, but wouldn’t be
shocked if they considered taking Alfonzo Dennard here for some secondary help.
Stafford needs all the help he can get to stay healthy, though.
24. (Swag) Pittsburgh Steelers: Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida
State - Torn ACL’s are the theme of the offseason for the Pittsburgh Steelers:
DT Casey Hampton, RB Rashard Mendenhall and OT Max Starks all went down with
season ending ACL tears. The last two are the most significant as Mendenhall’s
happened Week 17 and Starks blew his in the playoff loss to Denver. Barring
miracle rehabs, neither will be ready by opening day. With depth at RB the
Steelers aren’t desperate, but an aging and fragile offensive line before
Starks’ injury makes this a serious need. Pittsburgh may not address it if they
seek value over need with the pick, possibly opting for a versatile TE in
Dwayne Allen out of Clemson, but investing in the protection of you oft-hit
quarterback is never a bad move. If Dontari Poe falls to them here, he’d be the
sure fit to replace Hampton at the nose, but the way this plays out this is the
immediate need.
Commentary (TSB): I agree the Steelers need help on both their
offensive and defensive lines, but Sanders doesn’t excite me at all as a
prospect. I think the Steelers would be better off getting one of the top DT
prospects (Still or Worthy) here and addressing the o-line later.
Part III will be posted by Friday.
Part III will be posted by Friday.
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