Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Link to Buy Low / Sell High
Rook put out a nice article today. Check it out: www.kuhlwhip.tumblr.com
College Football: Week 11 Picks
Kansas State +4.5
Washington +11.5
Upset: Navy +9
Pick of the Week: Oregon +3.5
Record: 24-21-2 (PoW: 5-5; Upset: 4-6)
NFL: Week 10 Picks
I'm 1-9 over the last two weeks. Until I break out of this funk, it's just picks without support:
Panthers -3
Giants +3.5
Lions +3
Ravens -7
Jets -1.5
Panthers -3
Giants +3.5
Lions +3
Ravens -7
Jets -1.5
Monday, November 7, 2011
Am I Dreaming Right Now?
Melky Cabrera just got traded for Jonathan Sanchez.
Um, what?
How did the Royals just pull off this coup? They are usually the ones getting ripped off not doing the ripping. I’m in shock right now.
Every other GM in baseball is kicking himself right now for not realizing the Giants were ready to give away Sanchez.
I’m also shocked that the headline of the story is about the Giants acquiring Melky. It’s amazing what Yankee-related, name recognition gets you these days.
Maybe Shelly Duncan could net the Indians Matt Cain. At this point, anything seems possible.
Um, what?
How did the Royals just pull off this coup? They are usually the ones getting ripped off not doing the ripping. I’m in shock right now.
Are the Giants giving anyone else away?
Every other GM in baseball is kicking himself right now for not realizing the Giants were ready to give away Sanchez.
I’m also shocked that the headline of the story is about the Giants acquiring Melky. It’s amazing what Yankee-related, name recognition gets you these days.
Maybe Shelly Duncan could net the Indians Matt Cain. At this point, anything seems possible.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
11 Things I Know I Know: Week 9
Full-fledged 11 Things will return in about a month, but here are some brief thoughts:
1. I know the Denver Tebows are one game out of the playoffs. Sure, they are 3-4 and need to jump three teams in their division, but let's give the Second Coming another few weeks before demanding his benching.
2. I know the Giants were the team of the week. Hard to argue with this one, either, as they went into Foxboro and came away with a victory despite being down twice in the fourth quarter alone...and despite employing Aaron Ross on their team. Even more impressive without Ahmad Bradshaw.
3. I know the Jets showed America the Bills are a fraud. What a terrible performance by Buffalo at home. New York's defense clearly got the rest it needed during the bye week and looks primed for a huge second half.
4. I know the Colts have the lead all to themselves in the Suck for Luck Race. I don't know what they would do with the pick, but I'm excited to find out. If Indy can't win one of their next two games (vs Jacksonville, vs Carolina), they might be staring at 0-16.
5. I know the 49ers are 7-0-1 against the spread this year. Why do I continue to doubt this team?
6. I know it's garbage that Alabama only dropped to 3rd in the BCS. They had their shot against the #1 team in the country and blew it. Stanford and Boise State have every reason to feel robbed.
7. I know the Bengals are legit contenders. I can't believe I just wrote that.
8. I know the Chargers are about to go on their typical second half of the season run. I thought they gained a lot of confidence as the game progressed today, and Phil Rivers can't be this bad all year.
9. I know the Saints are flying under the radar this season but figure to be a dangerous team in the postseason. In fact, this year's NFC playoffs could be among the best ever with Green Bay, San Fran, New York, New Orleans along with two of these teams: Philly, Detroit , Dallas, and Atlanta.
10. I know Thursday Night football starts this week. Make sure you set your fantasy lineups.
11. I know the Eagles will beat the Bears tomorrow night, 34-17.
1. I know the Denver Tebows are one game out of the playoffs. Sure, they are 3-4 and need to jump three teams in their division, but let's give the Second Coming another few weeks before demanding his benching.
2. I know the Giants were the team of the week. Hard to argue with this one, either, as they went into Foxboro and came away with a victory despite being down twice in the fourth quarter alone...and despite employing Aaron Ross on their team. Even more impressive without Ahmad Bradshaw.
