College Football: Week 3 Picks

Hawaii +12: The Rainbows can score. They put up points and rack up yards through the air. After last week's 45-point stomping suffered against Cal, the Buffaloes seem primed for another letdown.

 

Illinois -7

 

USC -12

 

Vanderbilt +12: Didn't Ole Miss just lose at home to Jax State?

 

Texas -3

 

Arizona +2: Time for my Sleeper of the Year to make a move. If they win this one,a top-12 ranking can't be too far away.

 

Best Bet: East Carolina +20: After being embarrassed by James Madison at home, the Hokies' season is basically shot. Sure, they can win the ACC and get to a BCS game, but this is a relatively meaningless non-conference game to them and they'll never be able to shake the stigma of losing to an FCS school. East Carolina can score, and few teams in the country have more momentum coming into this weekend. They beat Tulsa on Opening Weekend thanks to a Hail Mary, and they smoked Memphis last week. I think they can at least keep this one close.

 

Upset of the Week: Temple +7: I hate hate hate picking against UConn, but I think Temple is for real this year (or as real as they have ever been).

 

Record: 9-4 (Best Bet: 2-0; Upset: 0-2)  

Thursday Links

-Buster Olney blog. [ESPN Insider; password required]

 

-Kendall Rogers' Big Ten baseball offseson review. [Yahoo]

 

-Andrew Brandt tells us how close the Packers were to signing Randy Moss on two different occasions. [NFP]

 

-How important is Week 1? [NYT]

 

-Chad Ford grades the NBA offseasons: East and West. [ESPN Insider; password required]

 

 

 

 

BC 9/16/2010

 

 

Wednesday's "Halfway to Another Football Weekend" Links

-Tampa doesn't deserve the Rays. What a pathetic turnout.[Biz of Baseball]

 

-Solid day out of Deadspin yesterday:

   -Mailbag

   -Eric Bledsoe transcript fun (I especially like that he took Algebra 3 before Algebra 2)

 

-Buster Olney blog. [ESPN Insider; password required] 

 

 

BC 9/15/2010

Tuesday Links

-Peter King's MMQB. [SI.com]

-Florida Gators football = Jail Blazers * Bengals.

-Andrew Brandt breaks down the contracts of Charles Woodson and Tom Brady and then details the threat of NFLPA decertification. [NFP]

-JI Hassell wonders if the Darrelle Revis deal sets a poor precedent. [Inside the Cap]

-Pat White takes advice from the Banter and gives up football (at least for the time being). [Pro Football Talk]

-Really, you can't wait two seconds until celebrating? [Wiz of Odds]

-Buzzkill Central: On the heels of the university's most defining athletic moment, Northern Iowa could abolish their D1 sports. [Des Moines Register]

-Further to our point that Felix Hernandez should win this year's Cy Young [SB Nation by way of Rob Neyer]



-Dave Pinto still scheming about a massive tie scenario. [Baseball Musings]

-Mike passed this along because he claimed to have "called this" while it happened and before Elias confirmed it.

-One of the boldest marketing strategies I have ever seen. [ESPN]





BC 9/14/10

Shameless Heyman at It Again

In a recent tweet, Jon Heyman sings the praises of Scott Boras' most famous client (now that ARod dumped him), a client that seeks a new contract this winter - Manny Ramirez.



Rumors that Heyman has a place on Boras' payroll are really not far-fetched.

Friday Links

-Buster Olney blog. [ESPN Insider; password required]

-It drives me crazy when teams winning a title in the US (MLB, NBA, NFL) call themelves "world champs." This would help and be extremely entertaining. [Fangraphs]

-Kendall Rogers sums up the Big East offseason. [Yahoo]

-Top 50 Dunks of All Time [Baketball Reference]
If you dont have time for all 50, check out these eight:
-45: Deron Washington jumps off a trampoline to throw this down
-44: Renaldo Balkman dunks at MSG with Isiah Thomas in attendance prompting Thomas to waste a first round pick on Balkman
-43: Darrelle Porter - very underrated dunk. Could have been top-10 worthy
-39: The last time Travis Leslie and DeMarcus Cousins will ever appear in the same sentence. A great dunk nonetheless
-23: Jason Maxiell kicks Otis George (at least) three times in the head
-20: Chris Porter with one of the five best putbacks of all time
-14: Vinsanity
-12: My vote for #1



Enjoy the weekend.

