Fresh off my first winning week of the NFL season, let's see if I can keep this going.
49ers -3: 5.9 units to win 5.0 units
Bills +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Browns +4.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Overall Record: 5-11 (-14.3 units)
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
Thursday, September 26, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 5
Another solid week pushes the record above 68%. I'll take that pace all day, every day.
Not really feeling this week's slate though. Let's try to make the most of it.
Oregon/Cal Under 84: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
LSU +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Texas A&M -14: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Central Florida +7: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week- USC +6: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Houston -2: 4.4 units to win 4.0 units
Overall Record: 15-7 (+35.3 units)
Upset: 2-1
PoW: 2-1
PoY: 1-0
Not really feeling this week's slate though. Let's try to make the most of it.
Oregon/Cal Under 84: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
LSU +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Texas A&M -14: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Central Florida +7: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week- USC +6: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Houston -2: 4.4 units to win 4.0 units
Overall Record: 15-7 (+35.3 units)
Upset: 2-1
PoW: 2-1
PoY: 1-0
Thursday, September 19, 2013
NFL Picks: Week 3
Pretty terrible week which can be summarized perfectly with the way I lost my Eagles-Chargers over 27.5 1H wager:
With the score 13-10, twice in the final five minutes of the first half, the Chargers lost fumbles inside the Eagles' 10 yard line. Of course, the under hit. Just a bad week...again on the pro side.
Good news on the Futures side of the ledger where my Trent Richardson and EJ Manuel wagers are looking better than they were before the season.
Saints-Cardinals over 48: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Cowboys -3: 6.5 units to win 5.0 units
Colts +10: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Overall Record: 3-10 (-19.0 units)
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
With the score 13-10, twice in the final five minutes of the first half, the Chargers lost fumbles inside the Eagles' 10 yard line. Of course, the under hit. Just a bad week...again on the pro side.
Good news on the Futures side of the ledger where my Trent Richardson and EJ Manuel wagers are looking better than they were before the season.
Saints-Cardinals over 48: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Cowboys -3: 6.5 units to win 5.0 units
Colts +10: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Overall Record: 3-10 (-19.0 units)
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
College Football Picks: Week 4
This week is pretty boring both in terms of quality games and opportunities so will keep the wagers to a minimum amount.
San Jose State +4: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Rutgers Pk: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Stanford -7: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week- Utah State +7: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Marshall +11: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Overall Record: 11-6 (+28.1 units)
Upset: 2-1
PoW: 2-1
PoY: 1-0
Thursday, September 12, 2013
NFL Picks: Week 2
Patriots -12.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Eagles -7: 3.3 units to win 2.5 units
Eagles-Chargers 1H over 27.5: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Bills +3: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units
Cowboys +3: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Giants +4.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Lions -1.5: 3.8 units to win 3.5 units
Overall Record: 1-5 (-8.4 units)
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
College Football Picks: Week 3
Sam Houston State, my pick of the year, covered...barely, but they still covered and that's all that matters. That turned last week into a very positive one even though I only went 1-3.
Texas A&M +8.5: 3.6 units to win 3.3 units
Upset of the Week- Wisconsin +5.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Louisville -12.5: 4.8 units to win 4.4 units
Overall Record: 8-6 (+17.9 units)
Upset: 1-1
PoW: 1-1
PoY: 1-0
Texas A&M +8.5: 3.6 units to win 3.3 units
Upset of the Week- Wisconsin +5.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Louisville -12.5: 4.8 units to win 4.4 units
Overall Record: 8-6 (+17.9 units)
Upset: 1-1
PoW: 1-1
PoY: 1-0
Sunday, September 8, 2013
11 Things I Know I Know: Week 1
1. I know the 49ers-Packers game lived up to its billing as "America's Game of the Week." Back and forth, high scoring, hard hitting, trash talking, mixed with great individual performances. Loved every second of it.
2. I know the Steelers should be embarrassed about their performance and seriously concerned about the year ahead. Pittsburgh was gifted a 2-point lead one second into today's game (must be an NFL record for quickest points scored, right?) against Tennessee. Unfortunately, they may not see another lead the rest of the season. The offense was a joke, they lost Maurkice Pouncey and Larry Foote for the year, and the defense gave up 16 points to the hapless Titans offense which may not seem like much but these are Jake Locker's Titans.
3. I know the Bengals and Cardinals have to be kicking themselves right now. They each blew 11-point leads on the road in the last 20 minutes. If Cincinnati has Super Bowl aspirations, that can't happen. If the Cardinals want to have any shot at the playoffs (or at least over 5.5 wins), they can't afford things like this.
4. I know the Free Agent Bowl was a dud. The Browns and Dolphins combined to spend over $100m in the first week of free agency. Didn't seem to matter. Mike Wallace had one catch for 15 yards. Paul Kruger, Dannell Elerbe, and Brent Grimes combined for eight solo tackles and a sack. Miami's not complaining after a W, but the game was a snoozefest.
