Preview: New Orleans Bowl (12/18)

New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
	Category		Ohio		Troy		Edge
	Nickname		Bobcats		Trojans		Troy
	Record		8-4		7-5		Ohio
	Proximity		953mi		312mi		Troy
	Points Per Game		28		33		Troy
	Points Allowed Per Game		22		31		Ohio
	Streaking		Won 7 of last 8		Won last 2		Troy
	Last Game		L @ Kent St., 28-6		W @ Florida Atlantic, 44-7		Troy
	Passing Yards		158		288		Troy
	Passing Yards Allowed		218		248		Ohio
	Rushing Yards		169		153		Ohio
	Rushing Yards Allowed		115		171		Ohio
	Yardage Disparity		-6		22		Troy
	Best Win		@ Miami (OH) - 10/23		@ Florida Atlantic - 12/4		Ohio
	Key Stat / Player		14th fewest rushing yards vs.		12th most passing yards / game		Troy
	Spread		O/U 59		-2		--
	Predicted Score		27		41		Troy

Early MNF Thoughts

**Game Situation: Giants have second and goal from the Vikings' seven-yard line with eight seconds left in the first half leading 7-3.

 

My idea: As soon as Eli Manning dropped back to pass, I think the Vikings should have tackled every eligible receiver immediately.

 

Why: This would have taken at least four seconds and would have resulted in a four-yard penalty. So, the Giants would have had first and goal from the three with four seconds to play. At that point, there is a 100% chance the Giants kick a field goal to ensure scoring points before the half.

 

What Actually Happened: Manning completed a seven-yard pass to Kevin Boss for the touchdown, a 14-3 lead, and ultimately the game [Note: I'm calling this at halftime].

 

You have to think outside the box a little.

 

 

**Does Brett Favre have the biggest right hand you've ever seen? There are no jokes attached to this. His hand is enormous.

 

 

**Gross uniforms, Houston. Has any team EVER been successful in the all reds?

 

 

Bowl Previews

Beginning tomorrow, I'll be rolling out bowl previews with predictions. These are meant as quick, one-stop-shopping-type previews, but if you have feedback or suggestions, I'm all ears.

Week 14: 11 Things I Know I Know

1. I know the Jets are in deep deep sh!t. Mark Sanchez could not have looked worse than he has the last two weeks. While the defense has been solid (save last week's debacle), the offense has been stagnant. Brian Schottenheimer and crew need to go back to the drawing board and quickly as they travel to Pittsburgh and Chicago the next two weeks. Thankfully for them and all their fans, they have a two game cushion in the wild card.

2. I know that Sam Bradford made the biggest mistake of the day. With the Rams down eight and driving towards a score at the end of the first half, he threw an interception to Malcolm Jenkins which was returned for a score. Instead of a 14-13 or even 14-9 halftime score, the Saints led 21-6 going into the break. A chance blown. I still trust in Sam - and the Rams still lead the NFC West - but this one hurts. The loss coupled with the 49ers victory over the Seahawks means the three teams are only separated by a game. Meanwhile, the Saints have quietly won six games in a row. Hard to believe the defending Super Bowl champs could do anything quietly, but it's happened.

3. I know Jordan Shipley should take out a life insurance policy. Carson Palmer is giving Mark Sanchez a run for his money in the battle for worst quarterback play. He threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns and made countless awful reads that nearly got his receivers - Shipley in particular - killed.

4. I know luck matters as the Bucs can attest. A blown PAT allowed Tampa Bay to walk away with a 17-16 road victory at Washington. If either the Giants or Eagles lose, there will be a three-way tie for the final wild card spot in the NFC.

5. I know the Green Bay Packers have a brutal schedule (at New England, vs NYG, vs Chicago) compounding the potential problem of being without QB Aaron Rodgers for a while. Rodgers was concussed in today's loss against Detroit with no word of when he may return. Matt Flynn was forced into action and he too looked awful (notice the running theme of the week: the NFL has a talent shortage at the quarterback position). The loss was inexcusable.

6. I know the Chargers took care of business to save their season as expected. It was a dominant effort on both sides of the ball (total yards: 426-67) made a bit easier by the fact Brodie Croyle was playing quarterback for the Chiefs. San Diego is only a game out of first place in the AFC West. Had they lost, they would have been eliminated from playoff contention.