BC 9/10/2010

College Football: Week 2 Picks

Things we learned / confirmed last week:

 

1- Never bet on a Les Miles-coached team.

2- Memphis is absolutely terrible.

3- So is Akron.

4- Boise was one VT first down conversion away from being a completely forgotten team. Now they have a good chance to play for the BCS title.

 

After a solid 5-2 opening week, let's try to stay hot.

 

Auburn -1.5 - It's always dangerous picking against a team that just burned you a few days back (Mississippi State), but I think the Tigers will be able to run the ball with ease.

 

East Carolina -13.5 - The Pirates are on an emotional high after last week's Hail Mary victory.

 

Oklahoma State -13.5 - Troy barely covered at home against Bowling Green last week while the Cowboys' Kendall Hunter galloped for more than 250 yards.

 

Oklahoma -7.5 - Until Florida State wins a big regular season game, which they haven't since 2003, I will bet against them (Note: FSU's victory at way overranked BYU last season doesn't count to me as a "big" win).

 

Upset: Iowa State +14 - These rivalry games are typically tight and the Cyclones have covered 10 of the past 12 against the Hawkeyes.

 

Best Bet: Alabama -11.5 - True freshman quarterback Robert Bolden will be making his first ever start on the road and against an FBS opponent, an opponent that happens to be the defending national champs. The Crimson Tide's D should swallow him whole.

 

Record: 5-2 (Best Bet: 1-0; Upset: 0-1)

NFL Predictions & Prop Bets Galore

Week 1

 

Jaguars -2.5

Colts -2

Jets -.5 (1st Half)

Upset of the Week: Rams +4

Pick of the Week: Saints / Vikings Over 24 (1st Half)

 

 

Playoffs

 

AFC

 

Wildcard: Colts over Steelers; Patriots over Chargers

Division: Bengals over Patriots; Jets over Colts

Conference: Jets over Bengals

 

 

NFC

 

Wildcard: Falcons over 49ers; Saints over Eagles

Division: Falcons over Cowboys; Packers over Saints

Conference: Packers over Falcons

 

 

Super Bowl

 

Jets 30, Packers 24

 

 

Prop Bets

 

Value, value, value. The only reason to make prop bets is to get great value. Here are some I'll be making.

 

Regular Season MVP

 

Chris Johnson 10/1

Ray Rice 30/1

Michael Turner 30/1

 

 

Most Passing Yards

 

Matthew Stafford 20/1

 

 

Most Rushing Yards

 

Shonn Greene 10/1

 

 

Most Receiving Yards

 

Roddy White 13/1

 

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

 

Sam Bradford 7/1

 

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

 

Rolando McClain 8/1

 

 

Win Totals

 

Over

 

Cincinnati Bengals* 7.5

Green Bay Packers* 9.5

Dallas Cowboys* 9.5

Houston Texans 8

New York Jets 9.5

New England Patriots 9.5

Atlanta Falcons 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 9

Indianapolis Colts 11

Tennessee Titans 8.5

Oakland Raiders 6

Philadelphia Eagles 8.5

New York Giants 8.5

Detroit Lions 4.5

New Orleans Saints 10.5

San Francisco 49ers 8.5

St. Louis Rams 4.5

 

 

Under

 

Buffalo Bills* 5.5

Chicago Bears* 8

Seattle Seahawks* 7.5

Baltimore Ravens 10

Denver Broncos 7.5

Carolina Panthers 7.5

San Diego Chargers 11

Cleveland Browns 5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars 7

Arizona Cardinals 7.5

Miami Dolphins 8.5

Kansas City Chiefs 6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.5

Washington Redskins 7.5

Minnesota Vikings 9.5

 

* = Best Bets

Thursday "Are You Ready For Some Football" Links

-According to Banter-favorite Andrew Brandt, teams that win in March rearely win in January. [NFP]

-Matt Bowen takes us inside the playbook in a micro-preview of tonight's Saints-Vikings matchup. [NFP]

-Lombardi. I find a little humorous that seven of the most eight intriguing people in the NFL are quarterbacks and the eighth is a head coach. [NFL.com]