So was the Top of the Draft Bowl. Kansas City had the first and Jacksonville had the second pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The Jaguars looked like they'll be selecting in the same vicinity come 2014.
5. I know we will look back at Lavonte David's late hit on Geno Smith today as the sole reason Jadeveon Clowney won't be playing for the Jets the next 10 years. What was David thinking?
6. I know the following teams had better hope Week 1 was an aberration and they didn't actually spend their money in the wrong places:
a) The Falcons: spent first and second round draft picks on defensive backs only to give up 357 yards through the air to Drew Brees.
b) The Bucs: spent a first rounder (to acquire Darrelle Revis) and $41m+ to sign Dashon Goldson away from the 49ers and still gave up 214 through the air to the lowly Jets.
c) The Vikings: spent a first rounder on Cordarrelle Patterson and $47m+ on Greg Jennings who combined for four catches and 43 yards against the atrocious Lions secondary.
7. I know if I were commissioner for a day I would make these two changes:
1) When a team correctly challenges a call, they would not be penalized a challenge. Isn't the goal to get all calls correct? Why should a coach that made the correct call be harmed in any way.
2) Enforce excessive celebration penalties for only the truly excessive celebrations. These guys get paid to score touchdowns. Why is it such a big deal that they celebrate with teammates? Refs are now actively looking for any reason to throw the flag.
8. I know the best three teams in the NFL are:
1) San Francisco
2) Denver
3) Seattle (did not play well, had to travel across the country to play an early game, still won)
...and the worst three teams are:
30) Pittsburgh
31) Cleveland
32) Jacksonville
9. I know I liked:
a) Martellus Bennett channeling his inner Tyrone Prothro to secure a touchdown catch despite (my boy) George Iloka's best efforts.
b) Thomas Davis flying all over the field, making big plays, and just being healthy.
c) Joique Bell's TD celebration, arms waving.
d) EJ Manuel's touch.
10. I know I disliked:
a) There's no buzzkill quite like every opening kickoff resulting in a touchback. Fans and players are amped...only to see the ball go through the back of the end zone most of the time.
b) "Flacco" still auto-correcting to "Flaccid" on my phone.
c) Matt Ryan's first pass this year was nearly identical to his last pass last year: incompletion over the middle to an open Tony Gonzalez.
d) The Packers getting screwed by the refs again this year (offsetting 15 yard penalties).
e) Blaine Gabbert. Everything about him.
11. I know the Redskins will beat the Eagles 24-22 (we are going to see some crazy final scores if Chip Kelly follows his always go for two mantra) and the Texans will beat the Chargers 30-26.
11 Things I Know I Know: my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which is my favorite part of his weekly MMQB article.
2. I know the Steelers should be embarrassed about their performance and seriously concerned about the year ahead. Pittsburgh was gifted a 2-point lead one second into today's game (must be an NFL record for quickest points scored, right?) against Tennessee. Unfortunately, they may not see another lead the rest of the season. The offense was a joke, they lost Maurkice Pouncey and Larry Foote for the year, and the defense gave up 16 points to the hapless Titans offense which may not seem like much but these are Jake Locker's Titans.
3. I know the Bengals and Cardinals have to be kicking themselves right now. They each blew 11-point leads on the road in the last 20 minutes. If Cincinnati has Super Bowl aspirations, that can't happen. If the Cardinals want to have any shot at the playoffs (or at least over 5.5 wins), they can't afford things like this.
4. I know the Free Agent Bowl was a dud. The Browns and Dolphins combined to spend over $100m in the first week of free agency. Didn't seem to matter. Mike Wallace had one catch for 15 yards. Paul Kruger, Dannell Elerbe, and Brent Grimes combined for eight solo tackles and a sack. Miami's not complaining after a W, but the game was a snoozefest.
So was the Top of the Draft Bowl. Kansas City had the first and Jacksonville had the second pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The Jaguars looked like they'll be selecting in the same vicinity come 2014.
5. I know we will look back at Lavonte David's late hit on Geno Smith today as the sole reason Jadeveon Clowney won't be playing for the Jets the next 10 years. What was David thinking?
6. I know the following teams had better hope Week 1 was an aberration and they didn't actually spend their money in the wrong places:
a) The Falcons: spent first and second round draft picks on defensive backs only to give up 357 yards through the air to Drew Brees.
b) The Bucs: spent a first rounder (to acquire Darrelle Revis) and $41m+ to sign Dashon Goldson away from the 49ers and still gave up 214 through the air to the lowly Jets.
c) The Vikings: spent a first rounder on Cordarrelle Patterson and $47m+ on Greg Jennings who combined for four catches and 43 yards against the atrocious Lions secondary.
7. I know if I were commissioner for a day I would make these two changes:
1) When a team correctly challenges a call, they would not be penalized a challenge. Isn't the goal to get all calls correct? Why should a coach that made the correct call be harmed in any way.
