Friday, September 28, 2012

Ranking the Days of the Week



I had a conversation at work the other day which got me thinking about which day of the week was the worst. It’s commonly assumed most people hate Mondays most, but Monday escapes the bottom two for me. Here’s how I rank the days of the week with a brief explanation. Debate away.

Note: I left the NBA, NHL, and MLB out as games fall on any day of the week and don’t really tip the scales for one day over another.

Saturday: No brainer, top choice. I don’t have to work; can enjoy the entire day, stay up as late as I want, drink as much as I want knowing I have the Sunday security blanket; college sports also peak on Saturdays with both basketball and football seeing full slates; most English Premier League games happen; and the NFL throws Saturday a bone late in the year with a few regular season games for America to enjoy on the best day of the week and playoff games also occur on Saturdays.

Sunday: Again, no work which is huge but not as good as Saturday because the threat of work the next day looms large; the 17 NFL regular season Sundays of the year all fall into my top 50 days of the year; golf and tennis tournaments usually end on Sundays; some early EPL games are on which is nice when you have a kid that doesn’t sleep; rednecks love NASCAR Sundays; very popular day for big family dinners.

Thursday: I’m expecting this to be the first surprise on the list but sneakily Thursday is an enjoyable day with a lot of sports activity plus the weekend is finally in sight; the NFL plays 15 Thursday games a year; the first round of the NFL Draft is now on Thursdays; college football has a somewhat marquee game on Thursday each week; the NBA Draft is held on a Thursday; it’s a popular day to go out; March Madness starts on a Thursday; and best of all my favorite day of the year - Thanksgiving - falls on Thursday which bumps it above Friday for me.

Friday: Weekend countdown officially begins, can usually dress casually at work; it’s a good night to go out but not a ton of sporting events with everyone prepping for Saturday; March Madness Day 2 happens on Friday; the second and third rounds of the NFL Draft occur.

Monday: The day with the worst reputation is actually better than the next two days on the list, in my opinion; typically, you are still riding high from the weekend with big plans for the week ahead; many holidays are scheduled for Monday (MLK, Presidents, Memorial, and Labor Days) giving you three-day weekend possibilities; the NFL plays games every Monday night from September through December; the EPL schedules a few games on Mondays; the BCS Title game happens on a Monday; college basketball final occurs on a Monday; MLB home run derby is also a Monday event.

...they aren't that bad at all.

Wednesday: Kind of a no-man’s land during the week falling directly between two weekends; still too early to get excited about the upcoming weekend but memories have faded of the past weekend; I can’t think of anything memorable or significant that happens on a Wednesday but at least you are one day closer to the weekend than you were on Tuesday.

Related note- Is it just me or don’t you think everyone in the world - zero exceptions - would be significantly more productive if we made Wednesdays a day off in the middle of the week, breaking work down into two mini two-day weeks. You wouldn’t sign up for this? I would even if it meant working more total hours on the four work days.

Tuesday: The most blah day of the week plus, the upcoming weekend is still out of sight. I can only think of two things of note that happen on Tuesday and neither excites me at all: MLB All Star Game and the women’s college basketball final; when the women’s college basketball final is the highlight of your day, you know you are in trouble. Tuesdays suck.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Picks: Week of 9/27-10/1

I'm still riding high extremely high off last week's rollercoaster where I had five, yes 5!, last minute covers. I can't remember that ever happening in my favor, so you will hear absolutely no complaints here. It was a nice week for 'dogs which is what I predicted. Almost back to even on the college side.

Trying to stay hot but I see a lot fewer opportunities than I did a week ago (only teasers in college this week).

