Had my first losing college football week since early September and ran into some tough luck on the EPL games, going 0-2 there as well. Thankfully, I hit my highest conviction game of the year, Oregon against the spread and in my big parlay which kept the weekend minimally negative (-1.6 units net).
I also took the hit this week on West Virginia winning the BCS, or I guess not winning the BCS which cost me another 2.5 units. There's still an outside shot they can win the Bug 12 so I won't write that off quite yet.
The NFL - and my road favorites - treated me well on Sunday getting me over +50 units for the season. I loved seeing the Packers, Saints, and Cowboys winning this week which helps my futures wagers on each of them.
I thought Mitt Romney was decent in this week's debate, but he'll need to be better to have a shot at winning.
I have a work event all weekend so won't be able to watch much football Saturday. Gotta get home for the Red Zone Channel on Sunday.
College Football
Kent State +13.5 (at Rutgers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Teaser- NE Patriots +3.5 with Notre Dame +20.5 with USC +3.5: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units
NFL
Patriots -6.5 (vs Rams in London): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Cowboys +1.5 (vs NY Giants): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
Saints +6 (at Broncos): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC:2.5 units to win 43.8 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units
1. I know Malcolm Jenkins made the play of the day. Situation: Saints lead 28-21, Bucs ball on their own 4-yard line with 7 minutes left in the third quarter. Josh Freeman hits Vincent Jackson for a 95-yard completion but Jenkins tracks V-Jax down at the 1-yard line, saving a touchdown. Four unsuccessful rushes later and Tampa Bay turned it over on downs, and the Saints would never look back winning 35-28.
2. I know the Texans responded in style to the beating they took last week at the hands of the Packers. The Texans now sport an NFL-best +88 point differential, the defense led by JJ Watt is legit, and Arian Foster and Co make this offense scary. On the flip side, I can't believe how bad Baltimore looked. Ray Lewis was a shell of his former self this year so losing him should not have been this devastating but they looked putrid trying to stop Houston and inept trying to score on them.
3. I know the Packers are the team I would least like to face right now in all of football. As good as Houston has been, Green Bay embarrassed them on their home field. Aaron Rodgers is starting to look like MVP Aaron Rodgers again, and they have the best wide receivers in football.
4. I know the Browns wide receivers are the worst receivers in football. They look like athletes, they get open, but they can't catch the ball. Exhibit A: Fourth quarter, Browns face four-pont deficit. Josh Gordon gets behind the defense, Brandon Weeden throws a perfect ball to the goal line, Gordon drops it costing Cleveland the game. (Note: I am 100% not buying the sun in the eyes excuse. These are professional pass catchers.)
5. I know the AFC wild card leaders (this is being written during Sunday Night Football and might change) have only three wins. Three! We are almost done with the seventh week of this season and no non-division leader has more than three wins. That's amazing and speaks to how bad this conference is right now.
6. I know there are no such things as moral victories. That being said, the
Jets surpassed all of my expectations this week in Foxboro by taking the
Patriots to overtime. New York's defense played great all day and kept them in the game. I also loved when the Jets used Antonio Cromartie on Rob Gronkowski.
Might help if the game announcers paid some attention:
I also really dislike that Phil Simms repeatedly says "eem" instead of "him."
7. I know the team I am shorting most is the San Francisco 49ers. I'm a believer in this defense but Alex Smith cannot be trusted to win a team a Super Bowl.
8. I know if the Titans can keep the game closer than three touchdowns, they will win. When they lose, they get crushed as their L's have been by 21, 28, 24, and 23 points. Look at the other games though: 3-point win, 3-point win; 1-point win. If you want to beat Tennessee, don't let them hang around or Matt Hasselbeck will find a way to beat you.
9. I know Cam Newton needs a wake-up call. I thought when Steve Smith called him out during the Giants game, he would respond. Well, clearly he didn't. After today's disaster, he ripped the offensive coordinator for his playcalling. Um, Cam. You were terrible today. Grow up, man up, take some responsibility.
With the road victory, Dallas was able to stay a game and a half behind the red hot Giants in the NFC East. This division is the best in football, and it's not even close. Every team can win on any given week against anyone in the NFL. Eli has the Giants clicking, RG3 has the Redskins hoping, and Dallas and Philly have the talent to make a run.