2) Enforce excessive celebration penalties for only the truly excessive celebrations. These guys get paid to score touchdowns. Why is it such a big deal that they celebrate with teammates? Refs are now actively looking for any reason to throw the flag.
8. I know the best three teams in the NFL are:
1) San Francisco
2) Denver
3) Seattle (did not play well, had to travel across the country to play an early game, still won)
...and the worst three teams are:
30) Pittsburgh
31) Cleveland
32) Jacksonville
9. I know I liked:
a) Martellus Bennett channeling his inner Tyrone Prothro to secure a touchdown catch despite (my boy) George Iloka's best efforts.
b) Thomas Davis flying all over the field, making big plays, and just being healthy.
c) Joique Bell's TD celebration, arms waving.
d) EJ Manuel's touch.
10. I know I disliked:
a) There's no buzzkill quite like every opening kickoff resulting in a touchback. Fans and players are amped...only to see the ball go through the back of the end zone most of the time.
b) "Flacco" still auto-correcting to "Flaccid" on my phone.
c) Matt Ryan's first pass this year was nearly identical to his last pass last year: incompletion over the middle to an open Tony Gonzalez.
d) The Packers getting screwed by the refs again this year (offsetting 15 yard penalties).
e) Blaine Gabbert. Everything about him.
11. I know the Redskins will beat the Eagles 24-22 (we are going to see some crazy final scores if Chip Kelly follows his always go for two mantra) and the Texans will beat the Chargers 30-26.
11 Things I Know I Know: my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" which is my favorite part of his weekly MMQB article.
Thursday, September 5, 2013
NFL Picks: Week 1
Falcons +3: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Jets +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Panthers +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Reverse Teaser- Ravens Pk / Bills +3.5 / Raiders + 3.5: 1.0 units to win 19.0 units
Late Additions:
Steelers -6: 5.5 units to win 5.0 units
Reverse Teaser- Lions -12.5 / Bills +3.5 / Raiders + 3.5: 1.0 units to win 19.0 units
Overall Record: 0-0
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
Jets +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Panthers +3.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Reverse Teaser- Ravens Pk / Bills +3.5 / Raiders + 3.5: 1.0 units to win 19.0 units
Late Additions:
Steelers -6: 5.5 units to win 5.0 units
Reverse Teaser- Lions -12.5 / Bills +3.5 / Raiders + 3.5: 1.0 units to win 19.0 units
Overall Record: 0-0
Pending Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
College Football Picks: Week 2
True story: I was in Vegas last week and went to at least seven casinos looking for the moneyline on the Eastern Washington (+27) at Oregon State game. None would take my bet. Did EWU win outright? Of course they did. Now, I hit my +27 wager against the spread but a +1400 moneyline would have been a whole lot sweeter.
No complaining after a winning week though. Light week this week for now with the exception of my pick of the year.
Sam Houston State.
If there was ever a team that would get overlooked it's SHSU right here. Texas A&M is playing 'Bama next week and spending about 2% of their time focusing on an FCS team. No shot they lose here but 38.5 seems like a ton of points. This is the biggest game of the year for SHSU and probably the least important to A&M. SHSU is also ranked 4th in the nation and were national runner's up last year. They can play.
I'm wagering over 8x my normal wager on this one. The FCS has been good to me this year. I will never speak a bad word about the FCS if this one hits. [Note: I never speak a bad word right now, but I'll keep it that way if we cover.]
South Carolina +3: 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week-Western Kentucky +13.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Notre Dame +4: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Year- Sam Houston State +38.5: 22.0 units to win 20.0 units
Overall Record: 7-3 (+6.0 units)
Upset: 1-0
PoW: 1-0
No complaining after a winning week though. Light week this week for now with the exception of my pick of the year.
Sam Houston State.
If there was ever a team that would get overlooked it's SHSU right here. Texas A&M is playing 'Bama next week and spending about 2% of their time focusing on an FCS team. No shot they lose here but 38.5 seems like a ton of points. This is the biggest game of the year for SHSU and probably the least important to A&M. SHSU is also ranked 4th in the nation and were national runner's up last year. They can play.
I'm wagering over 8x my normal wager on this one. The FCS has been good to me this year. I will never speak a bad word about the FCS if this one hits. [Note: I never speak a bad word right now, but I'll keep it that way if we cover.]