College Football

Teaser- Notre Dame +5 (covered last week) with Kansas State +24.5 (covered last week) with Ravens -2: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Ravens -2 with Baylor +21 (at West Virginia) with Cal +11 (vs Arizona State): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Missouri +12.5 (at Central Florida) with Wisconsin +21.5 (at Nebraska) with Texas +7.5 (at Oklahoma State): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units

NFL

Ravens / Browns over 43.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Falcons -7 (vs Panthers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Chargers Pk (at Chiefs): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Ravens -2 with Patriots +6 with Bengals +9: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Lions +2 with Packers -1.5: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.0 units
Parlay- Patriots -4 with Chargers Pk with Redskins +2.5: 2.0 units to win 13.0 units W - 13.0 units

EPL

Sunderland Win (vs Wigan): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Everton -1.5 (vs Southampton): 2.5 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units


Season Record

CFB: 7-8 (-5.4 units)
NFL: 10-2 (+24.7 units)
EPL: 1-1 (+0 units)
Pending: 
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Week 3: 11 Things I Know I Know

1. I know that I am insane. How do I know this? The Jets are doing the same thing they have done for the last three years - entrusting games to Mark Sanchez, failing to have any real playmakers that didn't play college ball in the Big 10, depending too much on a defense that will inevitably suffer a crippling injury (please let Revis be ok) - and yet I still expect a different outcome. It's not happening this year, but of couse I will be disappointed when they lose in the first round of the playoffs again in January.

2. I know the coolest play call of the day was made by the Bengals on the first snap of the game. Putting draft ragdoll Mo Sanu in the Wildcat only to have him hit AJ Green on a bomb was awesome to watch. Props.

3. I know we can put a fork in the Saints this year. Call it karma or regression or whatever else you want, but blowing an 18-point second half lead at home against the lowly Chiefs simply will not get it done. They should just tank the rest of the season to try to get the Reggie Bush 2.0 with the number two overall pick in 2013 (half kidding). Speaking of Kansas City, despite how brutal they were for the first 10 quarters of this season, they are only a game out of first place in the pathetic AFC West and can jump into first with a home victory against the Chargers in Week 4.

4. I know I am sick of Peyton Manning. I hope DirecTV, Sprint, Papa John's, and Buick signed Manning to one-year deals. Love the fact the Broncos are sitting at 1-2 thanks in large part to slow starts from the Chosen One. The schedule doesn't get much easier in the short term either. Their next six are: Oakland, at New England, at San Diego, New Orleans, at Cincy, at Carolina. I need Sunday Ticket. How else can I watch the Broncos sputter to a 2-7 start?

5. I know quarterbacks in this league still don't know when to spike the ball and when not to in the two-minute drill. Two examples today of when they should not have spiked at the end of the first half- Andrew Luck with 42 seconds left facing first and goal with a timeout in hand (there's still plenty of time to run three plays) and Big Ben with 28 seconds left and his team already at the line of scrimmage. The spike is a wasted down with that much time left on the clock. Maximize your chances for a touchdown.

6. I know the Cardinals are the most pleasant surprise in the NFL. 3-0? Are you serious? Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, doesn't matter who is under center. This team will compete every week thanks to their defense. Good to see old favorite Kerry Rhodes making a difference in the desert.

7. I know these are some things I hated this week: Randy Moss is just going through the motions and needs to be released; the Colts allowing the Blaine Gabbert / Cecil Shorts combo to beat them; San Diego's effort in a show-me-where-you-really-stack-up game; Carolina failing to show up to a nationally televised game; Detroit's defense; the fact the Texans already have a magic number to clinch the AFC South; the utter lack of control displayed by these replacement refs; being left hanging:

I have been left hanging on a number of high-5s but never on national TV
8. I know that these are some things I loved this week: Torrey Smith's touchdown; Shaun Hill coming off the bench to lead a miracle comeback; the Lions-Titans game in general; the RedZone Channel (you will see this almost every week); Greg Schiano sticking with his guns; Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan's play.


9. I know Brandon Weeden is Tim Couch reincarnated. Huge college numbers, rocket arm, background in another sport, first round pick destined to fail in Cleveland. Dudes even look similar. Browns fans should hope Weeden can at least find a playmate to marry like Couch did so they have something to look forward to.


10. I know the top three celebrations today were (in order) Jared Odrick' Pee Wee Herman, Nate Burleson's pregnant woman impression, and Jed Collins' hips don't lie. In any other week, these would be no brainer top choices but these dudes pulled out all the stops probably because none of the three ever has much to celebrate so they use their best material when they do.

11. I know the Packers will beat the Seahawks 24-19 tomorrow night. Seattle has the best homefield advantage in the NFL. Green Bay has the best player in the NFL. Take talent every time.