10. I know the NFL erred by putting only two late games on Sunday featuring five of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Yes, four teams, five terrible quarterbacks. We, the fans, were "treated" to the poo-poo shit platter of Blaine Gabbert-Chad Henne-Carson Palmer-Mark Sanchez-Tim Tebow. Very poor planning by the suits on Park Avenue. On a related note, how on Earth does anyone in the Jags' front office still have a job? Gabbert and Henne are your top two quarterbacks? Really? Clean house, Shad Khan.
This play summarizes my thoughts perfectly.
The Jags had 4th and 1 in Oakland territory late in the first half. For some
inexplicable reason, they decide to roll the notoriously immobile Henne out of the pocket. Instead of
trying to force a throw and possibly a completion down the field, he throws the
ball OUT OF BOUNDS!! On 4th down! Who cares if it’s intercepted? It’s laughable
how bad that team is.
11. I know the Lions will beat the Bears, 28-25 tomorrow night. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson shine under the lights and keep their pre-bye week momentum going.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the
untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is
my favorite article each week.
Regular readers are familiar with my Separated at Birth segment (please keep sending suggestions), but it's time to unveil a new idea: Perfect Combo. Put simply, it's a person that reminds me of a perfect combination of two other people.
I'll admit this isn't the best way to start off because I don't have pictures available of two of the three people involved, but just trust me this is a good idea.
X Factor's Jason Brock is a Perfect Combo of pre-skinny Rob Giesecke and Bill Vastardis('s hair).
Only a few people know these individuals, but I'm not sure I could have a more Perfect Combo.
The Good:
-Went 9-3 overall
-Making money in both college and pro football. Always a good week when that happens.
-Aaron Rodgers responding to my calling him out with a monster performance. Welcome back.
-Louisiana Tech fighting back for a borderline-miracle cover despite being down 27 in the first half. Loved that.
-The Saints had a bye week and watched the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers, and Cardinals all lose. Just get to the playoffs baby.
The (Very) Bad:
-West Virginia losing outright to Texas Tech. It was bad enough they couldn't cover but losing the game crushed their (any my) BCS hopes
-San Diego choking away a 24-point halftime lead which cost me the game and hurts my Broncos under 8.5 wins bet. Double whammy.
"Avoid road favorites like the plague" is usually my MO, but I'm going completely against my own advice this week and hoping not to jinx myself.
College Football
Oregon -9.5 (at Arizona State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Iowa State +14 (at Oklahoma State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Miami +21 (vs Florida State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Tennessee +21 (vs Alabama): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
Teaser- Oregon Pk (at Arizona State) with Michigan Pk (vs Michigan State) with South Carolina +13 (at Florida): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.0 units
NFL
Seahawks +7 (at 49ers): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units Push
Ravens +6 (at Texans): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Cowboys -1.5 (at Panthers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Saints -3 (at Bucs): 2.5 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Oregon Pk (at Arizona State) with Packers +4.5 (at St Louis) with Patriots -0.5 (vs Jets): 6.0 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units
Packers to win NFC: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Cowboys to win NFC:2.5 units to win 43.8 units Yes, I now have three of the 16 NFC teams to win the conference
EPL
Stoke City +1.5 (at ManU): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Everton -0.5 (at QPR): 2.5 units to win 2.8 units L - 2.5 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units
Made some units in real football, lost some in English football.