South Carolina +3: 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Upset of the Week-Western Kentucky +13.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Week- Notre Dame +4: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Pick of the Year- Sam Houston State +38.5: 22.0 units to win 20.0 units
Overall Record: 7-3 (+6.0 units)
Upset: 1-0
PoW: 1-0
NFL Picks: Futures
Lions to win the NFC North: 5.5 units to win 27.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
Cardinals over 5.5 wins: 3.1 units to win 2.5 units
Broncos under 11.5 wins: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
Patriots over 11 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.6 units
Eagles over 7.5 wins: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
Redskins over 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.0 units
Trent Richardson +3.5 Rush TDs over Arian Foster: 2.9 units to win 2.5 units
EJ Manuel to win Offensive RoY: 5.0 units to win 87.5 units
11 Things I Know I Know: Season Preview Edition
1. I know the eight division winners will be the: Patriots, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Giants, Lions, Panthers, and 49ers.
2. I know the four Wildcard winners will be the: Bengals, Ravens, Redskins, and Packers.
3. I know Cam Newton will win the league MVP.
4. I know EJ Manuel will win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
5. I know Star Lotulelei will win Defensive Rookie of the Year. I love the Star-Luke Keuchly combo.
6. I know the following teams will hit the Over on wins: Patriots (11), Texans (10.5), and Cardinals (5.5).
7. I know the following teams will hit the Under on wins: Broncos (10.5), Falcons (10), and Colts (8.5).
8. I know the Jets will start 3-1, get everyone's hopes up in New York, and then lose their last 12 games to secure the top pick in he 2014 NFL Draft.
9. I know the Cardinals will be the most pleasant surprise in the NFL.
10. I know the Seahawks will be the league's most disappointing team.
11. I know the Texans will beat the Packers to win the Super Bowl.
2. I know the four Wildcard winners will be the: Bengals, Ravens, Redskins, and Packers.
3. I know Cam Newton will win the league MVP.
4. I know EJ Manuel will win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
5. I know Star Lotulelei will win Defensive Rookie of the Year. I love the Star-Luke Keuchly combo.
6. I know the following teams will hit the Over on wins: Patriots (11), Texans (10.5), and Cardinals (5.5).
7. I know the following teams will hit the Under on wins: Broncos (10.5), Falcons (10), and Colts (8.5).
8. I know the Jets will start 3-1, get everyone's hopes up in New York, and then lose their last 12 games to secure the top pick in he 2014 NFL Draft.
9. I know the Cardinals will be the most pleasant surprise in the NFL.
10. I know the Seahawks will be the league's most disappointing team.
11. I know the Texans will beat the Packers to win the Super Bowl.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
11 Things I Know I Know: Bold Fantasy Predictions Edition
1. I know AP will not finish the season as a top-8 RB. I told you this was the
bold edition. Two major factors working in my favor: Christian Ponder
(opponents have no reason not to play eight in the box vs. the Vikes)
and the injury risk of the running back position.
[Side note: Steele is about 100,000x cooler of a last name than Ponder. If I'm Sam Steele, no way I agree to change my name.]
Teams that will feature a player with more fantasy points: Tampa Bay, Philly, Baltimore, New York (Giants), New England, Washington, Cleveland, and Chicago.
2. I know DeAngelo Williams will finish the year as a top-12 RB. Jon Stewart is out for at least the first six weeks, and I have to think the Panthers want to limit the hits Cam Newton takes so I'm thinking his rush attempts will be down this year. The opportunities will present themselves to DAW. He will take advantage.
3. I know Vick Ballard will lead the Colts in rushing...by at least 500 yards. Andrew Luck will be second on the team. I do not trust Ahmad Bradshaw's feet.
4. I know Emmanuel Sanders will lead the AFC in receiving yardage. Opportunities will be there with Mike Wallace gone and teams will be keying on Antonio Brown, at least early in the year.
5. I know Matthew Stafford will be a top-2 QB finishing behind only Drew Brees. Reggie Bush adds another dimension to this passing attack, I have had a mancrush on Ryan Broyles since his OU days, and the Scheffler-Pettigrew tight end combo is lethal in the red zone. And oh yea, Calvin still dons the blue and silver.
6. I know no Denver RB will finish in the top-25. Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and Knowshon Moreno will all cancel each others' fantasy usefulness out with 600 yard a piece.
7. I know Stepfan Taylor will be the best rookie RB. Rashard Mendenhall is not making it out of Week 4. Ryan Williams might be released any day. The guy I'm most worried about taking carries from Taylor in AZ is actually Andre Ellington. I'm really bummed first ronder Jon Cooper was lost for the year, but the Cards are my 2013 sleeper anyway.
8. I know Desean Jackson will be a top-7 WR. Isn't Chip Kelly's offense perfectly designed for guys like Desean? I'm excited to watch what this offense can do in Philly.
9. RG III will play in all 16 games for the Redskins. Draft with confidence.
10. I know Tavon Austin will be the third best wide receiver on his own team behind Chris Givens and Brian Quick. Maybe we'll even have some Stedman Bailey sightings.
11. I know Marshawn Lynch will not be a top-12 RB. I think the Seahawks will work Robert Turbin and Christine Michael into the mix eating away at Skittles' numbers.
[Side note: Steele is about 100,000x cooler of a last name than Ponder. If I'm Sam Steele, no way I agree to change my name.]