-In a recent article, Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats critiques some of Football Outsiders' "theories":

• Standard team rankings based on total yardage are inherently flawed. -- Ok
• Running on third-and-short is more likely to convert than passing on third-and-short. -- Concur
• If their overall yards per carry are equal, a running back who consistently gains yardage on every play is more valuable than a boom-and-bust running back who is frequently stuffed at the line but occasionally breaks a long highlight-worthy run. -- Not always. If you're the underdog or significantly behind in the game, you want the boom/bust guy.
• A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson. -- False. As one of my commenters put it, this notion "is a violent assault on good logic and reason."
• Teams with more offensive penalties generally lose more games, but there is no correlation between defensive penalties and losses. -- Probably false. It's possible they've fallen for the same trap I fell into years ago. The NFL calls penalty yards by an opponent "defensive penalties." But if true, it's interesting. The real question would be why don't defensive penalties matter?
• Field-goal percentage is almost entirely random from season to season, while kickoff distance is one of the most consistent statistics in football. -- True.
• Field position is fluid. -- Huh? I think this is just supposed to mean that defenses affect their offenses' field position and vice-versa.
• Injuries regress to the mean on the seasonal level, and teams that avoid injuries in a given season tend to win more games. -- Ok. Did we need a study for this?
• A team will score more when playing a bad defense, and will give up more points when playing a good offense. -- And all this time I thought it was the other way around!
• The future NFL success of quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds of the draft can be projected with a high degree of accuracy by using just two statistics from college: games started and completion percentage. -- Intriguing, but I'd like to see how this system has performed since it was published. As I recall, it's been off the mark.
• Championship teams are generally defined by their ability to dominate inferior opponents, not their ability to win close games. -- Interesting.

-Two of Deadspin's nerdier recent posts:

-Real-time Sales Analytics

-Breaking down the "greatest kick ever" with physics

-When Harold Miner surfaces, we link. [Lost Lettermen]

-Well, that was easy:

King Felix Deserves the Cy: Exhibit 7

I am not one to spend much time debating awards and Hall of Fame candidacies. However, when I see something as egregious as CJ Wilson outranking Felix Hernandez in any Cy Young race, I have no choice but to speak my mind.

 

If Hernandez fails to win the award this season, it will be a travesty. According to ESPN's "Cy Predictor" such a scenario will play out. In fact, by their calculation, Felix ranks seventh in the AL (Wilson ranks fifth). What a joke.

 

Here are some of the King's numbers:

 

IP: 219.1 (2nd in MLB)

K: 209 (1st in MLB)

ERA: 2.30 (3rd in MLB)

WHIP: 1.09 (8th in MLB)

Quality Starts: 27 (1st in MLB)

Quality Start %: 90% (1st in MLB - by a wide margin)

Tough Losses: 7 (2nd in MLB)

Opponent OPS: .597 (2nd in MLB)

Wins: 11 (37th in MLB)

 

He has been dominant in nearly every start this year. His team has failed him offensively, but to say any other pitcher has been more "outstanding" this season would simply be incorrect.

 

Ironically, his peripheral numbers across the board are better this year than they were last season, a year in which ESPN predicted he would win the Cy.

 

A closing thought - Connor Glassey of Baseball America had this to say about the King yesterday: 99 of the 162 players that have made their Major League debuts this season are older than Felix.

 

A scary thought for the rest of the league.

 

 

 

BC

Wednesday Links

-Rich Lederer of The Baseball Analysts looks at strikeouts per pitch.  

 

-Someone much smarter than me calculates playoff probabilities in a back-of-the-envelop, exact kind of way. [Walk Like a Sabr]

 

-Feel good story alert. Rocco Baldelli homers in his first Major League swing of the season, and he has no plans to return to coaching. [NYT]

 

-As stadiums vanish, their debt lives on. [BYT]

 

-Jay Payton still plays baseball!? [Rotoworld]

 

-Kendall Rogers with a Pac-10 baseball summer update. [Yahoo]

 

-Most fans root for a particular team. Dave Pinto at BaseballMusings.com prefers to root for ties.

 

-SI.com's Tom Verducci explains how to "fix" baseball's playoffs. Truthfully, I had no idea the system was broken.