Highlights:
-the Patriots victory - my highest conviction game of the week - was big;
-West Virginia came up huge as they won by three points (I teased Texas to +3.5) staying in the Big 12 and BCS title hunt, nicely done Mountaineers
Lowlights:
-right before kickoff on Sunday, the Bengals dropped to -3. I wasn't even thinking of making a play on this game but thought that price was impossible to pass up
-Northwestern pulling a typical Northwestern move and choking away a game in the fourth quarter
College Football
Pittsburgh +3 (vs Louisville): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Oklahoma -3 (vs Texas): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Wisconsin +2 (at Purdue): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Miami FL +7 (vs North Carolina): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
West Virginia -4 (at Texas Tech): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Stanford +9 (at Notre Dame): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Louisiana Tech +8 (vs Texas A&M): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Rutgers +3 (vs Syracuse) with Kansas State +3.5 (at Iowa State) with USC -3 (at Washington): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
NFL
St. Louis +3.5 (at Miami): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Detroit +4.5 (at Philly): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Green Bay +4 (at Houston): 4.4 units to win 4.0 units W - 4.0 units
San Diego -2 (vs Denver): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Saints to win the NFC: 2.5 units to win 50.0 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Romney for President: 2.5 units to win 5.0 units
1. I know that now is the time to admit that I was wrong about Andrew Luck. This dude is seriously talented and has done the impossible, revitalized a downtrodden Indianapolis franchise. This week's victory over the Packers may have been the game of the year, and the Colts have Luck to thank. Sure, he made some mistakes and missed some open receivers but he brought his team back from a 21-3 first half deficit and a 27-22 fourth quarter deficit. After all the pre-draft hype, I thought Luck was overrated, but amazingly he has lived up to the billing so far and the future looks unbelievably bright in Indy. Chuck Pagano is smiling.
2. I know I cannot figure Cam Newton out. Last year's top pick is an enigma to me and probably anyone else following the NFL. He was terrible two weeks ago, very good last week, and then awful again today with the lowlight coming on 4th-and-1 from the 1-yard line and under five minutes left in the game when he short-armed a wide open receiver with what would have been a lead-changing touchdown. Very confusing.
3. I know the Vikings can win the NFC North. The Packers look like the unluckiest team in football, the Lions can't play defense or special teams, and the Bears really cannot play offense (although the defense scores enough touchdowns they might not need to). Their next five games are very winnable: at Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, at Seattle, Detroit. Then they play Chicago two out of three weeks after that. Can Christian Ponder keep up this Trent Dilfer-esque performance going? Sure. Speaking of the Pack, they need to travel to Houston to take on the undefeated Texans next week.
4. I know the Bengals are a fraud. They beat Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville and fooled a whole lot of people into believing they were actually a good football team. For some reason, these people, myself included, overlooked an opening week blowout in Baltimore. After losing at home to a poor to very poor Miami team, I am ready to write this team off as being any kind of threat this season.
5. I know the Rams, Cardinals, Ravens, and Chiefs set organized offensive football back about 20 years. The Jaguars and Titans were equally as pathetic but at least the Bears and Rams showed some semblance of a clue in those games. It's hard to fathom how terrible Blaine Gabbert really is.
6. I know I love when people with the same name play each other. This week we had: Kyle Williams (Buffalo) vs Kyle Williams (San Fran); Gronkowski (Denver) vs Gronkowski (New England); and James Franklin (Vanderbilt head coach) vs James Franklin (Missouri QB). Good times.
7. I know the Steelers got a much, much, much needed victory at home against the Eagles. Falling 2.5 games behind Baltimore would have been a huge hole, but they remain within striking distance. Rashard Mendenhall looked pretty good in his return and offers a little balance to a team that was too reliant on the pass.
8. I know that either sharps or Chad Millman are lying. There is no way that sharps always move the line in a direction that favors them; however, according to his tweets every Sunday, it appears that every single line the sharps got early (ie before the betting public) did just that as they got better numbers than what was available at gametime. I will be rooting against the sharps until this stupid pattern stops:
9. I know I liked: Ryan Kerrigan's TAINT (high grades for athleticism); the old guards (Reggie Wayne and Tony Gonzalez) can still play; Josh Gordon and Victor Cruz making the most of their combined seven catches, scoring five touchdowns; Donal Brown's two-point conversion celebration which included the discount double check and the Raji dance; Peyton Manning losing.
10. I know I didn't like: Chris Johnson's effort; thinking Tennessee would be good this year; the Vikings giving the ball to Toby Gerhart on 3rd-and-1 instead of Adrian Peterson; the 49ers using Colin Kaepernick as a running back; Kansas City fans booing an injured Matt Cassel (they had plenty of time to boo him when he sucked); the clutchness of Mason Crosby; Jon Beason being injured, again; RG III being injured.
11. I know the Texans will beat the Jets, 74 to -6. Yes, -6. I cannot watch Mark Sanchez for much longer.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the
untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is
my favorite article each week.