Teams that will feature a player with more fantasy points: Tampa Bay, Philly, Baltimore, New York (Giants), New England, Washington, Cleveland, and Chicago.
2. I know DeAngelo Williams will finish the year as a top-12 RB. Jon Stewart is out for at least the first six weeks, and I have to think the Panthers want to limit the hits Cam Newton takes so I'm thinking his rush attempts will be down this year. The opportunities will present themselves to DAW. He will take advantage.
3. I know Vick Ballard will lead the Colts in rushing...by at least 500 yards. Andrew Luck will be second on the team. I do not trust Ahmad Bradshaw's feet.
4. I know Emmanuel Sanders will lead the AFC in receiving yardage. Opportunities will be there with Mike Wallace gone and teams will be keying on Antonio Brown, at least early in the year.
5. I know Matthew Stafford will be a top-2 QB finishing behind only Drew Brees. Reggie Bush adds another dimension to this passing attack, I have had a mancrush on Ryan Broyles since his OU days, and the Scheffler-Pettigrew tight end combo is lethal in the red zone. And oh yea, Calvin still dons the blue and silver.
 |
| I'm depending on this guy's right arm to win me a few fantasy titles. |
6. I know no Denver RB will finish in the top-25. Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and Knowshon Moreno will all cancel each others' fantasy usefulness out with 600 yard a piece.
7. I know Stepfan Taylor will be the best rookie RB. Rashard Mendenhall is not making it out of Week 4. Ryan Williams might be released any day. The guy I'm most worried about taking carries from Taylor in AZ is actually Andre Ellington. I'm really bummed first ronder Jon Cooper was lost for the year, but the Cards are my 2013 sleeper anyway.
8. I know Desean Jackson will be a top-7 WR. Isn't Chip Kelly's offense perfectly designed for guys like Desean? I'm excited to watch what this offense can do in Philly.
9. RG III will play in all 16 games for the Redskins. Draft with confidence.
10. I know Tavon Austin will be the third best wide receiver on his own team behind Chris Givens and Brian Quick. Maybe we'll even have some Stedman Bailey sightings.
11. I know Marshawn Lynch will not be a top-12 RB. I think the Seahawks will work Robert Turbin and Christine Michael into the mix eating away at Skittles' numbers.
Friday, August 30, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 1
Heading to Vegas this weekend to put these games in myself. Can't wait.
Ohio +20.5 at Louisville
Alabama -20 vs Va Tech
Clemson +1.5 vs Georgia
Eastern Washington +27 at Oregon State
BYU -1 at Virginia
Central Michigan +31.5 at Michigan
Villanova +17 at Boston College
Toledo +24 at Florida
Upset of the Week: North Dakota State +14 at Kansas State
Pick of the Week: Western Kentucky +5 vs Kentucky
I have a lot of faith in the top-level FCS teams (see Towson over UConn last night) playing mid to low-level FBS schools.
Also liking the cream of the lower FBS non-BCS conferences against overrated teams from BCS conferences.
Ohio +20.5 at Louisville
Alabama -20 vs Va Tech
Clemson +1.5 vs Georgia
Eastern Washington +27 at Oregon State
BYU -1 at Virginia
Central Michigan +31.5 at Michigan
Villanova +17 at Boston College
Toledo +24 at Florida
Upset of the Week: North Dakota State +14 at Kansas State
Pick of the Week: Western Kentucky +5 vs Kentucky
I have a lot of faith in the top-level FCS teams (see Towson over UConn last night) playing mid to low-level FBS schools.
Also liking the cream of the lower FBS non-BCS conferences against overrated teams from BCS conferences.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Hold That Thought, Sandy. I Have A Better Idea
A week ago, I laid out a plan for
Sandy Alderson to get the Mets into contention as soon as 2014.
Well, hold that thought, Sandy. I
have an even better idea.
1) Trade for Ryan Braun.
(Note: In all honesty, I’m not even
sure if trading a suspended player is legal, but for this exercise, let’s
assume it is.)
Hear me out.
-Braun’s trade value will never be lower. It’s
tough to argue this point.
-Braun has worn out his welcome in Milwaukee. An editorial
yesterday in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called for his release. Now,
although the author clearly doesn’t understand how contracts work, I take this
as a sign that the local sentiment is heavily anti-Braun right now which could be great
news for the Mets.
-The Mets wouldn’t have to pay him in 2013. He is suspended without pay so they won't have to pay him a dollar until 2014 at which time Jason Bay and Johan Santana will be off the books.
-If he gets suspended again, he will face a lifetime
ban. This is clearly not optimal but not
organizationally crippling either (as compared to an injury or having A-Rod
under contract for the next half decade) since they would get out from his
contract immediately.
-Braun will be uber-motivated to prove everyone wrong that
PEDs are the reason for his success. The guy was the fifth overall pick in the 2005
Draft. He has plenty of God-given talent which PEDs only enhanced.
