NFL Wins – Over/Under

Last week, Bodog released it’s initial over/under lines.

Here are my five best bets:

Denver Over 7.5: The Broncos start with the Ohio sisters (Bengals and Browns); plus, they get four games against the Raiders and Chiefs. That's six games right there.

Miami Over 7: The Dolphins won 11 games last year. Vegas is expecting them to get four games worse? Why? Also, how can the Browns and Dolphins possibly have the same expected win totals? Makes no sense.

Jets Over 7: Sure, they will probably have a rookie starting under center, but has Vegas seen what Bo Ryan has done to this defense?

Chiefs Under 6: What has this team done to improve itself? Is Matt Cassel worth four wins by himself? I’m not buying.

Vikings Under 9: The team still has no quarterback of note, and I would double down if they sign Brett Favre.

Day 1 - Recap

Winners

New York Jets: Trading up for Mark Sanchez while only giving up a second rounder and some spare parts is a win in my book. He's got the perfect make-up to succeed in New York.

Baltimore: The Ravens traded up for Michael Oher and found first round talent late in the second round in Paul Kruger.

Philadelphia: The Eagles picked up two impact players in the draft (Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy) and another by trading a couple picks (Jason Peters). Well done.

Jacksonville: I love the fact that the Jaguars are addressing their glaring need on the offensive line. Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton will allow David Garrard to prove his 2008 season was an anomaly.

UConn: Four first day picks? Well done, Randy Edsall.


Losers

Oakland: Is this even a debate? They reached for Darrius Heyward-Bay with the seventh overall pick and then stunned the masses by taking Michael Mitchell with the 40th pick. The moral of the story: never entrust your draft to an unstable, 80 year old man.

Tampa Bay: Not only did they reach for Josh Freeman, but they also traded up for him. This has major bust potential.

Cleveland: The Browns traded down from the fifth overall pick to 21 and failed to pick up a 2010 first rounder in the process. Then, they drafted two wide receivers. Worst of all, they did not make a move with either of their two quarterbacks. A very confusing day.

New England: Lots of movement but no meaningful action. The Patriots failed to grab a difference maker on either side of the ball despite being involved in about a dozen trades.

The U(niversity of Miami): No first round picks for the first time in 14 years? That'll get you a spot on this list.


Best Picks (non-Sanchez category)

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: The 49ers get the top talent in the draft with the 10th pick. Makes sense to me.

Everette Brown, DE, Florida State (43rd by Carolina): Late first round talent scooped up in the middle of the second.

Sean Smith, CB, Utah (61st by Miami): An incredible value here. Smith will be a starter in the NFL for the next ten years.


Worst Picks (non-Raiders category)

Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU (3rd by Kansas City): Jackson is a decent player, but he has very limited upside. That's not something you look for when picking third. Jackson wasn't even in my initial mock draft which shows just how far he's climbed in a few short months.

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama (6th by Cincinnati): Another day, another acquisition of a player with character issues.

Pat White, QB/WR, West Virginia (44th by Miami): I understand White will be a nice fit for the Wildcat but is that worth a precious early second rounder?

NFL Free Agents

The free agent frenzy has been fast-paced and only a few impact players remain unsigned. I wanted to do a "Top 10" list but could only come up with seven.

Top 7 Remaining FA's

1. Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: Quite possibly the only game-changer on this list. He carried Arizona through the playoffs and looks like he has a couple more years in him.

Update: Warner re-signed with Arizona, as expected. looks like Matt Leinart has clipboard duties for the next two years.

2. Igor Olshansky, DT, Chargers: A solid contrubutor on the defensive line in a league lacking solid defensive linemen.

Update: Olshansky signed with the Cowboys.

3. Bryant McFadden, CB, Steelers: Quiet and dependable, perfect qualities in a cornerback.

Update: McFadden quietly signed with the Cardinals. A great move for Arizona.

4. Jabari Greer, CB, Bills: An underrated cog in the Bills' D.

Update: Greer inked a deal with the Saints, a team in desperate need of help in the secondary.

5. Byron Leftwich, QB, Steelers: A perfect backup quarterback.

6. Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets: Coles unbelievably turned down a $6m deal from the Jets. He'll regret that in a few weeks.

Update: Coles signed a 4-year, $28m deal with the Bengals. Maybe he wasn't crazy after all.

7. Ray Lewis, LB, Ravens: A legend in his own mind.

Update: Lewis re-upped with the Ravens.

I think six of the seven players listed will return to their teams with Coles being the exception.