7. I know the Raiders choked away a golden opportunity. They too could have been a game behind the Chiefs (with all tiebreakers in their favor), but they could not hold either of the 10-point leads they had against Team Excitement (Jacksonville). Then after fighting back to tie the game at 31 with under two minutes to play, they allowed a monster kickoff return followed by a 30-yard touchdown run from MVP MJD. Oakland now finds themselves two games back and all but out of playoff contention. What a waste of a 200+ yard, three touchdown day from Run DMC. The win allowed the Jags to stay a game up on the Colts. Those two teams play in Indy on Sunday.

8. I know New England and Atlanta are the two best teams in the NFL. Both teams looked nearly unbeatable this week and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs unless something unforeseen happens. Carolina fans can start purchasing their Andrew Luck jersies.

9. I know Jay Feely had a career day scoring 25 points, including his team's first 22 on five field goals, a rushing touchdown on a fake field goal, and an extra point. Decent day, Jay.

10. I know the Giants will beat the Vikings 38-34. The Giants catch a nice break with this game being played in Detroit as the fans figure to be rooting against the enemy Vikings.

11. I know the Ravens will beat the Texans 26-24. This game should not be close, but Monday Night Football has a way of bringing out the best in underdogs. I think the Texans ride the wave of the crowd to make things interesting.

NFL: Week 14 Picks

Browns +1 - Two huge factors in play here- 1) Jake Delhomme on the road, and 2) A team with two wins being favored. As much as it kills me to do, I think I have to take the point based on principal alone.

 

Dolphins +6 - As mentioned in last week's "11 Things," the Dolphins seem to play well after a loss. Plus, the Jets are in panic mode right now. I don't think they win outright, but I do think Miami keeps it close.

 

Cowboys +3.5 - Dallas has covered in all four games that Jason Garrett has been the head coach. They play hard for the guy, and it shows on the scoreboard.

 

Best Bet: Rams +10 - St. Louis can keep this game close. In Sam I trust. 

 

Upset: Seahawks +5.5 - As crazy as it sounds, if San Fran can win this game, they might (depending on the Rams-Saints outcome) be only a game back of the division lead. Unfortunately, the 49ers just aren't very good.

 

Record: 37-26-2 (Best Bet: 8-5; Upset 5-6-2)

BBA Day

Today is National Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) Day.

For baseball fans, you should check out both the site - http://baseballbloggersalliance.com/ - and the iPhone / iPad app (below).

I joined last month and am thrilled to be a part of the group.

$15m + A Second Round Pick for Scott Downs?

All 17 Blue Jays' fans rejoice. You just got a supplemental first round and second round pick for Scott Downs.

Here is your runner-up prize for the Carl Crawford Derby, Angels' fans. Signing a lefty reliever to a monster deal worked out swimmingly last time for you (see Fuentes, Brian). I'm sure you are thrilled.

Multiple Choice: One of These Four Will Be _____ ?

A) Giving back the 2010 Heisman Trophy by 2014.

B) Returned to the corn fields after a brief stint in the CFL.

C) The first overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

D) Eating off the kid's menu until he's 40.

E) All of the above.

These four look more likely to be finalists for the 2010 Thomas Jefferson High School science fair than the 2010 Heisman Trophy, but one of them will get to bring home the trophy on Saturday night...at least for now.

(Correct answer: E.)

Thanks for the clarification / math lesson, Buster

So...

7 years, $142m > 6 years, $108m

Glad that's settled.

Separated at Birth?

Memphis fan-favorite PF Angel Garcia and NFL TE (and Chaminade alumnus) JP Foschi

Carlos Pena, The Pirates, and Other Winter Meeting Thoughts From 1,100 Miles Away

In one of the most boring days of Winter Meeting history, the big news centered around Carlos Pena and a whole bunch of relative nobodies.

 

 

*Unless the Cubs have - many - more moves planned, I do not understand their signing of Carlos Pena to a 1-year, $10m deal. Pena is one of my favorite players in the game (love his swing), but here are my issues: 

 

1- He doesn't offer a huge upgrade to Derrek Lee. With Lee, the Cubs went 75-87 last season. Again, maybe they are planning more upgrades, but six players will account for $91m of salary this season. How many more players can they afford?

2- They paid a premium on him. $10m has to be above market value for a player that has struggled a bit the past two seasons.