-He will be underpaid until 2020. He signed a below market deal in April of 2011 which locked
him up until at least 2020 with a mutual option for 2021 (Total: 7 years at
$113m; 2014- $10m, 2015- $12m, 2016- $19m, 2017- $19m, 2018- $19m, 2019- $18m,
2020- $16m). David Wright and Ryan Braun hitting 3-4 in the Mets lineup for the
next seven seasons? Yes, please!
-This is New York. Perform and people forget all your
past transgressions. Countless
examples of this, namely Gooden and Strawberry and to a lesser degree Raul
Ibanez who was never implicated for PEDs but very much suspected while playing
with the Phillies.
-We are not talking about a murderer here. Society forgives murderers (see Lewis, Ray); I think
we can handle a steroid user.
-Limited backlash.
It’s not like the Mets are selling tickets anyway. Who is this going to
piss off? We aren’t talking about a Michael Vick-like situation where
animal lovers unite to picket Citi Field. There have been dozens,
probably hundreds, of steroid users before and plenty more to follow.
-This would make the Mets interesting and must watch TV for
the first time since 2006.
-Proposed deal:
OF Brandon Nimmo and RHP Cory Mazzoni for Braun. Clearly on talent alone, this wouldn’t work but due to the “extenuating”
circumstances, isn’t it worth the phone call from Sandy Alderson to Doug Melvin
to find out? The Brewers have been
clamoring to get a first round pick back since they lost their 2013 when they
signed Kyle Lohse. Nimmo was a first
rounder in 2011. He was a participant in
the 2013 Futures Game. He has a ton of
upside. (Make it convincing, Sandy.)
As much as I would love to see the
Mets sign Robinson Cano their best bet to acquire talent is via trade as Flushing
has not been the desired destination for top notch free agents since Carlos
Beltran signed back in January of 2005. That’s an eight-year drought, going on
nine for those keeping the book at home.
As for the rest of the plan,
consider it altered, but only a bit.
2) Trade OF Marlon
Byrd and RP Bobby Parnell to the Red Sox for INF Deven Marrero and RHP Matt
Barnes.
Byrd isn’t fitting into the long
term plans but can be paired with Daniel Nava to form an extremely productive
platoon. Parnell can slot into either the eighth or ninth innings in Boston. Barnes
is having a down year, but he’s striking out well more than a batter an inning
and is only two years removed from being a first rounder. He’s also named Matt
and from Connecticut. Just saying. Marrero can be a league average second baseman.
3) Trade SP Rafael
Montero and 2B Daniel Murphy to the Dodgers for OF Joc Pederson.
The Mets have a surplus of arms (at
least as it compares to their bats). Montero can be replaced. The Dodgers
exchange a guy who is blocked, for the foreseeable future behind Yasiel
Puig, Carl Crawford, and Matt Kemp (and possibly Andre Ethier if he sticks
around) for a nice pitching prospect and a new starting second baseman.
Pederson is on pace to go 25 HRs / 40 SBs in AA. Yea, we’ll take it.
4) Figure out a
way to obtain SS Chris Owings from the Diamondbacks.
I watched Owings play in the Futures
Game and was blown away. He’s got a hosepiece from short, showed great range,
and he swings the stick. Love the guy. He’s blocked in the desert by
Aaron Hill, Martin Prado, Matt Davidson (Futures Game MVP), and Didi Gregorius.
Maybe John Buck is an attractive piece to Arizona as a right-handed platoon
mate of the struggling Miguel Montero? Does Buck, Ruben Tejada, and B- prospect
for Owings work?
5) Shut down Matt
Harvey.
Save the bullets plus tank for a
better pick in the 2014 Draft. Keep enhancing the farm system. Carlos Rodon or
Jacob Gatewood - who put on a show and a half at the HR Derby - would do just
fine.
6) Sign OF
Shin-Soo Choo, RP Grant Balfour, and RP Joaquin Benoit in the offseason.
Choo is an on-base machine. Slots
perfectly atop the lineup. The relievers can be signed to short term deals as both will be 36 next season. If things go poorly to start 2014, they can be
dealt for more assets at the trade deadline. Pretty sure the one-year salaries
of Braun+Balfour+Benoit would equal a year of Cano (this is a change from my first plan).
2014 Rotation
1-Harvey
2-Niese
3-Wheeler
4-Syndergaard
5-Hefner/Gee/Barnes
2014 Lineup
RF- Choo
CF- Pederson
3B- Wright
LF- Braun
1B- Ike / Wilmer Flores
SS- Owings
C- d’Arnaud
CF- Pederson
3B- Wright
LF- Braun
1B- Ike / Wilmer Flores
SS- Owings
C- d’Arnaud
2B- Marrero
HOPE. Finally.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Fixing The Mets in Six Steps
It’s been nearly three months since my last post, and for that, I apologize. I won’t start to make excuses. I could say my parenting duties have gotten in the way or this is a slow time of year in sports or that it’s an extremely busy time at work right now. I could, but I won’t.