 

-The four guys that most impressed me this weekend in college football were RB Ed Wesley (TCU) and Boise State's three-headed running back trio - Doug Martin, DJ Harper and Jeremey Avery. These guys would start at almost every BCS school.

 

-Andrew Brandt breaks down the Revis deal. [NFP]

 

-"The Amazon Freak" might play this season afterall. [Baltimore Sun]

 

-In case you haven't gotten enough Boise State news this week, Chris Brown of Smart Football dissects their schemes from a coaching perspective.

 

-Deadspin Mailbag.

 

-Today's ultra-depressing Beiber stat. [Business Insider]

 

 

 

 

BC 9/8/2010

NFL Predicted Standings

AFC
	East
		NYJ	11	5
		NE*	11	5
		Miami	8	8
		Buff	3	13
	North
		Cin	11	5
		Pitt*	10	6
		Bal	9	7
		Cle	4	12
	South
		Ind	11	5
		Hou	10	6
		Ten	9	7
		Jax	6	10
	West
		SD	9	7
		Oak	7	9
		Den	6	10
		KC	6	10
NFC
	East
		Dall	12	4
		Phi*	10	6
		NYG	9	7
		Was	7	9
	North
		GB	12	4
		Minn	9	7
		Det	5	11
		Chi	5	11
	South
		NO	11	5
		Atl*	10	6
		Car	6	10
		TB	4	12
	West
		SF	9	7
		Ari	7	9
		StL	5	11
		Sea	4	12
		* = Wilcard

 

Tomorrow: Playoff Predictions / Prop Bets / More to Follow

 

 

Better Catch: Prothro or Jones?

You decide:

Noteworthy NFL Players Cut

Bobby Carpenter (Rams) - Of first round bust and getting referred to as "Barbie" fame
Herman Johnson (Cardinals) - Behemoth, 6'9", 390lbs offensive lineman out of LSU
Sam Aiken (Patriots)
Clint Ingram (Eagles) - Crushed by tearing his ACL in back-to-back years
Troy Smith (Ravens) - Former Heisman Trophy winner
Rhett Bomar (Giants) - Last week, it looked like he would win the backup QB job; this week, he's gone
Andre Brown (Giants) - Another popular "sleeper" gone
Ian Johnson (Vikings) - Of proposing to his girlfriend after the Fiesta Bowl fame
Colt Brennan (Raiders) - Of Hawaii / June Jones / ultra-spread offense / choke against Georgia fame
LeGarrette Blount (Titans) - Of punching a Boise State Bronco in the face fame
Chris Simms (Titans) - Of his father's fame
James Hardy (Bills) - He coulda been something
Graham Harrell (Packers) - Of putting up gaudy numbers under Mike Leach fame
Michael Clayton (Bucs)
Hunter Cantwell (Panthers)
Brett Ratliff (Browns) - Of getting traded as a key component in the Mark Sanchez deal fame
Patrick Turner (Dolphins & Jets) - Of getting released two times in two days by two teams fame
Pat White (Dolphins) - It's probably best for his health if he never plays another down in the NFL



Matt Jones (Bengals) - Of getting arrested for narcotics fame
Willie Parker (Redskins)
Juaquin Iglesias (Bears) - 2009 3rd round pick that never panned out as planned; I had high hopes for him
And finally, Jarron Gilbert (Bears) - Man made famous jumping out of a pool. Apparently, the freakish athleticism didn't translate to the gridiron.

Tuesday Links

BC gets an extended weekend so you have to put up with me until tomorrow.

 

 

-Buster Olney blog: Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. [ESPN Insider; password required]

 

-Peter King's MMQB. [SI.com]

 

-Dan Pompei's Sunday Blitz. [NFP]

 

-Lombardi. [NFL.com]

 

-NFL salary cap analysis from JI Halsell here and here. [Inside the Cap]

 

-This doesn't rank as high as Winona Ryder's shout out to Syosset in Mr. Deeds, but I'll gladly accept a Syosset mention/retweet from Chris Mortensen. [Twitter]

 

-Exciting stuff happening in the Field/fx world. [Rob Neyer]

 

-Giggling evilly. [Deadspin]