Picks: Week of 9/6-9/10

It’s only week one of betting, err, football season and already I’ve learned a lesson: be extremely mindful of teasers. I went 2-1 picking games straight up last week in college football but got a little too cute trying to tease some big ‘dogs into even bigger ‘dogs. That was a mistake as I went 0-2 there. If I go back to teasers, which I will this week but probably not much in the future, I will make a concerted effort only to tease favorites in the 7-10 point range down to around even.

A 10-point favorite should win at close to an 83% clip.  Three 10-point favorites should win (.83^3) 57% of the time. If my vig is less than 7%, this is a solid wager. Let me know if you disagree with my logic here.

College Football

New Mexico State +21 (at Ohio): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)

New Mexico +38 (at Texas): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)

Arkansas State -23 (vs Memphis): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)

Oklahoma State / Arizona over 69.5: 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (W -2.7 units)

NFL

Browns +8.5 (vs Eagles): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (W -2.7 units)

Chiefs +1 (vs Falcons): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)

Chargers -1 (at Raiders): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units

Teaser: Texans Pk / Lions +1 / Ravens +4: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units (>7% vig so I understand value is not great but like big home favorites in Week 1)

NFL Futures

Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units

Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units

Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units

Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units

Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units

US Open

Janko Tipsarevic over David Ferrer: 2.5 units to win 5.8 units (hedging my Ferrer to win the Open wager) - Backfired on me as now NoJoke is a -1300 favorite over Ferrer in the semis which makes hedging a poor move. Unless Ferrer pulls the stunner, I cost myself 2.5 units with this hedge


Season Record

CFB: 2-3 (-3.8 units)
NFL: 0-0 (+0 units)
EPL: 1-1 (+0 units)
Other: 0-0 (+0 units)

Pending:

West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Arkansas to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units
David Ferrer to win US Open: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units