The three months that passed saw my biggest fans/followers in Europe begging for more writing. I had numerous hits from Latvia, Poland, and old favorite, Ukraine. Why? I have no idea, but they were arriving at the Banter in droves, especially on July 14th. A slow Bastille Day, I assume.
What I will do is continue writing about ways to fix my beloved Mets. Lord, and anyone else that follows, knows the current plan – if there is one – is simply not working fast enough.
The Mets are in the largest market in the world. Yes, their owners are in financial trouble, but if things were that bad, wouldn’t they sell the team at a time when sports teams are being sold for astronomical prices?
The Mets and their fans can look across the coast at the LA Clippers. Forever the bastard step brothers of the almighty Lakers, the Clips are now the talk of the town in California. I think the Mets can pull off something similar. The Yankees are primed for a fall. They are an aging team with a farm system bereft (God, I love that word) of high impact talent at the AA or AAA levels.
Two years ago, I wrote an article on how the Mets could turn themselves into contenders by 2013. Sandy Alderson actually listened to my first suggestion but not any more. I stand by that article now more so than I did then. Some of those moves were genius, and none was a poor decision looking back.
I wrote another article this offseason asking Sandy to make some moves which would have turned the franchise around. Did any happen? Of course not. Would they have looked extremely smart seven month later? Absolutely.
Let me try my hand one more time on the hopes that Sandy has seen my work and realizes he should listen.
My philosophies are simple here:
1- Go out and target minor league hitters that are positionally blocked. The lineup is brutal to watch.
2- Trade your relievers. The single most fungible position in baseball is the relief pitcher.
3- Tank 2013. Let’s go get ourselves a top 3 pick in this draft.
Simple.
Now, how should this plan be executed?
1) Trade RP Bobby Parnell, RP Josh Edgin, and OF Marlon Byrd to the Red Sox for OF Jackie Bradley, Jr. and INF Deven Marrero.
The Red Sox get two relievers under team control for a while to sure up their bullpen. Parnell could be the closer they have been looking for, and Edgin provides the lefty arm the Sox are lacking without Andrew Miller. Byrd can be a useful right handed bat off the bench.
The Mets get a top-100 prospect in Bradley that got off to an ice cold start this season, but who can cover a ton of ground in centerfield at spacious Citi Field and potentially bat leadoff in the future. Marrero is blocked by Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks, and Jose Iglesias. He is nothing more than a utility infielder in Boston. For the Mets though, he can be an adequate 8-hole hitting second baseman that gets on base at a more than passable clip while playing great defense or a useful utility guy if #5 on this list happens.
2) Trade SP Rafael Montero and 2B Daniel Murphy to the Dodgers for OF Joc Pederson.
The Mets have a surplus of arms (at least as it compares to their bats). Montero can be replaced. The Dodgers exchange a guy who is, you guessed it, blocked, for the foreseeable future behind Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, and Matt Kemp (and possibly Andre Ethier if he sticks around) for a nice pitching prospect and a new starting second baseman. Pederson is on pace to go 25 HRs / 40 SBs in AA. Yea, we’ll take it.
3) Figure out a way to obtain SS Chris Owings from the Diamondbacks.
I watched Owings play in the Futures Game and was blown away. He’s got a hosepiece from short, showed great range, and he swings the stick. Love the guy. He’s blocked in the desert by Aaron Hill, Martin Prado, Matt Davidson (Futures Game MVP), and Didi Gregorius. Maybe John Buck is an attractive piece to Arizona as a right-handed platoon mate of the struggling Miguel Montero? Does Buck, Ruben Tejada, and a prospect for Owings?
4) Shut down Matt Harvey.
Save the bullets plus tank for a better pick in the 2014 Draft. Keep enhancing the farm system. Carlos Rodon, Trea Turner, or Jacob Gatewood (who put on a show and a half at the HR Derby) would all do just fine.
5) Sign 2B Robinson Cano in the offseason.
Game. Changer. Overpay if you need to, but make this happen. Johan Santana and Jason Bay come off the books in October (after they get bought out). The Mets have basically no one under contract next season besides Wright and Jon Niese. They can fit Cano and one other free agent easily into the budget, assuming the budget is in the $90-100m range which it sounds like it should be. Get better and hurt the cross-town Yanks. Win. Win.
6) Sign OF Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason.
On base machine. Slots perfectly atop the lineup.
2014 Rotation
1-Harvey
2-Niese
3-Wheeler
4-Syndergaard
5-Hefner/Gee
2014 Lineup
RF- Choo
CF- Bradley, Jr.
3B- Wright
2B- Cano
1B- Ike / Wilmer Flores
LF- Pederson
SS- Owings
C- d’Arnaud
This is an affordable, sustainable squad.