3- (Biggest issue) Why one year? If he has a monster year, he'll walk. If he has a terrible year, they overpaid him. Mix in an option, Chicago.

4- Contracts in excess of $10m per season haven't worked out well for Chicago. Soriano, ARamirez, Zambrano, Fukudome...

 

This deal only works if he plays well but not great.

 

*In an apparent attempt to corner the market on 20th Round fantasy baseball picks, the Pirates have signed Matt Diaz, Kevin Correia, and Scott Olsen while reportedly targeting Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman, and Brendan Ryan. These moves will almost assuredly guarantee a 60-win season in 2011.

 

*Exciting news about some Japanese players...or not:

 

-Koji Uehara will likely stay put in Baltimore.

-The Kenshin Kawakami trade talks seem to be going nowhere.

-Hideki Matsui has garnered some interest but has not been offered a contract.

-The Tsuyoshi Nishioka-Twins talks have slowed to a crawl.

 

*I love that the Royals are expected to sign (or have singed) Jeff Francouer. It warms my heart and again confirms that I should have Dayton Moore's job.

 

*I like the Carl Pavano to Milwaukee rumors. The Brewers love to pay overachievers after big years. Suppan, Wolf, Pavano.... and so on.

Carl Crawford, the Mariners, and Other Winter Meeting Thoughts From 1,100 Miles Away

*This occurred to me a few weeks back. Carl Crawford has been widely heralded as the best left fielder in the game for quite some time. If a team is going to spend boku dollars on him, doesn't it make sense to at least consider him as a center fielder? 

 

*How quickly would the Dodgers have said yes to an offer of Prince Fielder for James Loney and JBrox? I would guess 0.00001 seconds and that includes a phone delay. That cannot be a real offer from Milwaukee.

 

*Fixing the Mariners in three "easy" steps

 

1: Trade Dustin Ackley and Blake Beaven to the Royals for Zack Greinke. The M's cash in on Ackley before the league realizes he will never hit for power. They have some time, though, as Dayton Moore is the last to know everything anyway. Seattle would have the best 1-2 combo in baseball (they had this last year too before dealing Cliff Lee, but I digress) with King Felix and Greinke. The Royals would have six years' worth of control of an incredible Eric Hosmer-Ackley-Christian Colon-Mike Moustakas-Wil Myers infield. Sprinkle in some Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Aaron Crow, and Brett Eibner and the Royals could win the AL Central by 2013.

 

2: Trade Michael Pineda, Rich Poythress, and Nick Franklin to the Brewers for Prince Fielder. If rumors are to be believed, this deal would crush the Dodgers' offer of Loney-Broxton, and would give Milwaukee a number three starter behind Yovani Gallardo and newly-acquired Shaun Marcum. Fielder would provide Seattle with the power threat in the middle of the lineup that they desperately lack. Remember, Jack Z used to work for Doug Melvin.

 

3: Sign Adrian Beltre. His first go-round in Seattle didn't go as planned, but he would slot perfectly into this lineup, both offensively as a right-handed power bat and defensively.

 

That would leave Seattle with this:

 

Rotation: Felix, Greinke, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French/Erik Bedard

 

Lineup: Ichiro RF, Chone Figgins 2B, Franklin Gutierrez CF, Fielder 1B, Beltre 3B, Justin Smoak DH, Milton Bradley/Michael Saunders LF, Adam Moore C, Jack Wilson SS

 

Obvious Questions:

 

-Can they afford to make these moves? Re-sign Fielder? 

 

-They had better win now because they are trading their best long-term assets. Are they willing to do that?

 

Two More Thoughts:

 

The defense would still be great, keeping Jack Z happy.

 

Likelihood of these moves happening > Likelihood of Brewers accepting Loney/Brox for Prince... but not by much.

 

*The D'backs gave away Mark Reynolds for next-to-nothing. I love this move from the Orioles perspective as neither Kam Mickolio or David Hernandez will ever be more than middle relievers despite their mid-90's fastballs. How has Arizona made themselves better this offseason? To me, they haven't (is JJ Putz really the savior to an historically terrible bullpen?). This has the makings of two consecutive dismal offseasons, and they haven't even traded Justin Upton yet.

 

*The Mets should trade Carlos Beltran to any team willing to eat his entire 2011 salary. With the money saved, maybe they can buy out Luis Castillo and Olly Perez and look ahead to 2012.