This has been a great weekend of sports with college football and the baseball playoffs in full swing with a nice slate of NFL games coming today.
-Friday started with the nonsensical infield fly ruling. How on Earth would they have turned a double play from short left field? Wouldn't happen so the rule should not have been enforced. Even worse than the call itself was the media trying to explain it by saying umpire Sam Holbrook was not used to being positioned in left field which caused his mistake? What?? That's one of the most pathetic excuses I have ever heard. This guy is a professional umpire. Being 50 feet away from where he is normally stationed made him make an awful call? Come on, man!
-Later that night, the never say die Orioles started Joe Saunders, yes that Joe Saunders in a must-win game. What happened? Of course, they won. This team can do nothing wrong right now despite having the most no-named pitching staff in playoff baseball history. Name three members of their starting rotation... still waiting...still waiting.... Buck Showalter is a magician.
-On Saturday, Matt McGloin, aka "the worst starting quarterback in college football", covered a 3-point spread costing me a few dollars units.I'm happy for Penn State and Bill O'Brien but watching McGloin succeed really irritates me. His touchdown dive and celebration combo were laughably pathetic, almost as pathetic as Northwestern's fourth quarter defense which surrendered an 11-point lead to McGloin and Co. I like Pat Fitzgerald and always root for the Wildcats, but this guy needs to win a big game at some point, right?
-Can Rutgers be this year's BCS buster? They are 5-0 after beating UConn and don't face a ranked opponent until November 29th when they host Louisville in their season finale. Could a 12-0 Rutgers play for the BCS title? Very doubtful but you never know.
-Gene Chizik must feel like Cam Newton graduated, err left school, 7 years ago. It's been less than two but his seat is getting HOT at Auburn.
-Your 2012 Fraud of the Year: Virginia Tech. I thought these guys were supposed to be good. (Please do not let the Jets spend a high first round pick on QB Logan Thomas. Have some mercy on me.)
-How about those Mountaineers? West Virginia was my pick to win the BCS title this year and so far so good.
-There were three matchups featuring two top-11 teams yesterday. The aforementioned Mountaineers survived Texas 48-45; Florida squeaked by LSU in a snoozer, 14-6; and South Carolina destroyed Georgia.
-The upset of the year so far occurred in Raleigh when NC State knocked off #3 Florida State. Patting myself on the back alert: I have now teased two 14.5 point underdogs in the last three weeks that have won outright (Kansas State over Oklahoma and NC State last night).
-To recap, the numbers 3, 4, and 5 teams all lost yesterday.
-Also Memphis won for only the fourth time since October 10, 2009! Good for them.
-As a nightcap, both baseball teams I was rooting for - the Tigers and Reds - won.
I love seeing my season records for all three sports in the black.
A sweep of the college football and EPL slates on Saturday got us off to a nice start, and a last-minute parlay hit sealed a great week (+21.9 units). It might be a little early to write off my Browns and Chiefs division champ futures, but I'll give that a few more weeks to play out.
Geno Smith has West Virginia looking incredible on offense, but that defense is a-tro-cious, and no one seems to be talking about it. We'll see what kind of team they are over the next few games.
College Football
Northwestern +3 (at Penn State): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.6 units
Oklahoma -4.5 (at Texas Tech): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Clemson Pk (vs Georgia Tech) with NC State +24.5 (vs Florida State) with Texas +3.5 (vs West Virginia): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
NFL
Eagles +3.5 (at Steelers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Panthers -3 (vs Seahawks): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Bengals -3 (vs Dolphins): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
Patriots -7 (vs Broncos): 5.5 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units
Chargers +3.5 (at Saints): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Teaser- 49ers Pk (vs Buffalo) with Patriots +3 (vs Denver) with Giants Pk (vs Cleveland): 6.0 units to win 5.0 units W - 5.0 units
EPL
West Brom W (vs QPR): 3.1 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Swansea City W (vs Reading): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.9 units
West Ham +0.5 goals (vs Arsenal): 3.1 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.1 units
Stoke City +1 goal (at Liverpool): 2.5 units to win 2.6 units W - 2.6 units
Newcastle / Manchester United over 3 goals: 2.5 units to win 2.6 units Push
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
I had a conversation at work the other day which got me
thinking about which day of the week was the worst. It’s commonly assumed most
people hate Mondays most, but Monday escapes the bottom two for me. Here’s how
I rank the days of the week with a brief explanation. Debate away.