"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is my favorite article each week.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Picks: Week of 9/20-9/24

Pretty solid week going 3-0 in the NFL. I did take the write-down of Arkansas winning the BCS championship which hurts a little, but that was bound to happen soon after their choke-job against LA-Monroe two weeks ago. Glad the USC number never got to 7 or I would have been onboard there, but instead had no college action this weekend.

My futures aren't looking so hot right now but plenty of season to play. The Browns have been the most disappointing team thus far to me as they could be 2-0 with a few better bounces and the Bills on tap this weekend. Not to be though.

I'm hoping for a nice upset weekend across the board.


College Football

LA-Monroe +7.5 (vs Baylor): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Rutgers +7 (at Arkansas): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Clemson +14 (at Florida State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Ball State +10.5 (vs South Florida): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Oregon/Arizona Over 77.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - L 2.8 units
Teaser- Notre Dame +5 with Kansas State +24.5 with OPEN: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units Pending

NFL

Jets -2.5 (at Dolphins): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Rams +8 (at Bears): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - L 2.8 units
Bucs +7 (at Cowboys): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Parlay- Texans Win with Ravens Win: 2.5 units to win 5.1 units - W 5.1 units
Packers/Seahawks Under 47.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units


Season Record

CFB: 3-7 (-12.6 units)
NFL: 6-1 (+14.9 units)
EPL: 1-1 (+0 units)
Pending:
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Picks: Week of 9/13-9/17

Very frustrating week losing two games by a touchdown or less.

College Football

I have a wedding Saturday, and it's really not fun betting on games that you can't watch so I'm taking Saturday off... unless USC drops to -7 or less at which point I will be taking them. The spread is at 8.5 right now so this is a doubtful outcome.

NFL

Halftime Score: Packers -3 (vs Bears): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Packers -5.5 (vs Bears): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Falcons -3: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units - W 5.0 units


Season Record

CFB: 3-6 (-10.1 units)
NFL: 3-1 (+4.9 units)
EPL: 1-1 (+0 units)

Pending:
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Arkansas to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units - This will likely be written down after they get walloped by 'Bama this weekend.
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units

Sunday, September 9, 2012

11 Things I Know I Know: Week 1

Abbreviated version. Child care got in the way.

1. I know RGIII is the real deal. It took less than a quarter to squash any Ryan Leaf/second pick of the draft bust chatter. He looked in complete control of the offense, and the game in general, from the start and Redskins fans finally (FINALLY!) have their man under center. He's easy to root for, his teammates love him, and he just looks like a great dude. Something everyone in DC can agree upon.

By the way, as cool as RGIII is, that's how diametrically opposite of cool Saints punter/kickoff specialist Tom Morestead's pony/rat tail is.


Are you serious with that weak sauce, Morestead?
 2. I know Alex Smith looked better than Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. Read that again. Shocking but true.

Also, San Francisco's backup QB Colin Kaepernick looks identical to Nomar Garciaparra in a helmet. Check it out.

3. I know the Lions saved their season - yes, their season, with a comeback win against the Rams. In order for this team to go deep into the playoffs, they need homefield advantage. Absolutely need to have it. QB Matt Stafford looked shaky in the first half but seemed to settle in after the half and put the team on his back in the last two minutes. It wasn't pretty, but a win's a win. Stafford leads the Lions into San Fran to face Smith and the 49ers next week.

4. I know Matt Ryan looked great, but the Chiefs were missing their best cornerback, Brandon Flowers, and pass-rusher, Tamba Hali. Before you get your panties in a bunch, let's watch him against a team with a stout defense - like Denver in Week 2. Julio Jones has officially surpassed Roddy White as Matty Ice's target of choice too.

5. I know my outlook on the Browns and Jets season openers was spot on. I just didn't know Brandon Weeden would be so terrible.