 

*I think the Red Sox-Padres swap of prospects for A-Gonz was a very reasonable deal for both sides. Gonzalez was going to leave San Diego after this year anyway, so it made sense for them not to MikeRizzo this situation (see: Nationals / Adam Dunn). I don't understand holding on to Heath Bell though. If you are playing for the future - and by trading Gonzalez it is clear they are - then go all in.

Great Moments in Typo History

I really like Yahoo! Sports, but over the last few weeks, I have seen more and more of these mistakes. Not sure how it happens, but it leaves users completely in the dark.

Separated at Birth?

Baltimore Ravens' QB Joe Flacco and actor Cillian Murphy

Week 13: 11 Things I Know I Know

1- I know that Tennessee has folded, something I never thought would happen under Jeff Fisher. The Titans have now lost five straight games, including all four since claiming Randy Moss off waivers. Jacksonville deserves some credit today - especially newly minted MVP candidate Maurice Jones Drew - but Tennessee only rushed for 57 yards on the day. How can that happen when you have the league's best running back? On a related note, I'm going out on a limb and predicting Chris Johnson won't even reach half of his 2,500 yard goal (he's at 1,026 with four games to play). Two games against Indianapolis' swiss cheese running defense could hurt me, but we'll see.

 

2- I know that during the Giants-Redskins game referee Walt Coleman said that "Denver" would be charged with a timeout as a result of an unsuccessful challenge. It's only been three years since Mike Shannahan coached in Denver. It was the highlight of an otherwise forgettable game fans in New York were stuck watching for three hours.

 

3- I know losing to Joke Delhomme at home is simply inexcusable for a team claiming to be a playoff contender. It was nice knowing you this year, Miami. Gambling note: The Dolphins have alternated wins and losses for their last nine games. Take heed next week before betting on the Jets.

 

4- I know the Cowboys and Vikings waited too long to make coaching moves. These two teams look have great since disposing of Wade Phillips and Brad Childress, respectively. IS this finally the end of the Brett Favre era? We can only hope.

 

5- I know Tampa Bay blew a golden opportunity on Sunday to gain the respect of the entire NFL. First, they decide to don the creamiscle-orange jerseys instilling fear in precisely no one. Then, they blow a 10-point fourth quarter lead at home against the conference-leading Falcons. This was Tampa's most meaningful game since 2007, and they looked shaky at best.

 

6- I know the Chargers had better take care of business next week against the Chiefs if they have any intention of playing meaningful January football this season. After an embarrassing home loss to Oakland - in a game they were 13-point favorites - they are two games behind Kansas City and tied with Oakland for second place on the division. However, they have lost all three games to those two teams this season meaning they lose all tiebreakers if it comes to that.

 

7- I know Marvin Lewis should be the next coach fired. His team is immature and undisciplined. Prime example: Saints have the ball at the Cincinnati seven, fourth and two with under a minute to play, Bengals lead by three. Drew Brees comes to the line of scrimmage with one goal, drawing the defense offsides. Did it work? Of course it did. It was the Bengals. First down. Brees connected with Marques Colston on the go-ahead score on the next play. Unacceptable.

 

8- I know Peyton Manning will not make the playoffs this season. The Colts' defense has been abysmal, and the offense has given away 28 points in the last two weeks on interceptions returned for touchdowns. You can't win like that. Peyton's arm and 1970's-style elbow pad look incredibly weak.

 

9- I know the St. Louis Rams are heading to the playoffs. I have been on the bandwagon since Week One, and despite all of the ups and downs, it will all be worth it. Sam Bradford has been the answer to all the prayers originating in Missouri.

 

10- I know Chris Collinsworth is the best color analyst in the game. A great example, in tonight's Steelers-Ravens game he called Bryant McFaddenn's performance "terrible so far." Few have the courage to call it like they see it. The Collinsworth-Al Michaels combo is hard to beat. [Thank God Heath Miller is not paralyzed. That was the cheapest of cheap shots.]

 

11- I know the Jets will upset the Patriots tomorrow night, 27-23. New York consistently plays well on the road and they always play New England tough. The two teams are tip-toeing into the game, not wanting to upset the other. When that happens, the tougher team wins, and I think the Jets are a better all-around team than the Patriots.