Note: I left the NBA,
NHL, and MLB out as games fall on any day of the week and don’t really tip the
scales for one day over another.
Saturday: No brainer, top choice. I don’t have to work; can
enjoy the entire day, stay up as late as I want, drink as much as I want
knowing I have the Sunday security blanket; college sports also peak on
Saturdays with both basketball and football seeing full slates; most English Premier
League games happen; and the NFL throws Saturday a bone late in the year with a
few regular season games for America to enjoy on the best day of the week and
playoff games also occur on Saturdays.
Sunday: Again, no work which is huge but not as good as
Saturday because the threat of work the next day looms large; the 17 NFL
regular season Sundays of the year all fall into my top 50 days of the year; golf
and tennis tournaments usually end on Sundays; some early EPL games are on
which is nice when you have a kid that doesn’t sleep; rednecks love NASCAR
Sundays; very popular day for big family dinners.
Thursday: I’m expecting this to be the first surprise on the
list but sneakily Thursday is an enjoyable day with a lot of sports activity
plus the weekend is finally in sight; the NFL plays 15 Thursday games a year; the
first round of the NFL Draft is now on Thursdays; college football has a
somewhat marquee game on Thursday each week; the NBA Draft is held on a Thursday;
it’s a popular day to go out; March Madness starts on a Thursday; and best of
all my favorite day of the year - Thanksgiving - falls on Thursday which bumps
it above Friday for me.
Friday: Weekend countdown officially begins, can usually
dress casually at work; it’s a good night to go out but not a ton of sporting
events with everyone prepping for Saturday; March Madness Day 2 happens on
Friday; the second and third rounds of the NFL Draft occur.
Monday: The day with the worst reputation is actually better
than the next two days on the list, in my opinion; typically, you are still
riding high from the weekend with big plans for the week ahead; many holidays
are scheduled for Monday (MLK, Presidents, Memorial, and Labor Days) giving you
three-day weekend possibilities; the NFL plays games every Monday night from
September through December; the EPL schedules a few games on Mondays; the BCS
Title game happens on a Monday; college basketball final occurs on a Monday;
MLB home run derby is also a Monday event.
...they aren't that bad at all.
Wednesday: Kind of a no-man’s land during the week falling
directly between two weekends; still too early to get excited about the
upcoming weekend but memories have faded of the past weekend; I can’t think of
anything memorable or significant that happens on a Wednesday but at least you
are one day closer to the weekend than you were on Tuesday.
Related note- Is it
just me or don’t you think everyone in the world - zero exceptions - would be significantly
more productive if we made Wednesdays a day off in the middle of the week,
breaking work down into two mini two-day weeks. You wouldn’t sign up for this? I
would even if it meant working more total hours on the four work days.
Tuesday: The most blah day of the week plus, the upcoming weekend
is still out of sight. I can only think of two things of note that happen on
Tuesday and neither excites me at all: MLB All Star Game and the women’s
college basketball final; when the women’s college basketball final is the
highlight of your day, you know you are in trouble. Tuesdays suck.
I'm still riding high extremely high off last week's rollercoaster where I had five, yes 5!, last minute covers. I can't remember that ever happening in my favor, so you will hear absolutely no complaints here. It was a nice week for 'dogs which is what I predicted. Almost back to even on the college side.
Trying to stay hot but I see a lot fewer opportunities than I did a week ago (only teasers in college this week).