I would buy season tickets to watch this crew 90 times - including 9 home playoff games during their run to the World Series - in 2014.
The three months that passed saw my biggest fans/followers in Europe begging for more writing. I had numerous hits from Latvia, Poland, and old favorite, Ukraine. Why? I have no idea, but they were arriving at the Banter in droves, especially on July 14th. A slow Bastille Day, I assume.
What I will do is continue writing about ways to fix my beloved Mets. Lord, and anyone else that follows, knows the current plan – if there is one – is simply not working fast enough.
The Mets are in the largest market in the world. Yes, their owners are in financial trouble, but if things were that bad, wouldn’t they sell the team at a time when sports teams are being sold for astronomical prices?
The Mets and their fans can look across the coast at the LA Clippers. Forever the bastard step brothers of the almighty Lakers, the Clips are now the talk of the town in California. I think the Mets can pull off something similar. The Yankees are primed for a fall. They are an aging team with a farm system bereft (God, I love that word) of high impact talent at the AA or AAA levels.
 |
| Land of Hope |
I wrote another article this offseason asking Sandy to make some moves which would have turned the franchise around. Did any happen? Of course not. Would they have looked extremely smart seven month later? Absolutely.
Let me try my hand one more time on the hopes that Sandy has seen my work and realizes he should listen.
My philosophies are simple here:
1- Go out and target minor league hitters that are positionally blocked. The lineup is brutal to watch.
2- Trade your relievers. The single most fungible position in baseball is the relief pitcher.
3- Tank 2013. Let’s go get ourselves a top 3 pick in this draft.
Simple.
Now, how should this plan be executed?
1) Trade RP Bobby Parnell, RP Josh Edgin, and OF Marlon Byrd to the Red Sox for OF Jackie Bradley, Jr. and INF Deven Marrero.
The Red Sox get two relievers under team control for a while to sure up their bullpen. Parnell could be the closer they have been looking for, and Edgin provides the lefty arm the Sox are lacking without Andrew Miller. Byrd can be a useful right handed bat off the bench.
The Mets get a top-100 prospect in Bradley that got off to an ice cold start this season, but who can cover a ton of ground in centerfield at spacious Citi Field and potentially bat leadoff in the future. Marrero is blocked by Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks, and Jose Iglesias. He is nothing more than a utility infielder in Boston. For the Mets though, he can be an adequate 8-hole hitting second baseman that gets on base at a more than passable clip while playing great defense or a useful utility guy if #5 on this list happens.
2) Trade SP Rafael Montero and 2B Daniel Murphy to the Dodgers for OF Joc Pederson.
The Mets have a surplus of arms (at least as it compares to their bats). Montero can be replaced. The Dodgers exchange a guy who is, you guessed it, blocked, for the foreseeable future behind Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, and Matt Kemp (and possibly Andre Ethier if he sticks around) for a nice pitching prospect and a new starting second baseman. Pederson is on pace to go 25 HRs / 40 SBs in AA. Yea, we’ll take it.
3) Figure out a way to obtain SS Chris Owings from the Diamondbacks.
 |
| Owings replaces Justin Smoak as my new man crush |
I watched Owings play in the Futures Game and was blown away. He’s got a hosepiece from short, showed great range, and he swings the stick. Love the guy. He’s blocked in the desert by Aaron Hill, Martin Prado, Matt Davidson (Futures Game MVP), and Didi Gregorius. Maybe John Buck is an attractive piece to Arizona as a right-handed platoon mate of the struggling Miguel Montero? Does Buck, Ruben Tejada, and a prospect for Owings?
4) Shut down Matt Harvey.
Save the bullets plus tank for a better pick in the 2014 Draft. Keep enhancing the farm system. Carlos Rodon, Trea Turner, or Jacob Gatewood (who put on a show and a half at the HR Derby) would all do just fine.
5) Sign 2B Robinson Cano in the offseason.
Game. Changer. Overpay if you need to, but make this happen. Johan Santana and Jason Bay come off the books in October (after they get bought out). The Mets have basically no one under contract next season besides Wright and Jon Niese. They can fit Cano and one other free agent easily into the budget, assuming the budget is in the $90-100m range which it sounds like it should be. Get better and hurt the cross-town Yanks. Win. Win.
6) Sign OF Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason.
On base machine. Slots perfectly atop the lineup.
2014 Rotation
1-Harvey
2-Niese
3-Wheeler
4-Syndergaard
5-Hefner/Gee
2014 Lineup
RF- Choo
CF- Bradley, Jr.
3B- Wright
2B- Cano
1B- Ike / Wilmer Flores
LF- Pederson
SS- Owings
C- d’Arnaud
This is an affordable, sustainable squad.
I would buy season tickets to watch this crew 90 times - including 9 home playoff games during their run to the World Series - in 2014.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