Here's what I wrote about Cleveland:

Back in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Browns made a concerted effort to improve a defense that finished in the bottom 10 the prior season by using their top two picks on Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard. It worked.  Cleveland’s defense finished in the top 10 of yards allowed and the top 5 in points allowed which is an impressive feat since their offense was flat out terrible (13.6 points per game). In this year’s draft, the Browns used their top three picks (all in the top 37 overall) on the offensive side of the ball, Trent Richardson-Brandon Weeden-Mitchell Schwartz. Then, they grabbed WR Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft over the summer. Will it make a difference? I’m guessing it will be enough to make their offense average, which is a huge improvement. I’m also guessing that Philly will be looking past this game a little bit knowing that six of their next seven opponents have a legit chance of reaching the playoffs this season. Michael Vick might be “healthy” coming into the game, but he was knocked out of both preseason games with injuries. He’s also a glorified running back (with a hose piece) and running backs don’t tend to age well after they hit 30. He’s 32. I might look like a fool, but I’m all in on the Browns this week (also crossing my fingers that Joe Haden's suspension gets overturned).

And the Jets:

If home field is worth 3 points in the NFL, I have to think the Jets are the better team straight up. Throw preseason numbers out the window. They do not matter. Now, I don’t think the Wildcat is going to revolutionize this Jets offense, but there’s no way they can be as bad as they were over the last month. Plus, this team will rely on its defense to win ballgames and the offense not to screw things up too badly.  New York has also won seven of the last eight against the Bills, including two wins by a total of 20 points last season. Is Mario Williams a great player? Absolutely, but I don’t think he’s enough to swing the scales.

6. I know Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson will not be starting by Week 8.

7. I know that the RedZone Channel is the best thing to happen to my football watching experience since the yellow first down marker. Holy crap, it's great. Can't say enough good things about it. Scott Hanson does a really nice job in the studio and always finishes stories he starts even if it takes a few minutes and is separated by a few other look-ins. No commercial, constant football watching is incredible. If you don't have the RZC, go change your cable provider.


8. I know the non-QB MVP this week was Vikikngs K Blair Walsh who hit a 55-yard field goal to force overtime. Temendous job.

9. I know for all the talk of how terrible the replacements refs would be, they did a good enough job to be a non-issue in Week 1 and hopefully will never ne heard from again.

10. I know the most disappointing team of the week was the Carolina Panthers. If you want respect, you need to beat teams like Tampa Bay no matter the location. (Green Bay at least lost to a solid football team.)

11. I know the Ravens will win 24-14, and the Chargers will win 27-17 on Monday Night Football. I also know that I love the NFL's new schedule of having a midweek game every week for the first four months of the season. We only have to wait until Thursday for more games.



"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is my favorite article each week.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Picks: Week of 9/6-9/10



It’s only week one of betting, err, football season and already I’ve learned a lesson: be extremely mindful of teasers. I went 2-1 picking games straight up last week in college football but got a little too cute trying to tease some big ‘dogs into even bigger ‘dogs. That was a mistake as I went 0-2 there. If I go back to teasers, which I will this week but probably not much in the future, I will make a concerted effort only to tease favorites in the 7-10 point range down to around even.

A 10-point favorite should win at close to an 83% clip.  Three 10-point favorites should win (.83^3) 57% of the time. If my vig is less than 7%, this is a solid wager. Let me know if you disagree with my logic here.

College Football

New Mexico State +21 (at Ohio): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
New Mexico +38 (at Texas): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
Arkansas State -23 (vs Memphis): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
Oklahoma State / Arizona over 69.5: 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (W -2.7 units)

NFL

Browns +8.5 (vs Eagles): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (W -2.7 units)
Chiefs +1 (vs Falcons): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
Chargers -1 (at Raiders): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units
Teaser: Texans Pk / Lions +1 / Ravens +4: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units (>7% vig so I understand value is not great but like big home favorites in Week 1)

NFL Futures

Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units

US Open

Janko Tipsarevic over David Ferrer: 2.5 units to win 5.8 units (hedging my Ferrer to win the Open wager) - Backfired on me as now NoJoke is a -1300 favorite over Ferrer in the semis which makes hedging a poor move. Unless Ferrer pulls the stunner, I cost myself 2.5 units with this hedge


Season Record

CFB: 2-3 (-3.8 units)
NFL: 0-0 (+0 units)
EPL: 1-1 (+0 units)
Other: 0-0 (+0 units)
Pending:
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Arkansas to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units
David Ferrer to win US Open: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units