College Football
Teaser- Notre Dame +5 (covered last week) with Kansas State +24.5 (covered last week) with Ravens -2: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Ravens -2 with Baylor +21 (at West Virginia) with Cal +11 (vs Arizona State): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Missouri +12.5 (at Central Florida) with Wisconsin +21.5 (at Nebraska) with Texas +7.5 (at Oklahoma State): 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
NFL
Ravens / Browns over 43.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Falcons -7 (vs Panthers): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units L - 2.8 units
Chargers Pk (at Chiefs): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Ravens -2 with Patriots +6 with Bengals +9: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Teaser- Lions +2 with Packers -1.5: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units L - 3.0 units
Parlay- Patriots -4 with Chargers Pk with Redskins +2.5: 2.0 units to win 13.0 units W - 13.0 units
EPL
Sunderland Win (vs Wigan): 2.6 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
Everton -1.5 (vs Southampton): 2.5 units to win 2.5 units W - 2.5 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
1. I know that I am insane. How do I know this? The Jets are doing the same thing they have done for the last three years - entrusting games to Mark Sanchez, failing to have any real playmakers that didn't play college ball in the Big 10, depending too much on a defense that will inevitably suffer a crippling injury (please let Revis be ok) - and yet I still expect a different outcome. It's not happening this year, but of couse I will be disappointed when they lose in the first round of the playoffs again in January.
2. I know the coolest play call of the day was made by the Bengals on the first snap of the game. Putting draft ragdoll Mo Sanu in the Wildcat only to have him hit AJ Green on a bomb was awesome to watch. Props.
3. I know we can put a fork in the Saints this year. Call it karma or regression or whatever else you want, but blowing an 18-point second half lead at home against the lowly Chiefs simply will not get it done. They should just tank the rest of the season to try to get the Reggie Bush 2.0 with the number two overall pick in 2013 (half kidding). Speaking of Kansas City, despite how brutal they were for the first 10 quarters of this season, they are only a game out of first place in the pathetic AFC West and can jump into first with a home victory against the Chargers in Week 4.
4. I know I am sick of Peyton Manning. I hope DirecTV, Sprint, Papa John's, and Buick signed Manning to one-year deals. Love the fact the Broncos are sitting at 1-2 thanks in large part to slow starts from the Chosen One. The schedule doesn't get much easier in the short term either. Their next six are: Oakland, at New England, at San Diego, New Orleans, at Cincy, at Carolina. I need Sunday Ticket. How else can I watch the Broncos sputter to a 2-7 start?
5. I know quarterbacks in this league still don't know when to spike the ball and when not to in the two-minute drill. Two examples today of when they should not have spiked at the end of the first half- Andrew Luck with 42 seconds left facing first and goal with a timeout in hand (there's still plenty of time to run three plays) and Big Ben with 28 seconds left and his team already at the line of scrimmage. The spike is a wasted down with that much time left on the clock. Maximize your chances for a touchdown.
6. I know the Cardinals are the most pleasant surprise in the NFL. 3-0? Are you serious? Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, doesn't matter who is under center. This team will compete every week thanks to their defense. Good to see old favorite Kerry Rhodes making a difference in the desert.
7. I know these are some things I hated this week: Randy Moss is just going through the motions and needs to be released; the Colts allowing the Blaine Gabbert / Cecil Shorts combo to beat them; San Diego's effort in a show-me-where-you-really-stack-up game; Carolina failing to show up to a nationally televised game; Detroit's defense; the fact the Texans already have a magic number to clinch the AFC South; the utter lack of control displayed by these replacement refs; being left hanging:
I have been left hanging on a number of high-5s but never on national TV
8. I know that these are some things I loved this week: Torrey Smith's touchdown; Shaun Hill coming off the bench to lead a miracle comeback; the Lions-Titans game in general; the RedZone Channel (you will see this almost every week); Greg Schiano sticking with his guns; Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan's play.
9. I know Brandon Weeden is Tim Couch reincarnated. Huge college numbers, rocket arm, background in another sport, first round pick destined to fail in Cleveland. Dudes even look similar. Browns fans should hope Weeden can at least find a playmate to marry like Couch did so they have something to look forward to.
10. I know the top three celebrations today were (in order) Jared Odrick' Pee Wee Herman, Nate Burleson's pregnant woman impression, and Jed Collins' hips don't lie. In any other week, these would be no brainer top choices but these dudes pulled out all the stops probably because none of the three ever has much to celebrate so they use their best material when they do.
11. I know the Packers will beat the Seahawks 24-19 tomorrow night. Seattle has the best homefield advantage in the NFL. Green Bay has the best player in the NFL. Take talent every time.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the
untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is
my favorite article each week.