3. I know the Jets showed America the Bills are a fraud. What a terrible performance by Buffalo at home. New York's defense clearly got the rest it needed during the bye week and looks primed for a huge second half.
4. I know the Colts have the lead all to themselves in the Suck for Luck Race. I don't know what they would do with the pick, but I'm excited to find out. If Indy can't win one of their next two games (vs Jacksonville, vs Carolina), they might be staring at 0-16.
5. I know the 49ers are 7-0-1 against the spread this year. Why do I continue to doubt this team?
6. I know it's garbage that Alabama only dropped to 3rd in the BCS. They had their shot against the #1 team in the country and blew it. Stanford and Boise State have every reason to feel robbed.
7. I know the Bengals are legit contenders. I can't believe I just wrote that.
8. I know the Chargers are about to go on their typical second half of the season run. I thought they gained a lot of confidence as the game progressed today, and Phil Rivers can't be this bad all year.
9. I know the Saints are flying under the radar this season but figure to be a dangerous team in the postseason. In fact, this year's NFC playoffs could be among the best ever with Green Bay, San Fran, New York, New Orleans along with two of these teams: Philly, Detroit , Dallas, and Atlanta.
10. I know Thursday Night football starts this week. Make sure you set your fantasy lineups.
11. I know the Eagles will beat the Bears tomorrow night, 34-17.
Friday, November 4, 2011
College Football: Week 10 Picks
Last week was a very good one (3-1-1) that could have been great if not for one of the toughest pushes of all time. I had USC getting 8 at home and watched them blow a double-digit second half lead and then lose in triple overtime... by exactly 8 points. Brutal game for me, but least it was just a push. Trying to stay hot with these picks:
Pittsburgh +3.5
South Carolina +5
Washington +17
Upset: Texas Tech +14.5
Pick of the Week: Alabama -4.5
Record: 23-18-1 (PoW: 5-4; Upset: 4-5)
Pittsburgh +3.5
South Carolina +5
Washington +17
Upset: Texas Tech +14.5
Pick of the Week: Alabama -4.5
Record: 23-18-1 (PoW: 5-4; Upset: 4-5)
NFL: Week 9 Picks
After an 0-5 week, I'm embarrassed. Really terrible work by me. Let's get back to the winning ways:
Colts +7
Titans -1.5
Chargers +5.5
Chiefs -3.5
Jets +2
Record: 20-17-3
Colts +7
Titans -1.5
Chargers +5.5
Chiefs -3.5
Jets +2
Record: 20-17-3
Monday, October 31, 2011
Who Will Be Kim K's Next Husband?
Banter favorite Kim Kardashian is back on the market. Who will she marry next?
Here's my guess:
LA Dodgers' outfielder, Matt Kemp
I have no idea why he's wearing goggles
My reasoning-
He's an athlete of African American persuasion, he's on the cusp of super-duper stardom, he's younger than KK, and he plays his home games in LA. Plus, he's dated a celebrity before (Rihanna).
Almost makes too much sense.
-Back to your regularly scheduled sports commentary-
Here's my guess:
LA Dodgers' outfielder, Matt Kemp
I have no idea why he's wearing goggles
My reasoning-
He's an athlete of African American persuasion, he's on the cusp of super-duper stardom, he's younger than KK, and he plays his home games in LA. Plus, he's dated a celebrity before (Rihanna).
Almost makes too much sense.
-Back to your regularly scheduled sports commentary-
2012 NFL Mock Draft: Take I
With apologies for not writing my usual Sunday night 11 Things column because of a prior commitment, here's a sneak peak at what the top 10 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft would look like if it were to happen today, and it's downright offensive (nine of 10 guys play on that side of the ball):
1. Miami - Some Dude Named Luck, QB, Stanford: If you haven't heard about this guy already, please close this tab of your browser and go pay attention.