Pretty solid week going 3-0 in the NFL. I did take the write-down of Arkansas winning the BCS championship which hurts a little, but that was bound to happen soon after their choke-job against LA-Monroe two weeks ago. Glad the USC number never got to 7 or I would have been onboard there, but instead had no college action this weekend.
My futures aren't looking so hot right now but plenty of season to play. The Browns have been the most disappointing team thus far to me as they could be 2-0 with a few better bounces and the Bills on tap this weekend. Not to be though.
I'm hoping for a nice upset weekend across the board.
College Football
LA-Monroe +7.5 (vs Baylor): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Rutgers +7 (at Arkansas): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Clemson +14 (at Florida State): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Ball State +10.5 (vs South Florida): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Oregon/Arizona Over 77.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - L 2.8 units
Teaser- Notre Dame +5 with Kansas State +24.5 with OPEN: 3.0 units to win 2.5 units Pending
NFL
Jets -2.5 (at Dolphins): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Rams +8 (at Bears): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - L 2.8 units
Bucs +7 (at Cowboys): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Parlay- Texans Win with Ravens Win: 2.5 units to win 5.1 units - W 5.1 units
Packers/Seahawks Under 47.5: 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
Very frustrating week losing two games by a touchdown or less.
College Football
I have a wedding Saturday, and it's really not fun betting on games that you can't watch so I'm taking Saturday off... unless USC drops to -7 or less at which point I will be taking them. The spread is at 8.5 right now so this is a doubtful outcome.
NFL
Halftime Score: Packers -3 (vs Bears): 2.9 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Packers -5.5 (vs Bears): 2.8 units to win 2.5 units - W 2.5 units
Falcons -3: 6.0 units to win 5.0 units - W 5.0 units
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Arkansas to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units - This will likely be written down after they get walloped by 'Bama this weekend.
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
1. I know RGIII is the real deal. It took less than a quarter to squash any Ryan Leaf/second pick of the draft bust chatter. He looked in complete control of the offense, and the game in general, from the start and Redskins fans finally (FINALLY!) have their man under center. He's easy to root for, his teammates love him, and he just looks like a great dude. Something everyone in DC can agree upon.
By the way, as cool as RGIII is, that's how diametrically opposite of cool Saints punter/kickoff specialist Tom Morestead's pony/rat tail is.
Are you serious with that weak sauce, Morestead?
2. I know Alex Smith looked better than Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. Read that again. Shocking but true.
Also, San Francisco's backup QB Colin Kaepernick looks identical to Nomar Garciaparra in a helmet. Check it out.
3. I know the Lions saved their season - yes, their season, with a comeback win against the Rams. In order for this team to go deep into the playoffs, they need homefield advantage. Absolutely need to have it. QB Matt Stafford looked shaky in the first half but seemed to settle in after the half and put the team on his back in the last two minutes. It wasn't pretty, but a win's a win. Stafford leads the Lions into San Fran to face Smith and the 49ers next week.
4. I know Matt Ryan looked great, but the Chiefs were missing their best cornerback, Brandon Flowers, and pass-rusher, Tamba Hali. Before you get your panties in a bunch, let's watch him against a team with a stout defense - like Denver in Week 2. Julio Jones has officially surpassed Roddy White as Matty Ice's target of choice too.
5. I know my outlook on the Browns and Jets season openers was spot on. I just didn't know Brandon Weeden would be so terrible.
Here's what I wrote about Cleveland:
Back in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Browns made a concerted effort to improve a defense that finished in the bottom 10 the prior season by using their top two picks on Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard. It worked.Cleveland’s defense finished in the top 10 of yards allowed and the top 5 in points allowed which is an impressive feat since their offense was flat out terrible (13.6 points per game). In this year’s draft, the Browns used their top three picks (all in the top 37 overall) on the offensive side of the ball, Trent Richardson-Brandon Weeden-Mitchell Schwartz. Then, they grabbed WR Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft over the summer. Will it make a difference? I’m guessing it will be enough to make their offense average, which is a huge improvement. I’m also guessing that Philly will be looking past this game a little bit knowing that six of their next seven opponents have a legit chance of reaching the playoffs this season. Michael Vick might be “healthy” coming into the game, but he was knocked out of both preseason games with injuries. He’s also a glorified running back (with a hose piece) and running backs don’t tend to age well after they hit 30. He’s 32. I might look like a fool, but I’m all in on the Browns this week (also crossing my fingers that Joe Haden's suspension gets overturned).
And the Jets:
If home field is worth 3 points in the NFL, I have to think the Jets are the better team straight up. Throw preseason numbers out the window. They do not matter. Now, I don’t think the Wildcat is going to revolutionize this Jets offense, but there’s no way they can be as bad as they were over the last month. Plus, this team will rely on its defense to win ballgames and the offense not to screw things up too badly.New York has also won seven of the last eight against the Bills, including two wins by a total of 20 points last season. Is Mario Williams a great player? Absolutely, but I don’t think he’s enough to swing the scales.
6. I know Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson will not be starting by Week 8.
7. I know that the RedZone Channel is the best thing to happen to my football watching experience since the yellow first down marker. Holy crap, it's great. Can't say enough good things about it. Scott Hanson does a really nice job in the studio and always finishes stories he starts even if it takes a few minutes and is separated by a few other look-ins. No commercial, constant football watching is incredible. If you don't have the RZC, go change your cable provider.
8. I know the non-QB MVP this week was Vikikngs K Blair Walsh who hit a 55-yard field goal to force overtime. Temendous job.
9. I know for all the talk of how terrible the replacements refs would be, they did a good enough job to be a non-issue in Week 1 and hopefully will never ne heard from again.
10. I know the most disappointing team of the week was the Carolina Panthers. If you want respect, you need to beat teams like Tampa Bay no matter the location. (Green Bay at least lost to a solid football team.)
11. I know the Ravens will win 24-14, and the Chargers will win 27-17 on Monday Night Football. I also know that I love the NFL's new schedule of having a midweek game every week for the first four months of the season. We only have to wait until Thursday for more games.
"11 Things I Know I Know" is my feeble attempt to trump the untrumpable SI.com's Peter King and his "10 Things I Think I Think" is my favorite article each week.
It’s only week one of betting, err, football season and already
I’ve learned a lesson: be extremely mindful of teasers. I went 2-1 picking
games straight up last week in college football but got a little too cute
trying to tease some big ‘dogs into even bigger ‘dogs. That was a mistake as I
went 0-2 there. If I go back to teasers, which I will this week but probably
not much in the future, I will make a concerted effort only to tease favorites in
the 7-10 point range down to around even.
A 10-point favorite should win at close to an 83% clip. Three 10-point favorites should win (.83^3) 57%
of the time. If my vig is less than 7%, this is a solid wager. Let me know if
you disagree with my logic here.
College Football
New Mexico State +21 (at Ohio): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
New Mexico +38 (at Texas): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
Arkansas State -23 (vs Memphis): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
Oklahoma State / Arizona over 69.5: 3.0 units to win 2.7
units (W -2.7 units)
NFL
Browns +8.5 (vs Eagles): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (W -2.7 units)
Chiefs +1 (vs Falcons): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units (L -3 units)
Chargers -1 (at Raiders): 3.0 units to win 2.7 units
Teaser: Texans Pk / Lions +1 / Ravens +4: 3.0 units to win 2.5
units (>7% vig so I understand value is not great but like big home
favorites in Week 1)
NFL Futures
Browns to win the AFC North: 2.5 units to win 50 units
Chiefs to win the AFC West: 2.5 units to win 7.5 units
Broncos under 8.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 3.5 units
Steelers under 9.5 wins: 2.5 units to win 2.9 units
Eli throws more TDs than Peyton: 4.1 units to win 2.5 units
US Open
Janko Tipsarevic over David Ferrer: 2.5 units to win 5.8 units (hedging my
Ferrer to win the Open wager) - Backfired on me as now NoJoke is a -1300 favorite over Ferrer in the semis which makes hedging a poor move. Unless Ferrer pulls the stunner, I cost myself 2.5 units with this hedge
West Virginia to win Big 12: 2.5 units to win 12.5 units
West Virginia to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
Arkansas to win BCS: 2.5 units to win 43.8 units
David Ferrer to win US Open: 2.5 units to win 87.5 units
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