2. Indianapolis - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: An incredible consolation prize for the team that misses on Luck at the top of the draft. Richardson might be on his way to winning the Heisman and would look great next to Peyton Manning in 2012. I encouraged Bill Polian & Co to take a shot on Bama's last Heisman-winning running back - Mark Ingram - in the 2011 Draft but to no avail. Now, they are stuck with the trio that brings fear to no one, Delone Carter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown. Richardson would change the whole dynamic of the Indy offense.
3. St. Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: This wouldn't be the sexiest pick, but the Rams whiffed the last time they took an offensive lineman this high (Jason Smith, number two overall in 2009) leaving a gaping hole on the left side of their line. That needs rectifying if they want to give Sam Bradford a shot to succeed.
4. Arizona - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Pretty sure Larry Fitzgerald would approve of this one. I considered Matt Barkley here for the Cardinals, but it's too early to give up on Kevin Kolb. I also think they have a bitter taste in their mouth from the last time they took a QB from USC in the top-10 (see Leinart, Matt). If Kolb can't hack it with the combo of Fitz and Blackmon, though, they'll be looking for a signal caller in 2013.
Love the idea of a Blackmon-Fitzgerald
5. Minnesota - Matt Kalil, OT, USC: The Vikings are all-in with Christian Ponder. Gottaa protect his blind side. Kalil has a great pedigree - his older bro his an offensive lineman for the Panthers - and he's honed is craft protecting Luck for the last three years.
6. Jacksonville - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Jaguars are one of the most boring teams in the NFL. As I said prior to this year's draft, they need playmakers. I completely disapproved of the Blaine Gabbert selection at the time (and still do), thinking they should have traded up for one of the premier wide receivers, AJ Green or Julio Jones. That didn't happen and now the offense is sputtering. Jacksonville has not had much luck at the position over the years - R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - but Floyd seems like a man on a mission this season despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Mike Thomas is miscast as a number one receiver. Get Gabbert some weapons.
7. Carolina - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Panthers, thanks to the miracle worker known as Cam Newton, are actually a decent team right now. The offense is flowing, and now it's the defense's turn to catch up. Claiborne is a shutdown corner that could pair with Chris Gamble to form one of the better combos in the NFL.
8. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Pete Carroll recruited this guy to USC and had enough faith in him that Barkley started from Day One as a freshman. If he slips this far, I think this is a no-brainer.
9. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: This whole Tim Tebow experiment is going to end badly...unless they move him to H-Back and have him carry the ball a few times a game. Jones has plenty of arm to throw through the winds in Denver, and he is the best option left on the board right now.
10. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The only thing that would shock me with the Redskins is if they weren't picking higher than 10th by the time April comes around. This is a bad team with a terrible quarterback situation. They will have a new body under center by next fall, and I'm guessing it will be the multifaceted RG3.
1. Miami - Some Dude Named Luck, QB, Stanford: If you haven't heard about this guy already, please close this tab of your browser and go pay attention.
2. Indianapolis - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: An incredible consolation prize for the team that misses on Luck at the top of the draft. Richardson might be on his way to winning the Heisman and would look great next to Peyton Manning in 2012. I encouraged Bill Polian & Co to take a shot on Bama's last Heisman-winning running back - Mark Ingram - in the 2011 Draft but to no avail. Now, they are stuck with the trio that brings fear to no one, Delone Carter, Joe Addai, and Donald Brown. Richardson would change the whole dynamic of the Indy offense.
3. St. Louis - Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: This wouldn't be the sexiest pick, but the Rams whiffed the last time they took an offensive lineman this high (Jason Smith, number two overall in 2009) leaving a gaping hole on the left side of their line. That needs rectifying if they want to give Sam Bradford a shot to succeed.
4. Arizona - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Pretty sure Larry Fitzgerald would approve of this one. I considered Matt Barkley here for the Cardinals, but it's too early to give up on Kevin Kolb. I also think they have a bitter taste in their mouth from the last time they took a QB from USC in the top-10 (see Leinart, Matt). If Kolb can't hack it with the combo of Fitz and Blackmon, though, they'll be looking for a signal caller in 2013.
Love the idea of a Blackmon-Fitzgerald
6. Jacksonville - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Jaguars are one of the most boring teams in the NFL. As I said prior to this year's draft, they need playmakers. I completely disapproved of the Blaine Gabbert selection at the time (and still do), thinking they should have traded up for one of the premier wide receivers, AJ Green or Julio Jones. That didn't happen and now the offense is sputtering. Jacksonville has not had much luck at the position over the years - R Jay Soward, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones - but Floyd seems like a man on a mission this season despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Mike Thomas is miscast as a number one receiver. Get Gabbert some weapons.
7. Carolina - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: The Panthers, thanks to the miracle worker known as Cam Newton, are actually a decent team right now. The offense is flowing, and now it's the defense's turn to catch up. Claiborne is a shutdown corner that could pair with Chris Gamble to form one of the better combos in the NFL.
8. Seattle - Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Pete Carroll recruited this guy to USC and had enough faith in him that Barkley started from Day One as a freshman. If he slips this far, I think this is a no-brainer.
9. Denver - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma: This whole Tim Tebow experiment is going to end badly...unless they move him to H-Back and have him carry the ball a few times a game. Jones has plenty of arm to throw through the winds in Denver, and he is the best option left on the board right now.
10. Washington - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The only thing that would shock me with the Redskins is if they weren't picking higher than 10th by the time April comes around. This is a bad team with a terrible quarterback situation. They will have a new body under center by next fall, and I'm guessing it will be the multifaceted RG3.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
NFL: Week 8 Picks
Huge 4-1 week sends me over 61% for the season and into the top 15% of the Hilton SuperContest.
Panthers -3: Christian Ponder got lucky in his first start last week. That won't last. I'm going to ride this Cam bandwagon until it throws me off.
Redskins +7: Call it the curse of the bye week, but I think the Bills will struggle after their week off. Washington is the more desperate team, and I expect them to play like it.
Saints -13: It is a rare, rare day when I take a road favorite especially when they are giving almost two touchdowns. However, this New Orleans offense couple with the atrocious St. Louis offense could make this one a romp.
Seahawks +2.5: Homefield advantage in Seattle is worth about a touchdown in my mind. I think the Seattle D can keep this in the game much like they did last week against the Browns. Vegas expects this one to be a low scoring affair too as they have the over/under at just 38, lowest of any game this week.
Cowboys +3.5: Again, that bye week thing hasn't been kind to teams. Dallas has been playing well and could put a huge monkeywrench in Philly's postseason plans. I'm guessing the Eagles win but by less than the spread.
Record: 19-12-3
Panthers -3: Christian Ponder got lucky in his first start last week. That won't last. I'm going to ride this Cam bandwagon until it throws me off.
Those of us backing this guy consistently have been all smiles.
Redskins +7: Call it the curse of the bye week, but I think the Bills will struggle after their week off. Washington is the more desperate team, and I expect them to play like it.
Saints -13: It is a rare, rare day when I take a road favorite especially when they are giving almost two touchdowns. However, this New Orleans offense couple with the atrocious St. Louis offense could make this one a romp.
Seahawks +2.5: Homefield advantage in Seattle is worth about a touchdown in my mind. I think the Seattle D can keep this in the game much like they did last week against the Browns. Vegas expects this one to be a low scoring affair too as they have the over/under at just 38, lowest of any game this week.
Cowboys +3.5: Again, that bye week thing hasn't been kind to teams. Dallas has been playing well and could put a huge monkeywrench in Philly's postseason plans. I'm guessing the Eagles win but by less than the spread.
Record: 19-12-3
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
College Football: Week 9 Picks
In a rut right now, so I'm gonna try to shake things up by making picks in list form.
Kansas State +14
Notre Dame / Navy - Over 62
USC +8
Upset: Illinois +5.5
Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State -13.5
Record: 20-17 (PoW: 4-4; Upset: 3-5)
Kansas State +14
Notre Dame / Navy - Over 62
USC +8
Upset: Illinois +5.5
Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State -13.5
Record: 20-17 (PoW: 4-4; Upset: 3-5)
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
"Suck for Luck" Hath a New Name...
... "The Dolphins Sign JP Losman"
This is priceless. Miami has decided to stop trying to pretend like they actually want to win games this year.
Just send Luck our way already. We'll do anything.
The only win UFL superstar JP Losman will lead Miami to:
the fist pick of the 2012 NFL Draft
This is priceless. Miami has decided to stop trying to pretend like they actually want to win games this year.
Just send Luck our way already. We'll do anything.
The only win UFL superstar JP Losman will lead Miami to:
the fist pick of the 2012 NFL Draft
The Hedge (Update)
As you remember, when faced with my initial decision, I could have hedged at the outset and guaranteed myself either $660 (Cardinals win Series) or $387 (Rangers win Series), but decided to just wager game-by-game (we’ll call it an intra-series).
Game 1, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Lost $150
Game 2, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Won $165
Running Total: +$15
After Game 2, I wimped (stronger words are probably appropriate here) out and took the Rangers to win the Series at -180. Bet $360 to win $200.
I stayed away from Games 3 and 4 in hopes the Cardinals could steal one because the Rangers were -200 to win both of those games. I lucked out when Albert Pujols cemented his status as the greatest hitter of our generation in St. Louis’ Game 3 victory.
Game 5, bet 130 on Rangers to win 100.
Result: Won $100
Running Total: +$115 (with $360 hedge still at risk)
Game 6, leaning towards betting $150 on Rangers to win 165. This would leave me at one of the following two places:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $165 (game 6 bet) + $115 (running total) = 480
Cardinals win: -$35 running total (with $360 hedge still at risk) and put $300 play on Rangers in Game 7
Assuming Cardinals do win Game 6, my Game 7 outcomes would be:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $270 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 435
Cardinals win: $1260 (Vegas bet) - $360 (series hedge) - $300 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 565
Unless the odds spin completely against me, I should be guaranteed at least a $435 payday which is slightly better than what I would have gotten had I hedged from the beginning.
My only regret is the midseries hedge. Once I decided to go game-to-game, I should have held the fort.
In the end, that decision will cost me a few dollars, but overall, this has been a great learning experience and a solid return on my $10 investment.
Game 1, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Lost $150
Game 2, bet 150 on Rangers to win 165.
Result: Won $165
Running Total: +$15
After Game 2, I wimped (stronger words are probably appropriate here) out and took the Rangers to win the Series at -180. Bet $360 to win $200.
I stayed away from Games 3 and 4 in hopes the Cardinals could steal one because the Rangers were -200 to win both of those games. I lucked out when Albert Pujols cemented his status as the greatest hitter of our generation in St. Louis’ Game 3 victory.
The people who do these sorts of things estimated Pujols’ first game 3 homer to have gone 423 feet. My guess would have been closer to 600. Ball was CRUSHED.
Result: Won $100
Running Total: +$115 (with $360 hedge still at risk)
Game 6, leaning towards betting $150 on Rangers to win 165. This would leave me at one of the following two places:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $165 (game 6 bet) + $115 (running total) = 480
Cardinals win: -$35 running total (with $360 hedge still at risk) and put $300 play on Rangers in Game 7
Assuming Cardinals do win Game 6, my Game 7 outcomes would be:
Rangers win: $200 (series hedge) + $270 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 435
Cardinals win: $1260 (Vegas bet) - $360 (series hedge) - $300 (game 7 bet) - $35 (running total) = 565
Unless the odds spin completely against me, I should be guaranteed at least a $435 payday which is slightly better than what I would have gotten had I hedged from the beginning.
My only regret is the midseries hedge. Once I decided to go game-to-game, I should have held the fort.
In the end, that decision will cost me a few dollars, but overall, this has been a great learning experience and a solid return on my $10 investment.
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